Worst case scenario estimates *Title edited by MNHQ*

[Ladykluck]

The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality so they are expecting around 480,000 to die. Although they stopped short of actually saying that number. Just in case anyone missed it. I’m a doctor and the doctors of Europe are screaming at us to shut the country down and BoJo just told us to stay home for a week and not go on a cruise.

Keep on throwing meaningless figures around. We don’t know the infected number nor the mortality number nor the susceptible numbers and we never will.

It is all guesswork but mostly bollocks
.

But, when swine flu hit, the ‘best case scenarios’ were that 3-7 million people would die worldwide. In fact, around 18,000 people died worldwide.

The 1% mortality rate is based on the percentage of diagnosed cases isn’t it? The vast majority of the population will get covid-19 without actually being diagnosed since they just won’t or can’t test everyone. So that will surely skew statistics by the point 80% of the country get it won’t it? If the stats have been based on 1% of diagnosed cases dying then, are the statistics being done independently and therefore unreliable? In that, it’s estimate 80% of the country will get it but we won’t actually diagnose all those people and therefore it won’t be 1% of 80%?

If I got it tomorrow then I would almost certainly never know - I’ve not returned from a high risk country, I haven’t been in contact with anyone diagnosed with it and I’m a low-risk person in that I have no health issues so they wouldn’t ever actually test me?

The solicitor in my office regularly googled things.

And doctors don't take the hippocratic oath anymore.

He did not say 80% were expected to get it, he said that is their worst case scenario expectation. Sounds very possible considering other measures they haven't done but I don't know.

We have about 500,000 annual mortality normally. Lets say 480,000 do die from this....what we don't know is the overlap with those who would have died anyway. It will also so sadly bring forward some that might have died in the following year or so.

They will be some overlap but no idea how much. However, there will also possibly be a rise deaths not from coronavirus but from other causes where treatment is limited by the strain of coronavirus.

Last few doc appointments I've had they've asked Dr. Goggle too

The 1% mortality rate is based on the percentage of diagnosed cases isn’t it? The vast majority of the population will get covid-19 without actually being diagnosed since they just won’t or can’t test everyone. So that will surely skew statistics by the point 80% of the country get it won’t it? If the stats have been based on 1% of diagnosed cases dying then, are the statistics being done independently and therefore unreliable? In that, it’s estimate 80% of the country will get it but we won’t actually diagnose all those people and therefore it won’t be 1% of 80%?

I could be wrong but I think they have already made that adjustment in reaching their 1% figure, and that is why they are not going with the 3.4% other experts give.

The statistics are not based on diagnosed cases. The WHO estimates a death rate of around 3%. In Wuhan and in Italy the death rate is higher than that. We are using a figure of 1% that assumes that a very large number of cases are undiagnosed and that our health system will cope much better than other places with high numbers of infections.

Listen to the conference not just soundbites - the scientific officers were careful to qualify and explain their reasons for giving the numbers they did and for taking the measures that they are, now, as opposed to more drastic ones.

Seriously - get off mumsnet for 40 minutes or off Amazon trying to buy bogroll and just watch the conference.

He did not say that, and in fact very clearly said he would NOT do that "simple multiplication" because they are not confident in the true infection rate - 80% was repeatedly described as being their worst case.

I have been saying this for days and been accused of scaremongering.

The bit that stayed with me was Boris saying that lots more people would loose their loved ones erlier than expected or something on those lines. Is he really saying that it is ok that old people will die? And we should just accept it and not try to stop it?!! Did anyone hear the same or is it just me?

I am a worried layperson.

@Loppy10

"SuckingDieselFella/HelloBolloxMyOldFriend/BMW6 this thread is about half a million people dying a painful death, could you perhaps take your inane jokes elsewhere?"

No, it's about scaremongering. And the people you will frighten most are the lonely and vulnerable. Some achievement for a Thursday evening.

And if you're suggesting that I have more than one username, that's even more lies you're spreading.

I have absolutely no confidence in Boris

@Nearly47

It's just you. If you think he was saying it's ok, can you please indicate which words he used to do this?

It does need to be in actual words. What he said, not what you think he said.

He said he didn't want to say figures and then he dropped the 80% worst case scenario. I bet he is kicking himself.

The virus will be around for months.

As I understood it - closing schools makes a minor impact to infections and deaths, but a massive impact to economy - not just ££ but people able to stock the shelves and treat the sick because they're stuck at home trying to entertain two under tens for a fortnight or longer.

They clearly said self isolation is easy to do, and has a significant impact on infection rates - so we are doing that now and we need to get good and used to doing that now as baseline, because that's what we will need to do for weeks if not months.

They seemed to suggest that forced quarantines are all well and good but you only get "buy in" for a certain amount of time before people go fuck it, I'm bored and the kids are going mental. Do it too early before you really know where the infections and patterns of contaminations are and you can't then do it when you really DO need to - because people just won't then comply, no matter how much bog roll they have in the kitchen cupboard.

This thread should be deleted - people are going to read that headline and be terrified and it isn’t accurate at all

It would be useful if hysterical bullshit wasn't posted all over the internet

Absolutely. Today has been the worst for it. And it's ramping up hysteria and panic, which is NEVER a good thing.

Seriously, it's like there's another virus attacking people's intelligence.

"The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality"
He actually said worst case scenario...did u hear that bit makes a massive difference!

Oh well we're overpopulated anyway

Seriously, it's like there's another virus attacking people's intelligence.

+1

I agree @Rhubarbpeony

I've reported the OP, because I think it's time that posts with fake stats that are causing hysteria and panic, get deleted.

In surprised u being a doctor u would just completely miss the important part out

Good thinking, @saraclara

Unlike some on this thread.