Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

[MagicFox]

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Twitter says they are all having dinner!!!!!

😁😬

Am I the only one who is filled with dread at the idea of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, without or maybe even more so with Trump. I get a very bad feeling about such meeting. If it goes ahead and Trump attends, a European representative would only be fair.

The effect Putin has on Trump is astonishing.

Yes I think it's a bad idea.
Putin may try and kill zelensky

If he lives I don't think zelensky could keep it together in front of Putin and who can blame him but it won't end well.

But i don't think Putin does want peace trump is trying to box him in and I don't think Putin cares much
It's probably better for him the war rumbles on.

In which case what is plan b...i suspect as discreetly as possible to flood Ukraine with higher grade weapons and ramp up support but that dangerously puts the USA in more direct contact with Putin.

I don't think Zelensky would agree to a meeting unless he has someone there to support him. Meeting alone with Putin and Trump would be like walking into a lion's den.

Ha Just like the cast iron guarantees in 1994?

Trump will never put US boots in Ukraine & the Europeans wont either, if they meant it, they'd allow Ukraine into NATO, so Putin will play the game, allow some territory swaps, get the Donbas and come back with a rebuil military for all of Ukraine, whilst Trump is still in power.

I'm no Boris fan but he is dead right "its a vomit inducing plan...."

Its quite incredible that Western leaders have to remind America that Russia is their enemy and Europe their allies.

I also think the suggestion will be that the meeting takes place in Moscow. Which Zelenskyy, rightly, will object to. And Trump and Putin will then say that Zelenskyy is obstructing peace.

And of course there's an arrest warrant out on Putin that covers Europe.
So it's fraught with trickiness.

I personally don’t think a bilateral will take place because it would require Putin acknowledging that Zelenskyy is a peer, and the leader of an independent nation which is one of Russia’s fundamental issues.

My teo eurocents worth...

Putin want's the whole of Ukraine...he hasn't got it yet, his army is struggling..he'll happily take a ceasefire, even a multiple year one, to rebuild his forces...then as sure as the sun rises he will have another go.

There's speculation around that POTUS is being leant on heavily by those at home who are either locked out of trading on the region by sanctions or want to be able to gain access to the minerals etc in eastern Ukraine..POTUS might profit biggly if such companies can get back to work.

So POTUS and Putin are probably desparate for a ceasefire/truce but for utterly different reasons.

Europe is still jaw jawing away with "coalition of the willing" but there's little to show for it..I'm not sure all the promises of troops on ground as peacekeepers and air patrols will result on much...

Z is in a tough spot....I suspect he might have to ask the country whether they are willing to carry on fighting, and hope for financial and other support.

He might get a bit of that from europe but no idea what POTUS will do if the mineral extraction and other ideas are stymied.

I get the feeling that we are almost back to the position we were in before Trump came in and caused the situation to worsen.

I don't trust him not to go back on any agreements made.

It's a typical Trump move- cause/invent a bad situation, make a drama about fixing it, demand recognition for fixing it.

https://news.sky.com/story/putin-wasnt-at-the-white-house-but-his-influence-was-key-moments-which-reveal-his-hold-over-trump-13414421

Putin wasn't at the White House, but his influence was - the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Donald Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later. It believes that's the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.

Cast iron?

Ha Just like the cast iron guarantees in 1994?

Yes jasflowers.

Perhaps they just weren't clear enough.

https://docs.un.org/cd/1285

This is the problem the European's almost all have with providing security guarantees...you can replace the word "Germany: in title with the name of pretty much every western/central european nation..

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-too-stretched-provide-troops-ukraine-foreign-minister-johann-wadephul/

https://bsky.app/profile/lordrickettsp.bsky.social/post/3lwqc7uinis2o

I set out some thoughts last night on BBCR4 on the Ukraine day on the White House. In short it was a good day for European diplomacy. First, a well-schooled Zelensky handled his Ordeal by Oval Office deftly, with plenty of thanks and flattery and earning warm if vague words of support from Trump 1/7

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia redeploys troops for new push (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-redeploys-troops-for-new-push-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-ukraines-army-chief-says/) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine's army chief says.
"The goal is to break through our defenses and advance deep into (our) territory. Their goal, of course, is (occupying) the entire region,"
Syrskyi said.

