Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

[MagicFox]

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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I can't imagine. The meeting will be at Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson.

Putin and Trump can fly directly onto the based. It's highly secure, which will minimize the need for additional security personnel. The Russian are already fully aware of what military assets are there, which are primarily a tactical air wing and the 11th Airborne Division HQ. They won't see anything they haven't already discovered by satellite recon.

They didn't say what the concerns were,I assumed security but I see from the above it's unlikely to be that

Maybe they view him as a war criminal? Maybe someone has authorised his arrest? That'd be bloody marvellous wouldn't it?

Yep, I'm sure the counter spooks will have done their stuff with regard to concealing what needs concealing but there's a lot you can't hide these days

Place marking with what seems like Trumps cunning plan. Baldrick and a turnip would be better.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-russia-ukraine-west-bank-occupation-b2806973.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawMJmulleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFmT3ZqQkhmNERZYTFGQmtvAR4gqVxcXb5GqODBHGccK3rf_BuI3akRgpEtxMdQfov3cMc1zqofZHTnGKmbVg_aem_panQDIw5zL2kd5wSFb2I2A

Appreciate the updates - slava Ukraini

That would be the dream

Indeed…but I have zero hopes of that happening.

I am incredibly anxious about tomorrow 😔

Me too. Feels like a massive crunch point. I was talking about it with DH yesterday. Trump is so unfathomably flaky. It feels as though however much he agrees at the moment with Zelenskyy and Europe, the moment he gets into Putin's clutches he'll forget everything. I think he just admires Putin so much, so ridiculously, Putin is a father substitute. And Putin gives no fucks what anyone thinks or says about him whereas Trump is really completely beholden to being admired, he craves it.
So on the one hand he wants the Nobel Prize and on the other hand Putin is his daddy. It's a psychodramatic nightmare and it's one of literal global proportions.

I wish I could nuke the pair of them while they're in the same room but that's my personal delusions of megalomania (still would give it my best shot though if I wasn't a 5 ft 3 70 year old woman of mild manner).

I feel the same @heldinadream

Same, although not quite sure I'm 'mildmannered' ... God, what is it about these awful old male leaders.

I think western MSM needs a bit more of this sort of coverage. I know some French broadcast channels such as BFM continue to provide on the ground reports from places like Kyiv on an almost daily basis but I wonder if in some other countries the broadcast MSM choose to concentrate on events elsewhere..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/14/ukraine-kyiv-drones-vladimir-putin-missiles

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia exceeds monthly recruitment targets (kyivindependent.com/russia-exceeds-monthly-recruitment-targets-by-over-100-ukraines-hur-says/), Ukraine's military intelligence says.
The Kremlin planned to enlist 343,000 people in 2025 and has already fulfilled over 60% of that goal, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), said.

⚡️Trump may offer Putin minerals access (kyivindependent.com/trump-may-offer-putin-minerals-access-in-ukraine-in-exchange-for-peace-telegraph-reports/) in exchange for peace, Telegraph reports.
U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine and natural resources in Alaska in an effort to secure a ceasefire, The Telegraph reported on Aug. 13.

⚡️US will support Ukraine security guarantees, but no NATO (kyivindependent.com/us-will-support-ukraine-security-guarantees-but-no-nato-membership-macron-says/) membership, Macron says.
The United States is prepared to provide Ukraine with security guarantees once peace is established, but NATO will not be part of that process, French President Emmanuel Macron said Aug. 13.

⚡️Russia unveils (kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-delegation-schedule-for-putin-trump-alaska-meeting/) delegation, schedule for Putin-Trump Alaska meeting.
The Russian delegation will include Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev.

⚡️Estonia expels (kyivindependent.com/estonia-expels-russian-diplomat-for-alleged-attempts-to-undermine-constitutional-order-media-reports/) senior Russian diplomat for alleged subversion, sanctions violations.
Estonia said Dmitry Prilepin, the first secretary of the Russian Embassy in Tallinn, had engaged in efforts to erode the country's legal order, sow divisions in society, and aid crimes against the state.

⚡️Update: Russia can’t have ‘veto against Ukraine‘s pathway to EU and NATO,’ coalition of the willing (kyivindependent.com/us-will-support-ukraine-security-guarantees-but-no-nato-membership-macron-says/) says.
The coalition also reaffirmed readiness to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, "including through plans by those willing to deploy a reassurance force once hostilities have ceased."

