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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
360
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/10/2025 10:49

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Putin is successfully convincing Trump to stall while dismissing Kyiv’s offer to exchange long-range missiles for its world-leading drone technology, Ex-NATO official tells Kyiv Post. (www.kyivpost.com/post/62447)

rom Front Line to Recovery: Since 2014, Ukraine’s largest trauma hospital in Dnipro has treated over 50,000 soldiers and civilians. Here, doctors battle severe injuries, saving lives and limbs every day.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/10/2025 10:52

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸🇰🇵 Trump plans to meet with Kim Jong Un during his trip to Asia next month, CNN reports, citing sources.
According to the network’s interlocutors, there are currently no active contacts between Washington and Pyongyang, and planning for the meeting has not yet begun. However, Trump has personally expressed interest in such an opportunity. They added that, “given Trump’s impulsive style,” a meeting with the North Korean leader could be arranged on short notice.
Kim Jong Un has also declared his readiness for dialogue, saying he “still has good memories of President Trump” and sees no reason not to sit at the negotiating table if the U.S. “abandons its obsession with denuclearization.”
▪️The two leaders previously met in Singapore, Vietnam, and the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea in 2019.

A 29-year-old Ukrainian Armed Forces veteran and a 34-year-old National Guard serviceman, who had been held captive in the temporarily occupied part of Luhansk region, have been returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Two parallel operations were conducted to extract the soldiers from different locations without disclosing the details of the plan to them. Both are now safe and on territory controlled by Ukraine.

🇺🇸 White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt sharply responded to a question about the location of President Trump’s upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin.
A HuffPost journalist asked her why the meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders was scheduled to take place in Budapest and who made that decision. Leavitt replied curtly: “Your mom.”
When the journalist followed up, asking if she truly considered that response appropriate, Leavitt said: “It’s funny you actually think of yourself as a journalist. You’re a far-left hack no one takes seriously.”
HuffPost later clarified that the question referred to the historical context — since the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukraine’s security in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, was signed there. The outlet noted that choosing Budapest as the site for a Trump-Putin summit “seems symbolic and provocative to many.” [professional of her eh?]

The upcoming Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest is seen as a “political nightmare” within the European Union, El País reports, citing diplomatic sources.
According to the newspaper’s interlocutors in diplomatic circles, officials in Brussels stress that holding a summit in the Hungarian capital undermines the EU’s unity and its role in promoting peace in Ukraine.
“The venue was chosen very deliberately — it could play to Russia’s advantage by deepening divisions within the EU over the Kremlin. It may also greatly benefit Orbán, who faces elections in his country next year,” one European diplomat told the paper.
The European Commission officially stated that it welcomes any initiative that brings a “just and lasting peace for Ukraine,” even if it “does not always occur in the desired format.” However, most diplomats privately express concern, fearing that a Trump–Putin meeting without Kyiv or Brussels could legitimize the Russian leader and weaken Europe’s position.

Drones attacked several regions across Russia, hitting a gas processing plant and an oil refinery
In Orenburg, drones targeted a Gazprom gas processing plant, the regional governor confirmed. According to him, part of the facility’s infrastructure was damaged, and one of the workshops caught fire.
Telegram channels citing eyewitnesses report that the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the Samara region was also struck.

This week, Russia launched more than 3,270 attack drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
He added that Russian forces also used 1,370 guided aerial bombs and nearly 50 missiles of various types against Ukraine.

DuncinToffee · 19/10/2025 18:57

Archived link for article above

https://archive.ph/1Cnpm

DdraigGoch · 19/10/2025 23:53

Leavitt replied curtly: “Your mom.”

I was aware that she was fairly young for the role. I was not aware that she was fourteen years old. Is this what we now expect of official spokespeople in the US? Steven Cheung is no better.

blueshoes · 20/10/2025 01:31

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation in response to US President Donald Trump’s October 17 proposal for peace in Ukraine.
  2. Ukraine’s October 2025 strikes against an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea, appear to have significantly degraded the terminal, and it is unclear when or if Russia will be able to repair it.
  3. Russian state media reported that the majority of Russian drivers expect further increases in gasoline prices as Ukraine continues its long-range strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure.
  4. Ukraine and Russia agreed to a localized ceasefire in western Zaporizhia Oblast to repair the remaining power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid Russian preparations to transfer the ZNPP to the Russian power grid.
  5. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
blueshoes · 20/10/2025 03:13

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war, and suggested that Russia would be willing to “surrender” parts of occupied southern Ukraine. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing.
  2. Russian officials and pro-Kremlin sources are attempting to portray limited Russian offensive operations in the Kherson direction as an ongoing offensive to recapture Kherson City — efforts that are incompatible with Putin’s claimed readiness to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine.
  3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine made bilateral energy proposals to the United States.
  4. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Samara and Orenburg oblasts on the night of October 18 to 19.
  5. German officials reported observing unidentified objects resembling drones over Munich Airport on October 18.
  6. Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/10/2025 07:24

DdraigGoch · 19/10/2025 23:53

Leavitt replied curtly: “Your mom.”