⚡️ Zelensky, Putin may meet within 2 weeks (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-putin-may-meet-within-2-weeks-german-chancellor-says/), German chancellor says.

⚡️Trump calls Putin (kyivindependent.com/trump-calls-putin-following-talks-with-zelensky-european-leaders/) following talks with Zelensky, European leaders.

⚡️Trump announces plan to broker Putin-Zelensky meeting (kyivindependent.com/trump-calls-putin-following-talks-with-zelensky-european-leaders/) after Washington talks.

⚡️Zelensky says he will discuss territory with Putin as Ukraine signals readiness for unconditional peace talks (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-he-will-discuss-territory-with-putin-as-ukraine-signals-readiness-for-unconditional-peace-talks-with-russia/) with Russia.

⚡️ Foreign troop deployment to Ukraine not discussed (kyivindependent.com/nato-chief-says-washington-talks-did-not-raise-foreign-troop-deployment-to-ukraine/) during Washington talks, NATO chief says.
"That will be part of the discussions, which will now start. We will try to bring them to the next stage of understanding over the coming days and weeks, of course," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.

⚡️European leaders remind Trump that true peace requires backing Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/european-leaders-stress-that-security-guarantees-for-ukraine-are-about-whole-security-of-the-european-continent/).
While publicly praising Trump for his efforts to end the war, the European leaders stressed that true peace must be built on a foundation of supporting Kyiv.

⚡️Zelensky meets (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-us-envoy-kellogg-ahead-of-trump-summit/) US Envoy Kellogg ahead of Trump summit.
According to CNN, European officials privately voiced concern about his absence in Alaska, calling him the American figure with the deepest understanding of what terms Ukraine might consider in a deal.

⚡️'We'll give them very good protection, very good security,' — Trump says (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-at-white-house-for-talks-with-trump/) in White House meeting with Zelensky.

⚡️Trump says (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-at-white-house-for-talks-with-trump/) he doesn't think a ceasefire in Ukraine is necessary.
"If you look at the six deals that I settled this year, they were all at war. I didn't do any ceasefires... I like the concept of a ceasefire for one reason, because you'd stop killing people immediately. But strategically, you can also understand why one country or the other wouldn't want it," U.S. President Trump said.

⚡️Ukraine proposes $100 billion US weapons deal (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-proposes-100-billion-us-weapons-deal-backed-by-european-allies-ft-reports/) backed by European allies, FT reports.
By tying its defense needs to a major boost for U.S. industry, Ukraine hopes to turn its request into an investment opportunity that appeals directly to American interests.
The proposal also includes a separate $50 billion agreement for producing drones with Ukrainian companies, according to the document seen by the Financial Times (FT).

⚡️ Hungary emerges as potential venue (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-putin-talks-could-take-place-in-hungary-reuters-reports/) for Zelensky-Putin meeting, Reuters reports.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has blocked or delayed military aid to Ukraine, maintained ties with Putin, and echoed Kremlin narratives.

⚡️ Russia occupied less than 1% of Ukraine's territory (kyivindependent.com/russia-occupied-less-than-1-of-ukraines-territory-since-november-2022-monitoring-group-says/) since November 2022, monitoring group says.
Since November 2022, Russian forces have only captured 5,842 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, accounting for about 0.97% of the country's landmass, according to DeepState.

⚡️Pipeline attack stops Russian oil flow (kyivindependent.com/druzhba-pipeline/) to Hungary, Slovakia.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha neither confirmed nor denied the account of the latest attack but wrote on X that Hungary "can now send complaints and threats" to Moscow, not Kyiv.