⚡️ Russia, Belarus to practice nuclear, Oreshnik deployment (kyivindependent.com/russia-belarus-to-practice-nuclear-oreshnik-deployment-during-zapad-drills-minsk-claims/) plans during Zapad drills, Minsk claims.
"The head of state demands that we must be ready for all possible scenarios," Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.

⚡️ Ukraine open to discussing aerial truce with Russia, (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-ready-to-discuss-aerial-truce-with-russia-zelenskys-aide-says/) Zelensky's aide says.
"Russia is unlikely to abandon the use of strategic aviation or large-scale drone deployments," Mykhailo Podolyak told Corriere della Sera.
"However, Ukraine is ready to discuss and consider this scenario," he added.

⚡️ Update: Zelensky meets Starmer (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-reportedly-meet-starmer-in-uk-after-call-with-trump/) in UK day before Trump-Putin summit.

⚡️ Germany pledges $500 million (kyivindependent.com/germany-pledges-500-million-for-nato-led-us-weapons-supply-to-ukraine/) for NATO-led US weapons supply to Ukraine.
The support will come through NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism, which coordinates funding for Kyiv's most urgent battlefield needs.

⚡️US temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian transactions (kyivindependent.com/us-temporarily-lifts-sanctions-on-russian-transactions-to-facilitate-alaska-peace-talks/) to facilitate Alaska peace talks.
Washington will authorize certain sanctioned transactions that are required to organize upcoming U.S.-Russia talks in Alaska. The authorization expires on Aug. 20.

⚡️Ukrainian forces receive 1,000 FPV drones (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-receive-1-000-fpv-drones-in-first-rapid-deliveries-via-dot-chain-defense-marketplace/) in first rapid deliveries via pilot weapons marketplace.
Deliveries via the new DOT Chain Defense marketplace were four times shorter than the standard procurement procedure, according to Ukraine's Defense Procurement Agency.

⚡️ Russia restricts Telegram, WhatsApp calls (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-restricts-telegram-whatsapp-calls/) amid push for domestic alternatives.
Russia's communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, claimed the apps have become "the main services used to defraud and extort money, and to involve Russian citizens in sabotage and terrorist activities."

⚡️'Outrageous'— Hungary condemns (https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-condemns-ukrainian-strike-on-druzhba-pipeline/) Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Druzhba pipeline.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto accused Ukraine of "endangering Hungary's energy supply" and called on Kyiv to halt attacks on energy infrastructure serving Hungary.

Russian-linked church faces potential ban in Ukraine as it remains reluctant to officially cut ties with Moscow
(https://kyivindependent.com/russian-linked-church-faces-potential-ban-in-ukraine-as-it-remains-reluctant-to-officially-cut-ties-with-moscow/)

⚡️ Russia aims to build 79,000 Shahed-type drones (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-aims-to-build-79-000-shahed-type-drones-in-2025/) in 2025, Ukraine's military intelligence says.

⚡️Update: Ukrainian drone strike sets fire (kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-sparks-blaze-at-oil-refinery-in-russias-volgograd-russian-official-says/) to Russia's Volgograd oil refinery, Kyiv confirms.
The facility processes over 15 million metric tons of oil every year, amounting to 5.6% of Russia's refining capacity, the Ukrainian military said.

Russia's hybrid empire
(https://kyivindependent.com/hybrid-empire/)
"When war rages on the front line — with trenches, tanks, drones, and rockets — it is visible. But a far more dangerous war is fought where it goes unnoticed: in negotiations, in memoranda, in the emphasis on ethnic grievances and cultural claims," writes Ukrainian author Vitaly Portnikov, in his recent op-ed.

⚡️ Drone reportedly hits apartment building (kyivindependent.com/drone-reportedly-hits-apartment-building-in-russias-rostov-on-don-injuring-at-least-13/) in Russia's Rostov-on-Don, officials say 13 injured.

⚡️Russian attacks kill (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-at-least-8-injure-18-across-ukraine-over-past-day/) at least 8, injure 18 across Ukraine over past day.
Ukraine's Air Force said Russia launched 45 Shahed-type drones, other UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), and two S-300/400 missiles overnight from several directions.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — AUG 14, 2025
■ Casualties up despite fewer engagements
■ Unusually high unarmored vehicle losses relative to engagements (discrepancy)
■ Few overnight attacks but interception rate could be better; 🇺🇦 strikes hit a logistics depot

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Zelenskyy confirmed that Trump will call him after meeting with Putin
The Ukrainian president said that Trump offered him “a contact” after the meeting in Alaska, during which the leaders would discuss “all the results, if there are any.”