I was aware that she was fairly young for the role. I was not aware that she was fourteen years old. Is this what we now expect of official spokespeople in the US? Steven Cheung is no better.

Extraordinary isn't it.

Natsku · 20/10/2025 08:54

Flowers @dibly

Desdemonashandkerchief · 20/10/2025 10:22

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Putin views the war against Ukraine as his “historic mission,” the Financial Times reports, citing European officials and intelligence sources.

«For him, it’s not about money — it’s about legacy. He wants to go down in history as the greatest Russian ruler since Peter the Great and still believes he can win.»

According to the report, Russia’s military and intelligence services regularly feed Putin information that glorifies the country’s tactical “successes,” claims that Ukraine is suffering heavier losses, and emphasizes Russia’s advantage in resources.

🇱🇹Former Lithuanian Health Minister Aurimas Pečkauskas spent two weeks in the combat zone in Donetsk, working alongside Ukrainian medics.

He served with mobile surgical teams near the front line and later spent several days with the organization TacMed Ukraine, helping coordinate evacuations.

This was Pečkauskas’s third mission to Ukraine. His first visit was as minister, when he toured hospitals in Poltava, Lviv, and Kyiv. During his second, he worked as a doctor at Dnipro’s Mechnikov Hospital.

“We share our knowledge and, at the same time, learn from Ukrainians — both on a clinical and organizational, strategic level. It’s essential to bring this experience back to Lithuania — not only for doctors but also for those responsible for preparing the healthcare system for potential threats,” he said.

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Ukraine has made proposals to the United States regarding gas infrastructure and nuclear power generation, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

He added that both countries are already working on the details of these proposals.

According to Zelensky, the U.S. has signaled its readiness to supply Europe with “as much gas and oil as needed to replace Russian deliveries.”

“In our region, we have the necessary infrastructure and potential that can greatly contribute to Europe’s energy independence. We have submitted our proposals to the United States regarding gas infrastructure, nuclear generation, and several other projects,” the president emphasized.

🔸 Russian forces struck the city of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight, injuring 11 people.

The victims suffered shrapnel wounds, cuts, and bruises. Among those hospitalized is a 69-year-old woman in critical condition due to smoke inhalation.

The attack damaged 14 apartment buildings and a shop, while 30 cars were completely destroyed.

🔹 Far-right Romanian MEP Diana Șoșoacă boasted during a visit to Russia that she allegedly prevented Volodymyr Zelensky from speaking in the Romanian parliament in 2023 — and vowed that next time she would “break his legs.”

The lawmaker made her statement at a meeting of the International Association of Friends of Russia, chaired by pro-Putin activist Pietro Stamezzi. Șoșoacă also attended the celebration of the 20th anniversary of the propaganda channel RT, where Vladimir Putin delivered a speech.

🇺🇸 The United States cannot give all its weapons to Ukraine because it would not have enough for itself, U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

When asked whether he believes Vladimir Putin is open to ending the war without seizing a significant portion of Ukrainian territory, Trump replied:

“Well, he’s going to take something. I mean, they’ve been fighting and they hold a lot of territory. He’s already taken some of it,” the U.S. president said.

🇩🇪 Reinstating military conscription in Germany would serve as a “deterrent factor” against Russia, said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

“If we once again implement conscription for all men of a certain age and collect data on everyone fit for military service, that will be noticed in Russia. In other words, this too is a deterrent factor!” Pistorius stated.

He added that if the country ever declares a “state of defense — which we must prevent,” conscription would be immediately reactivated in accordance with the Basic Law. Germany suspended conscription nearly 15 years ago, in 2011.

“Then we’ll need to know who is ready for deployment and who isn’t. We’re building new, modern structures now. We’ll be ready by mid-2027. By then, we’ll again be able to conduct nationwide conscription,” the minister emphasized.

▪️Earlier, Spiegel reported that Germany’s ruling coalition is considering introducing a lottery-based conscription system if an insufficient number of volunteers come forward.

🔸 According to the Financial Times, during his meeting with Zelensky on October 17, Trump urged Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms for ending the war and said that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin had threatened to “destroy” Ukraine if it refused.

“The meeting between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents repeatedly turned into a heated exchange, during which Trump was ‘constantly swearing,’” sources familiar with the situation told FT.

❗️❗️❗️In Pokrovsk, Russian forces executed civilians.

