US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

I don't agree with you. I think the chances that the US/UK/Europe would join Turkey in its defence against Israel are extremely close to zero.

I think that NATO has become rather a paper tiger with the weakening of Europe over the decades including their defence forces. The US under Trump has made comments about pulling out of NATO and Europe needing to defend itself. Clearly, the Europeans are desperate that this does not happen. I'm absolutely sure that Putin knows all this already. I don't want to start talking about Russia on this thread but I don't agree with your reasoning here either.

@Squeezingwildoranges ,

‘I believe it was the plan that once Iran had been dealt with which the US and Israel mistakenly thought would have taken a matter of days, they would turn their attention to Turkey. All this is part of the plan to make Israel the dominant power in the Middle East by degrading all other potential threats’

I think that is fantasy.

Netanyahu, whatever your opinion of him as a man, is intelligent and disciplined.

Why on earth would he try to confront a NATO member with a modern army, a GDP twice Israel’s, no border with Israel, 8x the population and 40x the surface area?! Not only would Israel not become the dominant power, it may well end up severely degraded itself.

I think Israel would only take Turkey on if it genuinely feared an existential threat. And that would be truly scary as, absent of conventional ways of winning, Israel’s nukes could be on the table.

Netanyahu, whatever your opinion of him as a man, is intelligent and disciplined.

Is he? Is Donny?

I think Israel would only take Turkey on if it genuinely feared an existential threat.

That old chestnut…..

@JadeHare ,

Netanyahu is, Donny isn’t, simples!

That ‘old chestnut’ has meaning. Israel does feel threatened, whatever the truth is.

But, if you disagree, why and, more importantly, how would they attack Turkey and expect to win (whatever that means)?

Bibi is a narcissist. He should be in jail. He should sack those right wing racist fascists in the Israeli government, but he doesn’t. He’s desperate to stay in power so he doesn’t go to jail. Hence he quietly backs them by saying nothing. Wound’t want him to be my Prime Minister.

Israel needs to get back to its original borders. Agree to a two state solution, leave the West Bank and jail those thugs/terrorist settlers. It needs to leave Lebanon and Syria and if it needs a so called “buffer zone” to make it feel safer then make it is Israeli territory not Lebanese and Syrian territory.

Lebanon needs to get rid of Hezbollah. They have done nothing for Lebanon. Much like the settlers have done nothing for Israel, except cause violence.

Needless to say, Gaza need to get rid of Hamas. They are trying. However, they need more international help. Guess what? Israel says no.

If Israel decide to attack Turkey I won’t be suprised. It won’t be because they perceive it as a threat though.

@JadeHare ,

I basically agree with the vast majority of what you have just posted.

However, nothing you say about Netanyahu contradicts the fact that he is intelligent and disciplined. He can be both and a cynical narcissist.

I still have no idea what you believe Israel would stand to gain by attacking Turkey, though.

Our opinion of him differs very greatly. I see a psychopathic madman along with many others around him but let's leave it there. I have no idea how Israel could even begin to think about attacking Turkey. I would imagine it would work if the US were to be involved but that would only happen if Israel could be belligerent enough it could instigate an attack of some form by Turkey. The US would then have to choose a side. Although Turkey is a NATO member, Article 5 specifically says that "an armed attack against one NATO member in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all members,". I suppose the US could say that Turkey was the aggressor if they attack first.

I have no idea but I do know that Israel has gone from diplomatic hostility to open, kinetic belligerence and reclassifying Turkey as an immediate military threat. The Nagel committee report officially advised the government to adjust its defense budget and military readiness to prepare for a potential military conflict with Turkey.

Additionally Naftali Bennett and members of the Israeli security establishment publicly classified Turkey as the new Iran warning that "after Iran, we will not remain idle".

It might just be rhetoric at the moment but looking at Israels history, I'm not so sure.

Well we can agree to disagree about Bibi.

I have no idea what Israel stand to gain by attacking Turkey. I do know that the longer Israel is at war, then the longer Bibi can postpone his trial and keep his sorry ass out of jail.

Israel going to war with Turkey has been rumbling around in the AP for the last couple of months. So clearly it’s not just people on this thread who think it could happen. Not a definite of course, but could.

Going on posts above, a WWIII could end up being the unintentional war. One where countries became so enmeshed in their belligerent and unrealistic threats that they ended up backed into a corner, but unwillingness to admit 'defeat' then leading to foolish acts of attack.

This is making me look at the US decision in Viet Nam differently. Just declare victory and leave. It's one way of saving face.

This was at the end of the CNN article I posted:

Netanyahu is known to believe that a security emergency is a last-resort option that could reshuffle the deck and improve his chances of surviving these elections,” Harel said. And with Trump constraining Israel’s war on Iran and limiting its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, he said, “Turkey-Syria becomes a potential front. This raises, at the very least, a strong suspicion that political considerations are involved as well

I sometimes think that people (and even people who should know better in the media) don’t understand the military reality).

