US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

Trump done sanction waivers for Russia.
As I understand it, there is a big difference in how sanctions are done. UN sec council sanctions tend the be world wide. But likes of EU sanctions are EU only applied to the EU. And that makes sense. The UN can say nobody is to deal with XYZ. The EU can say nobody in the EU can deal with XYZ. The sanctions can only apply to the jurisdiction.

But the US does unilateral global sanctions. They do their sanctions and expect the whole world to follow their orders.

To me it comes down to representation. The UN represents all UN member states. The EU represents EU member states. The US though.... they expect the world to follow their orders with no representation at all.

History shows us the economic sanctions don't work. The Russians are a tough population, much like the Iranians. They are used to hardship in relatively recent history. Europeans and Americans are not!
Trump had to lift some of the oil related sanctions because he made a massive economic blunder (never mind all the moral and geopolitical concerns) in starting a war with Iran. It was inevitable that the oil price would rise. We knew in advance what would happen wrt the SOH and how that would impact oil, LNG, etc supply. We knew that Russia is a major oil/LNG producer. The fact is that the world, especially the Europeans need Russia's energy, even more so now.
The sanctioning of Russian energy has been terrible for Europe (see Germany particularly) and will only get worse if they actually stop using it altogther, as they have suggested, at the start of next year. I wonder who the Europeans think they will be buying from in a supply constrained world? Those trustworthy Americans?!

Yes but the tide is slowly turning.

Germany recently signed a deal with Canada. I don’t know how this tracks against the loss of Russian oil but Carney made the point that so-called “second nations” should come together.

Thank you. I didn't know about this. I have had a quick google and it looks as if the arrangement only starts in the early 2030s and is only for 2 million metric tons/year to European markets including Germany. This compares with 103-114 million metric apparently being imported to Europe from Russia prior to 2022. That's an enormous difference if correct.
I wonder what Carney means by 'second nations'. Hopefully, it means that he intends to pursue diplomacy!

Different oil type. Takes time and investment to mod the refinery.

Without looking it up, I suspect it will be a private refiner getting a guv grant to diversify it's supply. Private refiners have to do it the most cost effective for their shareholders, so governments need to step in for national security ?

Corporate welfare for capitalists. I am not saying I disagree with that. It's just an example of all the hidden costs.

The second nation thing was about trade and that everyone bar the U.S should trade more together and be more robust about taking on Trump.

Realistically, though, Canada will really struggle to diversify away from the U.S.It would be like Brexit on steroids. Currently nearly 80% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S.

Interestingly, Canada, although they don’t like to talk about it is a commodity economy. Their growth is strongly bouncing back on the back of high oil prices, sp Carney will be quietly happy about Iran. And he certainly won’t mention the environmental damage of getting the low quality tar sand oil out of boreal forest in the sub arctic.

Canadian tar sand oil context for timescale.

https://blackrocksbigproblem.com/cases/tar-sands-pipelines/

The impression I am getting from reading various things in the AP is that China have told Donny to do one, so these sanctions aren’t going to hit Iran nearly as hard as he hoped?

Oh, and the SoH is more shut than open, with only 20% of boats passing through than before this futile, ill thought out war was started.

@trumpredcard ,

Current production is circa $4mio barrels/day, around 3-4% of the entire world’s usage.This is highly profitable, as the infrastructure is already there (breakeven WTI equivalent is around $40/barrel).

It is Canada’s dirty secret. As that article says, the environmental destruction is enormous. And that is excluding forest fires, which given global warming are an increasing risk. A large fire can emit as much carbon dioxide as a major volcanic eruption.

So Iran has granted permission for Iraqi tankers to transit the SoH. The question is, will the US blockade stop them instead.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-grants-permission-number-iraqi-083950595.html

Presumably yes if the ships are travelling to or from Iranian ports.

Why should they go to Iranian ports? Iraq has enough of its own oil which it wants to get out. Question is, what has Iraq promised Iran in exchange for safe passage.

So you are asking a different question now which is what has Iraq promised Iran in exchange for safe passage. The question you asked before was will the US blockade stop them instead.

The US is blockading ships travelling to or from Iranian ports.

That is the whole point. The US blockade is part of the sanctions on Iran. If Baghdad has made a deal with Tehran, you can guarantee it will benefit the Iranians as well. So what will the US do about it?

You've made a good point and I believe many will be looking to see how the US reacts. "Economic D-Day" might have a nice ring to Trump but the rest of the world is waiting to see how it actually plays out.

Several experienced news analysts are pointing out that because of long standing and ongoing sanctions, the Iranian people have shown their resilience to economic pressure and have financial/commercial work arounds. If Baghdad has agreed on a fee to guarantee safe passage what exactly can the US do, bomb them too?

I think there was also something in the news about using indictions and the US capturing said vessels in open water.

You mean that Canada has a lot of heavy oil like Venezuela compared to Russia? Yes, but my point was that it won't make up for the huge reduction in supply. VW have already close their factory in Germany.
I certainly don't agree with corporate welfare! AI are hoping to be next in the queue. I think that's very clear.

The companies/politicians will never let that stop them!
It's all about the mon-ey, mo-ney, mo-ney!
China has been doing the dirty work for the West for a long time too.

Considering China have said they are not going to abide by US sanctions, it will be interesting to see how many others follow suit. Reports of poor moral and fatigue on the carrier fleet are not helping either. As you said, the Iranians have become hardened to the sanctions. I can't see how Trump can sustain this much longer. US relations with so many countries around the world are at a low, even Carney talking about 2nd countries cooperating. Trump should just accept defeat and walk away but he will never do that so I have a horrible feeling this could end very badly.

Agreed! I think there is a high chance this ends very badly.

China do their own dirty work... for the Party.

Not really @RedTagAlan. China is a huge exporter of goods!

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “We've received numerous messages from neighbouring countries about shaping new security arrangements and economic cooperation in the region.

“The United States put the security of every single one of its allies at such risk through bullying and pure disregard for their interests for the sake of Israel that they briefly saw their entire existence on the line.

“A homegrown, independent order is what will actually deliver peace and security.”

https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mto47jclo22m

I don't see why China being an exporter would mean they don't do dirty tricks. Gaining access to markets is one of their tricks. And gaining raw materials.

They also do a lot of UN vote harvesting. Especially in the small South Pacific nations.

People have to realise that the choice isn’t Trump bad/Iran good or vice versa.

Trump was utterly foolish to attack Iran without meaningful war aims or any kind of a coalition. Equally, though, Iran and her proxies are really bad actors in the Middle East. And I won’t grieve for the regime, their military being degraded and their uranium under tons of fractured rock.

And it is the same with the potential peace. Trump needs it for the midterms, otherwise he looks utterly foolish. But the poor Iranian people need it too. They are suffering real hardship from the bombing and the sanctions.

Iran cannot get a bomb. I wholeheartedly agree with that. So they need to give up or degrade the uranium and open the straits. In return they can become a part of the Middle East community. Ultimately they have huge potential as a nation.