Near the railway line recently reached by Russian troops, a drone recorded the bodies of three civilians and a woman with gunshot wounds to her legs. Later, an unidentified man carried the injured woman away in his arms.

🇺🇸 Trump denied that he urged Zelensky to give all of Donetsk to Russia, Reuters quotes him as saying from the presidential plane.

According to him, Donetsk region should remain “divided as it is,” since “78% of the land has already been seized by Russia.”

At the same time, Trump proposed a ceasefire along the current front lines after Zelensky refused to voluntarily cede any territory to Moscow.

Two Reuters sources said that the Ukrainian delegation was unsettled by the U.S. president’s musings about security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia.

“It was pretty bad. The message was: ‘Your country will freeze, and your country will be destroyed [if you do not make a deal with Russia],’” one of the sources said.

🔹 Russia attacked Ukraine with three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 60 drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported that air defenses destroyed 38 enemy drones.

However, three ballistic missiles and 20 attack UAVs hit 12 locations across the country.

🔸 President Zelensky held a press briefing for the media. “Suspilne” and “RBC-Ukraine” highlighted the key statements.

🔹Ukraine and the U.S. are preparing a contract for the purchase of 25 Patriot air defense systems. Ukraine is currently in the general queue, but the White House may alter the delivery order. One possible source of funding is frozen Russian assets.

🔹Zelensky believes that Trump withheld the missiles to avoid escalation with Russia. If Putin hadn’t called, Ukraine might have received them. He added that if the U.S. provides Tomahawk missiles, European partners may later follow suit and potentially supply Taurus as well.

🔹Ukraine is ready to attend the Budapest meeting if invited, although Zelensky said the location is “not ideal” for historical and political reasons. Trump believes that Hungary could help accelerate the end of the war.

🔹The issue of territories, including Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, remains unresolved. According to Zelensky, the U.S. is misinterpreting Russia’s signals—while Moscow likely means it won’t advance further, Washington sees this as a possible willingness to return occupied land.

🔹Ukraine has reached agreements with Slovakia on gas imports and knows where to purchase up to $2 billion worth of gas if needed. Norway, Poland, and Greece are also assisting.

🔹Zelensky said Ukraine is closer to ending the war: “That doesn’t mean it will definitely end soon, but President Trump achieved a lot in the Middle East, and on that momentum, he wants to end Russia’s war against Ukraine,” he noted.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 20/10/2025 10:29

United 24 Media:

🔹 Afghanistan and Pakistan have agreed to a border ceasefire, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced.

The agreement was reached following talks mediated by Doha and Ankara. According to the Qatari ministry, both sides also agreed to establish mechanisms to ensure lasting peace and stability, with another meeting planned in the coming days.

🔸 In 2026, Türkiye plans a major defense and security budget increase, allocating 2.155 trillion Turkish liras (about $51.4 billion), Defense Blog reports.

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said the rise is driven by higher personnel costs, expansion of unmanned systems and missile programs, and the need to fund ongoing operations in Syria and Iraq.

Of the total, $28.7 billion will go to the Ministry of National Defense and procurement programs, while $22.7 billion will be allocated to law enforcement agencies, including the police and gendarmerie.

Actual defense expenditures will be higher, as some projects are financed through the extra-budgetary Defense Industry Support Fund.

🔹 President Zelenskyy said Ukraine has made an offer to the United States on cooperation in gas infrastructure and nuclear generation and is now working on the details.

“On energy, we have a common vision with our partners — there should be zero Russian energy resources in Europe, and the signals from America are clear. They are ready to supply Europe with as much gas and oil as needed to replace Russian supplies. Our region has the necessary infrastructure and potential to significantly strengthen Europe’s energy independence,” Zelenskyy stated.

❗️”Putin has lost 1.3 million people. He is not winning, and we are not losing this war,” — President Zelenskyy said, noting that Russia is now in a weak position.

The president added: “I don’t understand why the leader of the largest country on Earth needs any more kilometers. This war is not about land, it is about Ukraine’s independence.”

🔸 Ukraine is ready for peace talks, but cannot give anything to Putin because “he’s a terrorist,” President Zelenskyy told NBC News.

“I agree with President Trump that if we want to stop this war and urgently move to peace talks through diplomacy, we should stay where we are and not give anything extra to Putin, because that’s what he wants.”

He also emphasized that he is ready to meet Putin face-to-face and join the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin in Budapest.

“How can there be any agreements without us about us?”

🔹 Russia carried out a massive strike on a mine in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where 192 miners were underground, DTEK reported. Evacuation efforts are ongoing.

“On the eve of the heating season, the enemy once again targeted Ukraine’s energy sector. This is the fourth large-scale attack on DTEK’s coal enterprises in the past two months,” the company said.

🔸 All miners have been brought to the surface after the Russian attack in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and no one was injured, DTEK reported.