⚡️ Ukrainian drones hit oil refinery (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-hit-oil-refinery-in-russias-volgograd-oblast-governor-says/) in Russia's Volgograd Oblast, governor says.
The refinery, Russian oil company Lukoil's second-largest, is a major producer of petroleum products in Russia's Southern Federal District.
The refinery, Russian oil company Lukoil's second-largest, is a major producer of petroleum products in Russia's Southern Federal District.

⚡️Russian gasoline prices hit (kyivindependent.com/russian-gasoline-prices-hit-record-highs-after-drone-strikes-shut-refineries/) record highs after drone strikes shut refineries.
Russia, one of the world's largest energy producers, relies heavily on oil exports to fund its full-scale war against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian energy facilities that both supply fuel to its military and generate revenue for the Kremlin.

Muscle beaches, drag racing, and drones falling into the sea. Summer in Odesa hasn’t stopped (kyivindependent.com/muscle-beaches-drag-racing-and-drones-falling-into-the-sea-summer-in-odesa-hasnt-stopped/)
Though international tourism to Odesa has all but vanished, Ukrainians with limited travel options increasingly seek out the Black Sea to relax.
The city has adapted, too. Before beaches open to tourists, divers explore their depths to clear them of mines. A recent viral video showed beachgoers cheering and clapping as a Russian drone plunged into the sea after air defense shot it down. Patrols on boats and quadbikes are now on the lookout not just for swimmers in trouble, but also for drone wreckage that has washed ashore.

⚡️Explosions reported in Kremenchuk amid Russian drone, missile attack (kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-kremenchuk-amid-russian-drone-missile-attack-on-ukraine/) on Ukraine.

⚡️ Update: 3 killed, 30 injured (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-putin-undermines-diplomatic-efforts-after-russian-strike-on-zaporizhzhia-kills-3-injures-23/) in Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — AUG 19, 2025
■ Most engagements of Aug so far; casualties below the 7-day average
■ Drone losses well above average; strong artillery losses
■ Most aerial attacks of Aug so far, but defenses held

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Putin agreed to meet with President Zelenskyy within two weeks — Merz

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead task force on security guarantees for Ukraine — The Wall Street Journal
The US President and European leaders have agreed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will head a task force of national security advisers and NATO representatives to develop security guarantees for Ukraine.
According to the publication, the package of guarantees will include four key elements: military presence, air defense systems, arms supplies, and oversight of the cessation of hostilities.
At the same time, the WSJ notes, the US may provide indirect military support to European peacekeepers without deploying its own troops.

Trump has begun preparations for a trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin, the US president wrote on Truth Social.
He confirmed that he called Putin at the end of the meeting. According to Trump, the White House talks also covered security guarantees for Ukraine and what guarantees “will be provided by various European countries under the coordination of the United States.”

President Zelenskyy made it clear at a briefing after the White House talks that he is prepared to discuss the “territorial issue” with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin.
The president noted that he “argued a little” over the percentage of occupied territories shown on a map presented by the Americans during the meeting. At the same time, he emphasized that he had no disagreements with President Trump, describing their exchange as a “good, warm, and substantive conversation.”

Ukraine cannot be forced to make territorial concessions. Russia’s demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donetsk region is comparable to asking the United States to give up Florida. This is unacceptable for a sovereign state, said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a briefing in Washington.

Putin will kill demonstratively to pressure and humiliate diplomatic efforts — Zelenskyy on strikes against Ukraine

The Guardsmen stopped enemy assault attempts in the Kupiansk direction.

