Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I'd assume they can take 375k swabs a day, but they can't actually analyse and process more than 227k.

In other words capacity isn't 375k at all...

The positive news again is that deaths are so far showing no sign of increasing, despite the fact that cases have been rising for the last 6 weeks or so.

This does offer hope that if transmission can be mostly restricted to young people, we needn’t worry about the rise in case numbers.

Thank you Bercows, honestly I spend alot of time as next of kin with relative with dementia, I become more and more convinced I'm getting dementia if I forget something or can't work something out. I had a horrible feeling I was going to get laughed at. I need to get something done about my dementia paranoia.

titchy I wondered that but then I thought why don't the people interviewing them ask them that. I think it was Gove this morning bragging about capacity and interviewer didn't challenge it. It is beyond me.

I'm a bit sceptical that the new rules will make much difference in practice. If there can be any number of people drinking in bars/pubs, and six people from six different households can meet indoors as well as outdoors, I very much doubt it will help bring the numbers down significantly if at all. Police just won't have the resources to enforce it anyway.

@fadingfast

I'm a bit sceptical that the new rules will make much difference in practice. If there can be any number of people drinking in bars/pubs, and six people from six different households can meet indoors as well as outdoors, I very much doubt it will help bring the numbers down significantly if at all. Police just won't have the resources to enforce it anyway.

I agree with you. Here in wales the 6 people have to be from the same extended household which makes more sense. If 6 friends want to go for a meal together they should in theory be socially distancing at the table which clearly isn’t possible (or happening)

Police officers association has today stated that they do not have capacity....

Someone kindly gave a link to hospital admissions but I can’t find it? Is it somewhere on the pinned post? Please if anyone knows it can they repost?

And we’re already running out of thread ....

Thanks

Yep, the test capacity looks like a fantasy number, plucked out of Hancock's rear anatomy
The system is struggling to handle the current number of tests

Hopefully, genuine capacity will be increased before winter

The government stated there is no extra money for those "COVID marshalls"
and I doubt if many LGAs have either the money or the enthusiasm to fund them,

in which case a marshall might be a rara avis

375k capacity covers all pillars (including antibody testing and pillar 4).

The daily capacity for pillars 1 and 2 is 243k (according to the dashboard).

Has there been a new study from ICL on symptoms/symptoms in children?

Friend who couldn't get a test, rang COVID 119 hotline.

Doctor spoke to them and asked them to do a smell test and as their DC could smell hot chocolate said it was just a cold and no need to test or isolate.

I thought this was worrying since the last report I read said only 25% of people have issues with taste and smell. Apparently the doctor said new info had been released from ICL today...?

@whatsnext2

Someone kindly gave a link to hospital admissions but I can’t find it? Is it somewhere on the pinned post? Please if anyone knows it can they repost?

And we’re already running out of thread ....

Thanks

... The dash has admissions for NHS regions: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=East%20of%20England

I can't find a more granular link to LAs, but I can add it to the next OP if someone posts it quickly

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy

Unbelievable they can propose Covid moonshot but not give nurses decent pay rise.

Hospital admissions are increasing in Greater Manchester.

Unfortunately, the detailed information on admissions/discharges/patients in hospitals is only updated monthly. Here is the link for England:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Oh I have that link, but I don't plan to add monthly data to the OP

➡️ NEW thread: 📉 📊

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4021693-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-18?watched=1

wintertravel the govt site I'm looking at says tests processed for today are 227,465 for all pillars. The pillar 1 and 2 tests are 205,659 so still getting on for 40,000 tests not done in pillar 1 and 2 so why can't they cope if it is within capacity? If they can only do 205,659 pillar 1 and 2 tests then surely that is the capacity. It is here coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing

@wheresmymojo

Has there been a new study from ICL on symptoms/symptoms in children?

Friend who couldn't get a test, rang COVID 119 hotline.

Doctor spoke to them and asked them to do a smell test and as their DC could smell hot chocolate said it was just a cold and no need to test or isolate.

I thought this was worrying since the last report I read said only 25% of people have issues with taste and smell. Apparently the doctor said new info had been released from ICL today...?

That sounds a bit unclincal. I can't see any recent research release. And surely "being able to smell hot chocolate" isn't a definitive proof of "non-Covidity"? One thing, in a child?

And there's nothing later than 27 July on their research/tools pages

The pillar 1 and 2 tests are 205,659 so still getting on for 40,000 tests not done in pillar 1 and 2 so why can't they cope if it is within capacity?

The full capacity number is the theoretical maximum assuming all laboratories and test sites are operating with zero inefficiencies (e.g. no staff are on holidays), no tests get wasted and, geographically, supply of tests matches demand.

In practice, running at full or nearly full capacity is next to impossible. I would expect the actual utilisation ratio to be lower than 100%. We seem to be around 85% which is actually pretty good from the efficiency standpoint (i.e. we are not wasting capacity when demand for testing is high).

I spoke to 2 different Covid nurses when DS3 had symptoms (one the 'normal' NHS one, one via Occ Health) and got 2 differing bits of advice. One said get him tested, the other felt there was no need

I am a HCP myself. If I am confused, what's it like for everybody else? I actually don't know whether to laugh or cry.

wintertravel it isn't the real capacity then is it, we don't need to know a theoretical capacity we need to know what they can actually do. Obviously people are going to have holidays, a percentage are going to be sick or whatever, they should allow for that.

@Pacif1cDogwood

I spoke to 2 different Covid nurses when DS3 had symptoms (one the 'normal' NHS one, one via Occ Health) and got 2 differing bits of advice. One said get him tested, the other felt there was no need

I am a HCP myself. If I am confused, what's it like for everybody else? I actually don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Was it the OH one that told you to get him tested or the NHS one?