As a reminder, 192 people were trapped underground after a Shahed drone hit the mine.

🔹 Polish Prime Minister Tusk emphasized that no one should pressure President Zelenskyy on territorial concessions. Instead, the focus should be on pressuring Russia to end its aggression. He added that appeasement has never led to a just and lasting peace.

🇬🇧 British media report that Russian hackers broke into UK military bases and stole classified documents.

According to the publication, the attackers accessed the file storage of the Ministry of Defense contractor Dodd Group, which maintains military facilities.

Among the allegedly compromised sites is Lakenheath Air Force Base in Suffolk, where U.S. F-35 fighters are stationed.

🔸 Politico: The EU is discussing ways to strengthen control over Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

A document from the European External Action Service proposes giving member states “an additional tool to enforce sanctions law,” including the right to inspect vessels suspected of circumventing restrictions.

It also recommends bilateral agreements between the EU and flag states — whose flags these vessels fly — to allow pre-authorized inspections.

🔹 “If I am invited to Budapest, we will agree. We are ready to meet in any format that works,” — President Zelenskyy said about the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin.

“Of course, I believe that the main thing is the result. I do not believe that Budapest is the best venue for this meeting. There were many worthy options — Switzerland, Austria, the Vatican, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye. I do not believe that a prime minister who blocks Ukraine everywhere can do anything positive for Ukrainians or even something balanced. When we talk about mediation, I do not believe that the current Hungarian prime minister has, let’s say, an adequate attitude toward this.

If I am invited to Budapest, if it is an invitation in the format when the three of us meet, or, as it is called, shuttle diplomacy — President Trump meets with Putin and President Trump meets with me — then, in one format or another, we will agree,” Zelenskyy said during a conversation with journalists.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 20/10/2025 10:40

Kyiv Independent:

🔹 No, Russian soldiers in Ukraine are not being forced to fight against their will

“Many think that the Russians are forced to fight. In fact, the Kremlin is afraid of mobilizing its people,” Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Nearly two-thirds of Germans now want to send some Ukrainian refugees home, survey shows.

The survey further found that 66% of those polled are against paying citizens' benefits to Ukrainian war refugees.

🔸 ‘Question of self-preservation’ — Baltic states move to curb Moscow’s sway over their Russian speakers

As Moscow steps up its hybrid onslaught against the Baltic states, local Russian-speaking populations present a potential weak spot to exploit.

Russian is the mother tongue of roughly one-quarter and one-third of the populations of Estonia and Latvia, respectively, two small nations at NATO’s eastern frontier.

⚡️Ukraine peace deal should give no unoccupied lands to 'terrorist' Putin, Zelensky tells NBC.

Soldiers should "stay where they stay," Zelensky said, and not offer new territory to Putin, who has reportedly demanded full control of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war.

🔹 Ukraine war latest: Putin seeks full control of Donetsk Oblast as key to any deal with Ukraine, WP reports

Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine hand over full control of Donetsk Oblast to Russia as a condition for ending the war during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump this week, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 18, citing two senior U.S. officials.

However, Ukraine does not plan to surrender any unoccupied territories to Russia as part of peace agreement to end the full-scale war Zelensky told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview broadcast on Oct. 19.

At the same time, following high-level talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials in Washington this week, European leaders are renewing calls for a peace plan to end Russia’s invasion, after an apparent shift in U.S. support for Kyiv.

⚡️'He's going to take something' — Trump says Putin has 'won' territory in Ukraine.

"He's won certain property," Trump told Fox News, indicating that Putin would lay claim to Ukrainian lands as part of a U.S.-brokered peace deal.

Trump reportedly pushed Zelensky to surrender Ukraine's eastern Donbas region in their Oct. 17 meeting, an offical told the Financial Times.

⚡️US 'ready' to replace Russian oil, gas supplies to Europe, Zelensky claims.

The United States is prepared to supply European countries with "as much gas and oil as is needed" to replace Europe's dependence on Russian energy imports, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed in his evening address on Oct. 19.

⚡️Belarus seeks talks with Kyiv amid efforts to break Western isolation.

The head of Belarus' State Security Committee Ivan Tertel claimed on Oct. 19 that his agency is prepared to engage in dialogue with Kyiv to "find a consensus" to end Ukraine's war with Russia, Belarusian state media reported.

The comments from Tertel come as Minsk has ramped up its efforts to break out of diplomatic isolation imposed by Western nations for its role in and support of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️Updated: Trump suggested offering both Kyiv, Moscow security guarantees during White House meeting, Reuters reports.

U.S. President Donald Trump mused about offering both Kyiv and Moscow security guarantees during his White House meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Oct. 17, leaving the Ukrainian delegation taken aback, Reuters reported on Oct. 19, citing its sources.

