US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

The PRC certainly use propoganda to suit their policies. However, I don't think that is any different in the West, where the reporting in the MSM has deteriorated greatly in recent decades. In my opinion, the Western media is extremely manipulative and needs to be critically assessed too.
For sure countries where one party is in power for decades can make long term plans. That's one advantage of this sytem. In the UK, for example, there is no long term planning, just playing politics, unfortunately. It's very wise that China is preparing for the worst, building up their SPR, etc. It is China reducing it's demands on the oil market that has prevented a major economic crisis so far (I wonder what Trump promised them in return).

The thing is, it is undeniable that China has had huge economic success in the past 25 years or so. Their level of growth and development has far outpaced all Western countries and propped up the world economy during the GFC. The quality of life of the population has improved greatly, while that of a good percentage of populations in the US/UK/Europe has fallen during the same period. I don't think this can continue much longer but that's a different topic!

@rainingsnoring agree about China, it's really interesting that they've been drawing down their own reserves instead of buying more Oil on the open market.

Forcing the price of Oil to spike would be the perfect opportunity to take out their big power rival America. It's something that I would do after all the moves that America has been making to take out China.

Venezuela, Iran and to a lesser extent Russia are about removing Chinese access to commodities and destroying their progress.

America is unable to compete fairly, so they sanction and attack in different ways. Ironically the sanctions such as banning Nvidia from selling advanced chips to China, spurred innovation and at least the CCP mandated that Chinese companies develop their own homegrown chips and these have come on leaps and bounds.

Funnily enough China was fine when they were cheap manufacturers of goods and several Western companies rushed to move their factories over there.

I think that we may have discussed how the Chinese think/plan in centuries (as opposed to the West) and destroying America would also damage China as there is still a symbiotic relationship in terms of selling Chinese products and the CCP has not decoupled it's economy enough yet.

You see I would have "taken" Taiwan by now, knowing that America is preoccupied and overstretched with Russia and Iran.

In my opinion, the Western media is extremely manipulative and needs to be critically assessed too

I sometimes refer to reports on the same subject from different world media. This is where an awareness of tone and nuance in word choice makes one acutely aware of how the writer is controlling/manipulating the reader.
On the recommendation of a friend in the UAE, I have started reading local ME news for comparison with commonly consumed media in the West. It tells me what is most important to locals. This is the same reason why I'm grateful when US newspapers are quoted here. (I also don't want to pay for yet another news subscription!)
Critical analysis is essential for forming worthwhile opinions, otherwise we just end up parroting what others have written, and only a superficial understanding of the issues at play.

I've learned a lot from posts on these threads, so thank you, all contributors.

Yes, China reducing their oil purchases was really unexpected. I saw several oil/commodities experts predicting breakdown in the Summer, having not anticipated China's change in behaviour. That's why I said, I wonder what Trump promised them in return (there was a large US visit to see Xi a few months ago).

The US seems to have totally failed to anticipate China's moves in advance since signing the World Trade Agreement in ? 2000. The US response has then been to blame China instead of being even a tiny bit introspective and looking at the failures of US policy. It all followed the Neoliberal playbook of large corporations making ever increasing profits. The guy on the street has put up with it for so long because the goods were much cheaper than home made ones. In my opinion, we have reached a turning point in the last few years, perhaps even since the GFC.

It's interesting what you say about what your personal response would have been. Perhaps it's a demonstration of what we have been saying about the differences in approach East vs West. I think the Chinese don't want the oil price to spike overall though because that would also have terrible effects on their own economy. I'm not sure a fighting war on Taiwan is what the Chinese plan. I need to ask my Chinese friend when I next speak to her!

Quote " You see I would have "taken" Taiwan by now, knowing that America is preoccupied and overstretched with Russia and Iran."

Maybe you would have, but the PRC are not ready. Next year at the earliest. Still don't have enough kit. And the reason the US are overstretched in Iran is because they can't, even under Trump, deploy all. They still have a fleet in Japan. The big danger is that Trump is running what has that is free into the ground. And there is the ammo count.