Israel’s iron dome depends on expensive sophisticated missiles and they have expended most of them. They take years to restock. There were reports that Israel had started being selective about which ballistic missiles to shoot down (meaning many were allowed to get through). There was also talk of Israel censoring the damage it was taking from Iran. I have no idea whether this is true.

They just aren’t in a position to attack another country now which has a significant ballistic missile threat. Even the U.S is suffering the same problem. They have relocated missile defences from South Korea to the Iranian theatre.

🤷‍♀️ I don’t write the news. Don’t shoot the messenger.

I think the US would love to do that. The problem is Israel. If the United States decides to cut its losses, accept a strategic defeat, and walk away from a war with Iran, Israel would face what its leadership would view as an existential, doomsday reality. It doesn't have the capability to take on Iran on its own, let alone against other actors in the region as well, in a conventional battle. Once the oil starts flowing again, money will be pouring into an emboldened Iran and it would pass the nuclear threshold in no time. I think Israel would immediately trigger the Samson option and god knows where that will end up. This stupid war of choice has ended up literally putting the US between a rock and a hard place and I think we are closer to nuclear war than we were in 1962.

I don’t get this weord idea that Israel is trying to invade the whole middle east. It doesn’t touch reality at all. Wars cost money and the ones Israel are fighting it considers to be necessary for long term security. No-one spends money on this unless absolutely necessary.

What would be the motivation to attack Turkey?

An interesting perspective i’ve heard on this is that by basically forcing the gulf countries to account for their own security and take over the Americans can start withdrawing resources from the middle east, it soaks up a lot of cash. Attacks on the gulf have come from Iran, Yemen and Iraq. The gulf cannot pretend it doesn’t know who it’s enemies are.

I read that Iran was still paying Hezbollah widows but not a lot of it’s own soldiers. You can’t eat oil.

It’s not just pressure it’s complete collapse. The USA has already started ringing around and basically told anyone with anything to do with Iran to stop. I thought it was interesting that a few weeks ago the emiratis said they would be closing all financial access to Iran. I was frankly surprised it was still allowing them to use it’s system at all.

Regional hegemony and the Greater Israel project.

THe UAE are so deeply embroiled with Iranian money laundering, they most likely will continue.

From the WSJ a few days ago:

“But severing those links will be difficult. Much of the activity is deliberately obscured. U.S. sanctions orders in recent years show that oil revenues, foreign-currency trades and payments for Iranian entities have long moved through shell companies and exchange houses in Dubai, often without an Iranian name appearing on the transaction.
Cutting off Iran would also require Emirati authorities to crack down much more aggressively on opaque financial and trading activity, which could hurt Dubai’s role as a freewheeling global hub for commerce, capital and re-exports.
“When you look at Iranian sanctions evasion and Iran’s ability to earn money from illicit oil sales, Dubai is a major hub for illicit financial flows,” said former U.S. sanctions official Max Meizlish, who is now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The U.A.E. taking action against direct trade and financial activity is important but the reality is that a great deal of indirect activity flows through banks in Dubai supporting Iran’s shadow-banking and illicit-financing operations.””

I agree with you about the risk of a nuclear war and have said the same on here before. It is frightening how out of control this is already and how it could get much worse.

You had better question the Israeli leaders who are making comments about Turkey being a huge threat and threatening action.
'No-one spends money on this unless absolutely necessary.'
Where do you get this idea from? The US has fought multiple, completely unnecessary wars. Israel says that all their wars are because of an existential threat but this defies logic.

You can’t eat oil.

I presume that this is a physical act view rather than a metaphorical one. Previous posts have been on the value of wide scale smuggling of oil into Pakistan, using a barter system, money laundering to facilitate oil sales. Add in the craptoe word and taking in all the possible workarounds, yes, you can eat sufficient oil to survive.

I agree with @JadeHare on UAE announcement to cut financial ties with Iran. Saying what the US wants to hear but then, I suspect, going about reduced business under the table.

What is in 'complete collapse' in your opinion? Yes, the US is trying their usual bully boy tactics. Do you think China and Russia will comply? Are you assuming that the new US tactics will work? They sound pretty desperate to me.
As @trumpredcard says, you might not be able to literally eat oil but it is essential for everything that is of economic value. Iran is far, far more self sufficient in terms of energy and food than say....the UK.

CIA Director Ratcliffe visited Moscow yesterday.

There have been suggestions that the visit could have been related to a potential ceasefire in Iran or the possible inclusion of additional parties in negotiations,

Nothing official has been confirmed about the purpose of the visit, just that he didn't meet Putin