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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

979 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2020 22:04

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
60
SistemaAddict · 07/09/2020 08:07

I'm keeping them all off. I've starting coughing now. My chest has been particularly tight since yesterday. Dd1 is furious with me. She's only been back one day.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 07/09/2020 08:09

The test positivity rate seems to have been rising throughout August. I think it was something like 224 tests per confirmed case at the start and 157 per confirmed by the end.

Is there a chance that this huge rise yesterday is in part due to a catch-up with the backlog they seem to have had last week?

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 07/09/2020 08:11

It sounds like it would be worth getting you and DS tested, Bercows.

Morfin · 07/09/2020 08:18

Is there a chart which plots the average time from diagnosis to hospital to recovery or death? For those that need it, I'm not implying that is the normal time line. Also is there an average amount of days sick?

BighouseLittlemouse · 07/09/2020 08:23

@Bercows I’m in exactly the same position with my DS 8.

No temp or cough but you in the night with sore throat and blocked nose.

I am wfh so will keep him off as imagine he doesn’t feel brilliant with lack of sleep - but also double checking myself as to whether I’m being over cautious. Oddly I am someone who tends more to keeping them off - but school feels like such a precious commodity now.

It’s going to be a long autumn ad winter. The stats on school attendance will be interesting as they start to come through.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 07/09/2020 08:35

I don’t know about a chart but the figure I’ve seen is about 7 days from symptom onset to admission. And I think the ICNARC reports usually have from admission to critical care as around 2 days.

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/42ceb4d2-3dd3-ea11-9128-00505601089b

www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/03/clinical-management-of-persons-admitted-to-hospita-v1-19-march-2020.pdf

I don’t know about recovery or death. There might be a figure in either of those reports. I’m not sure the UK (or England) actually records the number recovered

boys3 · 07/09/2020 08:58

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

The test positivity rate seems to have been rising throughout August. I think it was something like 224 tests per confirmed case at the start and 157 per confirmed by the end.

Is there a chance that this huge rise yesterday is in part due to a catch-up with the backlog they seem to have had last week?

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

its a good first question to ask but the figures in terms of specimen date would suggest this is not the case. Of the 2576 in England added yesterday afternoon.

As per normal zero will have a specimen date of Sunday 6th itself, as that is that after the data cut off, and similarly very few (22), again as per normal, would be from the day before (Saturday 5th - they will start to appear in the figures to be published this afternoon).

So Reporting Day -2 Friday 4th Specimen date : 1119 cases

Reporting Day -3 Thursday 3rd Specimen date : 972 cases

So those two days alone almost 2100 cases out of 2576

Reporting Day -3 Wednesday 2nd Specimen date 246 cases

Reporting Day -4 Tuesday 1st September 192 cases

Those four days therefore cover 2529 cases, add the 22 from Saturday takes us from 2551 cases, leaving just 25 cases to account for.

17 had a specimen date of Monday 31st August

1 a speciment date of Sunday 30th August

37 cases various specimen dates between 1st and 29th August - the eager eyed mathmos will no doubt have spotted that these figures take us beyond 2576;

A further 59 cases with a July specimen date, but then,

June reduced by 10, May reduced by 40, April reduced by 28 and March reduced by 11

Before anyone gets too excited about cases added in July, in terms of recent reporting dates:

Yesterday added 59
Saturday reduced by 10
Friday added 10
Thursday reduced by 74
with further yo-yoing the further back you go.

boys3 · 07/09/2020 09:01

South West table that I could not post last night

plus London, and one with both North East and York& Humber

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
boys3 · 07/09/2020 09:03

East and West Mids

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
boys3 · 07/09/2020 09:04

and South East - loads of LAs - so split into two tables

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
boys3 · 07/09/2020 09:08

but at the moment cannot add the second South East table - cases per 100,000 for this set of LAs for the last seven days ranges from 0.7 to 6.5

SparkleSW · 07/09/2020 09:09

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54053618

Surely this shouldn't have gone ahead?

boys3 · 07/09/2020 09:10

@SparkleSW

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54053618

Surely this shouldn't have gone ahead?

it does make you wonder, and probably goes some way to explaining the number of cases added to Sunderland yesterday
sirfredfredgeorge · 07/09/2020 09:19

The test positivity rate seems to have been rising throughout August. I think it was something like 224 tests per confirmed case at the start and 157 per confirmed by the end

Is there any data on why people chose to have a test - in July, anyone on mumsnet or elsewhere was being encouraged to get a test for any reason at all, and I'm sure lots of people did without any symptoms of COVID just for personal reassurance. What's been increasingly happening in August though is people are being discouraged from taking a test unless actual symptoms due to the shortage.