How Ukraine Upgraded US Bradleys to Survive Russia’s Drone Warfare
Ukrainian defense engineers have developed a specialized protection system to increase the survivability of American-supplied M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA infantry fighting vehicles against drones and other modern threats.
The solution, known as Tower 1, has been installed on several vehicles and continues to be refined based on battlefield experience.
Find out more: united24media.com/latest-news/how-ukraine-upgraded-us-bradleys-to-survive-russias-drone-warfare-10847

In the Pokrovsk sector, a Russian soldier shot a civilian — Prosecutor General's Office
A video published on a Telegram channel shows a Russian serviceman with a white armband opening aimed fire on a civilian in the Rodynske area.
He then approached the victim, who was lying on the road, and, after examining her, fled the scene.

The Ukrainian national team is among the top three at the World Games.
Our non-Olympic athletes won 44 medals in Chengdu — 16 gold, 14 silver, and 14 bronze — placing third after Germany (45 medals) and China (64 medals).
Ukrainians reached the podium in 11 sports, including underwater sports, powerlifting, sambo, and others.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Putin has agreed to a meeting with Zelensky, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, Fox News reported.
According to him, Washington is now working to organize such a meeting.

Ukrainian Army chief Syrsky said, while Russian troops suffered defeat in the Sumy sector, they managed to advance 10-12 kilometers toward several Ukrainian settlements (www.kyivpost.com/post/58419) near Dobropillia in the Donetsk region.

We are working on a lasting peace that will endure not for 2 years, but much longer — Trump

Ukraine has pledged to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the United States as part of US security guarantees, the Financial Times reports.
At the same time, Washington will sign a $50 billion deal on drone production with Ukrainian companies.

Rachel Scott — the only journalist who asked Putin about killing Ukrainians.
At the August 17 press conference, ABC News’ Rachel Scott stood out as the only journalist to directly confront Vladimir Putin.
Her question cut through the talk of sanctions and strategy:
“Mr. Putin, will you commit to not killing any more civilians?”
Putin offered no answer.
Scott, known for her fearless reporting — including a 2021 challenge to Putin on political repression — again showed what real journalism looks like.

Zelensky swapped his camouflage for a black suit jacket ahead of his meeting with Trump. Last time, the Ukrainian president was criticized for not wearing a suit at the White House.
In a video from Washington, posted on Zelensky’s X account, the Ukrainian president is seen wearing a black jacket, black shirt, and black trousers.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Men under 22 will be allowed to travel abroad. The government will finalize the regulation by the end of the week.
This was announced by Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Suspilne reports.
“It will be a Cabinet resolution. This decision does not require legislative changes, so it will be made at the Cabinet level. I believe we will finalize it this week,” she said.

⚡️ Ukraine rejects territorial concessions to Russia and troop withdrawal from Donbas, FT reports, citing a confidential document Ukraine handed to the U.S.
Ukraine’s key demands include:
🔴Rejection of any deal that would involve recognizing territorial concessions.
🔴Rejection of Putin’s proposal to freeze the frontline in exchange for Ukraine handing over full control of Donetsk and Luhansk — seen as a chance for Russia to establish a bridgehead for advancing toward the city of Dnipro.
🔴A ceasefire must be the first step toward a comprehensive peace agreement.
🔴Full compensation for damages caused by Russia’s aggression, potentially funded through $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
🔴Any sanctions relief should only be granted if Russia abides by the future peace agreement and “plays fair.”

⚡️President Zelensky held a briefing. Key points:
🔴“I was able to show our American colleagues on the map who really controls what on the battlefield.”
🔴Security guarantees were discussed: “For us, it is important that this is not just a pause in the fighting, but real peace.”
🔴“The U.S. is sending clear signals that they will be among the countries helping to coordinate, and they will also be participants in providing security guarantees for Ukraine.”
🔴Trump agreed to take part in preparing an all-for-all exchange — not only of soldiers, but also journalists, political prisoners, and others.
🔴The U.S. is proposing to hold a trilateral meeting with Putin as soon as possible.
🔴Trump has contacted “the Russian side.” Russia suggested first holding a bilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia, and then moving to a trilateral one.
🔴“We have no details yet about the bilateral meeting.” All sides must show willingness to end the war. If that doesn’t happen, Ukraine will ask the U.S. to act accordingly.
🔴Ukraine continues to insist on a meeting without any preconditions.
🔴“The issue of territories we will leave between me and Putin.”
🔴Ukraine has prepared a package of proposals for the purchase of U.S. weapons worth $90 billion — this will be part of the security guarantees. The security guarantees are expected to be formalized on paper within 7–10 days.

