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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Iran - full evacuation of Tehran?

795 replies

Fitasafiddle1 · 17/06/2025 04:18

Genuinely finding it hard to sleep now having seen the news that Tehran - a population of 10 million are being urgently advised to leave. Is anyone else feeling very concerned (and nervous) watching what is now taking place in the ME? It is being reported that Israel have ‘full ariel control’ of Iran?

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-has-full-control-of-tehrans-airspace-over-100-missile-launchers-destroyed-idf-says/

www.euronews.com/2025/06/17/trump-hints-at-major-israeli-offensive-as-he-urges-all-of-tehran-to-evacuate-immediately

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/liveblog/2025/6/17/live-israel-iran-trade-attacks-trump-orders-residents-of-tehran-to-flee

Blasts rock Tehran, Tel Aviv; Iran warns Israel of ‘devastating’ attacks

Blasts rock Tehran and sirens blare in Tel Aviv as hostilities between Iran and Israel continue for a fifth day.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/liveblog/2025/6/17/live-israel-iran-trade-attacks-trump-orders-residents-of-tehran-to-flee

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:24

Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:21

My guess is that Trump is hoping a deal can be done diplomatically so Iran agree not to advance their nuclear capability and in exchange they get to keep the current regime in place.

If this happens it will be down to the skilled negotiators of UK, France, Germany and Iran who are in talks tomorrow, but Trump will take full credit.

Very interested in your kitten watch. I would ask for a photo but possibly this is the wrong thread for that.

This is exactly what is happening. My question is what happens if Iran won’t agree?

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:28

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:24

This is exactly what is happening. My question is what happens if Iran won’t agree?

Well the talks are happening on Friday as far as I'm aware.

Maybe I'm being naive but I just think surely Iran will agree re the nuclear capabilities as long as their leader can still present it as a "win" because the regime is allowed to stay the same.

Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:30

If Iran doesn't agree @Fitasafiddle1 then it will end much more badly for them (and maybe everyone).

At that point Trump may decide to get involved militarily.

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:33

We will be staring at a huge escalation. For what it is worth, I don’t think they will agree…. I hope I am wrong.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:35

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:33

We will be staring at a huge escalation. For what it is worth, I don’t think they will agree…. I hope I am wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. As you say, a huge escalation would surely follow.

MistressoftheDarkSide · 19/06/2025 13:37

The tone of tantrum in the exchanges between leaders in the media reported back and forth is quite dispiriting.

I am minded of the phrase "theatre of war" and suspect the director is in the Tarantino camp.

I shall start a kitten thread for distraction purposes x

Stirabout · 19/06/2025 13:42

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:23

I believe this is pretty standard practice, it doesn’t indicate Turkish military involvement. I assume it is also to contain the thousands if not millions of potential displaced refugees coming from Iran into turkey in the near future - in the worst case scenario.

I agree.
There are differing reports on whether any refugees have entered Turkey.
Turkey says none
whilst there was an interview with a family who had just arrived from Iran and images of people apparently entering.

Stirabout · 19/06/2025 13:46

Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:28

Well the talks are happening on Friday as far as I'm aware.

Maybe I'm being naive but I just think surely Iran will agree re the nuclear capabilities as long as their leader can still present it as a "win" because the regime is allowed to stay the same.

Isn’t Trump still asking for Iran to surrender and stop all uranium enrichment. Or have I missed a Trump update.
( I don’t do insta, tweets etc. can’t even stand looking at Trump or hearing his voice. 🤢)

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 13:51

Stirabout · 19/06/2025 13:46

Isn’t Trump still asking for Iran to surrender and stop all uranium enrichment. Or have I missed a Trump update.
( I don’t do insta, tweets etc. can’t even stand looking at Trump or hearing his voice. 🤢)

Trump is also, I assume, ordering Iran to cease supporting Hamas and the other militias, to stop supporting terrorism against Israel immediately, so a peace deal can be achieved.

It seems the US have come to the conclusion that a peace deal is not possible until Iran stops funding and sponsoring the attacks on Israel.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 13:54

Stirabout · 19/06/2025 13:46

Isn’t Trump still asking for Iran to surrender and stop all uranium enrichment. Or have I missed a Trump update.
( I don’t do insta, tweets etc. can’t even stand looking at Trump or hearing his voice. 🤢)

I don't do all that stuff either so ... possibly.

