Worst case scenario estimates *Title edited by MNHQ*

[Ladykluck]

The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality so they are expecting around 480,000 to die. Although they stopped short of actually saying that number. Just in case anyone missed it. I’m a doctor and the doctors of Europe are screaming at us to shut the country down and BoJo just told us to stay home for a week and not go on a cruise.

I don't think anyone, even Boris is saying it's OK.

But he is saying it's inevitable, unless all doctors everywhere are wrong. Even if we did a China-style complete clamp down starting tomorrow, more people are gong to die. And he is right to remind us that they are real people, loved ones. Not dismissing them, as all too many people do, as 'only' the old or those with other medical conditions.

Also, it was just before the message about 7 days staying in your own home for all cold symptoms. People will be tempted not to comply with this ('it's only a bit of a cough and I need to finish some stuff at work and go to the supermarket') so I think it is right to remind that real people who matter will die.

@Ladykluck If you really are a dr it's taken you a very long time to work out the stats which is scary in itself.
The 1% mortality rate of 80% has been talked about for weeks.Where were you then???

I am tired of people using the CV as a means to take a pot shot at the Tories.

We are in a delay phase now.

You cannot tell all the population to stay at home. Children who are off school for example will need childcare. Their parents may be drs or nurses, or cleaners in hospitals.

Someone has to keep going to work.

For someone who is a dr, you are very naive.

A 1% case fatality rate is very low compared to the figures the WHO and other countries are using. WHO assume a CFR of 3.4%. If 80% of the population infected, that's 1.8 million deaths. Even if only half that get infected it's still nearly a million deaths

He doesn’t care.

He’s not a high risk group so it doesn't matter to him.

This is such utter crap it makes me quite angry. I’m no Boris fan but he’s not a psychopath - most people aren’t. There are thousands of people in govt doing their best, deploying their expertise and trying to find the right way forward. Saying utterly crass things like the above is really offensive and also potentially frightening for people who don’t know better.

@Loppy10

You've had your fun.

Stop it now.

The thing they didn't say is how many are likely to be seriously I'll enough to require ICU. Did WHO suggest 5%? That's where the math gets v scary too.

good post, KettlePolly. I hope everyone reads it.

That’s what the math says yes, but what he actually said, and repeated was that the eighty percent was speculative and that’s why he didn’t wish it in the public arena as they had no science to back it up. It’s worst case. It’s speculative and they just don’t know.

Did anyone hear the same or is it just me?

It’s just you
He clearly didn’t say that’s ok and let’s not bother trying to stop it. As a pp said, he’s not a fucking pscyhopath, irrelevant of your politics.

Hi all, we're getting a lot of reports about this being scaremongering. We have to agree in regards to the title.

We're not here to fact check but to moderate posts according to our Talk Guidelines, however, this 480,000 seems to refer to this article which is referring to the USA, which has a much bigger population than the UK.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-dr-james-lawler-warning-us-hospitals-infection-a9385031.html

We've edited the title as this thread was getting a huge amount of reports. If we want the discussion here to continue, the title needs to cite where the number has come from and be a bit less inflammatory.

Thanks Clara. Are you going to edit the title then? Please?

No he absolutely didn't say that. I don't believe you're any kind of doctor.

Oh well we're overpopulated anyway

What a horrid thing to say.

My ds has hereditary spastic paraplegia. The GP has googled that before when I went in with him to see if what I was asking could be related to that.
GP and dr can just be general. It took a specialist neuromuscular neurologist and genetics team to dx ds.

Thanks MNHQ for saying about scare mongering.

People are scared. Of course they are. Both my parents have cancer so that's a concern to me. The media are whipping up a frenzy and people on SM doing the same doesn't help.

It's an unknown. We need to remember that. We won't have true figures as no one will be tested for the mild symptoms that apparently people can have. No one will know carriers.

People hear what they want. They twist words and evaluate statistics to fit their own agenda bias.

I'm not a Tory or Bojo fan. But I'm certainly not hearing him saying it's fine people will die. He did however admit many will lose family members earlier than they expected.

Look after yourselves and your families how you see fit.

Boris must be a bit at risk, he's at least in the obese category. Maybe there is a vaccine already for the elites.

Actually mumsnet 480,000 is a reasonable number.

My calculation is thus - if 60% of population get it (this is probably low but let's go with it - no-one has immunity, no vaccine) with a 1% mortality rate we get to a figure of approx 400,000 deaths.

However a 1% mortality rate (or lower) is only seen where there is ample health service available i.e. everyone who needs one gets a bed. In Italy and Hubei the mortality was closer to 4% (actually may be higher in Italy in the end). These are places where health services are overwhelmed. Based on that figure (which is proven and published) then the deaths come to 1.6million.

So 1.2 million deaths saved if you lockdown early, basically. Which we're not doing.

This is maths based on published information about existing countries with coronavirus. It's not scaremongering to state facts FFS. This is all data from sources like Lancet, WHO.

Coronavirus is real and there is a name for suppression of actual facts. None of us like it but it's true and we have a choice about whether it's 1% death rate or 4%. Our government is taking the 4% route - they don't have to.

The thing they didn't say is how many are likely to be seriously I'll enough to require ICU. Did WHO suggest 5%? That's where the math gets v scary too.

They did say that currently 20 people are in ICU

I tend to agree Langbanned, just wondered what specific measures were you hoping for?

My calculation is thus - if 60% of population get it (this is probably low but let's go with it - no-one has immunity, no vaccine)

But nevertheless that hasn't happened anywhere else

Jeez OP, I hope you don't practice in my area coming on here and continuing to light the flame of hysteria. Pretty sure that GMC don't like that sort of thing.
If you are a real doctor you have a responsibility to give accurate info

I seriously hope that I never encounter you as my Doctor. Totally irresponsible way or “reporting” things. Seriously, it’s like a fudging competition on here as to who can create the most dramatic post.

We'll put Langbanned. It shocked me because it felt as a choice. As " I am sorry but to keep the economy going as long as we can we will have victims: your elderly and sick loved ones. " I understand that these are choices that politicians have to make but it is still shocking to hear

Maybe there is a vaccine already for the elites

There is no vaccine & one is not expected to be ready for a year, no matter who you are.

Agree Lang.

I heard a while back, if 80% are infected, there would be approx half a million deaths.

I know of at least 20 people who this would kill, kids with health needs, babies and adults with cancer and elderly people / adults with health needs........all of these people are important to someone. They have families that love them. Just like everyone else.

The sad thing is about this disease is that people won't star caring until the young and healthy start dying. And by then it will be too late.