Top British Corona scientist breaks lockdown rules: arrogance or knows something we dont?

[IceCreamRoro]

He is an expert on CV and broke social distancing rules.

Is he arrogant or knows something we dont?

The Scottish health minister did so earlier.

Why are they not sticking to this?

I disagree with Lumisade and others who say he hasn't discredited himself. He has. He's a top scientist, advising, but not following the rules himself.

And crying "immunity" when this has yet to be proven. How irresponsible.

He made a mistake, broke the rules, should have known better but he has been outed and resigned. I see no point in demonising him further, the man has enough egg on his face.

No doubt the man thought it was a calculated risk, he and girlfriend would have been careful and in that, not a lot different to many others who take greater risks.

I'd forgotten him already. This 'thing' gets to all of us, even those who are far more aware of dangers than most of us. We're all only human after all.

Well, do you know what I think? I think I just want to see my Dad who has late stage Parkinson's and dementia and is in a care home. Also my Mum who is over 70. But I can't.

But would you be happy possibility infecting two of your loved ones in very high risk groups? When lockdown ends I will still be VERY unsure about hugging my over 70’s parents. Maybe less so if I knew I had had it.

He’s resigned. Good. Should have a fine too.

Yes it is hypocritical but is it any different to Boris going to the countryside with Carrie a few weeks back?

I think the public shaming and the fact that we have lost him as a resource are far more appalling than the fact they flouted lockdown.

He hasn't discredited himself at all. His private life has no effect on the validity of his scientific papers that he worked on through collaborating with his whole team at Imperial

I think that his apolocolyptic predictions don't really marry up with him then flouncing around doing as he pleases. If he really believed in the figures he was spouting over the media surely he wouldn't have done it? A bit like someone coming out and saying if we eat chips loads of us will die, and then heading to the chippy.

And all to get his willy wet with someone elses wife, classy.

It's a powerful bloke thinking his dick is more important than rules, shock horror. That is frankly such standard issue behaviour that I can't muster up any surprise at all. I wouldn't necessarily assume it means he knows or thinks he knows something we don't, the more likely explanation is that a person with influence thinks they're above the law.

I think what's more interesting is why the Telegraph are only publishing this now, given that the events occurred several weeks ago. Could be an attempt to detract from the UK figures passing Italy's (please no arguments about whether you can compare or not, the point is that it's a story). Could be that the government had asked them not to but are now ok with it, or could be that the Telegraph as a pro ending lockdown paper had waited of their own volition until they thought it would most help their cause.

How long did The Telegraph sit on the story? Boris has constantly flouted advice without these type of headlines.

It's a powerful bloke thinking his dick is more important than rules, shock horror. That is frankly such standard issue behaviour that I can't muster up any surprise at all.

Yeah, that. No conspiracy theory needed, just powerful men being their usual selfish selves. Kind of hope someone will pass the story on to Trevor Noah at The Daily Show to give him someone in addition to Trump to eviscerate.

He has behaved appallingly. Both he and his mistress are married with children. Also why be so stupid? He would know people would see and report it. Did he do it deliberately so that his lover would be forced to leave her husband when it got out?

Medically he must surely know we don't know if you are immune once you have had it too? A huge risk. i hope the sex was worth it.

'Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools'

I was told that 'rules are made for fools to follow and wise men to interpret'.

I think a lot of people are 'interpretting' the rules. He's just another one.

They knew that some people would ignore, some people would interpret and some people would apply even more stringent restrictions on themselves and their families. That's just human nature.

He's human. People do stupid things.

I don't think his lack of judgement in his sex life effects on the status of the peer reviewed papers he produced.

And he is one of many members of SAGE, so I hope there are sufficient checks and balances within the membership of the group that one person does not have undue influence.

So not worried about quality of SAGE advice.

But only a handful of SAGE scientists were known as such (until yesterday) and I think those who have the higher public profiles very much need to follow the rules. Because they should be aware of all the key points on the behavioural science aspects, and you just cannot have leaders breaking the rules like this

Those conducting secret affairs are often good at compartmentalising their lives (to an unhealthy degree) and are usually massively selfish.

He probably thought he'd not get caught

Which is what those conducting illicit affairs always think.

He says he acted in the belief that he was immune. That's quite interesting because it's either a lie to excuse his behaviour or he does know something we don't.

There were reports quite early on in the pandemic that people were getting sick twice or testing positive after testing negative and he surely must have been aware of this.

He's definitely discredited.

If he's so comfortable that those of us who have had it are immune, why doesn't he come out and say so? Arse.

It was such an utterly imbecile and reckless thing to do, even if he's totally correct about immunity, that I doubt it was arrived at after careful consideration.

Pretty daft of him. Not so much the individual risk, more the undermining of the message. Same problem with Catherine Calderwood not "Scottish Health Minister", but (worse) Chief Medical Officer.

Lets look at Prof. Neil Ferguson previous predictions:-

Mad Cow Disease 50K to 150K prediction of deaths - 178 actual deaths.

H5N1 200 Million prediction of deaths - 78 actual deaths.

Swine Flu 65K prediction - 457 actual deaths.

Would make better predictions looking at the entrails of a chicken like they did in the past.

Better to make a (peer reviewed and therefore methodologically sound) prediction that turns out to be worse that what happens than the opposite.

Because the first means that governments are more likely to take it seriously and take protective actions (which in themselves make the initial prediction wrong, because the actions change the course of the outbreak)

The second means more people will die, because the predictions will not lead to enough protective action.

I know which side I'd want the government to err on.

Bit like when the CMO stated up front that the advice to pregnant women was the part of the total advice which was most likely to look excessive in future. But he's rather be criticised for being too strict than for the theoretic additional risk to be all too true and the criticism be for not averting harm to babies

SylvanianFrenemies. You're right but the Scottish Chief Medical Officer and Ferguson resign. Robert Jenrick breaks the rules but is still out delivering the government briefings.

Scaveola, that’s interesting I thought they said the model had not been peer reviewed at the time it was quoted as evidence for lockdown but happy to be corrected, do you have a link? It’s all fascinating and I’m sure huge amounts will be written about it in the future, the benefit of hindsight and all that!

Hamstersarse - agree re ‘classic arrogant academic’ which is fine for those in ivory towers - but unfortunately Prof Ferguson’s ‘academic’ work is not just ‘academic’ in the other meaning of the word though is it - in practical terms it’s destroying lives and our economy

@Peggysgettingcrazy "Knockdown" is the best thing I've read on here in a very long time.

I have been "doing a Ferguson" and seeing my non-resident DP. I'm not sure I'd say I was in good company, as I am no fan of his - but I'm glad that what I have been doing is ok.

Better to make a (peer reviewed and therefore methodologically sound) prediction that turns out to be worse that what happens than the opposite.

Well that depends. If his predications are so widely inaccurate they cause economic disaster, people not receiving kife saving medical treatment that results its in thousands of deaths, then its not saving people.

Its simply saving a group of people dying from one thing. But causing deaths from other things.

I get your point. But his predications are so wildly inaccurate, if we had listened to him and implement lockdown on the other occasions, the poverty and death rate would be sky high.

Sometimes looking at worst case scenario and acting on that, causes more problems that the one you are trying to solve.

His numbers are just on the high side, they are ridiculous.