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Conflict in the Middle East

US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

1000 replies

RedTagAlan · 13/08/2026 11:40

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

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AlertFish · 18/08/2026 08:06

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RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 08:45

Newbutoldfather · 18/08/2026 07:47

@TopPocketFind ,

Trump had said many times explicitly that his threats do not include nukes.

A quick Google will confirm that.

That does not mean it was not discussed.

Remember the hurricane ?

Axios: Trump floated the idea of using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes headed for US | CNN Politics

Axios: Trump floated the idea of using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes headed for US | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump has floated multiple times the idea of thwarting hurricanes headed for the US by bombing them, including by dropping nuclear bombs on hurricanes to disrupt their course, Axios reported Sunday, citing conversations with sources wh...

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/donald-trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes/

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TopPocketFind · 18/08/2026 08:46

Newbutoldfather · 18/08/2026 07:47

@TopPocketFind ,

Trump had said many times explicitly that his threats do not include nukes.

A quick Google will confirm that.

Trump has also explicity said the Iran's nclear facilities were completely destroyed.

Trump says a lot.

RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 08:50

trumpredcard · 18/08/2026 07:39

The signals this must be sending out to hardliners in Iran are probably not what Trump intended. How committed is the US to throwing military resources into the war with Iran and for how long?
#foreignpolicy #geopolitics #thewest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/18/south-korea-president-trump-military-drills-control-opcon-kim-jong-un

I agree with Trump is cutting those exercises. Not for the same reasons though.

They should be trying to get the DPRK into talks. Not antagonizing them. By all means, have the South Korean military exercise with the US, but do it somewhere else. And no problem small specialized units training together on site, but not these big exercises with 10s of thousands of troops.

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BelleHathor · 18/08/2026 09:09

s

@rainingsnoring "War is a racket" (a book that everyone should read) was mentioned during this interview yesterday between Robert Barnes and Brandon J. Weichert (both whom have worked in Washington politics and have extensive ties to both military and political insiders) regarding soldier morale.

Interesting points:

From 2 mins discuss the nukes issue.
Timestamp 02.:50 BW: "is a a very odd odd time because you know all of us I think believe with the end of the cold war hey the one thing we can count on is no nuclear war and uh here we are now talking about um apparently and just so the audience knows there's reports that and and I said this three weeks ago to Mario to a lot of push push back but now I'm seeing Malcolm Nance. I'm seeing other people now that I know are connected to the military confirming my original reporting on this show which is that they are discussing at the highest levels using tactical
non-strategic nuclear weapons. So how
likely is this to happen as this war grinds on?"

RB: Well, it's really the third time that Trump has contemplated it. uh contrary
to like you know there was a bunch of
people that interpreted his April 7th post as exaggeration as bluff and there were a lot of reasons why that would be a bad bluff. You know the but putting that point aside what I had heard was that he was actually considering at that point not only wiping out a civilization by mass bombing of power plants and and water facilities and and essential and necessary infrastructure for everyday life. but that he the way in which he planned on doing so was he was contemplating the use of nuclear weapons at that point. And this is a guy who for people don't know, you know, has been persistently paranoid over most of his life and political career against
nuclear expansion. That his uncle John that was at the MIT who actually took over Tesla's uh secret files after the after Tesla died used to warn him about new the dangers of nuclear power, the dangers of nuclear war and how disastrous it could be. And that's why he used to call it the n-word"

Timestamp 05:30 RB: Roy Cohn's you know never you know never admit always attack kind of line of line of approach. But this has taken
on a new life with his new persona and
new personality. He's like, "What's the point of nuclear weapons if we don't use
them?" And he has come to that conviction and he gets enraged when Iran
doesn't do what he wants. He's like, "Fine, I'll show the world. I'm the real boss. We have the most nuclear weapons. We don't, of course." He's been told this repeatedly, but he gets mad and says, "No, no, we do. We have more. We have more." I mean, it's that mindset with Trump.

And so, the first time he was thinking
about was April 7th. There was enough
public blowback. That's when Alex Jones
and Tucker really united in their public criticism of Trump, both fully off the Trump train at that point. That's what led to Trump condemning them personally and so forth.

But it it it got him to back off. Uh and
Vance was able to get a deal done before
anything got completely haywire.

The second time was reported by Larry
Johnson, which came a couple of months
later where Trump was in the situation
room. Uh, and it was the second time he
had to be told no in the situation room
because first he he'd been in the situation room when our plane went down and went utterly nuts and was going berserk and Caine had to drag him out and say, "You need to get out of the situ, Mr. President." Uh, and they literally dragged him out of the room. And but this was the other time was when he was sitting there in the situation room and he broached with General Kaine. He said, "Uh, he goes, "Give me give me the map for nuclear uh where we can hit for nuclear strikes." And Kane was like, "No, no, we're we're not going there, Mr. [laughter] President. No, not doing that." Can you imagine being Kane?