⚡️Major Russian gas plant forced to suspend gas intake following Ukrainian drone attack.

Russia's Orenburg gas processing plant was forced to halt gas intake from Kazakhstan on Oct. 19 following a Ukrainian drone attack on the facility, Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry announced.

The plant, which is located in the southwestern Orenburg Oblast and is the largest of its kind in the world, was targeted in a drone strike, Ukraine's military said earlier in the day.

⚡️ Update: Trump denies asking Zelensky to cede all of Donbas to Russia.

"We never discussed that. We think that what they should do is just stop at the lines where they are, the battle line... the rest is very tough to negotiate," Trump told reporters on Air Force One.

🔸 Ukraine had a plan on how to engage with Trump. Then, Putin called

President Volodymyr Zelensky, his team, and allies have been working for months to bring U.S. President Donald Trump into Ukraine's corner.

Days before Zelensky arrived in Washington to meet with Trump on Oct. 17, the two leaders spoke twice by phone, fueling hopes that the visit would bring tangible results. Trump publicly weighed in on the transfer of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Then, Vladimir Putin called.

The call between the U.S. and Russian presidents effectively derailed the Washington meeting and the expectations that came with it, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.

⚡️ EU expects to approve 19th sanctions package against Russia on Oct. 23.

"We are expecting this week, also, to adopt a 19th package of sanctions. Unfortunately, not today, but we have also a leaders' meeting coming up on Thursday," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.

🔹 Ukraine's embattled steel sector's latest struggle? Polish protectionists

Ukraine’s metal sector says it is being made a scapegoat for Poland's steel troubles, as Polish groups urge Warsaw to press Brussels to limit growing Ukrainian imports.

In the first half of 2025, Ukraine's steel exports to Poland slightly increased. In response, Polish industry associations and trade unions are now complaining about unfair competition and demanding a 12-month embargo on Ukrainian steel.

🔸 These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Oct. 20, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Desdemonashandkerchief · 20/10/2025 10:45

Kyiv Post:

🔹 White House divided over Ukraine: Trump presses for partition while Tomahawk decision looms.

Trump advocates “let it be cut the way it is” in Donbas. Expert flags internal clash between “Witkoff and Rubio” factions over concessions and arms policy.

🔸 Trump told Zelensky at their meeting in Washington D.C. that he’d have to give up territory. The Ukrainian leader’s response was unequivocal — “No bounty for their crimes.”

🔹 Ukraine will receive Patriot systems every year — a long-term contract for 25 launchers is in the works — Zelensky

🔸 No retreat from Donbas — Ukraine’s position remains unchanged — Zelensky

Here are more key statements from the president’s latest press briefing:

▪️On Tomahawks: Zelensky suggests that Trump is avoiding escalation with Russia until he meets with them directly.

▪️Budapest is NOT an appropriate location for peace talks, given that Orbán blocks Ukraine at every turn.

▪️Putin called Trump over the Tomahawks, reacting to Trump’s rhetoric. “Russia is clearly afraid of that decision.”

▪️Russia is again pushing the false line that Ukraine is “preparing a new offensive” and is “not ready for a ceasefire.”

▪️“This war cannot be ended quickly. But we’re getting closer to an end.”

▪️Ukraine needs to secure gas worth $2 billion for the winter. Part of this funding has been found.

▪️The US will completely replace Russian gas in Europe. Russia has lost the European gas war to America.

▪️Ukraine could build 9 additional power units if cooperation with the US continues.

▪️“There are decisions Ukraine has no right to make, even under pressure.”

▪️Putin doesn’t need Donbas for its own sake — it’s a tool to create an illusion of success. But no one can guarantee he won’t go further later.

▪️Security guarantees remain Ukraine’s top priority. So far, Ukraine has signed 28 bilateral security agreements with international partners.

▪️“Right now, Trump is essentially giving Putin another chance.”

▪️Frontline updates: The situation in Pokrovsk is difficult. In Kupyansk, conditions have improved. “We’re holding our positions.”

🔹 Speaking exclusively to Kyiv Post, analyst Glen Howard, president of the Saratoga Foundation, said Trump’s approach is about using Tomahawks as leverage:

“He wants to use the weapons to pressure Putin and lure him back to Budapest for a deal.”

🔸 Zelensky said he’s open to joining the upcoming talks between Trump and Putin, expected to take place in Budapest.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/10/2025 11:50

Just seen this from the Kyiv Post:

"The Kremlin has rejected Trump’s plan: “Russia’s negotiating position to stop troops at current lines remains unchanged,” Peskov said.
Earlier, both the Kremlin and Russia’s Foreign Ministry claimed that such a halt would contradict the Russian constitution."

If this is the case, it might piss the orange flipflop off enough to consider the Tomahawks again.

