US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

@Squeezingwildoranges That is also my experience with Iranians I know. Even the young ones studying over here.

Exactly. Well done Donald and Bibi. Meanwhile people far, far away from this war and who have absolutely no skin in this game are suffering badly. Mainly those in the third world. Does Donny care? Does he fuck. He just wants a win.

Which civilians are these that were interviewed who welcomed the attack. Were they in Iran or are you talking about the royalists who wave their flags alongside the Star of David flags outside of Iran.

We should all be against the IRGC, end of. We don't always need to pivot to the US or the US & Israel when it comes to criticising the actions of leaders.

I seem to be the only one who agrees with @Newbutoldfather that the choice isn’t Trump bad/Iran good or vice versa.

I'm just saying but aren't those two sentences a complete contradiction of each other.

Amnesty International (January 2026)

What happened at the protests in Iran?

Protests erupted in Iran on 28 December 2025. People across the country, outraged at decades of repression, were demanding fundamental change and a political system that respects human rights and dignity. Iranian authorities have responded with an unprecedented deadly crackdown and, since 8 January 2026, cut all internet access to conceal their crimes. Security forces have used unlawful force, firearms and other prohibited weapons, against protesters, which resulted in mass killings and serious injuries.

Verified videos and eyewitness accounts gathered by Amnesty International show that security forces positioned on the streets and on the rooftops of buildings, including houses, mosques and police stations, have repeatedly fired rifles and shotguns loaded with metal pellets at protesters, frequently targeting their heads and torsos. Evidence gathered by Amnesty International reveals that security forces involved in the deadly crackdown include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its Basij battalions and various divisions of Iran’s police force, known by its Persian acronym FARAJA, as well as plain-clothes agents.

The authorities carried out massacres of protesters, primarily on 8 and 9 January, when the death toll rose into thousands. January 2026 marks the deadliest period of repression by the Iranian authorities in decades of Amnesty’s research.

Impunity for the repeated commission of crimes under international law committed by the Iranian authorities during previous protest crackdowns has fuelled this latest round of violence. Amnesty International previously documented how Iran’s security forces used unlawful force, including lethal force, to suppress the Woman Life Freedom uprising of 2022, and the nationwide November 2019 protests.

Why are people in Iran protesting?

The protests began on 28 December 2025, after a sharp collapse of Iran’s currency. This happened amid soaring inflation, state mismanagement of essential services, and worsening living conditions. The protests started with shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar going on strike and closing shops.

Soon, more people joined and protests turned into mass nationwide street demonstrations calling for the end of the Islamic Republic system. Protesters are demanding fundamental change and transition to a new system of government that respects peoples’ human rights and dignity.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2026/01/what-happened-at-the-protests-in-iran/

@Newbutoldfather , "I suspect the vast majority of women would rather a non misogynistic foreign puppet than the IGRC." So what you are saying is they can only choose from the lesser of two evils. From the Iranian women I know, you are wrong. The majority want the Islamic rules lifted but not at the cost of their country.

Is it possible for you to say Trump bad/IRGC bad?

Read my posts. That is what I said.

Is it possible for you to say that Twiglets?

Not that I think there is a need for it, my post saying it was out of exasperation.

That's a much better source. No one has said that the slaughter was not awful. As I wasn't there, I have no idea what form the protests took. Were they peaceful marches or were they violent riots. That does make a difference. I'm not saying the slaughter of that many people, even if they were violent riots, was right, but it would explain, not excuse, the heavy handedness.

I've criticised Trump loads of times which you must know but once again for the record Trump bad/IRGC bad.

Glad you approve of that source but still, I won't be policed on every source I use while other people are merrily quoting from X etc - or not providing the source at all which is common.

There was nothing inaccurate in the Iran International report that I'm aware of, and no one has said there was.

The "heavy handedness" as you call it just feels like more minimising of IRGC brutality. It is really just heavy handed to kill tens of thousand of your own citizens for protesting? I've been accused of being overly defensive of Israel but I wouldn't use the expression "heavy handedness" to describe the civilians that have been killed by the IDF.

Why does this thread always end up with a goady post leading to a slinging match?

What relevance to the strength of one's argument is whether people agree with you or not?

Why can't a poster ask a question about one aspect of the war then extent it, to another relevant aspect?

Speaking for myself, I'm not here for validation, but for informed debate, which we mostly have. But too regularly I feel like the thread is dragged kicking and screaming into a playground.

And no, I'm not naming any names as a recent post has already been reported ... but was not deleted. Every.Thing.I.Said.In.That.Post.Applies. Now.

I agree with @Twiglets1 that calling it heavy handedness is minimising what the IRCG/Revolutionary Guard is doing to protesters/civilians/women.

I agree @trumpredcard , my latest posts are not helping so excuses for the derailment

Please don't apologise. There is so much good information and informed discussion in the main, that perhaps I just need to heighten my side spats threshold!😂

Equally… why am I not allowed to agree with another poster that the choice isn’t Trump bad/Iran bad without a swarm of wasps coming at me?

No idea what you mean about a recent post of yours being reported but not deleted - how would you even know it was reported if it wasn’t deleted? But still, happy to forego answers to those conundrums to get back on track.

It has to be remembered, I reckon, that when you say you were not there, there is a good chance you would not be even if you lived there.