On chips. Their claim to have made their first AI from cheaper chips was debunked last year. Yes, they have made a lithography machine to do the small nanometer chips ( can't remember the numbers sorry): they copied from the Dutch company.

Stuff like this from 2023 :

China launches first open-source desktop computer operating system OpenKylin 1.0 - Global Times

It's a Linux distro. Go on Github and you can download it for free. The whole Github thing is interesting on it's own. It was unblocked, then blocked, now partially blocked. It is the forum parts that are now blocked. But word is, they had to unblock GitHub to be able to use Linux.

Stuff like this :

Huawei launches PCs running self-developed operating system - Chinadaily.com.cn

It was/is Google.

Bingo, I was going to add that I acknowledge that my thinking is the product of growing up, being educated and consuming information in the West. Michael Moore used to.be so good on how the working clases were destroyed by neoliberal policies.

Funnily enough, when we've been discussing the situation elsewhere in the conflicts in the region, it's been those in the West saying fight back harder and don't trust the West and those in the East urging restraint and diplomacy.

I guess from my POV, history shows that "we" in the West are the biggest hypocrites or as Lavrov put it agreement incapable (look at the MOU). How many terrorist groups have "our" intelligence agencies funded/trained all over the World who've gone on to massacre local populations. "We" put Jolani a head chopping terrorist into power in Syria and have the temerity to talk about morality.

I see that America never stops once it has an enemy/rival, so my way to "win" would be offense as the shadow war always turns kinetic.

There is a big difference though.

Western media are free to decide what to report or not. If the Mail decides to do anti Iran articles, or anti migrant, then they are free to do that.

Not so in authoritarian countries. The media in those places have to print what they are told to. Or have it approved.

Yes, Fox is the propaganda wing of the Repug Party. But it is a private citizen/ organization doing that, and other orgs are free to criticize them. Not so in authoritarian states. All news is controlled by the Party.

That's right. We are all a product of our upbringing. I always verge towards diplomacy over war personally, perhaps as a result of being part of a multi cultural family and perhaps as a result of having a pacifist father and paternal GM, influenced by her awful experience of the WWs. Now, as an adult, I can see that war is a racket and so detest it for that reason too!

I also dislike the hypocricy of The West, which is happily swallowed by large parts of the population, including some on here. I've mentioned Jolani on here before as one, small example. I don't think the US will be able to continue as they have been forever. Perhaps this war in Iran might mark a turning point for them in terms of their influence and power. Either way, the events of the last few years, even 18, have all been very 'Fourth Turning'.
I do remember Michael Moore but can't recall seeing those documentaries. I was probably knee deep in nappies at the time!

That was very likely true historically but I think there is less of a difference now.

What happens if The DM or The DT suddenly decide to publish something pro Iran or pro immigration? I'm sure their owners would not allow it. The Daily Telegraph, for example, has an open pro Israel stance. The reality is that the big media bosses and the politicians/those who pull the strings of the politicians are all in bed together.
We also discussed, just as an example, the case of Colonel Baird recently, whose life was made impossible because he expressed views that the European leaders did not like. He did nothing illegal and was not offered a court hearing to defend himself. Albanese is another example.

But it is not Government.

You mention Colonel Baird. I think that was the fella sanctioned by the EU because they said he was shilling for Putin?

I agree, from what I have seen of that, that this is EU overreach. But it was elected reps that voted for it. Not big media bosses.

Shills are a difficult one. Galloway for example, shills for the CPC. Should he be silenced from the media ? I say no. But if an individual is parroting the Party line from an authoritarian Government, then certainly a tag on their social media is warranted ?

And of course the billionaires who own the press will support right wing parties. That is well known, because the same parties push for low tax.

I would say that the government and the media work together on this issue. Quite a few politicians were in the media prior to moving into politics.