President Zelenskyy took part in the sixth meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, where he and international partners expressed support for Trump’s peace initiatives.
The participants stressed that the path to peace must be determined with Ukraine’s participation and that negotiations

⚡️The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not leave Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire, Zelenskyy said.
This is the final decision after [yesterday]'s talks with European leaders, the president added.

⚡️Trump warns Putin of ‘retaliation’ if Russia doesn’t agree to end the war
When asked if Russia would face consequences for not moving toward a peace deal on Ukraine, Trump replied: “Yes, it will.”

This year, Ukraine has already received 1 million rounds of large-caliber ammunition under the Czech initiative, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said.
“I can also announce that as of today, through the Czech initiative for the supply of ammunition this year, we have already transferred one million units of large-caliber ammunition to Ukraine,” Fiala stated.

❗️Russia, despite the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, is preparing to test a new nuclear-capable cruise missile “Burevestnik,” Reuters reports.
According to the agency, satellite images of the “Pankovo” test site in the Barents Sea indicate preparations.

The Russian Federation has issued a warning for civil aviation for the period from August 9 to 22, during which the missile launch may take place.

The U.S. Treasury Department has temporarily eased sanctions against Russia, issuing a license for transactions necessary for the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska.
The license is valid until August 20 and applies only to actions directly related to the negotiations. Russian assets will not be unblocked, and all other sanctions remain in force.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Witkoff supports the idea of Russia maintaining military and political control over the Ukrainian territories it has seized — The Times
Under this plan, Russia would control the occupied Ukrainian territories militarily and economically, but without formal annexation — keeping Ukraine’s borders intact on paper.

Statement by Zelensky and Merz after talks with Trump
▪️ Ukraine is ready for negotiations on territorial issues — but only based on the contact line and after a ceasefire is in place.
▪️ The central topic of the Trump-Putin meeting must be the ceasefire.
▪️ Ukraine and its partners have agreed on five joint principles, including the right to join NATO.
▪️ The Defence Forces will not withdraw from Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire.
▪️ Legal recognition of territories occupied by Russia is not on the table.
▪️ Key questions regarding Ukraine’s territories will be decided at the leaders’ level.
▪️ Ukraine must receive security guarantees. Trump expressed support and readiness to take part.
▪️ Trump proposed that Zelensky discuss joint steps after the summit with Putin.

Trump said that if his first meeting with Putin goes well, he would like to hold a second meeting with Putin and Zelensky almost immediately.

North Korea is preparing to deploy a massive military contingent to Russia — Ukraine’s spy chief Budanov
The force will include around 6,000 soldiers and up to 100 pieces of military hardware.

Cohen Circle shareholders approved a $2.2B SPAC merger with Ukraine’s Kyivstar. (www.kyivpost.com/post/58046) The deal clears the way for Kyivstar to become the first Ukrainian company to list on Nasdaq under ticker “KYIV.”

Around Putin’s Valdai residence, air defenses have expanded from 2 to 12 positions, (www.kyivpost.com/post/58064) with Pantsir-S1 systems mounted on special towers a la WW II.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Trump, Zelensky, and Putin could meet at the end of next week, CBS reports, citing two sources.
The U.S. is already working on determining the location for the meeting.

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, and Crimea are enshrined in Russia’s so-called constitution, and negotiations in Alaska will be conducted from this position

🇳🇴 Russian hackers are suspected of attacking a dam in Norway.
During the incident on April 7, the hackers gained access to the digital system that remotely controls one of the dam’s valves at the outlet of Lake Risvatnet. They opened it to increase the water flow. The valve remained open for about four hours, but the surrounding area was never in danger.
In June, law enforcement discovered a three-minute video posted on Telegram on the day of the attack. It showed the dam’s control panel and a marker identifying a pro-Russian cybercriminal group.

🇬🇪 Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has once again used footage of destruction in Ukraine for political advertising.
The video was released as part of campaigning ahead of the October 4 local elections.
In the clip, captioned “Peace in Georgia — more good for Tbilisi”, scenes of Tbilisi are shown alongside footage of destruction in Ukraine caused by Russian aggression. Images of war damage in Ukraine are contrasted with Georgian parks and roads.
The Ukrainian footage is accompanied by the slogan “Say no to war!”, while the Georgian scenes carry the message “Choose peace!”.
▪️This is the second time Georgian Dream has done this. Last year, ahead of parliamentary elections, the party released a similar campaign video. A court later fined three TV channels for refusing to broadcast the ad.
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/33574

