US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

There is an upside. I don't get all the adds on MN. In fact, this screen just now... zero adds.

Still on South Korea, this article from Chosun at the start of the war, on demand and supply, is interesting, now we're six months in, their worst fears are getting closer to materialising.
We tend to focus on supply chain effects while the other side of the coin, decreased demand can send economies into a downturn with a domino effect on trading partners.

https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2026/03/02/HE64DQMBDRGYXDJMRCHI66ELGU/

Hopefully, this escalation might bring both sides to the negotiating table.

Iran has fired electro-optical missiles at American warships for the first time.
Tehran said it attacked 10 US ships on Wednesday and fired ballistic missiles at a base in Jordan, after the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers.
US Central Command (Centcom) said its attacks were in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting US navy warships. No Americans were harmed, it said.
Iranian officials have claimed they are using new missiles with advanced features to target the warships.
However, Centcom said on Wednesday that all attempted attacks had failed.
The missiles are likely to include electro-optical seekers, which use cameras and light sensors to see, track, and hit targets with high precision.
Tehran unveiled the Qassem Bassir, a new medium-range ballistic missile with this technology, last year. It is unclear whether this was the specific type launched at the US ships.

The solid-fuel missile has a roughly half-ton warhead, built for precision and for penetrating layered air defences rather than for sheer explosive weight.
Iran’s new national security chief said on Sunday that Tehran had tested a “special anti-destroyer” missile for the first time over a US warship in the region – part of what he described as a sweeping shift in Iran’s approach to the war.
Mohsen Rezaei, the newly installed secretary of the supreme national security council, said the test 48 hours earlier had “created a hell for the Americans, and they fled”.
He said it showed that the American naval blockade of Iran was “vulnerable”.
Mr Rezaei tied it to a broader change in strategy, from “reactive deterrence” to “active deterrence”, after Donald
Trump abandoned the Islamabad understanding.
The strategy has played out with attacks on US bases in Jordan and Erbil, a strike on an American warship, a planned “prohibited zone” in the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman, and the activation of overland corridors.
Analysts say that no missile is built from scratch, and the weapon probably descends from Iran’s existing heavy missiles – the liquid-fuelled Khorramshahr family that forms the backbone of its long-range arsenal – paired with newer solid-fuel motors in the Salman class that allow tighter control and higher efficiency.
The new missiles suggest Tehran may still be receiving assistance from Russia or China to track the location of US warships, experts have warned.
In April, intelligence reports found that Chinese and Russian satellites were secretly providing the Islamic Republic with critical imagery to target US military bases.
Russia has long exchanged weapons with Iran and provided drone expertise during the war.
In May, the US sanctioned China-based entities for providing satellite imagery to Iran during the war. Two months later, it was revealed that China was sending 400 rocket launchers to Iran in a new deal, underscoring their increased military ties.
Mr Trump has downplayed concerns about Beijing and Moscow’s assistance to Iran.
^^
Increased attacks by both sides in recent days have ended a month of relative calm, hitting military, shipping and energy assets, sending oil prices surging and drawing in regional allies.
The price of oil rose above $100 (£74) a barrel for the first time since July on Wednesday as the attacks escalated.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/4613ecb87229b6b1

Yemen’s Houthis today captured the Red Sea port of Mocha after government forces pulled out.
Their control of the coast gives them power to threaten Bab el-Mandeb and access to the Red Sea.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g7vr0lngwo

WSJ is reporting that Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, officials from the U.S. and Middle East familiar with the matter said, eroding what the U.S. and Israel have touted as a major achievement of the war.

And then there is the price of oil.

@TopPocketFind add to that Iranian activity at Pickaxe mountain. Things are heating up the closer we get to the mid-terms.

Iran's secretive underground nuclear site showing a surge in construction
Satellite imagery has revealed a significant increase in construction activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried Iranian facility near Natanz that has attracted growing attention from US and Israeli intelligence officials.
A new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examined six years of satellite imagery and found that construction activity in 2026 is higher than at any previous point observed at the site, CNN reported.
The work includes:
reinforcement of underground access points;
paving and expansion of internal roads;
hardening around entrances;
removal of excavated material;
continued work on the underground complex.
CSIS said the imagery cannot confirm an Israeli intelligence claim that Iran moved uranium centrifuges and centrifuge components into the facility.
The analysts also said the site does not currently appear to be operating as an enrichment facility, based on the absence of certain observable activity.
The location is strategically important. Pickaxe Mountain is a heavily buried granite facility close to Iran's Natanz nuclear complex. Its depth and geology could make it extremely difficult to destroy with conventional weapons.
The development comes at an especially sensitive moment. The International Atomic Energy Agency's board on Wednesday voted to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its failure to provide sufficient cooperation and access relating to its nuclear programme. The resolution passed 23-3, with Russia and China opposing it.
(Gulf News)

