The Four Tests are failed aren't they?

[PrincessNutNuts]

1. The vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Is it going to plan?

The plan was that the vaccine was rolled out evenly across the country by descending age groups with a 12 week gap between doses.

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

Things have gone off plan a bit haven't they?

2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment.

Does it? What evidence do we have that they do that in cases of variant B1.617.2? (Indian)

How do we know that where cases of variant B1.617.2 rise, hospitalisations and deaths don't?

Maybe there's just a time lag as there always was.

Hospital admissions in Bolton are back to March levels.

3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions.

Infection rates in Bolton have gone up 28% in 48 hours.

Sewage analysis indicates that vaccine surge and testing surge is now needed in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside as well as Glasgow and Moray.

4. New variants do not change the risk of lifting restrictions.

B1.617.2 (Indian) has spread to 86 locations in the U.K. in about a month.

Scientists believe it is between 50% and 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant that has kept us in restrictions for 8 months and still killed 80,000 people.

What do you think?

Are the four tests for opening up met?

I think you’re going to need to name change op after this!

I think posting style would give any name change away.

@PrincessNutNuts

1. The vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Is it going to plan?

The plan was that the vaccine was rolled out evenly across the country by descending age groups with a 12 week gap between doses.

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

Things have gone off plan a bit haven't they?

2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment.

Does it? What evidence do we have that they do that in cases of variant B1.617.2? (Indian)

How do we know that where cases of variant B1.617.2 rise, hospitalisations and deaths don't?

Maybe there's just a time lag as there always was.

Hospital admissions in Bolton are back to March levels.

3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions.

Infection rates in Bolton have gone up 28% in 48 hours.

Sewage analysis indicates that vaccine surge and testing surge is now needed in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside as well as Glasgow and Moray.

4. New variants do not change the risk of lifting restrictions.

B1.617.2 (Indian) has spread to 86 locations in the U.K. in about a month.

Scientists believe it is between 50% and 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant that has kept us in restrictions for 8 months and still killed 80,000 people.

What do you think?

Are the four tests for opening up met?

I can only assume your pre-covid life was so unpleasant that you never want this pandemic to end? I'm right aren't I?

Is it political? It’s really hard to understand what’s behind this. Is it anxiety, politics, lack of understanding and ability to grasp it, easy reacting to scare mongering, a desire to continue in lockdown because it’s better for the op, enjoying the drama of it, attention seeking and this gives them a platform, an enjoyment of worrying people. it’s really hard to determine what’s causing it.

It isnt here there is no clear agenda apart from a clear hatred of the government

There’s the same desire to spread panic and provoke already anxious posters.

Though Climbdad made out that he was some kind of expert (at least initially) and did convince a lot of people, though his arguments stood up to little scrutiny.

I think you’re going to need to name change op after this!

Plenty of that happening already, no?

The ClimbDad person seemed to me to be a union plant, determined to keep schools closed not for the welfare of staff but for political purposes.

I think some posters are one and the same, particularly the “scared about the vaccine” ones who always start new threads and have remarkably similar turns of phrase. And they start of all faux ignorance and three posts later are linking to studies and stats.

I am anxious and read every bad news post so I don’t get false hope. But this OP sounds gleeful about any bad news and that is not just poor form but a bit disturbing.

They also tend to post them come back intermittently with another graph or piece of spurious new info just to keep things going.

Can the OP be reported? Scare mongering, stating things as fact when they aren't.

@Sparklingbrook

I think posting style would give any name change away.

The obsession with Warwick uni 'modelling' did it for me.

@CottageGardener

Can the OP be reported? Scare mongering, stating things as fact when they aren't.

I guess so. I suppose MNHQ would have to decide whether starting thread after scaremongering thread with dubious ‘facts’ breaks talk guidelines though.

Oh yes @IcedPurple it’s always about the ‘modelling’.

The obsession with Warwick uni 'modelling' did it for me.

Yup

I suppose MNHQ would have to decide whether starting thread after scaremongering thread with dubious ‘facts’ breaks talk guidelines though.

Sadly there are a lot of threads with easily verifiably incorrect stuff that have been allowed to stand. Getting rid of fake news on the site doesn’t seem to be covered by talk guidelines.

@Sparklingbrook

Oh yes *@IcedPurple* it’s always about the ‘modelling’.

And of course only the most absolutely pessimistic 'models' are permitted, even when the 'modellers' have been wrong so many times before.

Yes true about the name changes!

Wonder what happened to climbdad

Yawn.

I had enough of "modeling" after the Nial Ferguson fiasco last year.

Enjoy spending the next few years in that isolation tank of yours, OP.

Wonder what happened to climbdad

I expect his contract ended

Let's get some perspective here. There were 18 people in hospital in Bolton yesterday, 3 of which are on ventilation. We have already been told that most of the Bolton hospital admissions have been from people who are unvaccinated, with a few that have only had one vaccine. This is still small numbers. The vaccine is working and the roll out is continuing as planned. I'm 35 and had my first on Tues via GP invite. I got my other invite from NHSVaccines yesterday.
Please stop scaremongering. It's no good for anyone.

@TheKeatingFive

Do you think he was some kind of union plant then on Mumsnet? Didn’t he claim to know when some magical treatment was coming?

My 19 year old was is due to have her 2ND DOSE today as an unpaid carer to her grandparents. It's not specific to Bolton.

Do you think he was some kind of union plant then on Mumsnet?

I think that’s very likely. He gave some startlingly specific advice to a teacher about her contract on one of the education threads. Way to blow your cover

Didn’t he claim to know when some magical treatment was coming?

Yeah he says he was working on some sort of drug therapy, I think. But while he talked a good talk, there were glaring omissions that made it obvious he hadn’t a clue what he was talking about (hadn’t heard of T cells for example).

He played a good game though, I’ll give him that.

@TheKeatingFive He did talk a good game.

Just shows you the perceived power of the nest of vipers

Yes very interesting