Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

F... and thanks OP.

@Humphriescushion Croeso! :)

Good that today's numbers were lower than expected but I'm reading nothing into it.

Someone posted an extremely factual and interesting statistical writing about Italy at end of last thread.

Well worth a read.

Thank you for the new thread!

Thanks for the new thread, I’m finding all the calm, factual discussion very helpful

Joining in - and wondering what the impact of testing NHS staff this week will mean - a jump in numbers testing positive , I suspect....

I've been reading this thread but not commenting because maths and statistics is not my strong point!

What does it mean if we're now tracking 16 days behind Italy rather than 14? Is that a good or bad thing?

Shameful placemarking post!

Following along, thanks for new thread!

Marking place. Thank you OP.

This is the beginning of the high curve.

I think it will explode until 6 April (21 days after we were told to wfh), drop a level but continue until 5 May (42 days after lockdown) as even though we locked down there are still health workers getting it.

I think we might see some loosening of restrictions then.

Thanks @Barracker

When are figures for? Will change of clocks skew things?

Guess it might just be a blip but 2 days in a row with a slight decrease in growth seems good. But I appreciate it’s a long journey.

Place marking - thanks for the thread.

I haven’t read much about our current testing capacity but I do wonder if there are delays. I think it’s possible people are dying before their test results come back.

What that means for analysis and projections I don’t know but it may be weekly totals are of more value.

Can someone please post a link to the NHS England page that lists breakdown of deaths by hospital trust?
All the media sites are listing the breakdown of deaths reported in today's figures, the source data is obviously NHS England, but I can't find the original source page.

I've noticed something that concerns me in the breakdown figures and want to understand this better.

The figures have no meaning without the background data.

Countries record data differently.

Some who have not died of CV have been recorded in those figures if they test positive after death regardless of any effects.

Perhaps looking at the normal monthly death rates and comparing any differences would be helpful?

Lombardy has nearly double the death rate than other areas normally.

@barracker here it is

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

I can't see the breakdown by hospital trust there, sorry. Am I missing something?
I'm looking for the source data to this:

Attachment fail:

Around 550 deaths? Why are they saying 800 plus in the guardian and other papers? Have i been misreading? That's from a couple of days ago (I live in Spain) todays' figures were 868 and yesterday 862. I think 550 was the day before that.

El Pais is reporting that all six autonomous communities' ICUs are at their limits.
The economy is being "hibernated" to prevent more contagion and save the health service from further pressure.

Placemarking. Thanks for the new thread Barracker, I followed the last with interest.

Thanks bird, the worldometer is saying 624 for today and plus 800 for yesterday so i was hoping for a downward trend.