What does the PM mean by “tide turning” or whatever in JUNE?

[R2221]

We are in MARCH!! 3 more months of what??? We ONLY had less than 2 weeks of cases going up. Will they continue to go up for 3 months???

It’s not just about a vaccine. It’s also about a cure, being able to give people who have it medication and they are fine quickly and it doesn’t develop further.

I’m not sure why everyone is focused on a vaccine when even Boris announced they were trialling a cure. As did trump. They are doing it in many countries, with many different drugs that seem to cure it.

The US has offered billions to a German drug company if it offers the US exclusive use of the drug. Germany wants the drug for itself. We’re out of the EU, so EU countries will get it before us.

Baby due in June. Cue adoring press and "BoJo saves the world/new baby, new hope" headlines. Much adoration of Carrie.

Cynical? Oh yes. Accurate? Even more so.

Probably followed by an even tighter lockdown.

I’m trying hard to give him the benefit of the doubt but when he said he’d “get it done” my eyes rolled into the back of my head. It’s not fucking Brexit, Boris.

It's a ridiculous sound bite for the press.

You just needed to watch how he look to both CW and GV to back him up, and neither wanted to say anything.

When asked in the science press briefing about timescales (particularly in relation to the Imperial paper), that happened yesterday/this morning, they were very clear that there was no agreed timescale as the modelling will keep changing. They also talked about relaxing isolation rules, testing, and vaccinations, and made it clear that this is going to be a long term effort.

Not a guaranteed twelve weeks until a magical tide turning by the science.

In America and England it is Chloroquine, the malaria drug they are trialling to cure as it seem effective also on those who have developed second stage pneumonia
.

No they didn’t back him up

We won't be the same as Italy in a few weeks, as we're not doing the lockdown like they are. We'll be far far worse, as we're still being allowed to mingle much more that the Italians or Spaniards are.

Why does he think we will have it any better than they do, if we are not following the same rules?

Its lockdown or armageddon

The US has offered billions to a German drug company if it offers the US exclusive use of the drug

That was clearly fake news, because sixty seven cures and vaccines are moving into human trial globally and America is trialling a drug, but it’s the same one as us , an existing one, and not a German drug.

In addition globally all countries are sharing the findings, and with many pharmaceutical companies they can potentially enable wide spread production. There is no country grabbing it for themselves.

Too much stupid fake news out there.

Not a guaranteed twelve weeks until a magical tide turning by the science

Of course no guarantee but the science is a cure, and right now that’s looking highly likely to be readily available within twelve weeks.

God that’d be good Bluntness

@leemiller I agree but it is better than his speech last week for sure. I am in France and there is lockdown here, because France has responded to what has happened in Italy, and people are cooperating because it has been well thought through, so far, with sufficient safety nets and food on shelves and so on. Boris is aware of this no doubt. I do think that public opinion has an impact on him. Which is why I am posting the links, even though they have already been posted on mumsnet, also so that people are aware that it is contagious.

I really think that there is no reason why the virus can't be brought under control now that we have seen it happen in China. But only if people realise how contagious it is, and that for a time they need to steer clear of others, I think.

In relation to the vaccine a news report this week in the Guardian said that China thought that Japan already had medication that would work.

Trouble with these daily briefs is that everyone is expecting all the answers to all the scientific and economic questions now, now, now and that is not realistic, but the pressure of expectation is now forcing the PM and the medical experts to make predictions that they would otherwise have preferred to spend time creating more measured and accurate answers for. Agreed they don't have the luxury of time, but people need to be more realistic.

I can't believe people think there'll be a vaccine in a matter of months, no way! The best we can hope for is that they have undertaken clinical trials on existing FDA/EMA-approved therapies for other diseases such as malaria and HIV and find some effective treatments for the most extreme cases of Corona. That will in itself require clinical trials using real sufferers of Corona which is of course very risky, time consuming and the patients clearly have to consent to those trials. This all takes time.

If only people can get on board social distancing (like, yesterday!) because it will get us to a much stronger position much quicker to flatten and plateau the exponential volume cases expected by June. It would give the NHS some breathing space, in addition to the 'recoverers' being able to get back to work and slowly begin to rebuild people's finances, family by family. Plus there will be the starting of herd immunity, so there are fewer people wandering round infecting people who haven't succumbed to it yet.

Good grief threads on this board are out of control. Not sure why I read all of this scaremongering nonsense but honestly, if the Coronavirus doesn’t get you lot then a coronary will!

Bluntness makes some excellent points.

*extremely contagious I meant!

Not a guaranteed twelve weeks until a magical tide turning by the science

It isn't to do with finding a cure, it is to do with stopping the spread - which is what has happened in China.

Threads like this is why I'm coming off Mumsnet. Overnight, an army of scientists have appeared online 🙄

That will in itself require clinical trials using real sufferers of Corona which is of course very risky, time consuming and the patients clearly have to consent to those trials

As much as I agree with your post on people being realistic. They are already starting trials on infected patients, the Uk is doing its first randomly picked patient today. The USA is also doing it and via compassionate use, as are other countries. Results are positive from what I understand which is what I think led Boris to give a time line.

However what we need is what he said, people to socially isolate, stop it spreading and people dying till the cure is confirmed. Likely sooner rather than later.

Bluntness is talking magic unicorn tears.

It isn't to do with finding a cure, it is to do with stopping the spread - which is what has happened in China

It’s both, they need to stop the spread till the find a cure. They may have it. A vaccine will come later.

Oh come on folks. The PM cannot be more precise because no country has been through it and recovered and is clear. on the impacts. No one yet knows if once you've had an outbreak it will get better - some asian countries are now going through a second wave. And the best estimates on a vaccine is 12-18 months. The Spanish flu in 1918 - 1919 went through 3 waves. No one can promise what happens next. We are just hitting the curve.

The PM will be spending a lot of time considering ongoing medical evidence of impacts and projected outcomes; and a range of options foe governmental interventions to mitigate impacts for business, employment, low income households, casual workers, and self employment, to schools and colleges. They are working on these options all the time and they are also working on the best way to message their approaches to the population without stoking up anxiety and panic. This is responsible government. Not making promises and firm assertions when they have no certainty. Explaining what they have and can say at each stage. Its really important not to offer hopeful guesses but still to keep the population positive. Right now all we know is that the worst is yet to come. Thats the only truth.

I imagined that to mean things starting to open again and reduction in cases. I imagine as more is known they will be using some powerful data modeling. Which would work even better if they tested everyone with symptoms and those around people that test positive but are asymptomatic! (Rant of a data person)

Why am I talking magic unicorn tears? Are you under the impression the scientific community is lying, we are not trialling cures globally and seeing success? It’s all a big lie?

Ignoring the fake news, what daisy is saying is that the emphasis is on social distancing. Which is really sensible, so maybe focus on that, rather than disagreements about the vaccine?

I guess we will wait and see how successful France and Spain are. The situation in Italy is dire because it was weeks and weeks and weeks before people took notice. But other countries in Europe have now taken heed and taken measures and hopefully the UK will too, soon.

Social distancing is needed in addition to the development of a vaccine and/or effective medication.

Just saw you said the same thing @Bluntness100! I agree, both is needed.