What does the PM mean by “tide turning” or whatever in JUNE?

[R2221]

We are in MARCH!! 3 more months of what??? We ONLY had less than 2 weeks of cases going up. Will they continue to go up for 3 months???

Johnson is not. He's just a chancer and a bullshitter who's life concern has been himself. He's doing as well as can be expected in the circumstances.

And? hes a politician there all bullshit merchants most of them know fuck all anyway.

I bet old Proff Witty is getting good at keeping a straight face when there all on the TV:!

Daisy, we are as instrumental in research as the rest of the world. We are not some poor man's country begging for information and help. We are providing research, like the rest of the world

I'm not sure where you got the impression I don't rate the U.K. as leaders in science, i absolutely do (I worked in Sir Patrick Valance' organisation for 10 years). I just don't see how we can get a vaccine through all the clinical trials phases and approvals plus manufactured and distributed globally in a year, which is the timescale I've read on here and people are clinging onto. It's best to quash inaccuracies and be fair to people who are clearly anxious and need the truth.

And we're on the Vaccine trial in early June..

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/cambridge-research-team-working-towards-vaccine-against-covid-19?

I don’t think anyone really has a clue what will happen, they can only go by what’s been happening in China and Italy. It could end sooner if a vaccine is pushed though (not likely) or if we lockdown early? But judging by what I see on tv, people acting as if nothing is happening, still going out to the pub and mixing with others it’s likely to take longer than 3 months. The coming weeks and months are not going to be easy .

@Justaboy
All politicians stretch the truth on occasion, though few have lied and lied as much as Johnson. Some politicians want to do good for their country - look at, for example, Varadkar in Ireland. Others are careerists, like Johnson, who see it as a game through which they can obtain fame and fortune. There is actually a world of difference between the two.

One crucial thing which will probably have changed in 12 weeks is that we should have an antibody test in large scale production. If it’s quick, and if it can be rolled out at scale, and if the evidence is showing at least short term lasting new immunity then we can start letting people with proven immune status back to the outside world. That would definitely feel like a turning tide.

I would feel less frightened if the bars, cafes, gyms, clubs etc were closed. By telling everyone to do the right thing and stay away from these places but let them stay open they have blood on their hands.
You can’t say this is deadly serious and we must act now and then give people the choice as to whether they decide to act on the advice. Too many won’t do it. He is giving people more credit than they deserve if he believes they will all stay out of these places.

There have been enough scientists and medics from the Far East and other parts of Europe begging the UK to listen and learn from what they didn’t get right. Have the government done that? Not fast enough and not forcibly enough.

I took it as it will peak in June - it was clearer when the journalist asked for clarification on what his soundbites mean though not sure Boris knows himself.

Well clearly he means that the epidemic will peak and "the tide will turn" i.e. the number of daily new cases/deaths will be levelling off or hopefully reducing at that point, provided we engage in the level of social distancing and isolation (in the event of symptoms) that he has explained. What is not to understand about that?

We need to staythefuckhome

These are the official numbers - 500k dead in the UK unless we take this seriously

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1240629424871047168

It isn't to do with finding a cure, it is to do with stopping the spread - which is what has happened in China.

I just don't understand how people can sensibility try to compare China's outcome with ours.

This is a country that built hospitals in a matter of days.

That could trace every single person a positive case had been in contact with and alert them immediately to self-isolate.

They were tracking, testing, and quarantining quickly and efficiently.

We're seeing that right now with the fact that Italy, who BTW is currently in lockdown, has a higher death rate than China.

Italy had their first cluster on 21st of Feb, and quarantined the area. On the 8th of March he quarantined the whole country.

That was 11 days ago.

If the UK was actually testing, and behaving the same way as Italy, we'd have whole swathes of the country locked down by now.

Instead we're all congregating in Costa and flooding our Supermarkets.

I personally think it's silly to compare ourselves as on par with Italy (we're doing worse) and downright idiotic to think we will see the same "positive" outcome as China.

The infection rate will just start to slow down by the end of June. We won't be close to clear of risk til September (going by the graphs etc published based on our trajectory)

Calling it now we will be worse than Italy due to government inaction.