Welcome to the 2026 version of Weapons of mass destruction. An exercise in manufacturing consent for the use of nukes as that's likely the only type of weapon that could penetrate a mountain.

It would be pertinent to remember that it was Israeli "intelligence" assessments that led to the current quagmire. Trump ignored his own intelligence agencies and listened to "Fox News" and other media which Netanyahu recently boasted about on Israeli TV:
"And that is what we ultimately did when this unified government I spoke of was established. It also took a long time to bring the United States to this realization.I was able to do it because I had—I don't want to say thousands, but close to 1,000 hours on American television, with the ability to influence in the United States, along with an intimate familiarity with all of its leaders, both those who support us and those who do not. The ability to navigate this field, without which, what are you"
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/92p4YbqvB10

Also people like David Barnea (former director of Mossad) spent time in Washington and Tel Aviv beating the War Drum:

" In the lead-up to the 2026 Iran war, Barnea reportedly assured Prime Minister Netanyahu that the agency could catalyze a widespread domestic uprising in Iran within days of the start of military operations. However, several weeks into the war, intelligence assessments from both Israel and the U.S. concluded that no such large-scale rebellion had materialized, leading to reports of frustration within the Prime Minister's Office."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Barnea

It's also worth considering that Iran may want to be "seen" moving things, they're aware of being under surveillance. It could be a trap to lure engagement and then respond in kind.

There was a letter. Back in 2015. Sent by US Republican senators. I remember it was quite a thing then, and I recall it got a response from Iran. Something along the lines of " Thank you for supporting the Iranian hard liners". Something like that. It was while Netanyahu was doing a US tour against the JCPOA. And that tour included addressing congress. Obama declined to meet him because there was elections in Israel, and the convention is for POTUS not to meet foreign leaders during elections. That was used against Obama.

The Republicans basically said, as soon as Obama is out, so is the nuke deal.

I can't look it up to remind myself what the full story was ( cos internet). This is all I can get on it.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/senators-iran-letter-was-meant-to-be-lighthearted-aides-say/

Yes, the stirring has been going on for a long time.

I do think that if Israel seriously believed that Iran was about to get a nuke, they would use a nuke on Pickaxe mountain.

What the global consequences of that would be is hard to know. I can’t see it leading to a wider nuclear war, as Iran couldn’t fight back, I assume that the Americans would be brought on side ahead of time, and the other nuclear powers wouldn’t want to get involved.

However, I imagine Israel would be severely sanctioned by all bar the U.S.

I am not sure why Iran wants to test this out. Also, long before that, all the entrances will be bombed, wasting the work Iran is doing at the moment. I am not sure what their plan is here.

Thanks, I didn't know about this letter as I only started paying attention to the GOP again after the Donald descended down the elevator in June 2015.

I found the letter, extremely patronising, definitely not a joke and designed to hinder the deal:

"An Open Letter to the Leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

It has come to our attention while observing your nuclear negotiations with our government that you may not fully understand our constitutional system. Thus, we are writing to bring to your attention two features of our Constitution—the power to make binding international agreements and the different character of federal offices—which you should seriously consider as negotiations progress.

First, under our Constitution, while the president negotiates international agreements, Congress plays the significant role of ratifying them. In the case of a treaty, the Senate must ratify it by a two-thirds vote. A so-called congressional-executive agreement requires a majority vote in both the House and the Senate (which, because of procedural rules, effectively means a three-fifths vote in the Senate). Anything not approved by Congress is a mere executive agreement.

Second, the offices of our Constitution have different characteristics. For example, the president may serve only two 4-year terms, whereas senators may serve an unlimited number of 6-year terms. As applied today, for instance, President Obama will leave office in January 2017, while most of us will remain in office well beyond then—perhaps decades.

