The Four Tests are failed aren't they?

[PrincessNutNuts]

1. The vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Is it going to plan?

The plan was that the vaccine was rolled out evenly across the country by descending age groups with a 12 week gap between doses.

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

Things have gone off plan a bit haven't they?

2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment.

Does it? What evidence do we have that they do that in cases of variant B1.617.2? (Indian)

How do we know that where cases of variant B1.617.2 rise, hospitalisations and deaths don't?

Maybe there's just a time lag as there always was.

Hospital admissions in Bolton are back to March levels.

3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions.

Infection rates in Bolton have gone up 28% in 48 hours.

Sewage analysis indicates that vaccine surge and testing surge is now needed in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside as well as Glasgow and Moray.

4. New variants do not change the risk of lifting restrictions.

B1.617.2 (Indian) has spread to 86 locations in the U.K. in about a month.

Scientists believe it is between 50% and 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant that has kept us in restrictions for 8 months and still killed 80,000 people.

What do you think?

Are the four tests for opening up met?

@BelleBlueBell

Are the four tests for opening up met?

I don't understand your tense, are you meaning the 17th May relaxation of restrictions?

We can't go back in time and re-decide with what was then future information even if your observations were true and I'm not sure about that at all.

1. was definitely failed weeks ago. The new variant was found in 6 places, then 20, then 48, then 86, and that's only from April 3rd to May 8th.

But, going forward...

People are still wondering if the June 21st reopening will go ahead.

Whether or not the tests are passed or failed now could give people a heads up.

@PrincessNutNuts

Or they are just vaccinating quicker or working more hours or getting more staff ?

Your post does not make sense .

Also just because the variant is spreading as long as it does not significantly increase hospital admissions and death then we should be ok ?

Even if more younger people get it as long as. They are not seriously ill then the figures will still be acceptable.

It's my understanding that in Bolton and Blackburn anyone over 16 can book a jab if They've done some shopping for their Gran or mowed her lawn they can be vaxxed under the unpaid carer rule. And they are being encouraged to do so

Unpaid careers have been able to book on the NHS site for a long time. I have some 40 friends who got theirs early this way. It was removed as people were jumping the queue.

On any case, this is a good thing isn’t it?

Maybe there's just a time lag as there always was.

That’s pure speculation for one.

OP you've been called out numerous times for your doom mongering posts. Give it a rest FFS.

@Sunshinegirl82

No, they don't have a "high confidence" that it is 50% more transmissible. They said it was a "realistic possibility" that it could be as much as 50% more transmissible. "Realistic Possibility is a defined terms which means they are less that 50% certain.

Neil Fergusson has said recently that more recent data suggested it might not be as transmissible as originally feared. No one knows for sure yet, it's too early.

On your first point, fair enough.

But also, any degree more transmissible than the variant that has kept us in restrictions for 8 months and killed 80,000 people in a new variant with unknown immunity escape properties is bad - isn't it?

On your second.

All the more reason not to have opened up on Monday then?

There was alarm from the governments scientific advisors four weeks ago

news.sky.com/story/vaccine-surge-in-covid-hotspots-may-not-stop-indian-variant-spread-scientists-warn-pm-12310347

You are speculating hugely!

The gov is gathering more evidence.

All the more reason not to have opened up on Monday then?

The conditions were met that’s why it went ahead.

We don’t know what the lag will bring either way. Scientists are saying this (this morning for example Ferguson).

We just don’t know yet. You seem to want delay?

Also, and maybe it is just the way the op is drafted, but if feels like you are actually enjoying the prospect of things potentially going off course.

No surprise who's posted this doom mongering speculation.

It might be, or it might have minimal impact. You know that OP because you've been posting graphs left, right and centre showing the modelling. If it is 5% more transmissible that is unlikely to make much of an impact at all.

Well sensibly I retained my tin-foil hat and although people look at me in the shops at least I know I'll be alright.

I don't know why everybody doesn't do this. It's easy,it's cheap, and it doesn't need to be stored at minus 70 degrees (luckily as my freezer only goes down to minus 18.)

It's being so cheerful that keeps you going isn't it?

Assuming you are one of the people thriving on this situation and want it to continue ad infinitum- just thankful I don't know anyone like you in real life as everyone I know is keen to crack on, take their own risks as adults and get on with life

Oh god. OP you need to get out more.

Yawn.

@SpnBaby1967

Bloody hell, get yourself a hobby that isnt just scaremongering like some weirdo obsessive.

Glad it's not just me.

What do you actually hope to achieve by all of this?

People thinking the Government have handled it badly because like it or not they currently in a position where if we called a GE they would get a bigger majority than they did in December 2019. (I am not by the way a fan I have never and will never vote for them)

People panicking about the current situation by posting inflamatory statements without ever posting any links to (for example it is looking increasingly likely it not that high)

You are so blinkered by COVID you never look at the real implications of not opening on Monday. And you never actually say what you want to happen.

Although you do claim that you dont post that much - your posting history and the fact that I suspect the majority of people upon opening this expected to see your name.

@Pootle40

Oh god. OP you need to get out more.

in the last few months over 500 posts about covid- an MN only shows 500-there could be thousands

All negative
Is the op being paid by an extremist group ?
Part of a doomsday cult?

I have nothing to add, just think it's hilarious that op hasn't responded to anyone who's called her a doom monger 🤣 I'm assuming she's well known!