Worst case scenario estimates *Title edited by MNHQ*

[Ladykluck]

The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality so they are expecting around 480,000 to die. Although they stopped short of actually saying that number. Just in case anyone missed it. I’m a doctor and the doctors of Europe are screaming at us to shut the country down and BoJo just told us to stay home for a week and not go on a cruise.

Busted OP

"did he say that? or did he repeat Worse case scenario?"

80% was clearly described as the highest realistic worst case scenario (and this figure has been used by planners all along). It may well come in considerably lower.

I'm a brain surgeon....

I’ve heard the figure mentioned of 500,000 for a few weeks now, it’s not new news,

It's 1% of the population as an average though isn't it?

If you look at death rates in the under 50s it's about 0.2%ish and then gradually starts to rise until it's about 14% of the over 70s or 80s, or thereabouts.

I've also seen figures showing 80% ( of those who catch it) will be asymptomatic or mildly affected, of the remaining 20%, 15% will require some hospital treatment and 5% will need ITU. How do those figures match up with the 480,000 deaths that op is citing?

Looking at China as an example, they've not had 80% infected have they?

He didn't say that. He said 80% was the worst case scenario. That 1% is the mortality rate and when numbers stabilise then he can calculate likely deaths but not before.

He did not day that at all. He said that's the worst case scenario they've looked at, but no other country has even come close to that percentage.

It would be useful if hysterical bullshit wasn't posted all over the internet.

I'm Brian and so is my wife

That's worse case scenario.

It's really not. We don't know the mortality rate properly because the more serious cases are more likely to be diagnosed, but 1% relies on a number of assumptions to guess that the real rate is less than it has been so far.

That said, the 80% infection rate is certainly worst case.

He did say that. He is not taking any measures at all. Telling people not to go on cruises and to isolate for 7 days is crap advice - he's done nothing, except resolve to let it spread among the population, and only take action when everyone's got it.

Maybe she’s got a PhD in dinosaurs like Ross off Friends “I am a REAL doctor” or she just likes telling porkies to internet randoms 🤔.

@user my GP uses Google all the time when I have an appointment

OP, what are you a doctor of?

If you're a doctor of medicine, the Hippocratic oath states "first do no harm".

So give over with your scaremongering, please.

I'm not going to trust any of the figures until there's a reliable coronavirus antibody test so they can be sure how many people have actually been infected, and then recovered, and then use that against the number who have died to produce a proper mortality rate.

Doctors might be pushing to close the country down but considering people need to eat and pay mortgages there needs to be some reason in all this.

I'm an astronaut.

I am Spartacus.

*Doctors might be pushing to close the country down but considering people need to eat and pay mortgages there needs to be some reason in all this.
That's where the government should step in, as in Italy where they have suspended all mortgage payments and utility bills

@Teddypops
Only 80000 people had it China (and this is so far) because of the containment measures. There are restrictions across the country, not just in Hubei province. My dd has not been at school since January 23rd.
Apparently the uk govt does not believe that the uk population can start at home therefore they are delaying restrictions until it becomes necessary...

Wrong.

SuckingDieselFella/HelloBolloxMyOldFriend/BMW6 this thread is about half a million people dying a painful death, could you perhaps take your inane jokes elsewhere?

1700 people in England died from flu last year, did we go into mass panic and lockdown over that?
These threads are getting crazy.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras
No, they don’t have 80% because they introduced extreme measures. I live 280 miles from Wuhan and everything except for some supermarkets and pharmacies was shut.

That's not actually what he said. That's the VERY top line of potential infections not deaths.

Plus it's a major over estimation.