Russia Likely Preparing to Test New Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile ‘Burevestnik’
Reuters, citing two U.S. researchers, a Western security source, and Norwegian military officials, reports that Russia is likely preparing to test its new Burevestnik cruise missile, equipped with a nuclear warhead and nuclear propulsion system. The assessment is based on satellite imagery analysis.
The images show increased activity at the Pankovo test site on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Barents Sea, including more personnel and equipment. The presence of ships and aircraft previously involved in missile tests is also seen as an indicator of likely preparations.
The missile. President Vladimir Putin has called the Burevestnik “invulnerable” to current and future missile defense systems, claiming it can fly almost unlimited distances and alter its flight path, making interception difficult.
However, many experts doubt it can truly evade missile defenses. They also stress that the weapon would not give Moscow any fundamentally new capabilities compared to its existing nuclear arsenal — and could be dangerous to Russia itself, as it may emit radiation during flight.
The Burevestnik’s testing history has been troubled: of 13 known launches, only two were partially successful, raising questions about the missile’s reliability.

“Don’t Sell Ukraine!” Silent Protest Held Outside U.S. Embassy in Prague

^🇳🇴 Russian hackers are suspected of attacking a dam in Norway.
During the incident on April 7, the hackers gained access to the digital system that remotely controls one of the dam’s valves at the outlet of Lake Risvatnet. They opened it to increase the water flow^

if / when war comes, they're going to be doing this a lot aren't they? and other utilities.

I'm kind of in two minds about some of the hacking scare stories (we've had some stuff and nonsense claims made over the years with regard to civil aviation).

Yes it might be possible to spend years/months taking control of one small element of a system, it's a different matter taking control of the entire system and running it remotely...you might have more luck simply trying for a straight denial of service (DNS) but a lot of critical systems have (or should have) work rounds for that.

https://x.com/AnnaOdesitka/status/1955811301424255434 what if Trump gives occupied territories to Putin

@minsmum Thanks for that! Following her now. 😂

Timothy Snyder's thoughts on tomorrow's meeting:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/ultima-thule

@notimagain That's good.
Trump meets his Nemesis at Ultima Thule and the world looks on with bated breath.

I love this!

Sorry catching up here

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.
• Russian milbloggers, who often overinflate Russian advances, questioned Russia's ability to exploit the tactical penetration.
• The Russian tactical penetration in the Dobropillya direction was not immediate but came rather after months of Russian preparation and condition setting using new drone innovations and tactics at scale.
• Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction are also only the most recent result of over 17 months’ worth of protracted campaigning.
• Russian officials are attempting to exploit the tactical penetration near Dobropillya to influence the upcoming US-Russia summit in Alaska, but the Kremlin's overall strategic objective is to break the will of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe to achieve Russia's longstanding demand for full Ukrainian capitulation.
• Ukrainian intelligence indicated that North Korea recently deployed 11,000 soldiers to Russia to facilitate Russia's war effort in Ukraine, further demonstrating Russia's commitment to leaning on its anti-Western partners to protract the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Borova, and Pokrovsk.

More on Dobropillya

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian officials reiterated that Russia's objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged ahead of the Alaska summit on August 15, once again demonstrating that the Kremlin remains uninterested in pursuing serious peace negotiations.
• The Trump administration clarified that the United States will not pursue any agreements with Russia regarding a peace settlement in Ukraine without an immediate ceasefire and without Ukraine's formal involvement in peace negotiations.
• Trump reiterated US interest in facilitating future Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations and warned that Russia would face "very severe consequences" if Putin fails to engage in serious peace talks with Ukraine after the Alaska summit.
• The Kremlin is using the Alaska summit to portray Russia as a world power equal to the United States and to posture Putin as an equal to US President Donald Trump.
• Russia is reportedly preparing to conduct further offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline and to resume limited offensives in southern Ukraine, particularly in Kherson Oblast.
• Russia is simultaneously preparing to continue its long-range drone strike campaign against Ukrainian rear areas, which will likely result in further civilian casualties.
• Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Russian and Ukrainian sources continued on August 13 to characterize the Russian penetration as consisting of limited, dismounted sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
• ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated. ISW's Assessed Russian Advances map layer does not differentiate between enduring Russian positions and limited infiltration missions.
• Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue attempts to infiltrate Pokrovsk as Russian forces heavily strike the town.
• The Kremlin is likely using the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises to facilitate its nuclear saber-rattling campaign ahead of the Alaska summit.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Lyman and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.