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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

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SchadenfreudePersonified · 04/11/2020 10:41

This. I wonder how many abortions the president has financed personally?

I wondered exactly the same Inglourious.

Financed, or facilitated, or necessitated . . .

ForTheLoveOfFaff · 04/11/2020 10:43

The beeb are reporting that Biden has won Hawaii (four electoral college votes), so Biden = 224, Trump = 213

emptydreamer · 04/11/2020 10:45

@AgeLikeWine
Don't forget that the betting markets work not with pure probabilities, but with odds adjusted by the total current bet behind the outcome. If the last 12 hours or so of Trump leading had increased the total bet against him, the bookies will have to rebalance the odds ratio to attract money against Biden.

SchadenfreudePersonified · 04/11/2020 10:45

@Jaichangecentfoisdenom

How US elections work, explanation from an English person for other English people.
Did Boris Johnson write these rules?
Completmentfille · 04/11/2020 10:46

When will Wisconsin declare, does anyone know?

SchadenfreudePersonified · 04/11/2020 10:46

Whoever wins it is going to be dreadful!

My heart aches for ordinary people in the US who just want to have a job, feed their families and not be involved in violence.

Mrsmorton · 04/11/2020 10:47

I feel sick watching it. Work computer has crashed with me refreshing the results!

vivariumvivariumsvivaria · 04/11/2020 10:48

I am completely confused and absolutely hooked.

JamieLeeCurtains · 04/11/2020 10:54

Ooh, Larry Sanders. Lives in England, Green Party, Bernie's brother. On BBC1.

yvanka · 04/11/2020 10:54

It looks very unlikely that Biden can win - he has 238 and is only leading in Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). So he can't get to 270, can he? It's not even really close in the others yet to declare.

KungFuWeetabix · 04/11/2020 10:54

@vivariumvivariumsvivaria

I am completely confused and absolutely hooked.
Same. Been lurking here since last night, stayed up until gone 2am then fell asleep on the sofa. Done the school run (twice as DD forgot her lunch!) and now in bed intended to sleep but can't stay away. It's so close in a few states (watching the Google home page on it for numbers) and I really don't know what to think.

I put £50 on trump to win so I can at least console myself with wine and pizza if he wins. But I really hope I lose that bet.

ChickOnAStick · 04/11/2020 10:55

@yvanka

It looks very unlikely that Biden can win - he has 238 and is only leading in Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). So he can't get to 270, can he? It's not even really close in the others yet to declare.
They are expecting Biden to win Michigan too - which I think would tip him over.... 270 on the nose. God, it's nuts.
anon444877 · 04/11/2020 10:55

Biden can win - Georgia has Atlanta votes left to count, PA has Philly voted left to count, Michigan has Detroit left and Wisconsin has Milwaukee. Biden could pull a very convincing win out of this still.

Jaichangecentfoisdenom · 04/11/2020 10:56

Good grief, @lionheart. That is one of the most shocking things of all.

maggiethecat · 04/11/2020 10:56

I went to bed and woke at about 2 am and there were lots of MNetters shortly thereafter who had all but given up on Biden although I couldn't make sense of it given that we always knew that early counting would favour Trumpie.

But I now am beginning to wonder if those posted ballots will translate into wins for Biden? Such is the twilight zone of our existence right now Confused

Cam77 · 04/11/2020 10:56

Biden will win this with about 280 and 4-5% popular vote margin. Basically, there are millions of postal votes left to count that will put him over the line in enough of the swing states he needs. We won’t have an official winner for about a week though and Trump and the Republicans are going to go berserk in the meantime trying to throw out hundreds of thousands if not millions of perfectly completely legitimate postal votes.

Likeliest outcome is over the next few days Trump reduces the US reputation for free and fair elections to a level with Russia.....and then loses anyway. It’s gonna be ugly and it’s already started with Trump declaring himself the winner while the rest of the world and networks is counting votes. Trump is an absolute disgrace to democracy.

KungFuWeetabix · 04/11/2020 10:57

@yvanka

It looks very unlikely that Biden can win - he has 238 and is only leading in Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). So he can't get to 270, can he? It's not even really close in the others yet to declare.
Are we still hoping that PA swings Biden's way once all the postal ones are counted? They are only at 67%.
anon444877 · 04/11/2020 10:57

I fancy Biden to win Michigan - they were the last to go trump last time by a tiny margin.

Cam77 · 04/11/2020 10:57

@maggiethecat
But I now am beginning to wonder if those posted ballots will translate into wins for Biden?
The answer is: yes

KungFuWeetabix · 04/11/2020 10:59

Trump currently ahead by 200,000 according to Google but only 87% counted so it's possible.

anon444877 · 04/11/2020 10:59

Well my completely representative Facebook democrat friends all postal voted. A lot of the democrat campaign ads featured people posting their votes.

Cam77 · 04/11/2020 10:59

@yvanka
The Election Day voters and postal voters are totally different. If you look at the betting markets Biden is now favourite having been as far out as 5/1 during the night. The election watcher number crunchers know what’s going on ... Biden will win. But not before we watch a temper tantrum for the ages.

maggiethecat · 04/11/2020 11:00

Cam77 - I do hope you are right!😬

KungFuWeetabix · 04/11/2020 11:00

Sorry that's re Michegan