Worst case scenario estimates *Title edited by MNHQ*

[Ladykluck]

The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality so they are expecting around 480,000 to die. Although they stopped short of actually saying that number. Just in case anyone missed it. I’m a doctor and the doctors of Europe are screaming at us to shut the country down and BoJo just told us to stay home for a week and not go on a cruise.

The 1% has been averaged across the whole population. If you strata-ed it out, and then factored it in according to the quantities in each age category, you would get back to the 1%.

But to get actual numbers of people don't you have to look at specific age groups?

Eg does 0.2% of everyone up to 70 + 10%of those over 70 = the same as 1% of 80% of the population?

480,000 deaths ? Isn’t that roughly the number of malaria deaths every single year , and mainly children ?

In a shipwreck, you may not save everyone. You can try, but you cannot allocate blame if you fail.

Depends on why it was shipwrecked and why you couldn't save people. Hence accident investigations so we can learn and adapt and prevent unnecessary deaths and injuries.

I think @Hearhoovesthinkzebras is right. It's a disease that affects elderly people hardest, and I am nearly old. And there were shipwreck survivors even when there were no lifeboats. if you are ship-wrecked near enough the coast to swim ashore or for the RNLI to reach you. In the mid-Atlantic, rescue isn't a certainty... but LUCK (fickle jade that she is) will make the call.

No, it would be

0.2 of of everyone under 70 + 10% of everyone over 70 = 1% of everyone.

Or

0.2 of 80% of the under 70s + 10% of 80% of the over 70s = 1% of 80% of the population.

(I am not saying the 0.2 or the 10% are correct figures, by the way, just giving examples of how it would work out if they were).

What I and others are saying is the maths has already been done to get to that 1%. They have looked at the number of 80 year olds, 70 year olds, etc in the UK population, and come up with an overall mortality rate of 1% of the population.
Italy's overall mortality rate will be higher as it has an older population. Everyone recognises that.

Speckledy hen, yes it is. Which is a shocking amount.

However, you are comparing national figures with global figures. A global estimate on the same basis would be somewhere in the area of 45 million deaths from covid 19.

Hearhooves - there are graphs knocking around of the death rates in each age group - I think from memory that 40-50yrs was 0.5% (my own age group).

There will be graphs of the age groups who have confirmed diagnoses too - although it won't show the whole story, because there are many times more undiagnosed people floating around who haven't been tested. I think the estimate was 10,000 right now?

But disturbing reports are coming out of Italy that younger people are getting it, and also having the v serious symptoms - it just took a bit longer.

I cannot believe more isn't being done in the UK.

If a ship hits a floating tree hard in a storm, and the hull fractures? Too far from land? No vessels close enough to help? Unpredictable accidents will always happen at sea. Even the Mediterranean has storms and floating debris.

@xingming What about if a boat hits a tree in a storm and the hull shatters and some people die. But those left say to others - when you build a boat build it with a stronger hull.
Then the UK builds a boat with an even weaker hull than the first one and sets sail in a storm...

It isn't scaremongering to point out that
0.80.0166000000=528,000 deaths worst case uk. That's simple maths. Yes it's scary. That's why we need to all do our bit to lessen the impact and bring those figures down.

Plenty of cases where the captains and owners of ships or boats that have wrecked or crashed have been put on trial.

Unless anyone here is a statistician or a virologist, all of this is pure speculation.

Why has the title been edited to USA deaths? The gov have definitely been throwing that figure around for British deaths for a good month now.

Eek at 0.5% deaths. There's 300 kids at my childs primary school. If we say 2 parents each (l know.....) that would be 30 parents dead 😱

Oooh, I actually have statistician credentials (though am not working in that field currently). I can post. Woohooo!

(Though anyone thinking that statisticians don't at times deal in pure speculation has never worked in psephology).

I have stats creds too, and mortality stats ones at that!

Eek at 0.5% deaths. There's 300 kids at my childs primary school. If we say 2 parents each (l know.....) that would be 30 parents dead

Half a percent x 600 is 3, not 30. Still puts it into perspective if it's people you know.

MIght want to check your decimal places there SquashedFly

0.5% of 600 is not 30...

Also, it's not looking like 0.5% for the age group that would typically have primary school aged children. The best stats I've seen are suggesting 0.4% for 40-49, 0.2% for adults younger than that.

The original thread title was perfectly accurate. No idea why MNHQ changed it.

If anything, the original title stated a measured estimate of potential UK deaths which presupposes the NHS coping and not having to make battlefield triage decisions resulting in death due to lack of treatment.

It's a very daunting thought that 2 or 3 parents just at your kids school of 300 children could die from this. Especially when you, yourself, are included in that number. It's actually horrifying.

Treble it for secondary schools with 1000+ pupils.

Why did mumsnet change the topic name to something completely different and misleading?
" News article estimates 480,000 deaths in the USA in worst case scenario"

It wasn't a news article, it was our Chief Medical Officer's news conference. It wasn't in the USA, it was the UK. And it wasn't a worst case scenario, it was using his own conservative 1% case fatality rate (as opposed to the 6-7% being seen in Italy).
Title is now completely wrong.