Is there actually any objective evidence that Baird is a Russian shill or that Galloway is a Chinese shill? I'm quite sure that financial transactions could be monitored and published. I haven't seen any evidence of this sort being published. As I said, Baird had no court hearing and was unable to defend himself. That is incredibly authoritarian imo. The way it appears to me is that smear campaigns are instigated against some individuals who criticise their own government and point out, what they see as, positive actions by foreign governments. There was also a major smear campaign brought against Corbyn because he wouldn't fall into line.
Once you have seen examples, it's hard to not see the hypocricy behind the 'we are the land of the free, a Christian Democracy, we love free speech, etc' lines.

Quote "That's right. We are all a product of our upbringing."

And that applies to pretty much all, to an extent. It also applies to Trump. And Iranians.

As an example of propaganda. In a group chat just now, one the folk is reading about the Bounty. Bligh is the baddy right ?

But no. In the group we are looking up historical evidence. Transcripts and statements, and now it is 2 out of three that Fletcher was the baddy. The original who said he was the baddy, and who started the subject, happens to be an ozzie. And they blame Bligh for the death of Cook. It is ingrained into the culture. Fletcher good, Bligh bad.

Historically, at the time and for generations, the Christian family were trying to make him the goodie. And that ties in with ozz national sentiment.

It's a really stupid example, but I think it is also a good example of what becomes a global belief might actually be based on a 200 year old revision of history.

I find with Iran and the US, those of us on the sidelines can be more objective. But we need to apply that to any opinion we read about it, and have to be careful of being swayed by folk who might not be objective.

This is something I see often re the PRC. People saying they plan centuries ahead, do what they do for the people etc. But that is what the CPC wants people to think. And they spend a lot of fucking money doing it.

Compare that to the west, or the UK. Does the UK government have a budget for propaganda ? And yes, we can say money spent on tourism budgets is propaganda. But that is not the same as if labour were spending 2 billion a year to make people of the world think the French are bad, and labour is the best government in the world.

What UK media do you think the Burnham Government tells what to print ?

Quote : "Is there actually any objective evidence that Baird is a Russian shill or that Galloway is a Chinese shill? "

In the case of Baird, the EU said yes. And for the record, I disagree with the sanctions. I think tagging his social media is enough. "State sponsored content".

Galloway ? It has been a while since I followed it, but yes, an objective case could be made, but there is actually no UK law against it. That would be against free speech.

Donny being his usual diplomatic self. From the Telegraph just now:

“Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of talks with Iran.
The president threatened to attack the US ally after Iran said it was in negotiations with the Gulf country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s--- out of them,” Mr Trump told Fox News.
The 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran is set to expire on Monday.
Earlier this month, Tehran said it had agreed a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, which sits on the other side of the vital waterway.”

Second time he’s threatened Oman!

Excerpt From
“Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Iran deal”
Emily Smith
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/ABPtjnFfcTvaGPkCQtwUG4Q
This material may be protected by copyright.

Who is this Colonel Baird?

Threatening to bomb Oman

And the MoU is expiring today

It's going great

More than that too, there have been discussions in Washington again about Nuking Iran:

Former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted this:

"They are discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings.

Yes you read that correctly. It’s real. I’m not speculating, I know.

And it’s pure evil.

The last time a nuclear weapon was used was August 6th and 9th of 1945 on two cities in Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, immediately killing 110,000 people, vaporizing people at ground zero, and total deaths reached 214,000 by the end of the year from severe burns and trauma.

But the extreme suffering continued for the Japanese people from radiation sickness, skyrocketing cancer rates, and generational birth defects.

Not to mention wiping out all means of their economy.

And the suffering was so great that all of humanity vowed, “never again.”

Trump and his admin were told by our own intelligence that Iran was no where near creating a nuclear weapon, then Israel said the same line it’s repeated for decades, “Iran is only weeks away.”

So we bombed anyways, killed their leaders and innocent little children in a school, and Iran has controlled the Strait of Hormuz ever since and punished the region for their part in it.

And now our government is the one actually discussing lowering the nuclear threshold in order to use nuclear weapons against Iran even though Trump claims he’s won the war like 40 times and says the U.S. controls the SoH.

