Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

More than a thousand pupils isolating after 15 schools see positive Covid tests https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/more-thousand-pupils-isolating-after-18893706

15 schools affected already and they've only been back 3 days! This is worse than I thought it would be so soon

On a thread of facts that's the most accurate one I've seen so far

Visual representations are my forte.

Gosh I had to read that twice Bercows

@Bercows

More than a thousand pupils isolating after 15 schools see positive Covid tests [[https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/more-thousand-pupils-isolating-after-18893706]]

15 schools affected already and they've only been back 3 days! This is worse than I thought it would be so soon

But that’s not so read in schools surely? So it’s just displacing what would have happened in homes to school stats.

Although a few cases where inset day meant staff did not SD. That was top advice

God not sure what I was saying there. Oh I know - not spreading in schools

@Bercows

More than a thousand pupils isolating after 15 schools see positive Covid tests [[https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/more-thousand-pupils-isolating-after-18893706]]

15 schools affected already and they've only been back 3 days! This is worse than I thought it would be so soon

I'm just waiting to see the hoops they're going to jump through to explain that the children can't possibly be passing it on and it must be going child to adult to adult to child.

Tbf here they must have all caught it before they were back at school, but it seems ridiculous that if an area is on lockdown that the schools just carry on as normal.

It’s too early for this to be child to child at school. For most schools

@MarshaBradyo

It’s too early for this to be child to child at school. For most schools

I suppose it depends when they go back. Round here it was either thurs/fri last week or today

I agree. Most of these kids and staff already had it before they went back

Starting to feel slightly nervous about the figures now - definitely not a blip :( thanks for the calm wisdom here lots of my friends are borderline hysterical now

@AnyFucker

I think we are due another press conference and force the general public to look at that graph of rising cases in Europe.

The shape of it is much the same as it was in March. The UK is going to follow Spain and France right into exponential growth of cases if they do not change their behaviour right now

Totally agree. They need to lay it down straight.

@NeurotrashWarrior

Glad that's finally in the BMJ.

It's nigh impossible to SD in my sen primary.

Staff are trying as much as humanly possible.

Our hygiene measures are through the roof and we've limited how long staff who aren't bubbled are in contact with others for. Limits to numbers of staff in communal rooms etc.

My SEN KS3/4 class don't do SD.

Lovely bunch and adore them but feelings mutual so today they were so glad to see us they were close!

Think the advantage is that most of ours also don't go out outside of school so you would think it would be their family members catching it that causes isolation rather than them.

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

Starting to feel slightly nervous about the figures now - definitely not a blip :( thanks for the calm wisdom here lots of my friends are borderline hysterical now

People on school run mustn’t be on here as a few comments on how it’s going away now

Sorry explained that badly. Meant my pupils are likely to be isolating because family have symptoms and therefore not being it in rather than be an index case in their household because a number of ours don't get out much and don't do crowded places.

Agree it’s time for a we are at a critical time press conference

But they need people to go to work

Tough one!

Oh, it's making me so cross marsha that staff won't stay away from each other!!! But do they in any workplace?

Piggy I’m at home but Dh work does! They have these brilliant bump things that tell you when you get too close and give one to clients as they come in

The incidence of positive cases is very uneven across the country so it doesn't make much sense to give blanket figures of 20 in 100k infected, as there were over 200 cases reported in Birmingham but only 5 other areas with more than 50 cases (dating back to 31/08). And only a handful in the long tail of LAs. I guess the school cases are mostly in areas so far where the incidence is high in the community so the question will be whether tightening of local restrictions triggers blanket school closures in LAs or MSOAs. It is certainly a challenging picture.

I have worked all the way through

We have completely changed our practices. Some aspects are not perfect and some things are nigh on impossible. But we try our best. It's quite miserable at times too (eating lunch alone is a bit shit, eg)

Full lockdown is not viable but there are ways to reduce transmission if people had the knowledge and the will to do it

Lockdown now announced in Caerphilly. First in Wales.

@Yddraigoldragon

Lockdown now announced in Caerphilly. First in Wales.

Just read on this. So businesses not closed. Not sure what’s happening with schools

I agree a good time for a press conference. We should take advantage of the fact that our upward slope isn’t hitting in the middle of the summer, with travel and many people meeting up in large groups regardless. It should be easier to get on with SD through to the end of this thing - and we must do so to give the children a chance of their education . I’m pretty much planning a hermit existence for the next few months

My area has had 5 cases this week. Last week the same and week before 9.
3 weeks prior to this we had none!

I would say compliance must play a part as well as lifestyle etc.

I was worried when we went from none to 9 but it seems to have been for a grip of. That's probably why you get 1/2 cases a day then none for a few days. They must be isolating and the other things are working too?

Looking at the map there are lockdowns in areas but when broken into MSOA the smaller areas have areas in between them that are also grey. Iyswim? So transmission does appear to be in communities rather than spread nationally.

Except the upward slope, caused mainly by young people, is aligning with universities and colleges starting up again, so mass movement of young people around the country.

15 schools shut doesn't really sound like a lot to me tbh - what's that 1 school in 1,000? How many schools are there in the UK?

I think we'll need to get used up classes being sent home, and occasional school closures. It'll just be part of life over the next 6 months at least. Better than all the schools shutting down. I hope (and think) they'll shut pubs rather than schools if they need to. But test, test, test, has to be the only way out of this.

@itsgettingweird my area is very similar and I’ve had the same thoughts. I wonder if diff councils are handling things differently which feeds into why some areas are worse. Ours went up quite a lot one week but then back down again.