Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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Can Ukraine still win and reclaim its 1991 borders? Ex-Navy SEAL Chuck Pfarrer says yes — with the right weapons and support. Here's what Ukraine needs to secure victory.

This caption is wildly misleading. What Pfarrer actually says is that Russia can't win (as in capturing the whole of Ukraine) with its current forces, and that if Ukraine had gotten maximum support from the beginning of the war, they might be in a position to retake whatever Russia had managed to occupy.

He goes on to say that if Trump gets frustrated with Russian intransigence and maximalist demands, Trump might do a 180 and start giving Ukraine everything it wants. That would be lovely, but I don't think it fits with Trumps goal of washing his hands of things as quickly as possible and moving on to other issues. Trump has only two sticks to beat Russia with - more sanctions and more meaningful military support for Ukraine. He doesn't seem inclined to use either, even though he recently threatened to impose more sanctions.

The lack of manpower alone would make it almost impossible for the Ukrainians to retake all of their territory, regardless of how much kit they are given.

The problem is (I'm sorry if I'm vastly oversimplifying) that Putin and his ilk see armed deterrence as aggression and provocation and lack of it as weakness and therefore an opportunity to demonstrate his superior power.
So either way it becomes a 'reason' to attack.

Yeah I'm in Finland. In my opinion the mood here isn't definitely coming but it's a lot closer than it has been for a very long time, and that there's no going back to the old relationship with Russia.
I visited the museum of Finnish-Russian relations recently. It used to be the Lenin museum but after the invasion they changed it. It showed the history of the relationship, all the bad but also the attempts at friendship and cooperation (especially with young people) and now that looks like ancient history. My mum's friend was with us and commented sadly about how they used to be friends. And now they are the enemy again.

He's volatile though so might lose his temper and send them everything in a fit of pique 🤞🏻

Up to a point. But Russia's hybrid attacks - arson, murders, interference with satellites and attacks on internet cables and pinprick attacks on planes, the gigantic SM campaign- are going to continue. At some point the West may have to respond and things will escalate.

Russia under Putin wants war, so it seems.

Thanks @Natsku . Sad times. I like the idea of the museum, and that it holds evidence of friendship and good intentions.
I'm always extremely impressed when we get reports of ordinary Russian people sticking their heads above the parapet and standing against the state, often the smallest gestures are the most moving.

The suspected deletion of some of the information on the US database on kidnapped Ukrainian children reported by Reuters is highly sinister.

Indeed.

Mr Transactional yet again fails to transact.

I too have noticed some commentators now cutting straight through this and saying outright that Trump has given away the store and got next to nothing in return.

But you can bet we'll continue to hear people trot out "Trump's transactional!" to explain all his actions.

I go back to a previous post of mine: any Republican or any pundit at all who claims Trump is transactional, needs to explain what the other side of this transaction was.

Because here on the table we see nothing.

Suppose he's pretending to offer peace.

That is very sinister. Those poor children lose even more chance of getting home.

But in return for what?

This is the thing. We get told that Trump always makes transactions.* So what has Trump got out of this transaction with Putin?

Either Putin has given him something which is not visible to the rest of us. Or the narrative that Trump is transactional isn't true.

Maybe the only thing Putin has given Trump is emotional validation. (I'm not saying we can rule out there being more concrete covert gifts, but let's run with the only visible thing, viz the emotional cookies.)

Trump being that easily manipulated would make him vulnerable to anyone to play.

If it's the case that emotional cookies count as one side of the transaction in Trumpworld, then we need to stop being taken in by the demands of his administration to offer concrete stuff. We too can just offer him personal emotional cookies.

NB I think the British government has caught onto this, hence the publicly delivered invitation letter signed by the King.

(*We know Trump doesn't care about breaking promises or being caught lying; and we know his worldview is "l'etat, c'est moi", so no one can credibly suggest it's for some unseen greater good for America or even Ukraine.)

We get told that Trump always makes transactions. So what has Trump got out of this transaction with Putin?*

Amongst other things I’d put money on him thinking it means he will be entitled to a Nobel.

I gather that Trump has expressed surprise that foreign policy is hard; I think the words "who knew?" were employed. The answer is probably "everyone except the orange moron knew that".

He really is not the brightest.

Yes I think he wants the Nobel. He just wants to be worshipped.
If they give it to him I think the Nobel committee will be eternally discredited. It'll be the end of them and any future Nobels of any discipline will be tainted.
Let's hope they are not that stoopid.

Putin's not going to give back Donesk and the other regions without a struggle after all the lives and money he has spent to get them. He will have to be forced. Which means keeping the sanctions in place and the pressure up until Russia withdraws because the alternative is falling apart.

TBF, I think it's got to the point where war is the main economic driver over there, with the banks giving out cheap loans to military contractors. God knows how much is bring embezzled. But you can't keep going without people and they are suffering severe labour shortages.

Zelensky talks about the partial ceasefire in the future tense, meaning that he doesn’t acknowledge it to be in effect yet. There are apparently “technical issues” to overcome first. (Unclear if this is on the Ukrainian side or relates to Russian compliance.) https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1902412196304531701

https://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3lkqq52iyts26

https://x.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1902418549462778077 So they’ve moved “beyond” wanting to rape Ukraine of her natural resources and into owning the infrastructure. How predictable.

@PerkingFaintly I think he wants to be able to claim to be the one to bring peace to Ukraine. To be the one that managed something that Biden didn't.

What's lying under the surface is irrelevant. He's after being able to make the claim.