Timestamp 10:55 RB: He goes back to his escalatory path because he can't be
a loser and he must be a kinetic winner.

And that leads to him talking again this
past weekend about uh at Camp David
about nuclear weapons cuz he stopped off
there on the on on the way out this past
weekend. And that's the information that
got to Marjorie Taylor Green. Yeah. And the people that it's a good sign that people leaked it to her because it means there's serious objections to what's going on. That the whenever they object is when it gets leaked. the uh even though this is not the bravest bunch uh by any stretch,

BW: you have to do a full body cavity search to find backbone in these people

RB: completely and it's sad and pitiful but
it tells you how serious it is that they felt the need to leak that people who almost never leak that people who are scared to leak that are scared to stand up to the president felt the need to leak to Marjorie Taylor Green get out there that Trump is back considering nuclear weapons again to try to create public pressure for him to deny it so that he has to step down from that.

The whole interview is informative and "funny" in a Dr Strangelove way, it's definitely a crazy time.

@trumpredcard on South Korea, earlier during the war America moved air defences protecting them to replace the ones destroyed by Iran. It's clear (same with Ukraine) every other strategic relationship is unimportant to Trump.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/redeployment-us-missiles-thaad-south-korea-middle-east-seoul-iran

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=1s&v=MT_vuAUONXA

trumpredcard · 18/08/2026 11:15

They should be trying to get the DPRK into talks.
I get what you are saying, but how exactly could this possibly happen except via a massive deception of the American people seeing that Trump's/Maga call is against 'commies'? The DPRK will need a lot to pivot away from China and will China just sit back and let that happen?

My point in posting about the change in SKorean thinking is, as @BelleHathor said, every alliance is unimportant to Trump unless it suits his benefit. Stuff whether it suits the US in the long run. It's also about yet another country reassessing a defence alliance with the US and Iran measuring its ability to grind out the war, as ordinary Americans question Trump's foreign policy decisions.

RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 11:34

trumpredcard · 18/08/2026 11:15

They should be trying to get the DPRK into talks.
I get what you are saying, but how exactly could this possibly happen except via a massive deception of the American people seeing that Trump's/Maga call is against 'commies'? The DPRK will need a lot to pivot away from China and will China just sit back and let that happen?

My point in posting about the change in SKorean thinking is, as @BelleHathor said, every alliance is unimportant to Trump unless it suits his benefit. Stuff whether it suits the US in the long run. It's also about yet another country reassessing a defence alliance with the US and Iran measuring its ability to grind out the war, as ordinary Americans question Trump's foreign policy decisions.

I come from the position that Trump won't be POTUS forever.

OP posts:
JadeHare · 18/08/2026 11:34

This was in the New Republic. There’s a podcast to go with it. Good to see Donny behaving himself as usual.

“The 60-day deadline for a deal between Donald Trump and Iran has passed, and he’s in a lather over it. First Trump raged to Fox News of his displeasure with Oman’s negotiations with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s--t out of them,” he fumed nonsensically. Then, under questioning over foreign policy, he erupted at a female journalist, repeatedly instructing her to “be quiet, be quiet, be quiet” in a vile and abusive tone. Meanwhile, officials leaked their pessimism about the war to Politico, saying things like “we never should have started this war” and revealingly admitting they have no idea what “winning” over Iran even means anymore. Translation: He lost.”

Excerpt From
“Trump Rage Erupts Over Iran as Aides Leak Embarrassing Truth: He Lost”
The New Republic
https://apple.news/AW7zxm2w3TrCL2NgxiKYhfg
This material may be protected by copyright.

Fox News (@FoxNews) on X

BREAKING: President Trump tells @TreyYingst he's in "no hurry" as a backchannel with Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials remains open despite Tehran's public defiance. Trump says Iran is dying and playing its hand like a good poker player, projectin...

https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2089314865412182022?s=20

JadeHare · 18/08/2026 11:35

RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 11:34

I come from the position that Trump won't be POTUS forever.

Thank god!

TopPocketFind · 18/08/2026 13:26

Until then, more madness

US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4
RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 13:40

TopPocketFind · 18/08/2026 13:26

Until then, more madness

Someone is gonna throw UNCLOS at him. The Principle of the Domination of the Land over the Sea.

You cant "own" sea if you don't have attached land. Land attached to that specific part of the sea.

OP posts:
BelleHathor · 18/08/2026 14:43

RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 13:40

Someone is gonna throw UNCLOS at him. The Principle of the Domination of the Land over the Sea.

You cant "own" sea if you don't have attached land. Land attached to that specific part of the sea.

Oh honey, he doesn't care.

Which normal person would compare themselves to Genghis Khan? Trump is on a mission to create his "Trumpire" 🥺🫣 and the weak yes "people" (purposefully being gender inclusive to capture Susie Wiles) won't tell him any different and innocent folk will pay.

