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Conflict in the Middle East

US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

1000 replies

RedTagAlan · 13/08/2026 11:40

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

OP posts:
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85
Newbutoldfather · 20/08/2026 12:20

@Twiglets1 ,

I am not saying that nukes don’t matter. They are clearly critical and Iran should never be allowed to get them, but they were deeply buried and inaccessible. They were months to, more likely, years away.

You have to ask yourself, if nukes were the issue, why didn’t Trump continue the 12 day war. Or, as would be more normal, give Iran an ultimatum about giving them up and then try to build a coalition against Iran.

The idea that they were days or weeks away is ludicrous. Iran had a fair bit of work to get that 60% uranium up to the 85-95% required, and then get it correctly configured on to a warhead.

If you read that article or have access to the NYT, where it is covered in far more detail, you will see that the book (which it is based on) is based on good level intelligence.

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 12:26

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 12:14

Thanks Jade, who is the journalist?

Summer Said, Georgi Kantchev and Robbie Gramer.

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 12:54

Newbutoldfather · 20/08/2026 12:20

@Twiglets1 ,

I am not saying that nukes don’t matter. They are clearly critical and Iran should never be allowed to get them, but they were deeply buried and inaccessible. They were months to, more likely, years away.

You have to ask yourself, if nukes were the issue, why didn’t Trump continue the 12 day war. Or, as would be more normal, give Iran an ultimatum about giving them up and then try to build a coalition against Iran.

The idea that they were days or weeks away is ludicrous. Iran had a fair bit of work to get that 60% uranium up to the 85-95% required, and then get it correctly configured on to a warhead.

If you read that article or have access to the NYT, where it is covered in far more detail, you will see that the book (which it is based on) is based on good level intelligence.

Only months away ... or maybe years... well which is it?

We don't know, which is kind of the point as to why they were deemed at risk of developing nuclear weapons.

Note I never suggested Iran were days or weeks away from developing nuclear weapons - but months or a year or a couple of years away away is too soon for comfort. It's not as hard to get from 60% up to 90% as is would have been to get to 60% in the first place.

Not a safe strategy to wait until Iran have already developed them to say ok now they are a threat.

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 13:20

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 12:26

Summer Said, Georgi Kantchev and Robbie Gramer.

Thank you @JadeHare that allowed me to find the article . I've read the whole thing and it doesn't say that there are so many loop holes that this UAE embargo is really only lip service to the US. That is just your interpretation.

It says that If implemented broadly, the U.A.E. step could significantly curb Tehran’s access to foreign currency and global trade networks as the Iranian economy buckles under soaring inflation, sanctions and wartime disruption.

Yes it acknowledges that severing those links will be difficult for the reasons you have copy and pasted.

Even with the U.A.E.’s newly announced measures, tackling that parallel financing web would remain a challenge, analysts say.
“It is doable but with limits,” said Eric Alter, the dean of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, another of the emirates. The government can shut down official banking and major port traffic, but it “cannot police every local partner, every free-zone or every small-vessel movement across seven emirates with different commercial cultures,” he said.

Sounds like the UAE embargo is more than just "lip service to the US" if it goes ahead with shutting down official banking and major port traffic.

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 13:57

The UAE and the Gulf states are in a bit of an economic free fall at the moment. They can’t afford to let this happen. Let alone the massive hit they have taken to their reputation as being a safe place to be. The UAE and the Gulf states are going to do what suits them best, not Donny.

TopPocketFind · 20/08/2026 14:04

To Iran’s political prisoners, trapped ‘between two blades of a scissors’
Open letter

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2026/aug/20/iran-political-prisoners

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 15:28

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 13:57

The UAE and the Gulf states are in a bit of an economic free fall at the moment. They can’t afford to let this happen. Let alone the massive hit they have taken to their reputation as being a safe place to be. The UAE and the Gulf states are going to do what suits them best, not Donny.

Countries do tend to do what suits them best. At the moment the interests of the UAE seem to align with the US. On the 18th August the official news agency of the Emirates reported:

President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan today received a phone call from US President Donald Trump.

During the call, His Highness and President Trump discussed cooperation between the UAE and the United States and ways to further strengthen ties in support of mutual interests.