Natsku · 21/10/2025 03:06

God I hope so

DuncinToffee · 21/10/2025 10:38

CNN is reporting that the Putin-Trump meeting has been postponed

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 11:41

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Lavrov, Rubio hold phone call (https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-rubio-hold-phone-call-ahead-of-planned-trump-putin-meeting/) ahead of planned Trump-Putin meeting.
Lavrov and Rubio are also scheduled to meet in person on Oct. 23, according to Reuters.

⚡️ Zelensky to join 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-attend-coalition-of-the-willing-meeting-in-london-this-week-macron-says/) in UK this week, Macron says.

Europe moves to end all Russian gas imports (kyivindependent.com/europe-moves-to-end-all-russian-gas-imports/)
As Russian attacks, financed in part by massive energy and fuel revenues, drive Ukraine into blackouts, European nations have welcomed the bill, which will slash billions from Russia’s budget.

⚡️ Gen. Drapatyi (kyivindependent.com/general-drapatyi-to-head-new-command-structure-covering-kharkiv-oblast-amid-ongoing-reorganization/) to head new task force amid Ukrainian command’s controversial corps shake-up.
The announcement comes amid long-documented tension between Syrksyi and the 42-year-old Drapatyi, one of Ukraine's most highly-regarded generals.

⚡️ 'Russia's stance doesn't change' — Kremlin responds (kyivindependent.com/russias-position-hasnt-changed-kremlin-says/) to Trump's proposal to freeze Ukraine front line.
Russia has previously rejected freezing the war along the current front lines while reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-live-2025-10-20/): HUR strikes next-gen Russian radar system in Crimea with long-range drones.
"The demilitarization of Crimea continues!" HUR wrote.

⚡️Blaze reignites (kyivindependent.com/blaze-flares-up-again-at-oil-depot-in-russian-occupied-crimea-media-reports/) at oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, media reports, Ukrainian drones spotted in area.
A fire at the ATAN oil depot in the village of Hvardiiske, located in Russian-occupied Crimea, reignited with increased intensity, the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported on Oct. 21.

⚡️'Massive air attack' — Drones attack (kyivindependent.com/massive-air-attack-drones-attack-russias-bryansk-rostov-oblasts-causing-damage-authorities-claim/) Russia's Bryansk, Rostov oblasts, causing damage, injuring 2, authorities claim.
Drone attacks against Russia overnight on Oct. 21 caused damage and injured one in Russia's Bryansk Oblast and another in Rostov Oblast, authorities claimed.

⚡️Russian ‘sabotage’ unit that killed civilians (kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-shoot-civilians-dead-in-central-pokrovsk-after-infiltrating-front-line-military-reports/) in Pokrovsk later eliminated, Ukrainian military says.
A Russian assault group shot dead several unarmed civilians inside the embattled city of Pokrovsk after infiltrating behind Ukrainian lines, the 7th Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces reported on Oct. 20.

⚡️ Russia faces nearly $100 billion deficit (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-faces-100-billion-deficit-in-2026-zelensky-says/) in 2026, Zelensky says.
Ukraine expects Russia to face a nearly $100 billion budget deficit by next year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 19, underscoring Moscow's growing economic challenges amid the war.

⚡️ Spanish airport temporarily halts flights (kyivindependent.com/spanish-airport-temporarily-halts-operations-over-suspicious-drone-sightings/) over suspicious drone sighting.
The news follows a string of similar cases across Europe in recent weeks, which have already caused air traffic disruptions in Germany, Norway, and Denmark.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 21, 2025
■ Engagements & casualties well above average
■ Most single-day armored losses since early June, unarmored also above average
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, including 6 missiles; interception rate could be better
■ Only two 🇺🇦 strikes reported but 🇷🇺 strikes also below average

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social)

My day job involves making sense of data. In my spare time, I apply these skills to Ukraine's fight for freedom.

https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 12:29

Bugger, forgot

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 12:32

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🤔 The Rubio–Lavrov meeting scheduled for this week has been postponed — CNN.
Journalists note that it is currently unclear how this will affect the planned talks between Trump and Putin in Budapest.

🇵🇱 Poland may land Putin’s plane to execute the ICC arrest warrant — Foreign Minister
“I cannot guarantee that an independent Polish court would not order the government to escort such a plane to hand over the suspect to The Hague,” Sikorski said.

“If I am invited to Budapest, we will agree. We are ready to meet in any format that works,” — President Zelenskyy said about the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin.

The EU is preparing new membership rules that could speed up Ukraine’s accession, — Politico.
According to the publication, the European Union is considering accepting new countries without granting them full voting rights at the initial stage of membership.
Such an approach, the initiators believe, could ease opposition to enlargement from several member states, including Hungary, and pave the way for Ukraine, Moldova, and other candidates to join.
Politico, citing three European diplomats and a senior EU official, reports that new members would receive most benefits of EU membership, but their veto rights would be temporarily limited until institutional reforms are completed to make decision-making more efficient — particularly by introducing qualified majority voting in most policy areas.