If that is the case, you'd expect a higher positive rate as the no symptom people would be removed from the testing pool.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 07/09/2020 09:44

I don't think so because the number of tests being processed was still going up at that point. It's just that the number of positive tests was going up faster. And there seemed to be much more capacity in the system at the start of August. So it isn't like people who needed a test were being prevented from getting one by people who didn't fit the criteria getting one.

If the asymptomatic people had stopped asking for tests during August, they were more than replaced by people with symptoms of some sort of infection, even if it wasn't COVID.

Thanks boys3 that answers my question nicely.

sirfredfredgeorge · 07/09/2020 09:47

If the asymptomatic people had stopped asking for tests during August, they were more than replaced by people with symptoms of some sort of infection, even if it wasn't COVID

Or people who had been identified via track and trace or in a cluster etc. which is why I was looking for data on the reason for the test.

It's clear the prevalence is higher now of course.

QuentinWinters · 07/09/2020 10:44

Pmk

MRex · 07/09/2020 11:11

Thanks for the new thread.

I'd been disappointed with rising cases in my London borough and now see from @boys3's table that it's amongst the lowest in London.

I went to look for international travel stats. This is not just people visiting family or second homes, there has been a LOT of travel.

This dataset excludes some largely domestic-focused airports, 39993 transport flights in July: www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/UK-aviation-market/Airports/Datasets/UK-Airport-data/Airport-data-2020-07/.
From table 8 in July, excluding domestic and transit passengers we have 852936 passengers on EU flights and 290674 on non-EU flights. So 36890/day.
In August just Heathrow is up to 28,000/day. Double that by adding Manchester, Stansted Ave East Midlands. Other airports I can't find the stats

Sea passengers - I can only find an updated set of figures for June at the link below, so too early to use:
www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/sea-passenger-statistics-spas#all-uk-international-short-sea-long-sea-and-cruise-passengers

I can't locate recent real stats for Eurostar.

IloveJKRowling · 07/09/2020 11:20

@TheSunIsStillShining

I am beyond words and anger on the gov insisting that schools are safe. They don't give proof and even by layman logic they are not - at least not in their current state.
This.

My older DD can see they're not. She went back in June to individual desks and at least 1m space between and no more than 15 per class - now they're all sitting right next to at least one other and 30 per class.

The difference? The school had extra money, used outdoor space, and employed extra staff in June / July.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the June situation is safer.

It also has a knock on effect - her friends were social distancing in June, now they've started hugging 'because we're all sitting right next to each other anyway'

sirfredfredgeorge · 07/09/2020 11:39

there has been a LOT of travel

has there? It's down over 90% on the year before. Also your definitions aren't quite right, you are not removing people who change planes but never enter the country, lots of the heathrow traffic particularly would be this (because heathrow is the only airport with service to lots of places in the world at the moment) - the definition of a transit passenger you've removed is people who arrive and leave on the same plane - this is pretty rare anyway, and even more rare now.

I cannot find current stats for connecting passengers for July (ones who never enter the UK but are in the counts you reference) but Heathrow normally has over a 1/3rd and I cannot see any reason why it would be different. That would reduce the numbers of actual travellers distinctly.

It doesn't look like a LOT of travel to me?

LadyPenelope68 · 07/09/2020 11:43

@Bercows
With the raised temperature (I know it’s not high) and a stomach ache, I’d get him tested, particular since they’ve added upset stomach issues to the list of symptoms for children.

wheresmymojo · 07/09/2020 11:50

Hi all....I lurk on this thread to keep up with the latest picture - thanks so much to the regular contributors.

Just adding anecdata re: lack of tests available. Seems to be a real issue at the moment and not just in areas like around the Scots/England border.

I'm in Surrey in commuter-ville, my goddaughter went back to school last week but last night came down with something (presumably caught from school as no-one else has it and has been incubation period until last night).

Zero tests available.

Of course this means the rest of the bubble continue as normal with no isolation.

Who knows whether it's COVID or something else but if COVID then all the other kids are cracking on as normal...

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
SistemaAddict · 07/09/2020 11:51

I am ordering a test for him. Dds' school have set them work so that's good and they are busy getting on with that. Ds is quiet on the sofa.

I wonder what the stats will be like today for the UK as a whole but mainly for GM? And more importantly, what are the government going to do about it. If anything.

SistemaAddict · 07/09/2020 11:56

I've just got the currently unavailable screen too.

FATEdestiny · 07/09/2020 11:57

Following