The two leaders also exchanged views on the latest developments in the Middle East and ongoing efforts to address them.

www.wam.ae/en/article/c1soeb2-uae-president-receives-phone-call-from-president

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 18:14

Those phone calls take place all the time. I’d take it with a bag of salt.

trumpredcard · 20/08/2026 21:27

Trump needs Chinese rare earth minerals but he also needs to implement punitive sanctions on Iran traders. How does that work? 🤔

Embargo Temu and Shein, or will the US have to do a buyout as with TikTok?

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 09:21

BelleHathor · 18/08/2026 09:09

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@rainingsnoring "War is a racket" (a book that everyone should read) was mentioned during this interview yesterday between Robert Barnes and Brandon J. Weichert (both whom have worked in Washington politics and have extensive ties to both military and political insiders) regarding soldier morale.

Interesting points:

From 2 mins discuss the nukes issue.
Timestamp 02.:50 BW: "is a a very odd odd time because you know all of us I think believe with the end of the cold war hey the one thing we can count on is no nuclear war and uh here we are now talking about um apparently and just so the audience knows there's reports that and and I said this three weeks ago to Mario to a lot of push push back but now I'm seeing Malcolm Nance. I'm seeing other people now that I know are connected to the military confirming my original reporting on this show which is that they are discussing at the highest levels using tactical
non-strategic nuclear weapons. So how
likely is this to happen as this war grinds on?"

RB: Well, it's really the third time that Trump has contemplated it. uh contrary
to like you know there was a bunch of
people that interpreted his April 7th post as exaggeration as bluff and there were a lot of reasons why that would be a bad bluff. You know the but putting that point aside what I had heard was that he was actually considering at that point not only wiping out a civilization by mass bombing of power plants and and water facilities and and essential and necessary infrastructure for everyday life. but that he the way in which he planned on doing so was he was contemplating the use of nuclear weapons at that point. And this is a guy who for people don't know, you know, has been persistently paranoid over most of his life and political career against
nuclear expansion. That his uncle John that was at the MIT who actually took over Tesla's uh secret files after the after Tesla died used to warn him about new the dangers of nuclear power, the dangers of nuclear war and how disastrous it could be. And that's why he used to call it the n-word"

Timestamp 05:30 RB: Roy Cohn's you know never you know never admit always attack kind of line of line of approach. But this has taken
on a new life with his new persona and
new personality. He's like, "What's the point of nuclear weapons if we don't use
them?" And he has come to that conviction and he gets enraged when Iran
doesn't do what he wants. He's like, "Fine, I'll show the world. I'm the real boss. We have the most nuclear weapons. We don't, of course." He's been told this repeatedly, but he gets mad and says, "No, no, we do. We have more. We have more." I mean, it's that mindset with Trump.

And so, the first time he was thinking
about was April 7th. There was enough
public blowback. That's when Alex Jones
and Tucker really united in their public criticism of Trump, both fully off the Trump train at that point. That's what led to Trump condemning them personally and so forth.

But it it it got him to back off. Uh and
Vance was able to get a deal done before
anything got completely haywire.

The second time was reported by Larry
Johnson, which came a couple of months
later where Trump was in the situation
room. Uh, and it was the second time he
had to be told no in the situation room
because first he he'd been in the situation room when our plane went down and went utterly nuts and was going berserk and Caine had to drag him out and say, "You need to get out of the situ, Mr. President." Uh, and they literally dragged him out of the room. And but this was the other time was when he was sitting there in the situation room and he broached with General Kaine. He said, "Uh, he goes, "Give me give me the map for nuclear uh where we can hit for nuclear strikes." And Kane was like, "No, no, we're we're not going there, Mr. [laughter] President. No, not doing that." Can you imagine being Kane?

Timestamp 10:55 RB: He goes back to his escalatory path because he can't be
a loser and he must be a kinetic winner.

And that leads to him talking again this
past weekend about uh at Camp David
about nuclear weapons cuz he stopped off
there on the on on the way out this past
weekend. And that's the information that
got to Marjorie Taylor Green. Yeah. And the people that it's a good sign that people leaked it to her because it means there's serious objections to what's going on. That the whenever they object is when it gets leaked. the uh even though this is not the bravest bunch uh by any stretch,

BW: you have to do a full body cavity search to find backbone in these people

RB: completely and it's sad and pitiful but
it tells you how serious it is that they felt the need to leak that people who almost never leak that people who are scared to leak that are scared to stand up to the president felt the need to leak to Marjorie Taylor Green get out there that Trump is back considering nuclear weapons again to try to create public pressure for him to deny it so that he has to step down from that.

