Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

[Barracker]

It's just been announced on Sky news that there will be a delay in announcing today's figures. No explanation for this yet.

[Jay135]

We are two weeks behind Italy and have yet to take the actions that they have so here is no reason to doubt that we won’t be in w similar boat in two weeks.

[inselfisolationnow]

Following. Keep in mind that the announced figures are likely only around 20% of people actually affected.

[Bourdic]

Thanks for this

[Barracker]

Yes, the case figures for the UK will only represent critical cases going forwards, as only hospitalised patients are being tested.
We cannot compare these to other countries with different testing strategies.
Deaths, horribly, are a way of comparing between countries.

[effingterrified]

Bear in mind that the UK's figures going forward will be about as reliable as sticking two fingers up and guessing.

We don't know what the actual figures are as the government has decided to ban testing except for those severely ill in hospital.

Even the death figures are unreliable - there has been at least one person I've seen saying their relative died but wasn't tested until days later and was not included in the death figures.

twitter.com/JessMartinezxox/status/1238443529866805250

Plus the new policy of encouraging the over 70s to self-isolate and not phone 111 means there could be loads of elderly people just dying on their own at home and no-one would know.

They also no longer break down the death figures so we no longer know the ages or sexes of those who die or if they were in perfect health.

[Barracker]

DAILY UPDATE
MARCH 15th

Total UK cases: 1372
New UK cases:. 232*
(reflects the new reduced testing strategy)
Total UK Deaths: 35
New UK Deaths: 14

[Inkpaperstars]

@Barracker

Thanks, good thread idea.

How does our rate of increase compare to Italy when they had a similar number of cases to us in last couple of days, do you know?

[effingterrified]

Irrelevant, as Italy didn't suddenly decide to stop testing most cases.

[Barracker]

We are tracking them pretty closely about 14 days behind. Possibly at a slightly faster rate, but this becomes increasingly difficult to compare cases because we are only testing critical hospitalised cases in the UK now.

Ages and locations of fatalities not yet released, although Sky News is reporting that one death was a patient in his 50s in Bristol, which is a much younger fatality than those we have seen so far.

[Barracker]

When worldometer updates the graphs for Italy and UK today, I'll post them here.

[Inkpaperstars]

Thank you. The maths is a bit beyond me but I am trying to get whatever message I can from it.

[gorbashthecat]

Thanks for this.

[lubeybooby]

The only way we can compare to other countries is by working backwards from the total CV19 related deaths I suppose. But no one seems to agree on what the death rate should be presumed as in that calculation

[TheQueef]

Good idea Barracker thanks.

[Nacreous]

That new number is in line with my forecast based on the last 10 days or so, actually slightly higher.

I think the new testing criteria still allow for community testing, if you have been in contact with a confirmed case and have symptoms, or have symptoms and have come from Italy, Iran etc in the last 14 days. I will be interested to see what happens as that progresses though. The NHS in Suffolk are definitely expecting to continue testing community cases as they have set up and are running drive thru testing facilities at community hospitals.

[danni0509]

Thanks x

[Barracker]

Nacreous my understanding is that it doesn't, that it's reserved for those admitted and critical.
Even ill doctors and nurses are not getting tested, after treating confirmed COVID-19 patients. They are lobbying for their own priority testing.
If anyone has an update on this, please post it here.

[lycrasensation]

Good idea to have this thread - thanks for positing.

Family member working on a Covid-19 ward and one colleague has tested positive, so there must be some testing going on but unsure as to how consistent/what the process is.

[Nacreous]

Barracker it says here that for testing it must meet the criteria of a possible case:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-guidance-for-clinical-diagnostic-laboratories/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-who-to-call-to-request-laboratory-testing

And here includes anyone with a cough or high temperature
www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#interim-definition-possible-cases

But they did update that on Friday because it used to have some info about contact with confirmed cases etc. on the community one so you may well be right. Interesting though because those pages make it look like it's up to the HCP.

[Barracker]

Yes, from late on Thursday the criteria page states only to test those who meet the "inpatient definition".
The others, who were eligible before Thursday, are no longer eligible.

I just read a post on Reddit where the poster's grandfather just died 'of flu' but was refused COVID-19 testing. The family are in self-isolation. The death will not be included in COVID-19 numbers.
It occurs to me that there may be other deaths classified this way that are possibly not attributed correctly due to the restrictive testing strategy.

[GrumpyMiddleAgedWoman]

Good thread, thanks.

[Barracker]

Graphs reflecting yesterday's data (March 15th)

I'll update with today's data when figures are released this afternoon.

[Fartintheloft]

Why are there no figures for deaths today? Does that mean there aren’t any more? (unlikely I would think)

[Fartintheloft]

Just answered my own question. Apparently it will be updated this afternoon. After the press conference or am I being cynical...