AIBU to think Andy Burnham might call a general election soon?

[Mywishistoclimbthe3peaks]

To think Andy Burnham will call a general election before Christmas? Yes it would be a massive roll of the dice but,

Reform - don't have the numbers for a GE and there's all frog faces suspicious money bringing him a lot of heat.

Torys - kemi doesn't have a lot of depth, I feel and she hasn't changed much in the polls. She's good at the dispatch box but let's face it anyone could stand up and insult the other side.

By calling a GE Andy would have his own mandate and break the deadlock of the back benchers.

Not being unreasonable = he needs to call a GE

Your being unreasonable = Robotic Kier and Ratchet Reeves have gone and Andy just needs to get on with it now.

Is Reeves at Starmer’s farewell or has she done another runner?

Edit: she’s there.

The media and SM were gunning for Labour too at that time, it was not just the Tories, but they obviously got more as they were in Government. But the Tories didn't get anywhere near the same volley of vile smear stories and conspiracy theories. Those ramped up as soon as Labour got in, especially after the Southport murders.

Starmer could quite easily have called one when Burnham won Makerfield. If he were as self-serving and egotistical as Burnham that would have been his fuck you to Burnham, the Back benchers and the rest of the backstabbers. As it happens, he has put his party first. That's going to stay in Burnham's face before he even gets going today.

That would have been madness though. Labour would have crashed out and Starmer holding the can on that outcome:

They do indeed. On that we're agreed, and if the Tories ever get back in they'll do it too. It's part of the playbook now. I don't think that's a good thing, but like the other downsides of social media we appear to be lumbered with it until a critical enough mass of people ignore it. However, it remains a fact that this scene was already well established before Labour's last period of opposition.

No way will he call an election. If he doesn't lose the election he would certainly lose a huge number of MP's. Yes many of them are inexperienced, truculent ideological and impossible to work with but he has to cobble together a cabinet somehow. Shabana Mahmoud and Wes Streeting are on very slim majorities and may well lose their seats. He probably needs to keep the threat of a GE in his back pocket if he wants to do the impossible and 'unite the Labour Party'.

Or perhaps Starmer put his country first, because it would have been hugely destabilising to call a GE which would then end in a hung Parliament.

Yes but by scene I mean the power of social media and its impact on politics. That is more recent than Brown or May, or Cameron.

It’s really picked up in the last few years, since partygate.

Exactly, which is why he's gone out having put both party and Country first. Arguably, in the case of the country, of course. That is going to be a huge legacy when or if Burnham fails. That option he didn't take is always going to be a reminder. More pressure on Burnham.

Agree, I cross posted with you.

Labour MPs did this. The media can't get rid of a PM. They could call for an election over and over. Council elections don't get rid of leaders. Thatchers first local council elections had worse results than Labour got. If the party had been united they had a huge majority that could have faced down the media and sat it out. Reform and the Greens are on a downward trajectory ( after the media exposed things about them too) . The only people who have caused the removal of Starmer are his own party, which he stated at his resignation speech. Labour are to blame for this. There are already factions turning on Burnham. They refuse to take a look at themselves and would rather blame literally anyone else for their problems. Usually the media or the electorate. Never themselves.

Personally, I think he should. I am well aware that we have a parliamentary democracy and that at a General Election, we vote for our local MP, and not for the Prime Minister. However, Burnham was not even in parliament a month ago.
However, the labour party have a massive labour majority, so he would be foolish to call one.
ie Morally should, but he won't.

A solid post - agree with much of what you say.

Labour = Level down

Why isn't Badenoch a fan of a GE - she knows Reform would get in? She certainly knows the Tories would be struggling.

Whereas the one I know voted for Sunak because Truss was “mad as a box of frogs”.

Because unless you happen to have a time machine about your person, neither you nor I can do anything about what happened in 2022.

The best time was then, the next best time is now.

A Labour party in opposition certainly didn't have the power to drive that level of change. It's a trend that had been happening for a number of years, was escalated probably during covid when more moved online, and goes well beyond anything one political party could do. That includes even the one in government at the time. Not surprisingly, already established patterns of oppositions calling for GEs using whatever channels get them most attention are expressed through the channels that get them most attention.

Why would a party that won a mandate to rule for 5 years call a GE after 2 years? That would be utterly mental. Let them get on with the job.

Labour overall including supporters set the scene. Mn is an example, but obviously across the board, btl on press too. No one from Labour said hang on maybe we should hold back on this, they will say it now as they’re under the spotlight.

Should Burnham call an election? No. He should get on with the job of sorting this country out & making life better for ordinary working people. Changing PMs between General Elections is perfectly normal in the U.K. The Labour Party won the 2024 election, not Starmer personally, and it’s for them to decide who their leader should be. Just as the Conservative Party, not Boris Johnson personally, won the 2019 election.

Will he? No, I think it’s extremely unlikely. This is a guy who has been trying to get the top job for 16 years so he’s not going to gamble with it now. Labour has a legitimate mandate to govern for 3 more years, it currently has a massive majority which will allow him to do big things & force them through parliament. Labour is trailing in the polls and that shows no sign of changing.

Yes Labour MPs did this, I agree they are responsible but the calls for SM to stop criticising from Labour are slightly separate. They were happy to use the same to their advantage.

ETA agree Labour blame others too much over MPs for the ousting but a different issue to Labour now wanting SM to calm down to their benefit.

Those MN posters are very quiet now, bar a few. I guess their huge expectations on the incoming adults taking the reins fell rather flat.

Why doesn't Charles refuse to accept Starmer's resignation - do something useful for once

They didn't. There is no definition of 'set the scene' that will back up your claim. The tendency to call for GEs already existed and was not set by Labour, and the escalation of social media importance wasn't either. These things are facts.

It is true that Labour didn't say hang on, and it's also both a different point and a goalpost move. They didn't call for change and instead continued practicing an already established tradition, they couldn't possibly have done anything about the social media spiralling because they didn't have the power. For balance, this all applies to the opposition who are doing it now.