The whole interview is informative and "funny" in a Dr Strangelove way, it's definitely a crazy time.

@trumpredcard on South Korea, earlier during the war America moved air defences protecting them to replace the ones destroyed by Iran. It's clear (same with Ukraine) every other strategic relationship is unimportant to Trump.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/redeployment-us-missiles-thaad-south-korea-middle-east-seoul-iran

Thanks @BelleHathor. It's a great interview. They are both very funny too!
I love Brendan's 'here's a set of gold keys' comment. I laughed out loud at that.

The whole think is ghoulish but not 100% unpredictable and certainly not 100% unexpected. We live in dangerous times!

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 09:23

trumpredcard · 20/08/2026 21:27

Trump needs Chinese rare earth minerals but he also needs to implement punitive sanctions on Iran traders. How does that work? 🤔

Embargo Temu and Shein, or will the US have to do a buyout as with TikTok?

It doesn't! Nor does the US bond market work currently, nor that of various other countries. They are in a quagmire, which they helped to set up for themselves.

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 09:27

TopPocketFind · 20/08/2026 08:54

The pretence that this war was about helping the Iranian people is long gone.

That's absolutely clear!

JadeHare · 21/08/2026 10:21

This is an extract from the WP:

“That Oman — a tiny nation across the strait from Iran — again finds itself in Trump’s crosshairs illustrates the extent of his disconnect from realities on the ground, analysts said.
Eyre said that Trump appears to be upset that Oman, acting as a mediator, has been negotiating with Tehran on a deal that could give it partial control of the strait, even though Trump explicitly agreed to Oman negotiating control of the waterway in the memorandum of understanding that he signed with Iran in June.
Although much remains uncertain about why Oman became a target of Trump’s rage this week, Eyre said that the frustration probably boils down to one thing. “He is upset with Oman for the same reason he is upset with South Korea,” Eyre said, referring to Trump lambasting South Korea for refusing to join the war efforts. “Neither have solved his problem,” he said.
The map Trump posted on Tuesday, showing a circle around the Strait of Hormuz under a heading that read “NEW U.S. Territory,” prompted widespread consternation.
“Iran, Fishman noted, has been under U.S. sanctions since 2018. So Trump’s remaining recourse is to ramp up sanctions on Iran’s partners, including China, the UAE and Turkey, he said.
Other options include targeting banks and refineries buying small amounts of Iranian energy and sanctioning banks that hold Iranian assets overseas.
“It’s not a huge list,” Fishman said. “So there’s really not much else to do unless you’re truly willing to completely threaten the entire world with being cut off from the U.S. economy if they transact with Iran.”
That’s what the text of Trump’s post implied, Fishman said. But he added: “I just don’t believe that’s credible.””
“Trump’s rising frustration puts allies in the Persian Gulf — who long sought to avoid the war and have born the brunt of Iranian military aggression — in a tight spot.
Daniel Benaim, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Arabian Peninsula affairs in the Biden administration, said he expects countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the UAE to continue a kind of “balancing act” — maintaining close ties with the United States, while scouting possible agreements with Iran.
“They’re trying to create options for themselves so that they aren’t caught flat-footed no matter what happens,” Benaim said.
Gulf states are exploring diplomatic accommodations with Iran, such as an agreement Oman is trying to secure that may include a toll for vessels using the waterway, he said.
At the same time, he added, they are expanding infrastructure to bypass the strait.
Benaim said he would not be surprised if eventually some Gulf states support the Oman deal to manage the strait jointly with Iran and charge cargo vessels a fee.
“With the right fig leaf, they would support it,” he said, acknowledging that such a deal isn’t ideal. “It’s more important,” he added, “to keep the lifelines of their economies open”

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 12:48

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 12:54

Only months away ... or maybe years... well which is it?

We don't know, which is kind of the point as to why they were deemed at risk of developing nuclear weapons.

Note I never suggested Iran were days or weeks away from developing nuclear weapons - but months or a year or a couple of years away away is too soon for comfort. It's not as hard to get from 60% up to 90% as is would have been to get to 60% in the first place.

Not a safe strategy to wait until Iran have already developed them to say ok now they are a threat.

All wars are bankers wars Twigs.
This is not about nuclear weapons at all. Trump apparently got rid of all Iran's nuclear weapons last June anyway.
It's about the extremely wealthy making even more $$$, resource stealing and the petrodollar.