What these two constitutional provisions mean is that we will consider any agreement regarding your nuclear-weapons program that is not approved by the Congress as nothing more than an executive agreement between President Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei. The next president could revoke such an executive agreement with the stroke of a pen and future Congresses could modify the terms of the agreement at any time.

We hope this letter enriches your knowledge of our constitutional system and promotes mutual understanding and clarity as nuclear negotiations progress.

Sincerely,"

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-and-46-fellow-senators-to-send-open-letter-to-the-leaders-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran/

Though I will concede that Cotton lays out the role of Congress correctly and that remains a major defect of the American system.

On their first day of office Presidents can an do rescind former executive orders (especially when it was signed by the other team). Congress is so partisan that very little important legislation is being passed.

Unfortunately people are still thinking of this rationally, when many actors in this mess are far from rational.

This "war" (in quotations in solidarity with this widow who was denied benefits as this is not a war: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/airman-widow-trump-iran-war-b3045053.html )

is an existential threat for Iran and they will behave as such.

Aragachi famously said when threatened with a ground invasion that "we are waiting for them". Sometimes it's easier to fight on familiar ground.

Then there is the matter of nukes, Trump said that they obliterated everything in June 2025. However images at the time showed a lot of movement prior to these strikes https://thebulletin.org/2026/03/analysis-iran-likely-transferred-highly-enriched-uranium-to-isfahan-before-the-june-strikes/

It takes about 2 weeks to turn 60% enriched uranium to weapons grade 90%. How sure is the intelligence that this hasn't happened? That one of Irans friends hasn't shared a delivery system with them?

On Trump the midterms look bleak for the Republicans, if he's going to lose anyway where's the harm in escalating. Joe Kent has been speaking about how Trump is being briefed on Nuclear use.

Bibi similarly behind in the polls facing jail time might ignite further conflict. The convenient timing of the Haaretz investigation revealing that he had prior knowledge/was warned about October 7th is meant to further damage him.

You’re trying to find some logic but I’m not sure there is much.

Of course the work that Iran is doing at the moment with Pickaxe mountain is pointless. Just propaganda for the internal market perhaps.

Mark Chadbourne

More big news from the fast-changing situation in the Middle East: Yemen's Houthis have now gained control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait after they seized Perim Island, Reuters and AFP report.

Houthi forces have also reached Dhubab, the coastal city directly on the strait, allowing control nearly the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast.

The Houthis are now able to threaten passing ships with artillery and short-range weapons, not just longer-range missiles and drones from further inland.

It’s closed off Saudi Arabia’s attempt to route oil through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass Hormuz.

The Iranian axis can now pressure both both critical shipping chokepoints - around 10% of global seaborne trade passes through Bab-el-Mandeb.

Expect oil prices to rise rapidly.

It's also worth considering that Iran may want to be "seen" moving things, they're aware of being under surveillance. It could be a trap to lure engagement and then respond in kind.

This was my first thought. Provocation.

If the Iran war isn't a war, is it now a pre-emptive military conflict? We need a timeline for describing the action. War➡not war➡ war ➡not war ➡ pre-emptive strike action ➡military conflict. No wonder the world ended up with whiplash.🙄

It’s a ‘special military operation’!

Well Trump does love Putin! And I cam imagine that there have been arguments in the Whitehouse about "Why can he call it that !!"

That's today. Next Monday?

Trump Loses the Other Strait
The Houthi advance is bad news for the U.S., and even worse news for Saudi Arabia.
By Robert F. Worth
^^

As recently as last week, the Iran war appeared to be turning slightly in America’s favor. The Houthis—the Yemen-based militia that is Iran’s most formidable remaining ally in the Middle East—were under pressure from their local rivals, and the Saudi air force was pounding them with air strikes. The president of Yemen’s internationally recognized government issued a triumphant statement declaring that the Houthis’ miscalculations “will open the door to their complete collapse.” With their Houthi partners wounded, Iran’s leaders would have one more reason to back down and agree to Donald Trump’s terms.
Yesterday morning, those delusions drifted away like smoke as Houthi forces broke through their enemies’ defenses and seized the towns and islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the most important maritime choke points in the world.
That loss leaves Trump, who had been hoping to win back control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, with a bitter surprise. His enemies now control both of the two important straits in the Middle East, through which a combined total of about a third of the world’s oil shipments pass every day.

