Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

7-day rolling case averages for Europe:

Germany and maybe Italy seem to have levelled off
Spain, France in sharp exponential growth
UK cases rises

Interesting graph.

Does anyone know what’s happening with French / Spanish schools? Are they closing a lot individually

That graph gives perspective that the UK situation is some weeks behind France & Spain,
with still the means to cut off exponential growth if SD is followed more closely

@BigChocFrenzy

That graph gives perspective that the UK situation is some weeks behind France & Spain, with still the means to cut off exponential growth if SD is followed more closely

Yep - good luck to us with that! The level of Covid-denial on social media is astounding. What with that and the latest Brexit bullshit, I feel like hiding under a rock for the next six months

Have been following this thread since the beginning but not posted before. It is very informative so thanks everyone.
Regarding difficulty getting tested this is anecdotal but someone has posted on local Facebook group that although she couldn’t book a local test she took a chance and went to our local drive through test centre in North London. It was very quiet. No queue. They said they still had 74 spaces for that day and were more than happy to test her. Logged all her details and swabbed her. Asked her to spread the word (which she did on the local Facebook groups) that they had free slots every day. Again anecdotally I know 2 other people who did this at the same centre a couple of months ago and got tested so no idea what is going on with the computer booking system.

Interesting round up on Pm radio 4 asking PHE people from around the country about what the demographic of cases are in their area.

So far, mostly young age groups.

I can unhappily report that there is ZERO social distancing in schools. Lots of usual meetings, staff gossiping over the copier, two staff sat shoulder to shoulder in an assembly, kids walking right up to staff to ask questions, boys playfighting and hugging, corridors like mosh pits, no masks on buses.

This is going to go well!!

@BigChocFrenzy

7-day rolling case averages for Europe:

Germany and maybe Italy seem to have levelled off
Spain, France in sharp exponential growth
UK cases rises

Does anyone why Spain and France are so markedly different to Germany and Italy?

Does anyone why Spain and France are so markedly different to Germany and Italy?

Looking at the graph, it could be too early to be confident it won’t follow a similar trajectory to France and Spain...

Italy that is

@cathyandclare

Please excuse the Weds 26th mentions, it should be 2nd. Fat fingers!!!

I was going to say it’s changed more than that cos last night the 79 was for the 2nd.

I’d only noticed it because up until then it’s been between 50-60 and it was a bit of an increase. Although not massive and possibly just a one off.

Weren't we 2 weeks behind Spain and France in March? I doubt any lessons have been learned.

I noticed a school bus that passed me the other day and no one on the top deck had masks on but then dd1 says only half the kids at school wear masks in the corridors so it's no surprise. I'm quite glad we are at home now. I took them out of school a week before lockdown in March as I felt nothing was being done to protect us. Funny how the rates went up after half term and now it's after the summer holidays and oh look!

@NeurotrashWarrior

••• •••

On a thread of facts that's the most accurate one I've seen so far

Thanks for new thread BCF and the graph.

It's going to be so much harder for me to keep up now I'm back at work FT, ds started college and his swim training back up to nearly full (5 times a week so far!)

But I like to try and have a skim read and then read last few posts to see where we are at.

Math Hancock was quite concerned this morning on radio.
He's being honest that's things look worrying.

Christ, if he's worried, then the general public should be extremely worried.

looking at daily admissions def seems to have gone up in north west. many days in August were single figures. Recent days are averaging 20 or so. worrying to see how this translates into deaths further down the line.

I've got 2948 coming up for cases today. So much for hoping yesterday was a blip.

@Frazzled2207 yep. Patients IN hospital has gone from a low of 77 on 26/8 to 164 today.... obv that was the low not the rolling average but still it shows which way it's going

I think we are due another press conference and force the general public to look at that graph of rising cases in Europe.

The shape of it is much the same as it was in March. The UK is going to follow Spain and France right into exponential growth of cases if they do not change their behaviour right now

@Witchend

I've got 2948 coming up for cases today. So much for hoping yesterday was a blip.

Yes especially as Mondays figures are normally low following the weekend, Tuesdays figures will be high then :(

@Jenasaurus I thought that Mondays are often low, but they aren't always. I was trying to be a teenie bit optimistic. (but not managing much!)

Most common Covid symptoms in children are fever, gastrointestinal and headache.

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3484

@Piggywaspushed

I can unhappily report that there is ZERO social distancing in schools. Lots of usual meetings, staff gossiping over the copier, two staff sat shoulder to shoulder in an assembly, kids walking right up to staff to ask questions, boys playfighting and hugging, corridors like mosh pits, no masks on buses.

This is going to go well!!

I can concur with this.

And unfortunately the DfE guidance, which schools are obliged to follow (although a few seem not to be), is to only send home, isolate and test for one of the three "main" symptoms.

Glad that's finally in the BMJ.

It's nigh impossible to SD in my sen primary.

Staff are trying as much as humanly possible.

Our hygiene measures are through the roof and we've limited how long staff who aren't bubbled are in contact with others for. Limits to numbers of staff in communal rooms etc.