What does the PM mean by “tide turning” or whatever in JUNE?

[R2221]

We are in MARCH!! 3 more months of what??? We ONLY had less than 2 weeks of cases going up. Will they continue to go up for 3 months???

Fuck knows.

Fucked if I know. I’d understand if we were in lockdown. But if we carry on with half the nation being utterly deluded and carrying on like nothing is happening then surely it will only get worse.

Apparently the peak is going to arrive mid May to mid June

Boris thinks he is doing some religious sermon or something, turning the tide what a tool.

I am generally a calm person. I’m absolutely terrified now. Italy is only 1 month into this. The PM cannot make comments like this and not explain. I hope he means some vaccine is coming. I really hope he means that.

I thought the late May peak was based on the previous strategy. Now that they’ve changed it I’m not sure they really know.

amp.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75?

Schools need to close for 5 months

Of course the vaccine isn’t coming, not for many months - maybe next year - and the U.K. isn’t a priority country to get hold of it anyway. June is the very least I would expect..

12 weeks of restriction and or lock down. From then cases will reduce

This is going to go on for years. Genuinely, unless we manage to find a treatment before then...

FA. His tied will turn, I think the baby's due in June.

It’s a 26 week curve and we are in week 8.

3 months til the tide turns means 3 months until it begins to start improving, not 3 months until it’s all over. I don’t think people realise the scale of this. There’s a reason why leaders are saying they need to act like wartime governments. It’s massive!

Well it took 3 months to stop cases in China so he's not being unrealistic.

What @Derbygerbil said.

Of course it won't go on for years.
We will get a vaccine it's just a question of when.

Hopefully if these measures works I guess we are still on build up then come down the other side.

But all our measures were so slow, our democracy welcoming this virus in with open arms... Too slow.

We should have always been in contact with places like Taiwan and Singapore... They have incredible pandemic teams.

He has no fucking clue. He just said it because it sounded like a good idea. Look at his face as the journalist asks him to clarify. He has zero idea

Chief scientific advisor said 20 000 deaths would be a "good outcome". We have a long way to go. Especially if people keep on ignoring the instructions.

This is why some of us are aghast at the fact many in the UK just don't seem to be getting it. There seems to be no comprehension of the severity of the situation - people still going to pubs, restaurants, allowing playdates and so on - it's utter madness. Yes, it will continue for months - our Taoiseach (I'm in Ireland) described this period as 'the calm before the storm' - so please, please, please take all necessary precautions now, and do your best to lessen the risk to all.

It’s a bid for positive headlines. The scientific evidence doesn’t support it.

There have been drug trials going on globally with one starting here next week.
We can beat this with treatments ahead of a vaccine

I believe there’s already a vaccine that’s gone into human trails, which is good news. But I think the minimum time from initial human trials to it being judged safe is more than a year. And then they have to manufacture it in enormous quantities. I’d be surprised if there’s a widely available vaccine in less than 18 months. There’s some chance that we might find something that treats it more effectively - I’ve heard small-scale trials with chloroquine are looking hopeful.

We won’t have a vaccine for at least another 18months. We may find a treatment before then (fingers crossed). The imperial paper published on Monday indicates they would expect control measures to go on until November 2021. That’s 2 years after this started (in China). It really is going to be years of social distancing and school closures on and off to manage pressure on the hospitals and reduce the number of people who die.

He was completely lost when asked to explain what he meant by that phrase. He's just saying words he thinks sound good. Disturbing lack of substance. He looked surprised to be asked to explain it. It's baffling.

@RJnomore1 Pls could you link your source regarding the 26week curve?