It also underscores a stubborn fact: For all the setbacks suffered by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” over the past year or two, its forces retain an ideological fervor and an esprit de corps that is sorely lacking on the other side. The Gulf states’ failure to work together against the Houthis has been catastrophic, and it echoes Trump’s own failure to devise a plausible or coordinated strategy against Iran.
...
The United States might not be able to do much about this, even if the Pentagon launches a new round of air strikes on the Houthis. (The Saudi leader, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, called Trump twice yesterday urging him to strike the Houthis, Axios reported.) Bombs and missiles would achieve little without a ground force to take advantage of them, and America’s Yemeni allies are now battered and divided. The Trump administration waged a seven-week war against the group last year, and although it succeeded in killing some Houthi commanders, it did not dislodge the group or alter its ability to wage war, as Trump had promised.
...
Iran’s vaunted Axis of Resistance is not a bulletproof covenant either. The Houthis were absent earlier this year when the United States and Israel started bombing Iran.
But unlike their enemies, the Houthis and the Iranians have a deep ideological bond, one that their soldiers willingly die for. And the Houthis do not need to win every battle. As long as they can sink an occasional oil tanker, they will hold a whip hand over their Saudi neighbors, and over the rest of the world too.

The Atlantic.

My take on this development in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is that it puts Trump and his Sec of War under increased pressure to use diplomatic means to negotiate an end to the Iran War special military operation in Iran. When both putting troops on the ground and a nuclear option are off the table the only thing that remains is spin.
Or Trump's green ring.
Or like the $5k promised to every adult American if the Reps win, he could bribe pay Iran to end it and open Hormuz.

That breeched MOU is now proving, in hindsight, to have been a gift horse to the US.

Iraq has ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iraq and Iran as a precautionary measure after the latest drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, two security sources tell Reuters.

The sources say a wide scale operation is underway to pursue perpetrators of the attack on Saudi Arabia.

Arab sources say that Iraq has fully closed the Sheeb and Mandali border crossings too.

Reuters:
“If the Houthis gain control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, their backer Iran could gain a critical advantage in its war with the U.S.
Yemeni government forces indicated they would try to retake areas captured by the Houthis — mountain fighters who withstood years of devastating Saudi airstrikes during Yemen's civil war — in their lightning offensive this week along the Red Sea coastline.
Reuters reported on Thursday that the dramatic Houthi advance down Yemen's Red Sea coast came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran told the Houthis last week to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised more funding, weapons and senior officers to help them do so, two Iranian sources said.
Iran describes the Houthis as an ally but publicly denies giving them military direction, saying they are "not a proxy".
The Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said maritime navigation remained safe for all shipping except Saudi vessels subject to a previously announced ban.”
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump at least twice on Thursday to request U.S. military help in fighting the Houthis, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, confirming an earlier report by Axios.
Washington told Riyadh it was not willing to take direct military action for now but would help with intelligence sharing and targeting, the two sources said.
The White House did not address a Reuters question on any phone calls between the two leaders, but a senior administration official speaking on the condition of anonymity said Washington was in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government.”

Excerpt From
“Saudis shut down oil pipeline as Houthis tighten grip on Red Sea shipping”
Mohammed Ghobari, Eman Abouhassira, Yasmine Ghania
Reuters
https://apple.news/AWAkY_nR2SEyRwCWNTqTC8w
This material may be protected by copyright.

WSJ story about Chinese satellite imagery helping Iran target U.S troops.

It’s all becoming quite problematic for Trump. He’s just not in a position to take on China right now in any sense of the word.

And, it has to be said, China has ostensibly been very modest in its response to the U.S attacking an ally and cutting it off from one of its major energy suppliers.

And, it seems, from the Reuters report linked to above, neither the U.S nor Israel seem to want to help the Saudis militarily against the Houthis. I am kind of guessing defensive munitions are perilously low.

So what options does Trump have left?

Status quo and watch oil explode upwards, and pretend it’s not happening, whilst hoping Iran blink first?

Shock and awe. Massive attack on Iran and Houthis and tolerate some enemy missiles hitting Israel and Gulf states. But would Iran surrender or the strait fullly open? Possible but far from guaranteed.

Surrender and declare victory. Maybe most likely if Iran allows Trump to save even a little face.

www.wsj.com/world/u-s-links-chinese-satellite-imagery-to-iranian-strike-that-killed-three-troops-ca0b4be3?st=Zrn1G6&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Others might think that the widening of conflict in the ME is a problem for Trump while he might beg to differ.

