Top British Corona scientist breaks lockdown rules: arrogance or knows something we dont?

[IceCreamRoro]

He is an expert on CV and broke social distancing rules.

Is he arrogant or knows something we dont?

The Scottish health minister did so earlier.

Why are they not sticking to this?

@Celan my dyslexia produces many giggles. Its like a superpower! Definitely something I can live with

I am sure many people are looking at risk and deciding they can see their dp during lockdown. It doesnt surprise me and I dont particularly judge people for it.

I do judge someone who is stupid enough to go on TV telling people to stick to the rules, while speaking someone from another household into their house.

Its the hypocrisy. I think had he, have just produced the numbers and stopped short of telling the little people what they should do, this would be a non story.

I will not be following his example and not only, alas, because I do not have a visiting lover to invite.

He has said it was an error of judgement, he has done the decent thing and withdrawn from SAGE.

How many others with authority have committed massive hypocrisies, dishonesties and incompetencies and not even apologised never mind stepped down?

The numbers followed from the R0 in a totally unexposed population.

I can't remember offhand what has highest realistic model was - 3.something? Other countries were using that figure, as well (usual range under discussion was 2.6-3.6)so I don't think it is right to haracterise him as a total outlier.

Even to take the long we're end of that, and the death stats are extremely high, and the economic damage from uncontrolled as is of course way way worse than under lockdown.

That we have reduced the R0 is a major success.

You dont need to drag conspiracy theories into it.

Arrogance and lust are enough

@Weetam68

"This man is a criminal."

"He must be arrested and charged along with the rest of his co conspirators."
What crime has he committed that he should be charged with?
Who are his"co-conspirators"?
What have they conspired to do?

Bool Nice try, but if a math teacher does something stupid 2+2 still = 4

"You realise we are all in an economically crippling lockdown because of the figures he shouted about" you think the other scientists were not listening? Do you think the scientists in all the other countries only said it was dangerous because he 'shouted about it'

Is it the breaking guidelines for a shag part people want him arrested for or the fact that the guidelines exist and (insert conspiracy theory here)?

If he believed the advice he had given he wouldn't have gone round for a shag. He gave the advice! There's insufficient evidence of reinfection it's far too early to get the full picture, and it's a disease that drags on he could still have in and be passing it on. I'm absolutely more likely to break lockdown over this story. It's reprehensible.

"If he really believed in the figures he was spouting over the media surely he wouldn't have done it?" have none of you seen a doctor who smokes or one that is overweight? People ignore their own sound advice all the time.

In this case he had to go as he has encouraged others who wanted to go out and just needed an excuse so they didn't look so stupid.

@GrumpiestCat Leaving aside Prof Knockdown and his wandering willy, couldn't you have assessed the risk for yourself before this news came out?

I assessed the risk of seeing my DP as being less than the risk of catching something in Tesco. I also assess the risk of a daily trip to Tesco as also being extremely minimal, FWIW. I would assess the risk of travelling on a crowded tube train as one I would rather not take my chances with, unless I had to.

I am not sure I needed anyone else to work these things out for me, though.

but if a math teacher does something stupid 2+2 still = 4

But thats not even anywhere near the same thing. If a teacher does something ridiculous, then it impacts their career and their reputation.

His numbers are sketchy, because they are. And they have been in the past. Massively inflated. Oddly, these scare tactics get him air time. Not a coincidence.

He isnt discussing facts. He is expressing his opinion based on his figures that peolle must abide by the guidelines. But then decided he didn't need to. Because of some untested theory he has.

Its not difficult to understand. You pubilcally tell people to abide by the guidelines and then don't do it yourself, you look like a tit. You look like you think you are above the guidelines. It impacts your professionalism and reputation.

Of course he shouldnt be arrested. I think the poster that said that was sarcastic.

OP even his worst case scenario put the death rate at, what, 0.0012%?

People like him are ignoring it partly because they think they won’t get caught but also, it’s not worth suspending normal life for this.

He really needs to suffer some consequences.

If he believed the advice he had given he wouldn't have gone round for a shag

The advice he gave was at a time when the R-number was not fully established, and considerably higher than it is now.