This was from Sky News 3 hours ago:

The prime minister has said the UK is in 'discussions' with the US. David Lammy is set to meet with his American counterpart Mark Rubio. He is on Friday scheduled to meet with his French, German and EU counterparts in a summit with Iranian representatives in Switzerland.

UltraHorse · 19/06/2025 14:12

Israel in my opinion shouldn't bomb Iran because they have nuclear power Israel has more than enough nuclear power what gives Netayanna the right to decide another country can't have what Israel has Really hoping our prime minister doesn't involve us in a war that Israel has created Hope so much Starmer acts sensibly on this

Madcatdudette · 19/06/2025 14:34

UltraHorse · 19/06/2025 14:12

Israel in my opinion shouldn't bomb Iran because they have nuclear power Israel has more than enough nuclear power what gives Netayanna the right to decide another country can't have what Israel has Really hoping our prime minister doesn't involve us in a war that Israel has created Hope so much Starmer acts sensibly on this

Have you missed the numerous times Iran has threatened destruction of Israel?
Let them fight between themselves. Doesn’t concern us and we certainly don’t need another Gulf war.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 14:43

UltraHorse · 19/06/2025 14:12

Israel in my opinion shouldn't bomb Iran because they have nuclear power Israel has more than enough nuclear power what gives Netayanna the right to decide another country can't have what Israel has Really hoping our prime minister doesn't involve us in a war that Israel has created Hope so much Starmer acts sensibly on this

I said earlier, Lammy's first big test as foreign sec, comes tomorrow. Will this be one of Starmer's biggest tests in the international arena?

Golden407 · 19/06/2025 15:22

User37482 · 18/06/2025 10:43

He isn’t ISIS, he knew Al-Bagdadi in prison but was never ISIS he avoided them when he arrived in Syria probably had some of them killed (a few people who were supposed to visit mysteriously went missing). He was basically told by al-qaeda that he would be reporting into them and he went “fuck that”. I think he never signed up to the idea of transnational caliphatehoods.

Theres a wealth of information out there if you care to find it.

He was a member of Al Qeada and then a member of Islamic state in Iraq, then joined Al Nusra and finally Hts. Was ISIS a step to far for him?

MistressoftheDarkSide · 19/06/2025 15:29

So Netanyahu is calling on the Iranian people to rise up against their leaders. Wonder how that will go down? Of course the Internet shutdown across Iran might mean he's appealing into the void.

Slight hints of "Leave the World Behind" create chaos and let a country's inhabitants turn on each other?

Golden407 · 19/06/2025 15:36

User37482 · 18/06/2025 10:51

I’m not disagreeing with any of that. But the point still stands, is Israel right to prevent Tehran from getting a nuke. Yes frankly.

Can they instigate regime change? Well no, no-ones prepared to out boots on the ground, no-one is funnelling weapons to any opposition groups etc, there is no nation building stuff going on, no hearts and minds etc. Iran is basically uninvadvable, everyone knows it. This is not Iraq. Libya is full of jihadis and the Iranians aren’t struggling to get people to go to the mosque.

If the Iranians rise up and kick the shit out of the IRCG then I’ll be pleased to see it. The Iranian regime doesn’t have any right to power. If it can’t keep control of it’s population it will lose power. But thats the key isn’t it, they have to control and terrorise their population to keep their position. I don’t understand why so many are so desperate for these dickheads to stay in charge, mind boggling.

I'm not a supporter of the Iranian theocracy. I don't want to come across as a supporter, I'm not! However, Netanyahu has been telling the world that Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons since at least 1992.
We know that Iran has had the capability to produce nuclear weapons for at least twenty years but haven't. It's constitutionally illegal for Iran to develop nuclear weapons under its own legal framework. There have been a number of motions bought before the government to change the constitution in order to allow it. They've all been overwhelmingly rejected on moral grounds.
What are the chances of the Iranian people over throwing this government and choosing one friendly to Israel? None, absolutely none.
The aim of this war is more than likely to destroy Irans infrastructure and economy and turn it into a dysfunctional shell of itself in the mode of Libya or Syria and we know how well that's turned out.