The EU will not import Russian gas even after the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine, said European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen.
According to him, the share of Russian gas in the EU’s consumption fell from 45% in 2022 to about 13% in October 2025.

The EU Council has approved a plan to completely phase out Russian gas imports starting January 1, 2028.
The phase-out will be gradual:
▫️Short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025, may remain valid until June 17, 2026;
▫️Long-term contracts will be allowed until January 1, 2028;
▫️New contracts from January 1, 2026, are prohibited.
Amendments to existing contracts must be minimal and cannot result in increased supply volumes, except for certain EU member states without access to sea routes.
The decision also introduces new monitoring and reporting mechanisms to prevent Russian gas from being rerouted through third countries. Suppliers will be required to verify the origin of their gas.

Russian aviation losses from the regular implementation of the “Carpet” plan due to Ukrainian UAV attacks in 2025 are estimated at $1.6–$2.4 billion, according to open Russian sources.
RBC data shows that during the first eight months of the year, flight restrictions were imposed nearly 500 times at Russian airports.
According to Kommersant, such disruptions during major shutdowns — like the one on July 5–6, when multiple hub airports were closed — cost airlines up to 20 billion rubles ($247 million) per day.
At St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport, the first wave of closures from July 4–7 (172 canceled flights) resulted in direct losses of 50–55 million rubles ($617,000–$679,000). Overall, summer losses reached 100–150 million rubles ($1.24–$1.85 million).
In October, simultaneous groundings were recorded at 7–11 airports, including Volgograd, Kazan, Samara, Sochi, and Ufa.
Average daily losses during multiple airport closures reached 6–12 billion rubles ($74–$148 million) for airlines, while local shutdowns cost 1–3 billion rubles ($12–$37 million).
From January to October 2025, estimated airline losses reached 120–180 billion rubles ($1.48–$2.23 billion), while airports lost 8–15 billion rubles ($100–$186 million).
In total, Russia’s aviation industry may have lost around 130–195 billion rubles ($1.6–$2.4 billion) due to the “Carpet” plan this year.
According to Euractiv, about 8% of LNG shipments — around 70–80 vessels per year — will undergo pre-inspection before entering European ports.

🇺🇦 Two Ukrainian villages were named among the best tourist villages in the world by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
The Best Tourism Villages award ceremony took place in Huzhou, China.
The list includes two Transcarpathian villages—Kolochava, known for its ten museums, and Synevyrska Poliana, located near the legendary “Eye of the Carpathians.”

❗️The number of victims of the Russian strike on Kharkiv has increased to nine, — the mayor

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 12:36

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky and European leaders call for an IMMEDIATE ceasefire, urging that the current front line become the basis for peace talks — a joint statement by the Ukrainian president and European leaders.

The United States has refused to back the G7 plan to transfer $140 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

Confusion erupted over a reported meeting (www.kyivpost.com/post/62619) between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio, after the Kremlin flatly denied that any such talks were planned.

Russia struck Ukraine’s Poltava region with a jet-engine assisted
guided KAB aerial bomb for the first time (www.kyivpost.com/post/62530) – this modernized glide bomb can now reach over 100 kilometers.

Ukraine has reached key energy agreements with the US, (www.kyivpost.com/post/62540) while EU partners pledge support to safeguard energy security this winter, Zelensky said.

“Trump got played by Putin” — In an interview with the Kyiv Post, (www.kyivpost.com/post/62592) Ambassador Steven Pifer suggests Washington’s mediating efforts are “doomed to fail” without increased pressure and “severe consequences” for Putin.

How Ukraine’s drone industry evolved from a wartime necessity into a high-tech sector – and why government policy will decide its future. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62513)

In Poland, a minibus collided with a convoy of U.S. military vehicles, including Hummers. Four American soldiers and one civilian — the driver of the minibus — were injured.

Inside Ukraine’s Drone Transformation: From Defense Mission to Emerging Export Power

Hryhoriy Shverk, founder of General Cherry, explains how Ukraine’s drone industry evolved from a wartime necessity into a high-tech sector – and why government policy will decide its future

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62513)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 12:40

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇬🇧 The U.K. will allow its military to shoot down drones near its bases.
Last year, unidentified drones were detected flying over four British airbases used by U.S. forces, and in recent months, drones have repeatedly violated European airspace.
Against this backdrop, U.K. Defence Secretary John Healey announced plans to authorize soldiers and police to shoot down drones that pose a threat to military facilities in the country.
The new powers may also extend to civilian sites, such as airports. @notimagain

🇺🇸 Trump denied that he urged Zelensky to give all of Donetsk to Russia, Reuters quotes him as saying from the presidential plane.
According to him, Donetsk region should remain “divided as it is,” since “78% of the land has already been seized by Russia.”
At the same time, Trump proposed a ceasefire along the current front lines after Zelensky refused to voluntarily cede any territory to Moscow.
Two Reuters sources said that the Ukrainian delegation was unsettled by the U.S. president’s musings about security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia.
“It was pretty bad. The message was: ‘Your country will freeze, and your country will be destroyed [if you do not make a deal with Russia],’” one of the sources said.