Russia launched a massive attack on the Poltava region, causing localized power outages.
Strikes and falling debris were recorded in the Kremenchuk and Lubny districts, with no casualties reported. In Kremenchuk, dozens of explosions were heard, targeting energy and transport infrastructure.
Administrative buildings of local energy companies were damaged. In the Lubny district, 1,471 households and 119 business subscribers were left without electricity. Emergency services and energy workers are addressing the aftermath.

The strike on a residential building in Kharkiv [yesterday] was deliberate — five enemy “Shahed” drones approached it from different directions.
Serhii Bolvinov, head of the Investigative Department of the Kharkiv police, said that during the attack an entire family was killed — a mother, father, an 18-month-old girl, and a 16-year-old boy. There is also information that the grandmother had come to visit them the day before. Her body was found under the rubble as well, with identification now being carried out through DNA.

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Zelenskyy presented Trump with a golf club — the U.S. president’s favorite sport.

The White House has released the following photo with the caption “In Search of Peace.”

feeling a little more optimistic today, and so proud of European leaders for stepping up and showing their support. I don’t underestimate the impact that they had on Trump. Seriously hope that they can be part of the next round of negotiations.

feeling a little more optimistic today, and so proud of European leaders for stepping up and showing their support. I don’t underestimate the impact that they had on Trump. Seriously hope that they can be part of the next round of negotiations.

You’re preaching to the converted jasflowers, I have no faith in security guarantees either. After all Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons on the back of just such a treaty, and look where we are now. Which is why I am suggesting that this time it would have to actually mean something. Putin obviously doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO because it’s a deterrent to his colonial ambitions, and he would undoubtedly test the water on any ‘NATO lite’ Article 5 type agreement so the response would have to be swift and decisive. The question is has Europe got Ukraine’s back - I’m not so sure, and even less sure about Trumps America.

And surprise, surprise Trump is already ruling out American ‘boots on the ground’ to secure peace.

On Ukraine the exact opposite for me..... Europe would struggle to put 100k troops into Ukraine, so all depends on US air and naval power if they wont provide troops.

But yes i was good to see European leaders back Zelenskyy

Trump was pretty clear yesterday that he expects Europe to provide the troops for any peacekeeping mission.

As for what the security guarantees could include, the detail is still scant. Trump commented at a post-talks press conference that Europe would “take a lot of the burden” for these, but said the U.S. would help and would make it “very secure.”

So the US contribution would be supplemental air assets and most critically, military intelligence monitoring Russian force dispositions and intentions.

A Russian spokesperson said yesterday that any NATO troops in Ukraine would be unacceptable to them, so the issue could completely derail negotiations. Might non-NATO troops be used instead? It's hard to see who would supply them in sufficient numbers to be effective.

There's a lot of talk about how devastating loss of Ukrainian fortifications in the Donbas would be for their defense. While it certainly wouldn't be a good thing, it's hardly a game changer. If Russia wanted to invade again in a few years, they'd come through Belarus or directly over the Russian Ukrainian border where there are lots of unfortified routes, as they did in 2022.

How many troops a peacekeeping force would need depends on the level of deterrence you want to achieve. A tripwire force that's intended to merely slow the Russians down while waiting for reinforcements might be as small as 30-40k troops. A defense in depth would be at least 100k, which Europe simply doesn't have thanks to the atrophy of its military capabilities since the end of the cold war. So a tripwire force might be all that is possible.

Don't downplay the role the Ukrainians in their own defense. With a few years to rearm and reconstitute, they'll be much more capable than any force Europe could put in Ukraine.