Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Firefliess

15 schools shut doesn't really sound like a lot to me tbh - what's that 1 school in 1,000? How many schools are there in the UK?

I think we'll need to get used up classes being sent home, and occasional school closures. It'll just be part of life over the next 6 months at least. Better than all the schools shutting down. I hope (and think) they'll shut pubs rather than schools if they need to. But test, test, test, has to be the only way out of this.

About 32,000 schools

I'd agree with compliance. Our area is very low. I rarely see anyone without a facemask in shops, and on the whole people are being fairly careful.

My parents live in an area that is low, but near Blackburn. They were out just after Blackburn were put into lockdown, and met a group of they reckoned 20-30 young male cyclists. Df asked where they'd come from-Blackburn.

It's 15 schools in greater Manchester not the UK. There are other schools affected in Suffolk and Sunderland and then there's the ones in Scotland. Lewisham too I think I read.

It's interesting because my life is pretty much back to normal.

Me at school(work!). Ds at college. Da swim training. Eating out and meeting friends for drinks etc.

I think the fact I keep distance and will happily dress warm to drink outside a pub helps!
But I don't feel like my activities are risky. Everything is done with SD and mask compliance.

@Bercows

It's 15 schools in greater Manchester not the UK. There are other schools affected in Suffolk and Sunderland and then there's the ones in Scotland. Lewisham too I think I read.

My old schools have been affected in Scotland 1st days of the new term. I haven't heard of any additional cases.

I think it's too early for a great deal of under tens child to child spread within schools.

On R4 PM one phe rep said house parties among teens had been an issue, another said it was younger people out and about to more places and mixing with more people.

But the numbers don't help schools.

The problem with the secondaries is that they tend to

• be larger, can be 1000s of children with
• children coming from a wider area (so mixing risk)
• often on crowded public transport
• They tend to have siblings at a larger overall number schools and colleges, than a primary and
• mid and late teens pupils can transmit the virus pretty much like adults while
• being more independent in how they come and go and having
• hormonal desires for adventure and socialisation while

-being very fed up and frustrated right now understandably (so ,what the hell, why not live a bit)

So it is very easy to see how infections could spread from one secondary school to another, watch this space.

You omit distancing in a secondary at your peril.

Secondary pupils also tend to have older parents and teachers (who are more at risk)

@MarshaBradyo

Piggy I’m at home but Dh work does! They have these brilliant bump things that tell you when you get too close and give one to clients as they come in

Do you have a dashboard that logs the bumps and records areas of high bumpage?

My pal developed that we ribbed him mercilessly at the time and also pointed out how kids in schools would deliberately try to get high scores!

here I agree, secondaries are an entirely different issue to primary.

Just back from the gym, so for anyone else who's been away, UK stats today:

New cases 2,948 (~ yesterday's 2,988)
Patients in hospital 756, of whom 537 are in England
Patients on ventilation 69

Looking at these figures I'm glad they aren't in school at the moment. No wonder schools have been affected so badly in the area.

These all had cases in Scotland by the 23rd August. Then I gave up keeping track...
Bannerman High
St Ambrose High
St Andrews High
Caldervale High
Todholm primary
Newhill Primary School
Oakbank Primary
Kings park school
St Alberts primary
Oldmacher Academy
High Blantyre Primary

NHS have ordered ¼ million clear facemasks, to help HCPs and care workers communicate better with people with hearing loss, autism & dementia.

Restaurants near me have had 1 staff member each with a non-medical clear mask, for several weeks now
It helps a lot, for those of us with hearing disabilities

Some teachers in specialist schools have them too
Any teacher on thread who has tried them ?

Neurotrash yes it does. They are working with them so maybe it’s your mate! Or could be multiple people getting on to it.

I have just felt slightly reassured by these graphs on a twitter thread by Ed Conway that show quite clearly deaths are not in any way following cases like they did at the beginning.

twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1303035292753031171?s=21

Some teachers in specialist schools have them too
Any teacher on thread who has tried them ?

Sore point; in primary we aren't using masks but I'd really like to use these. It would be perfect.

The NHS contracted SALT were supposed to be wearing ppe; we work for far longer and closer than they do.

@MarshaBradyo

Neurotrash yes it does. They are working with them so maybe it’s your mate! Or could be multiple people getting on to it.

The company is based in the NE if it's the same one, it could have been rolled out by now though. I'm sure it was released in May or June.

Yep he said they’re in the north

Rolled out launched a while ago not sure how long though

[quote MarcelineMissouri]I have just felt slightly reassured by these graphs on a twitter thread by Ed Conway that show quite clearly deaths are not in any way following cases like they did at the beginning.

twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1303035292753031171?s=21[/quote]
....
As we've discussed before, the number of cases back in March-April were probably 30 x higher, with a likely peak in the 100,000s daily

Also the infection age is much lower now, as the elderly have not yet been infected in significant numbers

Add the improved treatments compared to peak and the v low deaths now are about what would be expected

@Piggywaspushed think it was you who said on the last thread about lincoln and all the uni students and the testing centre being out of town. Thought you might like to know they’re setting another one up for students, either in campus or in the city centre close to campus.

A child in the village school has tested positive so that’s one class who I guess are now having to isolate?

UK 7-day incidence rate to 7 September was 21.7 / 100,000
so exceeding the level at which visitors from other countries would be quarantined

The previous 7-day incidence to 31 August was 13.9 / 100,000
so there has been quite a jump

I agree with PP's re accessing tests. We've had a local shout out on fb saying there are plenty of slots and to head on down. Goodness only knows why the booking system is pointing people miles away

A test centre near uni campus is very sensible and should ideally be set up for each large Uni,

• there was concern expressed about accelerated spread via Higher Ed students, because of their numbers gathered together

England’s deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam:
“We have got to start taking this very seriously again.
If we’re not careful we’re going to have a bumpy ride, people have relaxed too much,”