Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

[MagicFox]

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Given Trumps love in with Putin, in itself very worrying, why should Putin seek peace? Trump wont issue secondary sanctions

VP will go along with the peace process, then blame others for its failure, he has no reason to stop, Trump will come to his aid.

On military, even with 5% of GDP, Europe still cannot/wont provide all the troops required and still met other obligations known and not yet known.

We are years away from 5%.

Tripwire? if Russia went against such a force, they will believe reinforcements are wont be coming - cannot rely on America.

In Bosnia I'm pretty sure that the troops started under NATO but then switched to UN when things started to settle. I remember asking about the beret change.

They could send UN peace keepers instead of NATO.

Putin has suggested Moscow as a venue for talks with Zelenksy, according to "sources close to the talks", via AFP

Tripwire? if Russia went against such a force, they will believe reinforcements are wont be coming - cannot rely on America.

A second invasion would likely come after Trump was out of office. If the next president is a Democrat, they might feel differently about committing troops to a peacekeeping force. And the US continues to have substantial ground forces in Europe, primarily stationed in Germany where they could be deployed to Ukraine fairly quickly. US forces regularly practice deployment to Europe, joining up with per-positioned equipment, so any US forces deployed from Germany could be back filled in short order.

You also can't look at a tripwire force in isolation. If the Russians inflict casualties on European forces defending Ukraine, they open themselves up to counter strikes in other domains. European and American air and naval forces could engage the Russians in Ukraine and elsewhere. Such a move by the Russians exposes them to risks that they can't control or reliably predict. This is a key aspect of the deterrence.

Yep. As I predicted at 07.48, upthread.
And a possible outcome.
What a nasty snake Putin is.

Blimey,I hope he declines their refreshments.

@MissConductUS I agree.
If this can be stopped right now , Ukraine can be shored up massively with breathing room and space without Putin watching over every manoeuvre and threatening nukes.

I do also believe if the USA gets in with it's minerals deal if that went ahead ...again very legitimate use of assets in Ukraine to defend their property. .
I fully believe if the war can be stopped , it would never ever happen again because unlike last time when Putin's build up was met only with an elderly lady with a rifle and tin hat...any next time would be met with most of Europe and the USA in force.

He's declined a meeting in Moscow.
I'm sure they could have found a way to impregnate Zelensky's note pad with slow acting poison.

As for reconstituting Ukraine's forces. Take away those not fit to ever fight again, those who join their wives abroad, the ones who seek better opportunities abroad, have past fighting age and so on. Plus, young men under 22 will be allowed to leave. How many will be left?

According to this, Why the US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Matters - The agreement to set up a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund reinforces security, sovereignty and strategic supply chains. , having working mines and mineral processing facilities in Ukraine is at least a decade away. So there won't be much to protect in the near term.

I agree that Ukraine will be much better prepared to fight off another Russian invasion, but they've done quite well this time. The right kit made a lot of difference.

And don't underestimate the combat effectiveness of elderly ladies with rifles. 😁

It's a good question. Military recruitment is largely driven by national culture and the resources the country is willing to put into it. Ukraine's current population is about 38 million people, and every year more young people reach the age bracket that makes them eligible for military service.

They started the war with about 200k soldiers and now have almost a million. If the war stops, they can probably cut that in half. And I'd guess they'll continue mandatory service to get the numbers they need.

While Russia has numerical advantages, Ukraine's army has gotten much larger and better during the war. Russia's army has lost almost all of their elite units and a large part of their officer corps. They're in a much weaker position than they were in 2022. New Russian soldiers are getting two weeks of training before going to the front.

And the supply of men isn't unlimited in Russia either. The enlistment bonuses they're paying now are unsustainable.

Trump has ruled out US troops in Ukraine... a green light to his mate Putin.

A wise POTUS would have left it open "I don't discuss future US deployments..." or similar, Biden did similar, hence the invasion.

Trump said today, describing Ukraine, "what country takes on a military 10x its size"

So yes it is "mate" - Putin invaded Ukraine, its not a difficult google.

Its unbelievable and the UK is going to give this guy a state visit.

Even worse were his exact words. "You don't take on a nation ten times your size."
So often media interviewers don't grasp the moment, or in America's case they don't put their President on the spot, as we do with our politicians.

"What should Ukraine have done instead of fighting back."?
Had they asked that as a follow up, Trump would have been in difficulty.

Putin wanted the tri-lateral meeting to be in Moscow The Hague would be a better choice

Yes i was going on my memory, it is truly scary, what on earth does Putin have over this guy?

Russia has killed people all over Europe, going back decades, no where would safe and would achieve nothing, Putin isn't interested in peace.

Trump has phoned Orban to discuss holding it there.
Nothing against the long suffering Hungarians, but Orban is not neutral.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2025

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.
• Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit.
• Russian officials largely rejected Europe's proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement.
• Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.
• Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings.
• Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks.
• A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Surely, IF there is a meeting, Alaska would be a better place? Putin has already shown he is ok there and so would Zelenskyy.

It's a really tricky decision because even though he's already been there Putin could complain that to meet Zelenskyy he wants it to be more 'neutral' ground. And Zelenskyy needs to be extremely careful that wherever it is doesn't favour Putin in any way, for fear of an attack (polonium).

This is where the Pope needs to step in and offer the Vatican, which he already did some weeks ago. And that may well be being discussed behind the scenes.

Yes but given the welcome Putin got, it would be Z saying its not neutral!!

I’m not sure that would be an option given Italy is a party to the Rome Statute.

Looks like a win for the European leaders?

Steve Rosenberg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Norw6T-jFDk

Following the meeting of Trump, Zelensky & European leaders one Russian paper says “Zelensky & Europeans poured sugar into the gas tank of the Alaska negotiations. They sweet-talked Trump.” Another paper: “Details of Ukraine settlement are more & more confusing.” #ReadingRussia

The Vatican is technically an independent state, I reckon it could pull off giving him diplomatic immunity in such a way he'd be comfortable with it.

If Russia wants to kill Zelenskyy, which they do, the Vatican will not have the security required

Zelenskyy has to be extremely careful, as i'm sure he will be, Trump is wanting the meeting without him....thats a worry.