The only positive is that he is singled handily destroying all of America's soft power and post Trump (if he doesn't trigger a nuclear war) America will be the modern day equivalent of the post fall Roman empire.

trumpredcard · 18/08/2026 19:25

RedTagAlan · 18/08/2026 11:34

I come from the position that Trump won't be POTUS forever.

Ok, now I understand but I still cannot see it happening, even in the next 20 years.

Generally, think that Trump has set the US on a path where the world is being divided into spheres of influence. 'Withdrawing' from the rest of the world to concentrate on the West might be a policy that a new administration would wish to continue, with modifications. This would be similar to the way that new governments inherit policy and situations that would have cost them dearly at the polls if they had initiated them, but they find useful to keep.

trumpredcard · 19/08/2026 04:42

Oil prices have started increasing again because of more uncertainty in the ME
as growing doubts over a possible peace deal between the US and Iran have increased concerns about disruptions to oil supplies. No surprise there after Trump's post about making the SoH, US territory. The "not long enough" comment must have US sailors policing the Strait even more on edge.

UAE announced a halt to trade and financial transactions with Iran after it detected two missiles from Iran, targeting maritime navigation, which fell into the sea without making contact.
(Gulf News)

Twiglets1 · 19/08/2026 05:32

Yes UAE has imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran. In a statement early on Wednesday morning, the UAEs Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the decision was made in “light of escalations that undermine peace and security in the region”.

“All trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice” it added.

The statement came after the UAE’s Ministry of Defence said its air defences detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, with one falling outside the country’s territorial waters and the other landing within them.

In a follow up statement the ministry said the missiles had been “targeting maritime traffic” and promised to “resolutely confront any attempt to undermine the security of the nation or maritime navigation in the region.”

Tuesday’s strike is the first targeting the UAE since May, and comes days after Abu Dhabi accused Tehran of attacking two of its state owned ADNOC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Mark Kimmit, a retired US general and former assistant secretary of state told Al Jazeera the UAEs trade embargo could hit Iran harder than anything Washington has imposed with Dubai having quietly become Iran’s most important trading partner, edging out both China and Türkiye to supply roughly a third of everything Iran imports each year.

The reliance runs deeper than goods on ships, given Dubai’s standing as a global financial hub, which Kimmit said has long given Iran a discreet way to move money around international sanctions, cutting off a route Tehran has long relied on for years.

Source: Al Jazeera.

Twiglets1 · 19/08/2026 05:45

According to a different source, following the UAEs announcement, Tehran denied any involvement in the missile attacks.

They also issued a statement accusing UAE of “carrying out US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s order for economic warfare against Iran”, calling the UAEs missile attack “fake news”.

Source: Firstpost.

Newbutoldfather · 19/08/2026 10:23

That’s an interesting story.

It seems a huge reaction to two missiles, neither of which found a target, especially given that they carried on banking for Iran in the first phase of the war when they had thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles fired at them.

And Iran are normally keen to take credit for their attacks.

It will be interesting to see any further updates on this one.

TopPocketFind · 19/08/2026 10:32

I hadn't heard of Firstpost but a quick search brings up that they are not the most reliable.

Twiglets1 · 19/08/2026 12:43

UAE’s Trade embargo on Iran and reason for it reported in many other sources now too @TopPocketFind like Reuters, CNN & the Independent.

TopPocketFind · 19/08/2026 12:49

I know @Twiglets1

I am cautious when I see an outlet I know nothing about, and this one was full of red flags. So I thought I mention it.

Twiglets1 · 19/08/2026 12:53

TopPocketFind · 19/08/2026 12:49

I know @Twiglets1

I am cautious when I see an outlet I know nothing about, and this one was full of red flags. So I thought I mention it.

Seems a bit pointless when I had already given a link to the same story in Al Jazeera but ok.

TopPocketFind · 19/08/2026 12:55

It wasn't a criticism @Twiglets1 or aimed at you.

Twiglets1 · 20/08/2026 06:35

Trump threatens economic consequences on any country helping Iran. Or as he puts it, * *"TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences."

He wrote in all capital letters on Truth Social that he was launching "the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country!" He gave no further details, and did not name any other nation.

In Wednesday evening's social media post, Trump said he was launching "economic D-Day" on Iran because the Islamic Republic had failed to make a deal with the US.

Trump continued: "Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies - It all needs to stop NOW. You know who you are."

It comes a day after the United Arab Emirates, a US ally, announced it would be severing all financial and economic ties with Iran, following a new missile threat from the country.

Iranian entities have long used Dubai's financial system to transfer money through exchange houses and shell companies.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2k7e83ynj4o

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 06:39

There is a piece in the Washington Post saying that there is a lot of covert trade passing through Dubai which provides Iran with so many loop holes that this UAE embargo is really only lip service to the US.

RedTagAlan · 20/08/2026 06:43

JadeHare · 20/08/2026 06:39

There is a piece in the Washington Post saying that there is a lot of covert trade passing through Dubai which provides Iran with so many loop holes that this UAE embargo is really only lip service to the US.

Trumps VZ oil money goes through Qatar.

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