His schedule for today. Huddled in talks with his advisers and gov't officials Watching the Irish Open after a cover story of meeting with the Irish President Connolly, who has criticised US foreign policy in the past, and the PM Martin, who is expected to press Trump on how he plans to end the conflict with Iran and what his objective is for the war.
I wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall at Farmleigh this morning.

This war is costing the Irish Government a lot of money. Lot of rural areas depend on heating oil and the like, and the guv is having to subsidize it. And I think with diesel fuel too. Losing a lot on that.

These unattributed quotes can be quite funny:
"He invited himself to Ireland to see the golf. That’s grand. We need to get him through Dublin as smoothly and trouble-free as possible. Smiling faces, nice pictures, no friction,” a senior Irish government official said."

https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-us-president-donald-trump-irish-open-golf/

I imagine a lot of Irish officials will be quite relieved when it's over

I believe that any critical analysis of actions in the Iran War cannot be taken in isolation. This article is worth a read because Houthi Red Sea control has potential impact on the Iran war and asks the question of whether other countries including the UK could get drawn into the ME mess. Would SA even ask for help from its defense pact allies?

I'm dreading seeing a headline of 'Conflagration in the Middle East". The mention of Suez is ominous, and forecourt petrol is now £1.71+ per litre as we move into the cooler months. Christmas 2026 is setting up to be memorable for sure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/f02d7b70c589e5ce

...
At the very least, it is geared towards heightening disruption, spreading the perception that they can disrupt Red Sea transits at will. Intelligence is increasingly pointing to this latest round of strikes being directed by Iran as part of its wider strategy. As before, though, it doesn’t make a huge amount of difference who is directing whom here, and certainly not if you are a ship trying to sail past.
Now add in Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf. With that strait effectively shut since March, the workaround for Gulf oil has been the East-West pipeline to Yanbu and out through the Red Sea. Flows through the Bab el-Mandeb rose from between four and five million barrels per day (mbpd) last year to over seven between March and July. Now the East-West pipeline appears to have been struck again, adding to the Houthi embargo and the seizure of Perim. The estimate for August and September is under 5mbpd. The two chokepoints are no longer separate problems. Squeeze one and traffic shifts to the other, where it can be squeezed again.
That is the wider lesson about chokepoints. They are cheap to threaten and expensive to keep open, and the tariff arrives in the form of raised shipping prices: the long way round the Cape and extra weeks on every voyage. Ships loading from Yanbu that would have gone southbound through the Bab el-Mandeb have, since the latest Houthi embargo was declared on July 20, been turning right and heading through Suez. Not only is that a huge detour, it increases the risk in Suez itself, which should never be forgotten.
...
A couple of EU Aspides warships are still patrolling the Bab-el-Mandeb as they have been all along, reassuring crews and occasionally escorting the more valuable ships. Will Saudi Arabia send warships this time, reflecting the increase in tension between it and the Houthis? It also looks like there are a couple of US destroyers further up the Red Sea, most likely stationed there to intercept anything fired at Israel or Jordan rather than to police the strait, for now

...
As for us, HMS Diamond performed excellently in the Red Sea against the Houthis. Her sister ship HMS Dragon – now in the region – could do the same. With Hormuz in stalemate but still deemed too high a risk for crewed ships to enter, Dragon could usefully head to the Bab-el-Mandeb and work alongside the Aspides warships.
Much will depend on what she is currently doing – she has been working with the French carrier group rather than the Americans – and on whether she needs to protect RFA Lyme Bay, mothership for the UK’s nascent mine-hunting drone force. The last open reporting had Dragon in Mombasa on Aug 11-12, RFA Lyme Bay likewise, so my guess would be they are currently in the Gulf of Oman or the wider Indian Ocean. Dragon could be in the Red Sea in a few days. It’s good to have options – something navies can do much better when at sea and fully worked up.
The real indicator to watch is the same one as in July. If this is about to seriously escalate, one of the two US carriers will start steaming
west. Given the stalemate in Hormuz, resuming strikes on Houthi launch positions might well be seen in Washington as an achievable win as the midterms approach.
Perim, then, is a small island of minor tactical importance in a narrow chokepoint. What its capture represents though is a pattern: one of escalation and continued chokepoint challenges – a trend I’d suggest we are only in the early stages of. All the world’s navies need to adjust accordingly, not just rely on the US.