Trump got very over excited after they kidnapped Maduro and stole Venezuela's oil and then assasinated Khamenei. I thought they could just walk in and steal Iran's natural resources too. He was positively shocked when this didn't happen and the Iranians closed the SOH. He's had a few more shocks since, including the ones relating to the Yen and his own bond market. He's made a massive mistake and history will not be kind to him, just as he deserves.

trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 13:01

Not unexpectedly:

China rejects US push to isolate Iran, says sanctions will not resolve conflict
Beijing urges all sides to pursue political and diplomatic solutions to the war

Gulf News

TopPocketFind · 21/08/2026 13:03

Will the US sanction Russia and North Korea?

trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 13:05

Read into this what you will, as maintaining the current trajectory of the War isn't useful to both countries, or the world.

Time to end war while in position of strength
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Friday it was time to end the months-long Middle East war with the United States because Tehran was in a position of strength over Washington.
"It is better that we bring the war to an end now as we are in a position of power and dignity, and the whole world acknowledges our victory and emphasises that America has attacked our schools, hospitals and infrastructure in violation of all regulations and is hated around the world," he said in a meeting with doctors.
His comments came after Iran's foreign ministry accused the US of "economic terrorism" and "crimes against humanity" after Washington said it would ramp up sanctions to heap pressure on Tehran.
"The perpetrators and instigators of these sanctions are deserving of trial and punishment for committing such heinous crimes," it said in a statement carried by state media.
Gulf News

trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 13:08

@JadeHare I find myself very much in agreement with the journalist from the WP.

trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 13:11

TopPocketFind · 21/08/2026 13:03

Will the US sanction Russia and North Korea?

What a dilemma for Trump, sanctioning his pals Putin and Kim Jong Un. Decisions, decisions.

Newbutoldfather · 21/08/2026 13:12

I think there is a fissure in the Iranian regime. Pezeshkian seems quite reasonable but the hardliners want to hold out.

How rare meeting with Ayatollah failed to fix cracks in Iran regime

www.thetimes.com/article/f81e3652-0f8d-4565-ac31-afd2ef4cda1e?shareToken=fb2edf2f4886b8718951ded6774c5003

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 13:14

TopPocketFind · 21/08/2026 13:03

Will the US sanction Russia and North Korea?

The US has been sanctioning Russia for years and froze their assets in more recent years, which has had major ripple effects globally. I believe they also sanction N Korea.

TopPocketFind · 21/08/2026 13:21

SINGAPORE, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Seven commodity ships sailed along the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, just half the previous day's tally, showed data from shiptracker Kpler, amid concern over risk to Middle East shipping as U.S.-Iran peace talks remain in limbo.

Of the total, four ships entered and three exited the waterway, which was used by nearly a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas before war began in February.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-ship-crossings-hover-single-digits-data-shows-2026-08-21/

RedTagAlan · 21/08/2026 13:25

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 13:14

The US has been sanctioning Russia for years and froze their assets in more recent years, which has had major ripple effects globally. I believe they also sanction N Korea.

The are also the UN sanctions. The UN has the DPRK sanctioned to the hilt.

OP posts:
trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 17:21

rainingsnoring · 21/08/2026 13:14

The US has been sanctioning Russia for years and froze their assets in more recent years, which has had major ripple effects globally. I believe they also sanction N Korea.

Absolutely. I meant additional sanctions seeing how effective the current ones are working. Russia has benefitted enormously from the rising oil prices resulting from the Iran war, and I think I also read somewhere that Trump had to lift some of their oil related sanctions too.

trumpredcard · 21/08/2026 17:41

Newbutoldfather · 21/08/2026 13:12

I think there is a fissure in the Iranian regime. Pezeshkian seems quite reasonable but the hardliners want to hold out.

How rare meeting with Ayatollah failed to fix cracks in Iran regime

www.thetimes.com/article/f81e3652-0f8d-4565-ac31-afd2ef4cda1e?shareToken=fb2edf2f4886b8718951ded6774c5003

As the article mentioned, there have always been differences of opinion between government and IRGC; the true extent of the differences, we don't know or even the balance of power. Looking at how Iran has weaponised propaganda during this war, I am minded to question what the Presidential comments are meant to convey or indeed, cover.

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