Authoritarian states are good at hiding protests. I know that because I am posting from one. A few years back there were protests/ getting onto riots in the city where I am. I knew about them because I had a VPN at the time. Nobody I am aware of in the local area where I am knew about them. Distance wise for comparison, the protests were in central London and I am in Watford.

I have seen protests here. Small ones, and they are sort of allowed, so long as they do not become anti government.

The thing is, the guv do get better at covering/ suppressing protests. So stuff that a decade ago would spread by local social media... not now.

Organic protests are the real danger to authoritarian governments, I think. Something local happens and it spreads through word of mouth. That can overthrow because these is a real widespread resentment going on.

Organized protests spread faster, but are maybe "easier" to brutally put down, because the resentment might be there, but it has maybe not gone over the cusp into being universal. You know, to the level where it spills into the security forces.

With the above in mind, I have no idea if the protests in Iran were organic or organized.

But Trump did open his fat gob when the US pilot rescue was going on. Boasting about a CIA anti-information campaign the US was doing inside Iran. While Iran had no internet.

Also, when I see things about " the majority of Iranians want this or that, ", how can anyone know ? There are no polls. No votes. Hell, look at Clacton as an example of how difficult it is to know for sure what people want. They rejected a reasonable bin.

Just so we are sure, I do not approve of the IRGC and I certainly don't think that slaughtering unarmed civilians is in any way acceptable. The number of dead were, from the Iranian government figures, 3117 which is in itself a hell of a lot, to 5000 to possibly 20000. Those are the figures from your Amnesty quote. I have heard figures of up to 40000 but they are totally unverified. I really have no idea but if the official figures are close, that is still a lot. The other issue is that these protests were in 31 different provinces and Iran is a big country. That means they were very well coordinated. Iran's official line is that they were coordinated by the CIA/Mossad and they had armed the protestors who were shooting at security forces. The other side of course denies this. What we do know is that a hell of a lot of people were slaughtered and there were reprisals where the ones who managed to escape were identified, hunted down and executed. All of this is disgusting but in a way it reminds me Gaddafi. If you even made a joke about him in a cafe you could end up arrested and killed. He would not tolerate even the slightest opposition or politics. At the same time, he introduced what was probably the greatest social welfare program in the world for his people. I guess what I'm asking is is it possible to care for the people while still being unbelievably cruel if they step out of line. Sorry that was a bit of a ramble but I'm still going to post it.

@RedTagAlan ,Hell, look at Clacton as an example of how difficult it is to know for sure what people want. They rejected a reasonable bin.

I needed a laugh. Thank you. I literally laughed out loud!! As for the rest of your post, I totally agree with you.

It wasn't my intention to minimise it. The problem is, I don't actually know what happened. If they were just peaceful protest marches then it was a bloodthirsty massacre but if they were armed violent riots with police being killed, then I would say heavy handed is definitely not minimising. I have heard both accounts of what happened and in this case, I'm really not sure what to believe. If I had to make a guess, I would say that they were rioting and some of the protestors might have been armed but the response wasn't only to stop the protests but punitive to teach them a lesson so I need a better expression than heavy handed.

WSJ: Iran’s Top Politicians Urge an End to the War

Iran’s top politicians said the country needs to focus on ending the war and shoring up its crippled economy, pushing back publicly against hardliners who are taking a more defiant approach in the six-month-old conflict.

The comments by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf come as the diplomatic track remains stalled and the Trump administration has shifted to a policy of ratcheting up economic pressure via sanctions and the naval blockade of Iran’s ports.

The war and the economic strictures have piled pressure on Iran’s already spiraling economy, further sinking its currency and making it hard for Iranians to afford their daily needs. Tehran’s more moderate leaders worry the pressure will eventually undermine the country’s stability.

It is unclear, however, whether hardliners who recently levied tough new demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or the Trump administration, which is demanding deep concessions and called again this week for the regime’s collapse, can come to an agreement.

“The war must come to an end at some point,” Pezeshkian said Friday in comments reported by Iranian media. “It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.”

Ghalibaf was less direct but said there will be no security if the country ignores its economic crisis. “No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress,” the parliamentary speaker said. “As someone who has experienced war, we understand the true value of peace.”

Analysts saw the comments as notable expressions of Iran’s economic distress but said that further rounds of escalation are more likely than an end to the war given the current lack of viable parameters for a deal.

Iranian hardliners have a deep distrust of the U.S. administration and have taken the lull in the conflict to prepare for more rounds of fighting.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-top-politicians-urge-an-end-to-the-war-d0936e12

Well honestly. They had it in their fingers to change the world, and they said no. But I am sure the good Count will be back :-)

Just as soon as the bad Count is suspended from Parliament.

The number of deaths is a bit of a clue that you should be blaming the IRGC for their "heavy handedness" rather than saying you don't know what happened and maybe it was someone else's fault (guess who?). Even conservative estimates are in the tens of thousands and there are multiple reports of innocent civilians getting killed, even children.

The Guardian 27th January reported that testimony from medics, morgue and graveyard staff reveals huge state effort to conceal the systematic killing of protesters.

Many articles like this but you still don't know what happened. Maybe you should believe what the IRGC tell you or maybe not ... hmm... dilemma.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e54zp5j6no