AIBU to think Andy Burnham might call a general election soon?

[Mywishistoclimbthe3peaks]

To think Andy Burnham will call a general election before Christmas? Yes it would be a massive roll of the dice but,

Reform - don't have the numbers for a GE and there's all frog faces suspicious money bringing him a lot of heat.

Torys - kemi doesn't have a lot of depth, I feel and she hasn't changed much in the polls. She's good at the dispatch box but let's face it anyone could stand up and insult the other side.

By calling a GE Andy would have his own mandate and break the deadlock of the back benchers.

Not being unreasonable = he needs to call a GE

Your being unreasonable = Robotic Kier and Ratchet Reeves have gone and Andy just needs to get on with it now.

They can have a coalition with both at the same time.

What are 'manoeuveres' - you mean politicians acting politically?
Not all politicians start angling for the top job any time the faintest of cracks appear in a leader's popularity. Another function of politicians is to stick around long enough to serve the people who voted for them rather than chasing every 'opportunity'.
And in the case of a mayor, you are voting for an individual much more than when we vote in a GE.

Name calling is so childish

He stuck around for ten years as Manchester mayor.

If he's not the Messiah, Manchester will be fine with a new mayor. If he is the Messiah, it's good he's PM as he'll be able to do more from there.

He does like buses a lot!!

That’s because the wheels go round and round.

How long do you think a Frankeleft coalition will last?

The prick Steve Bray doing his overgrown toddler antics in Downing Street. Twat.

In any normal world he’d be a middle manager at a transport company. It’s crazy that he’s Prime Minister of the UK. I sort of think we deserve what we’re going to get.

And all that is due to 2 years of Labour? Nothing to do with 14 years of Tories. Nothing at all.

No idea. Until Burnham called a GE I suppose. After which it would be down to the electorate. I'd be surprised though if PR wasn't part of the price of the coalition, which Burnham appears supportive of. After which it would be coalitions all the way.

Yeah I get that I just wondered is there even polling about them getting the highest number of seats? All I'd seen was stuff extrapolating from intended vote size, but with there being an obvious anti-Reform tactical voting bloc that may overestimate the number of seats they could win.

Agree that a hypothetical left coalition is probably going to piss anti-left people off more than a solo Labour government, albeit maybe the Lib Dems would have some impact.

The things you describe don't and can't mean them setting the scene, so obviously they wouldn't be read that way.

There's a distinction between an organisation/group of people having done a particular thing at some point and this behaviour having been sufficiently new and influential to constitute them scene setting. Especially in a social media landscape so influenced by someone like Musk who clearly isn't a Labour supporter.

These two things have nothing to do with each other.

I think anti Reform tactical voting will be on steroids at the next GE if - and it is an if - Reform still exists. Farage is betting the house on the forthcoming by-election, Reform is utterly screwed if the gamble doesn’t pay off.

Personally I wonder whether he'll still be in place by then, even on the assumption he gets back into Parliament. There's still going to be the investigation and he's evidently realised his teflon days are over. My guess is the right wing voices in the establishment like the Murdoch press will have moved more towards the Tories again by that point.

Yes, the polls just extrapolate the actual number of seats likely from the voter intention surveys, voting history and demographics of locations. Not an exact science but a reasonable guide.

That’s a very good point. The Times group has really got its teeth into Farage and Reform generally now and I can’t see it giving up. It feels as if there’s plenty more muck to rake.

I’m not sure that will be the case after a couple of years under Andy Burnham. Reform will be strengthened and emboldened. The public will be much more focused on ensuring Burnham is removed.

Well, I wonder to what extent it's even a reasonable guide now. Which isn't to blame the pollsters either- a genuine multi party system, FPTP and a substantial tactical voting bloc must be an absolute fucker to call!

I agree. The question then is will the erstwhile Reform voters who saw Farage as a man of the people who listens to them think Burnham or Badenoch listens to them best.

Yes it can and does. You just focussed on Labour comms and argued that for some time. Broaden it out to the areas I mentioned and it’s easy see Labour supporters were happy to use social media to its full extent. But now don’t like it back at them.

No, I think Reform peaked and its all down from now. They've convinced everyone they are likely to already and its not enough. If the public aren't satisfied with Burnham it'll be the Tories again.

With any luck.

If one broadens out 'setting the scene' beyond any actual meaning of setting the scene then sure, yes. However, words have meanings and you don't get to move the goalposts.

It's evident that what you actually meant was Labour were doing the same thing in opposition as various Tories are now. That's true, but it doesn't mean they set the scene. Opposition calling for GEs and social media mushrooming both existed long before Labour last administration. As well as the issue you have with definition, you also ignore the massive, Musk shaped influence on the social media landscape.