🇺🇸 During his meeting with Zelensky, Trump “talked nonstop” about “his frustration over not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize,” reports The Washington Post, citing a European diplomat.
The same diplomat described the meeting as “chaotic.”
Regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, Trump reportedly said that Russia “only wants Donbas.” He urged Ukraine to give up the entire region, calling such a deal “a good one,” and added that Putin “wants to end the war, and it can be done quickly.”

🇰🇿 The gas processing plant in Russia’s Orenburg region has suspended gas supplies from Kazakhstan following Ukrainian drone strikes, Reuters reports.
As a result, Kazakhstan was forced to cut oil and gas condensate production at the major Karachaganak field by 25–30% starting October 19.
Last year, Karachaganak produced around 263,000 barrels of oil per day, exported via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a Black Sea terminal in Russia, and the Druzhba pipeline to Germany.
Reuters sources say partial gas supply restoration could happen by October 21, but it remains unclear how long full recovery from the attack will take.

🇦🇹 Vienna is closing its last reception center for Ukrainian refugees.
The Quartier Schlossberg shelter, which could accommodate more than 200 people, has long been at full capacity. Authorities have decided to shut it down by the end of the year.
Vienna was the last federal state in Austria to operate its own reception center for Ukrainian refugees — the one in Vorarlberg closed earlier this summer.
Since its opening, the Vienna center has assisted nearly 9,000 Ukrainians, providing short-term housing, meals, consultations, and support with paperwork or relocation to other federal states.
Currently, 10,786 Ukrainians are registered in Vienna’s basic support system, and around 30,000 across Austria.
In September alone, 2,000 refugees from Ukraine arrived in Austria — a number unlikely to decline soon given the ongoing war and approaching winter.

Russian forces struck Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region with missiles and drones, injuring 16 people — 15 of them hospitalized.
According to regional governor Vladyslav Haivanenko, four victims are in serious condition, while the others are in moderate condition. An infrastructure facility was damaged, and a fire broke out.
In addition, Russia attacked the Nikopol area with artillery and FPV drones — hitting Nikopol, as well as the Pokrovske and Myrove communities. The attack destroyed an agricultural enterprise and damaged an apartment building, two private houses, two outbuildings, a gas pipeline, and power lines.

In Kharkiv, the number of people injured in last night’s Russian airstrike has risen to 11.
Eight women and three men suffered acute stress reactions.
According to preliminary reports, Russian forces struck the city overnight with six guided aerial bombs (KABs). The Industrialnyi district was hit, with impacts recorded in a residential area and at a civilian enterprise.

notimagain · 21/10/2025 13:04

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

*Last year, unidentified drones were detected flying over four British airbases used by U.S. forces, and in recent months, drones have repeatedly violated European airspace.
Against this backdrop, U.K. Defence Secretary John Healey announced plans to authorize soldiers and police to shoot down drones that pose a threat to military facilities in the country.

The new powers may also extend to civilian sites, such as airports*

I'm not sure last years events in East Anglia were ever confirmed as drones (shades of the previously told Gatwick story)...mind you giving people permission to engage might sharpen up a few individuals recognition skills......the minute someone kills a bird of prey (some of the small raptors can look horribly like drones when hovering) the brown stuff will really hit the fan.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 15:13

On an entirely different note, @notimagain , on the surface that looks like democratic accountability is alive and well in France if an ex-President can actually go to jail for a crime. Is it above-board, or is there a pile of nasty stuff under the surface?

notimagain · 21/10/2025 15:45

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/10/2025 15:13

On an entirely different note, @notimagain , on the surface that looks like democratic accountability is alive and well in France if an ex-President can actually go to jail for a crime. Is it above-board, or is there a pile of nasty stuff under the surface?

I think it's fairly above board.

Have to say unlike some countries the legal system here will come down like a ton of bricks on any elected official who are found to have taken liberties.

It's not at all unusual to hear of Mayors going to prison over things like planning permissions possibly being granted in exchange for cash or (as happened recently somewhere not far from us) blowing the town budget on a vanity project.

blueshoes · 21/10/2025 18:29

@notimagain very impressed with the rule of law in France. Wish we had that in the UK for our politicians.

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