That we have been successful in avoiding the sort of exponential growth he predicted, does not in itself invalidate the prediction. China saw exponential growth just before it locked down. It was not an unrealistic scenario

He clearly sees himself as someone who makes the rules but doesn't have to abide by them, a high ranking person with special privileges who can do as he pleases

Have none of you seen a doctor who smokes
This is a salient point and said Dr would appear hypocritical, however, generally we are advised to not smoke or not be overweight in order to preserve our own health, we are not told that we should refrain from smoking or or overeating for the good of the population as a whole.
On the other hand the advice to 'stay home, save lives' whilst it is in part to preserve the health of the individual who is staying home it is also something that we are being asked to do as a collective, for the good of society as a whole.
As a society we are being asked to pull together for the good of society as a whole, I think this man's actions tell us that he sees himself as separate from and above 'the common person'.
Or maybe it was just a case of thinking with his dick🍆😶

09:24marinintheuk

"Lets look at Prof. Neil Ferguson previous predictions:-"
"Mad Cow Disease 50K to 150K prediction of deaths - 178 actual deaths."
Because the advice was followed. If we had not took on board the advice regarding sheep and BJD had have jumped into the sheep population, his prediction could have been true. For that time period he recommended not eating the innards of sheep or feeding them to other animals. No great hardship, but would stop the possibility of another zoonotic disease. I had many arguments with my Mother over this, so I remember it well.

We can't leave things to chance and boo hoo over it later, when it's us that have lost family members.

He thought that there was a big chance that he was immune. He took the chance. I do wonder who they were grassed up by, because it's known that her Husband had CV symptoms at the time.

I don't think that any of the fines issued should stand. I think the Kinnock's should be apologised to. People shouldn't have to have family members die of old age and usual conditions that cause death and they haven't been able to show them their newborn (through a window), or wish them a happy birthday.

I'd be interested to hear what offence people think he should be charged with. His visiting partner is the one who's potentially broken the lockdown rules.

If we had not took on board the advice regarding sheep and BJD had have jumped into the sheep population,

I think you are a bit confused. The disease is CJD and at the time it was assuming that it was going sheep>cow>human (although some now say that it was a spontaneous prion disease in cattle and sheep had nothing to do with it). The disease has a long incubation period, so any of his policy recommendations would not have been in time to prevent a major epidemic had his predictions been correct. nvCJD did not cause huge number of cases in the UK in the end, simply because most of the population appears to be immune from this prion disease (thank God).

I don't really care if he thought he was immune. He should have followed his own recommendations for a bit to show solidarity. He only had to stop bonking the lady for a few weeks. Most people do not have access to an serological test right now (and it was thought, a while back, that a bout of CV19 did not necessarily confer immunity, although now it appears that it does).

He's had the virus. He's probably (very highly likely) immune. He put no one at risk.

So why haven't they changed the rules for everyone who's already had it? Maybe because they dont know for sure

It's just sheer arrogance OP. While the rest of the UK can't see friends/family/visit second homes, this twat decides the rules dont apply to him despite telling us if we didnt stay at home, save lives blah blah, that the virus would kill 500k people here. All the time, not sticking to his own words. No sympathy at all. Just makes me more fed up

@LastTrainEast have you seen his track record of predictions! Read the article on him in the Daily Telegraph today. His previous predictions are that 2+2 = 4,000,000

He strikes again.

Oh and by the way the scientists in other countries were listening to him! It’s why Elon Musk has publicly slammed him today.

Do people really need an expert to tell them about very basic common sense re contagion and how to reduce the spread of a deadly very infectious diseases?

For those that do, Ferguson is just one of many many experts worldwide giving the same advice. Scientist Angela Merkel is one. She's also warned against premature easing of lockdowns.

I'd be inclined to trust her opinion. She's successfully managed to bring down Germany's level of infection and keep their number of deaths low.

Germany's economy will recover quicker and better than ours as a consequence.

So far she hasn't been found in bed with someone other than her husband.

I say again. Wasn't it just amazing coincidence. The man warning us against ending our lockdown before it's safe to do so just happened to be caught by someone with his pants down.

On the same day our highest number of deaths in Europe figures came out. Excellent distraction.

We could've been ready for a safe easing of lockdown. The government has failed to spend the time since it began on getting hold of more PPE for frontline staff, accurate tests, drugs, masks for the public.

Other countries have managed it.

If the government wants to save lives and the economy, we need to extend the lockdown for a further three weeks and spend that time finally doing this. We owe our HCP and other essential workers. They're dying in disproportionate numbers thanks to the government's failure to take measures to protect them. It will be they who face the most risk if lockdown ends before we're ready.

I was reading earlier of a 39 year old mental health care worker. He's one of the many HCP dead from Covid. He leaves behind young children.

Just another couple of selfish twats putting lies, deceit and illicit sex above most other things and people in their lives.

We could've been ready for a safe easing of lockdown. The government has failed to spend the time since it began on getting hold of more PPE for frontline staff, accurate tests, drugs, masks for the public.

Other countries have managed it.

Thing is - it would have got more PPE if it could. Governments live to stay in power, cocking up like this is putting that in jeopardy. Other countries got to the supplies first. We were too slow to react, true, but, otherwise, constantly whining as if the gov deliberately sat on its hands, as teh BBC does, is tedious. And I don't think the public is interested, apparently faith in the government is very high at the mo.