AIBU to think Andy Burnham might call a general election soon?

[Mywishistoclimbthe3peaks]

To think Andy Burnham will call a general election before Christmas? Yes it would be a massive roll of the dice but,

Reform - don't have the numbers for a GE and there's all frog faces suspicious money bringing him a lot of heat.

Torys - kemi doesn't have a lot of depth, I feel and she hasn't changed much in the polls. She's good at the dispatch box but let's face it anyone could stand up and insult the other side.

By calling a GE Andy would have his own mandate and break the deadlock of the back benchers.

Not being unreasonable = he needs to call a GE

Your being unreasonable = Robotic Kier and Ratchet Reeves have gone and Andy just needs to get on with it now.

Well, if the Manchester bus timetable slips, there is only one bloke to fix it, right?

He wouldn't. I was answering PPs claim he would lose if he called a GE now, when polls suggest hung with a Reform majority.
He wouldn't choose a coalition over a majority. He would almost certainly choose one over a Reform/Tory majority government. So will no doubt have to time things carefully.

You haven’t rebutted anything. It’s pointless to continue.

When did the COL crisis begin? Who was in government?

If he calls an election now he could capitalise on the initial poll bounce he’s getting. There’s a chance he could win and then he’d actually have a mandate.

😆 🤣

If he’s going to say he gets people are fed up with upheaval, as he did in that speech, he should stick to that and not call a GE.

Right, and he might calculate that Farage, with his current travails, is vulnerable.

The irony being of course - just as Labour won the GE 2024 by lying and simply by virtue they weren’t the Tories, could see Labour out in the same way.

That’s a fair point. But he’s got a real problem if he deviates from the manifesto to the extent that he seems to be proposing. He would need a fresh mandate.

He has the look of a bottler.

I have known a few bottlers in my time, and Burnham definitely has that look about him.

You haven't proved anything.

There is no definition of set the scene that could be applied either to Labour continuing an already established (stupid) custom when they were last in opposition or to their use of social media for political communications. You overshot, and looked desperate in doing so.

You’re missing the change in social media in recent years. It’s become much more powerful in its impact on politics.

It was something Labour used to their advantage and there were no limits on that. The call for limits now are hypocritical and won’t work. So yes you set the scene, or you reap what you sow if the first can’t be taken in.

You’re also limiting your posts to Labour comms only when it’s of course much broader than that and includes supporters online. Who now apparently don’t like the same back at them.

I broadly agree, except are there even polls to suggest Reform getting the highest number of seats? The most recent show them getting the highest number of votes but it's very difficult to factor in how successful tactical voting will be. We know it's going to be very much a thing, but not the extent.

(I don't think Burnham will call a GE soon either, just interested).

If the deviations are popular and lead to good outcomes for more people than don't like them, there will be no problem at all. It will be considered to be a positive change in direction after listening to people.

You're missing what you wrote.

I agree that Labour used the change in social media to their advantage. Which does not mean they set the scene in doing so. That's yet another way of saying something different to your actual claim about setting the scene in order to try and detract from the fact that it was wrong.

And just think, you could've said all the things that are true without pretending that Labour are the ones who established this.

Highest number of seats, but not enough. So Burnham as the PM gets the chance to form a government before Farage would. And he would have all the other parties except Tories and Reform eager for a left of centre coalition government. Anyone frightened of 'the left' should absolutely not be calling for a GE now as they would no doubt dislike a Labour government with Green influence even more.
I don't think he'll do it either. And I'm glad, it would be a bit defeatist so early on.

There is zero chance that Labour will called a GE unless the polls shift in their favour, which so far they haven't as a result of Burnham's coup. They've chipped away at Reform's lead, but atm Reform and Labour are neck and neck and neither have enough support (according to polls) to form an outright majority.

Including supporters online, it was easy to get surely as I mentioned mn and btl in the press as examples.

Neither of those are actually the party or their comms so it was easy to get context.

If you read it that way you’ll probably agree they set the scene which is great.

It would like upend the markets and then what another GE shortly after?

A left coalition with even stronger tax and spend signals would be tough.

Imagine deputy PM Polanski

I'm not advocating for a GE. Just pointing out that the people calling for one wouldn't end up with the Reform or Tory government they hope for. They would end up with something they liked a whole lot less.

I mean admittedly they have been MIA but the Lib Dems have 61 MPs to the Greens 4. That could change but it's more probable they would go with the Lib Dems than the Greens on numbers. If they only needed 4 seats for a majority why bother with a coalition at all?

Burnham making a big speech tomorrow on the COL. Wonder what he will say.

I think a left coalition rn would implode pdq and others could benefit from that. Maybe another reason Burnham won’t call a GE.

It’ll be something about buses or trams.