Trump promised no more foreign wars, but may actually be the one who delivers a nuclear holocaust that would likely drag the entire world into major conflict, economic depression, and mass human suffering we’ve never seen in our lifetimes and maybe throughout history.

People need to speak out and boldly stop this insanity.

America is not untouchable.

If and when that happens, everyone, and I do mean everyone, will hold ALL of those in leadership right now fully responsible for the rest of human history.

Do not use nuclear weapons and stop this war NOW."
https://x.com/FmrRepMTG/status/2089069623706603837?s=20

Someone needs to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump otherwise the whole World will pay a bigger price than they're already paying due to this war of choice.

Discussing their new book : 'Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump', co-authored with Maggie Haberman. Jonathan Swan said:

"I think it's indisputable. I mean, we've already seen this, and we've already seen that international law has absolutely no restraining effect or international institutions on Donald Trump. The concept is almost laughable that any of these institutions would have any effect on his thinking. He does want to be seen as sort of the great man of this period of history, you know, and he's not comparing himself to Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan. He's comparing himself to Napoleon and Alexander the Great and William the Conqueror and Hitler and Stalin and Mao and whatever, with no moral dimension to it, just raw power. But in some senses, his vision is shrunken because, you know, for the last, since the world, since the end of the Second World War, America has led the world, has been at the head seat of the table in the international community, has built these institutions, has led these institutions. And really, where Trump is taking things is America as a sort of regional superpower, creating space for others, particularly for China. We have a scene in our book where Trump holds up a little teaspoon to dramatize his point, and he says, this is Taiwan. And the point is, it's this puny, insignificant island many, many miles away in China's neighborhood. What are we really going to fight China for this little teaspoon? And actually, these concepts of democracy, human rights, values that America supposedly defends have no interest in them. And in fact, sees defense of them as naive and self-defeating. So America is giving all of that up under Donald Trump and instead becoming the master of the Western Hemisphere."
https://podcastrex.com/shows/politics-weekly-america/trump-unbound-the-making-of-an-imperial-presidency/transcript?q=He%27s+comparing+himself+to+Napoleon+and+Alexander+the+Great+and+William+the+Conqueror+and+Hitler+and+Stalin+and+Mao+and+whatever%2C+with+no+moral+dimension+to+it%2C+just+raw+power.&t=1019040#moment

Oh, the Marjorie Taylor Greene who has:

promoted Islamophobic, antisemitic, and white supremacist views including the white genocide conspiracy theory,[8][9] as well as QAnon, and Pizzagate.[10][11

I am not sure she would either know or be able to accurately relay what was going on in ‘strategy meetings’. There is no way the U.S would use a nuke first. Even if Trump were mad enough to (which I severely doubt) a way to stop it happening would be found.

Yes she is vile but hard to disagree with on the Epstein Files and this.

How would she know secret things discussed in strategy meetings if she's a former congresswoman?

And why would we consider her tweets a reputable source if she has in the past promoted Islamophobic, antisemitic, and white supremacist views?

@TopPocketFind ,

She is incredibly easy to disagree with!

Do you honestly think the U.S is thinking of nuking Iran?! What would they gain from it? And how would the Chinese respond?

I just cannot imagine it.

(And, regardless of her views, anyone who believes in Qanon and Pizzagate is a verified loon!)

Have you read Trump's posts on obliterating Iran? It's not that hard to imagine that he wants to nuke them.

And I have already said she is vile, sometimes even vile people talk sense.

The signals this must be sending out to hardliners in Iran are probably not what Trump intended. How committed is the US to throwing military resources into the war with Iran and for how long?
#foreignpolicy #geopolitics #thewest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/18/south-korea-president-trump-military-drills-control-opcon-kim-jong-un

@TopPocketFind ,

Trump had said many times explicitly that his threats do not include nukes.

A quick Google will confirm that.

@trumpredcard ,

The U.S lacks smart munitions at the moment and they will take years to replace.

They spent too much on systems and too little on what is termed ‘the magazine’, ammunition and missiles.

I can’t imagine they want to waste their current stock on drills.