I thought locking down Italy might see a slight reduction but it hasn’t. Worrying

I think he is equating us to China but we are nothing like China. We can already see all the idiots who are taking no notice of his 'advice' about how to behave. He is not prepared to enforce those rules and they just don't believe it will ever happen to them. DH's cousin lives in London. He is in his 50s. He is going in and out on the tube every day to his office in Westminster and spends the rest of his time in pubs. Went to a St Patrick's Day party in a pub and they were all plastered. Had lunch in the pub yesterday and today and is at the pub tonight. He and his pals are there 4-5 nights a week and most of Sunday. He says he isn't changing what he does and anyway goes to the gym most mornings so is fit and healthy. He lives in Brent - one of the top 5 areas of infection in London. He works in Westminster (not in the political sense) which I think is 2nd or 3rd highest. The level of his and his friends' stupidity is astonishing. They are off to Wales this weekend drinking with an old university friend of his.
It is time Boris shut down London and major cities and made people comply.

Yes it’s going to peak at 20,000 deaths over 12 weeks. That takes us to June.

I thought locking down Italy might see a slight reduction but it hasn’t. Worrying

The Italian doctor I heard on the news explained that they were only expecting to see the result of the lockdown measures about two weeks after it started.

That is when they expect to know how effective it's been.

I think we're quite ignorant in the UK of just how long this takes for symptoms to develop, and for those symptoms to worsen.

It's not like you catch it and then you're blue-lighted to hospital. I think it's quite a slow way to go (16 days is the average ICU stay).

The same doctors are now warning that the average age for patients fighting for their lives in ICUs is getting younger and younger. In some ways, the fact that China dealt with this so effectively is again, probably making us ignorant to the fact it likely won't be just "the elderly and vulnerable".

Italy locked down after 17 deaths ..

And we're at the Italy equivalent of Day 14 with schools still open and not even minor social distancing implemented yet...

DowntonAbby
“The government has already taken the UK out of the emergency bulk-buying mechanism for vaccines and medicines, which allows countries to strike agreements with pharmaceutical companies to speed up the process at a time of crisis.

They write: 'For all these reasons ... the UK is likely to have to join the queue for access with other countries outside the EU, and to pay more than it would otherwise as an EU member state.

'Looking further ahead, this problem will not be limited to emergencies and the UK can expect slower and more limited access to medicines.

If a coronavirus vaccine is developed, EU countries may choose to band together to jointly procure the vaccine. This would give EU countries more bargaining power against a vaccine maker to try to secure a lower price. If the UK were excluded from such a joint procurement scheme, it's possible that the UK would end up paying a higher price than the EU for the same vaccine.”

You just needed to watch how he look to both CW and GV to back him up, and neither wanted to say anything

Yes, I noticed that.

BJ has long traded on his buffoon act, being 'a character' and whatever else people were daft enough to believe. He's ruthless.

However, he lacks any gravitas, any desire to truly study the detail and is basically always winging it. Oh, and he lies and lies and lies.

So there's that.

It’s based on their scientific modelling and presented to us at resilience planning at work, usual pandemic curve takes 15 weeks, the attempts here are to flatten that to manage impact on NHS and we are into week 8 at present. IF people followed social distancing it may work that way.

It takes time for Italy’s lock down to reverse 2 to 3 weeks it’s easy to see why

Chris Whitty constantly tries to clear up Johnson’s lack of direction the trouble is people are preferring to hear the latter. It’s just advice oh well then.

Italy's peak is expected end of March/start of April, it takes time for lockdown to show results and it's the waiting period at the moment. I wish they would explain this clearly at the press conferences because people are using it as an excuse not to change behaviour.

Restrictions are being tightened all the time in Italy too. There is a team of Chinese doctors here advising on what Italy can do better and they are advocating further closures and tightening of the rules. I can imagine what they think of Johnson's approach.

I assumed he meant that this is going to be the time when it will start to come down, as in we still have a lot more shit to deal with.

Also with the daily press conferences, I don;t want him to deal with the science, I want him to deal with what his government are putting in place for the massive amount of people losing their jobs and possibly going on to UC, the landlords that might not have a mortgage and rely on the income and the estate agents that are not sending out emails stating that people need to pay their rent and its their most important bill above all else. Also the self employed people, sole traders.

Oh and how anyone is meant to survive in SSP, this is what I want to hear from our Prime Minister

*now sending out emails