Madcatdudette · 19/06/2025 18:13

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 14:43

I said earlier, Lammy's first big test as foreign sec, comes tomorrow. Will this be one of Starmer's biggest tests in the international arena?

Let’s hope Lammy et al aren’t as pathetic as the Blair government was to follow America into a war no one wants.
Doesn’t matter whose side you take, it really isn’t anything to do with us anymore.

At the end of the day, Israel were not the ones to refuse the deal given to them way back when.
Islamic nut jobs are not really the best people to be running a country.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 18:18

Madcatdudette · 19/06/2025 18:13

Let’s hope Lammy et al aren’t as pathetic as the Blair government was to follow America into a war no one wants.
Doesn’t matter whose side you take, it really isn’t anything to do with us anymore.

At the end of the day, Israel were not the ones to refuse the deal given to them way back when.
Islamic nut jobs are not really the best people to be running a country.

I really can't believe some of the things I've read on here during the last few days. I've just had to hide an awful thread on AIBU. Any other time islamic fundamentalists would be fair game for the way they treat women. Anything to get at Israel. I need to get off here soon and breathe fresh air😀 common and common sense 😉

Fitasafiddle1 · 19/06/2025 18:30

Golden407 · 19/06/2025 15:36

I'm not a supporter of the Iranian theocracy. I don't want to come across as a supporter, I'm not! However, Netanyahu has been telling the world that Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons since at least 1992.
We know that Iran has had the capability to produce nuclear weapons for at least twenty years but haven't. It's constitutionally illegal for Iran to develop nuclear weapons under its own legal framework. There have been a number of motions bought before the government to change the constitution in order to allow it. They've all been overwhelmingly rejected on moral grounds.
What are the chances of the Iranian people over throwing this government and choosing one friendly to Israel? None, absolutely none.
The aim of this war is more than likely to destroy Irans infrastructure and economy and turn it into a dysfunctional shell of itself in the mode of Libya or Syria and we know how well that's turned out.

I don’t think it serves anyone to turn a state into a dysfunctional shell, however Iran has been sponsoring militia to harm Israel - that is not disputed. It’s less to do with nuclear arms in my view, and more to do with cutting the main sources paying to injure and murder innocent civilians in Israel.

It seems Iran is preventing peace, to serve its own agenda, of course at some point this is going to have to be addressed. There was no need for the 7tn of October to happen at all.

State sponsored terrorism anywhere in the world is always going to end badly. It could be argued Iran have been sheltered up to now from the consequences.

Things can not remain the same, with such terrible loss of life on both sides. A solution must be found unless you would prefer decades of this to carry on? The people of Gaza didn’t ask to be stuck in the middle of this proxy war, and everything must be done to stop this now. It’s obscene to see such suffering.

OP posts:
SarfLondonLad · 19/06/2025 18:42

The Shah don't seem so bad now, does he.

tramtracks · 19/06/2025 23:28

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 18:18

I really can't believe some of the things I've read on here during the last few days. I've just had to hide an awful thread on AIBU. Any other time islamic fundamentalists would be fair game for the way they treat women. Anything to get at Israel. I need to get off here soon and breathe fresh air😀 common and common sense 😉

Edited

Don’t go @Dangermoo

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 23:46

tramtracks · 19/06/2025 23:28

Don’t go @Dangermoo

I'm still here x

sualipa · 20/06/2025 08:05

As it turns out and not for the first time Trump was spouting nonsense. Returning to the original point, it’s unclear what exactly he hoped to achieve with the chaos he stirred up. Then again, he probably doesn’t know either.

EasternStandard · 20/06/2025 08:08

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 18:18

I really can't believe some of the things I've read on here during the last few days. I've just had to hide an awful thread on AIBU. Any other time islamic fundamentalists would be fair game for the way they treat women. Anything to get at Israel. I need to get off here soon and breathe fresh air😀 common and common sense 😉

Edited

It’s horrendous. Mnhq seem to be gone and the site is a free for all re the thread.

Depressing I know but same as pp keep posting just so there’s a small bit of difference.

AnnaBalfour · 20/06/2025 09:10

American intel reported Iran have not been actively pursuing nuclear weapon capability and would be at least 3 years away from being able to do so. Of course Trump decided to ignore the intel and join Netanyahu on this suddenly very urgent mission.

if you know, you know and can cut through all the BS