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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

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HoldingTight · 04/11/2020 14:54

Red I don't think a tie is possible with the states that are left.

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 14:55

@HoldingTight

Red I don't think a tie is possible with the states that are left.
That would be a relief.
CoffeeandCroissant · 04/11/2020 14:56

"If Biden’s current lead holds in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada then he’s won the presidency with 271 electoral votes. That’s irrespective of what happens in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina."
Lewis Goodall.
mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323994430798520321

cantdothisnow1 · 04/11/2020 14:58

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]"If Biden’s current lead holds in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada then he’s won the presidency with 271 electoral votes. That’s irrespective of what happens in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina."
Lewis Goodall.
mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323994430798520321[/quote]
That's right, we may not need to wait as long as the end of the Pennsylvania vote.

SabrinaThwaite · 04/11/2020 15:01

I think the 1 EV for Biden from Nebraska might prevent the 269/269 split?

HoldingTight · 04/11/2020 15:07

I'm not sure Biden can swing Pennsylvania - he needs 69% of the remaining votes.

I think (hope) MI and WI will be Biden - skin of teeth and seat of pants. But my maths makes that 267. My maths must be wrong coz everyone is saying Biden has it if he gets NV, AZ, WI & MI. Hopefully I'm missing something.

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:09

Matt Viser @mviser
Biden campaign thinking:

- They believe they’ve won Wisc, expect it to be called this morning
- Mich vote by mail lead is insurmountable and will be called midday
- Philly vote by mail will come in tonight or tomorrow
- GA result midday or early afternoon
- NV called tomorrow

Biden campaign official this morning, believing results they’ll be declared the winner of Wisconsin and Michigan today — and results coming in PA, GA, NV soon — has some confidence: "This is moving to a conclusion -- and moving to a conclusion in our favor.”

DH thinks that Georgia will be exceptionally close tipping to Biden in the end.

HoldMyLobster · 04/11/2020 15:09

@HoldingTight

I'm not sure Biden can swing Pennsylvania - he needs 69% of the remaining votes.

I think (hope) MI and WI will be Biden - skin of teeth and seat of pants. But my maths makes that 267. My maths must be wrong coz everyone is saying Biden has it if he gets NV, AZ, WI & MI. Hopefully I'm missing something.

Have you included 3 votes from Maine?
CoffeeandCroissant · 04/11/2020 15:10

Missing the Maine and Nebraska split votes?
www.270towin.com/maps/wZjwr

HoldingTight · 04/11/2020 15:17

Thank you both! Yes. Phew 🥵

anon444877 · 04/11/2020 15:19

I reckon Georgia will go dem too, as Atlanta being counted. Will be historic if it does, can't wait. Tonight will be exciting!

anon444877 · 04/11/2020 15:22

It'll be tough to win PA, Georgia has also been tipped to swing blue at least the last two elections I recall, let's hope they make it this time.

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:23

@HoldingTight

I'm not sure Biden can swing Pennsylvania - he needs 69% of the remaining votes.

I think (hope) MI and WI will be Biden - skin of teeth and seat of pants. But my maths makes that 267. My maths must be wrong coz everyone is saying Biden has it if he gets NV, AZ, WI & MI. Hopefully I'm missing something.

DH is looking at the data on this and is estimating that between 60% to 70% of remaining votes in some of these key states IS viable on the basis of where they are. I'm not 100% sure if this is also true for Pennsylvania, but thats the ballpark split he was looking at in at least some States yet to be called.
RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:27

Via CNN

Here's why Trump's current sizable lead in Pennsylvania is not insurmountable for Biden

President Trump is currently ahead in Pennsylvania by about 618,000 votes, but that lead is not insurmountable for Joe Biden because of “what’s outstanding, based on where it’s outstanding, and based on the method in which that vote was cast outstanding,” CNN’s Phil Mattingly explains.

About 1 million — and possibly more — absentee votes are yet to be counted.

That matters because Democrats expect big turnout in places like Philadelphia, counties around Philadelphia and Alleghany County, which is home to Pittsburgh. It’s not happened yet but that’s largely because of the votes that haven’t been counted yet.

"“That is a ton of vote outstanding in Democratic stronghold counties that is absentee,” Mattingly says, adding that typically, a lead of 618,000 votes is a lot to make up with 1 million outstanding votes. But “not when absentee has been going 70%, 75% Biden's way over what we've seen in Wisconsin, what we've seen in Michigan.”

Remember: There was still a big voter turnout for President Trump in western Pennsylvania counties. So the outstanding vote doesn't mean that Biden is going to catch up. It just means that there is an opportunity for the Biden campaign in the state.

(their bold).

So its possible but might not be quite enough.

ThierryEnnui · 04/11/2020 15:29

Biden’s campaign manager has just said they expect to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

They are considering Georgia a toss up and North Carolina likely to go to Trump.

I would agree with them. If I were to put money on it I would put GA as going to Biden, with Trump only winning NC of the remaining states to be called.

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:32

They are saying they will probably know this afternoon (US time) / by midday (UK time) too.

And then we find out the Trump end game...

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:33

And of course, even if he does leave the WH he is unlikely to be leaving Twitter...

Songsofexperience · 04/11/2020 15:37

And of course, even if he does leave the WH he is unlikely to be leaving Twitter...

The Trump Show is definitely not over- but outside of the WH he would be back to the entertainment figure he was before the presidency, albeit a very influential one.

PullTheBricksDown · 04/11/2020 15:42

Doesn't Biden get to 270 though with Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, all of which he currently leads in? Then Pennsylvania doesn't matter.

cantdothisnow1 · 04/11/2020 15:44

And in the meantime Trump is tweeting that he can't understand how he is losing the lead in these states.

He doesn't understand the democratic process!

He's continuing to imply that the swing is fraudulent as it can't possibly be happening.

PullTheBricksDown · 04/11/2020 15:44

Adding on: that's assuming Biden has Arizona too

cantdothisnow1 · 04/11/2020 15:45

@PullTheBricksDown

Doesn't Biden get to 270 though with Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, all of which he currently leads in? Then Pennsylvania doesn't matter.
Yes, hopefully it won't come down to Pennsylvania,

I think the reason these results are going to be slow coming is that these states KNOW there will be a recount if Biden wins. They will want to be absolutely sure there is no discrepancy.

RedToothBrush · 04/11/2020 15:53

Dh's numbers seem to tally with whats being said by the Biden camp. He has worked out the % of postal votes needed and its pretty favourable for Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. Pennsylviania doesn't look awful. Georgia needs a higher % but is doable but definitely into toss up land. He is pretty damn happy with what he's seen about where the votes are and how that works for Biden.

He is expecting automatic recounts to come into play though. So it could get hairy yet.

Msloverlover · 04/11/2020 15:55

I think I read on here that up until 2016, Trump always mail in voted. He is totally aware how ridiculous his claims are isn’t he? He’s a desperate man. I will look forward to Republicans dropping him like a hot poo if Biden can swing this. Already a few more seem to be distancing themselves since his temper tantrum address.

baroqueandblue · 04/11/2020 15:58

Admittedly I'm high on painkillers, but just felt an urge to tell you how much you're loved on MN, RTB! By me obvs, but I'm certain by many others too. And your DH is indirectly keeping lots of us sane today too! Just so warming to have your time and spirit through your posts, thank you so much for being here Flowers