I think he wants the Nobel too and honestly, if it'd give Ukraine a better chance, it's probably worth it. Just feeding his ego is a dangerous game on its own, but right now worth it.

His claim to have started no wars might be a tad iffy now that he's effectively declared one on the Houthis.

Trump can truthfully claim not to have started anything with the Houthis.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-houthi-attacks

He's also given the green light for Israel to start bombing Gaza again which has caused a huge loss of civilian life. He's about as good at peace making as Putin is.

Yep, not sure that threatening to annex Canada, Greenland etc is quite the Nobel ticket.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine brings home (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-returns-175-ukrainian-service-members-from-russian-captivity/) 175 prisoners of war in swap with Russia.

⚡️Zelensky confirms new arrival (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-confirms-new-arrival-of-f-16-jets-in-ukraine/) of Western F-16 jets to Ukraine.

⚡️Trump, Zelensky hold hour-long phone call (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holding-call-with-trump-white-house-official-says/), discuss aligning Russia and Ukraine's 'requests and needs,' US president says.

⚡️Zelensky confirms Ukraine agrees (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-agrees-to-halt-strikes-on-russian-energy-infrastructure-during-call-with-trump-bloomberg-reports/) to stop strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

⚡️US, Ukrainian delegations to meet (kyivindependent.com/us-ukraine-delegations-to-meet-in-saudi-arabia-for-new-talks-zelensky-says/) in Saudi Arabia in 'coming days,' Zelensky says.

⚡️US has 'moved beyond minerals deal (kyivindependent.com/us-has-moved-beyond-just-economic-minerals-deal-white-house-says/)' to focus on lasting ceasefire in Ukraine, White House says.
Washington is now focused on achieving a lasting ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on March 19 when asked about the current status of the potential minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.

⚡️'Massive' drone attack (https://kyivindependent.com/massive-drone-attack-on-kirovohrad-oblast-injures-8-including-a-child/) on Kirovohrad Oblast injures 8, including a child.
Russia launched its "largest attack in recent years" on Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast overnight on March 20, injuring eight people, including a child, regional Governor Andriy Raykovych said.

⚡️ Russian airfield in Saratov Oblast reportedly on fire (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-saratov-engels-reportedly-hit-by-massive-drone-attack/) after heaviest drone attack on region.
The Russian cities of Saratov and Engels were targeted in the heaviest drone attack against Saratov Oblast throughout the entire full-scale war overnight on March 20, Governor Roman Busargin claimed, reporting a fire at a local airfield.

Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant in focus of Ukraine peace talks. What's at stake? (kyivindependent.com/russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-in-focus-of-ukraine-peace-talks-whats-at-stake/)
The control of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest one in Europe, has been actively discussed between Kyiv and Washington over the past week.

⚡️ Zelensky says he and Trump discussed US help in restoring Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-trump-discuss-us-help-in-restoring-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/)

⚡️EU plans to supply (kyivindependent.com/eu-plans-to-supply-at-least-2-million-shells-annually-to-ukraine/) at least 2 million shells annually to Ukraine EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced on March 19.

⚡️US ownership of Ukraine's power plants would be 'best protection (kyivindependent.com/u-s-ownership-of-ukraines-nuclear-electric-power-plants-to-be-best-protection-white-house-says/),' of energy infrastructure, White House says.
President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky held a phone call on March 19, during which Trump suggested American ownership of Ukraine's power plants could help ensure their security. [can this vile Trump get any worse? truly repulsive]

⚡️Trump agrees to help Ukraine find available Patriot air defense systems (kyivindependent.com/trump-agrees-to-help-find-patriot-air-defenses-for-ukraine-available-in-europe-white-house-says/) in Europe, White House says.

⚡️ Ukraine to compile list (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-create-list-of-energy-infrastructure-civilian-sites-russia-must-cease-attacking-zelensky-says/) of energy sites Russia must stop attacking, Zelensky says.
"And if the Russians don't hit our facilities, we won't hit their facilities," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️ German government backs additional $3.3 billion (kyivindependent.com/germany-agrees-on-additional-3-3-billion-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/) in military aid for Ukraine.

⚡️US State Department did not delete (kyivindependent.com/us-state-department-did-not-delete-investigation-data-of-russian-abducted-children-spokesperson-says/) investigation data on abducted Ukrainian children, spokesperson says.
The U.S. did not delete data collected on Ukrainian children abducted by Russia amid the full-scale war, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said on March 19. [difficult to know what the truth is, but thank God if not]

⚡️ Ukraine ceasefire (kyivindependent.com/ceasefire-in-ukraine-could-be-reached-in-a-couple-of-weeks-witkoff-says/) could be reached 'in a couple of weeks,' Witkoff says.

⚡️Finland to lead (kyivindependent.com/finland-to-lead-international-bomb-shelter-coalition-for-ukraine/) international bomb shelter coalition for Ukraine.

⚡️ Trump Jr., Witkoff, Carlson involved in secret talks with Zelensky's rivals, Politico reports. (kyivindependent.com/trump-jr-witkoff-tucker-carlson-involved-in-backchannel-talks-with-zelenskys-rivals-politico-reports/)
U.S. President Donald Trump's son, Donald Jr., news host Tucker Carlson, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff were involved in backchannel talks with Zelensky's political rivals, Politico reported on March 18, citing undisclosed sources.

⚡️Leading Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar acquires (kyivindependent.com/leading-ukrainian-mobile-operator-kyivstar-acquires-ride-hailing-service-uklon-for-155-million/) ride-hailing service Uklon for $155 million.

⚡️ US court blocks cuts (kyivindependent.com/us-court-blocks-cuts-to-usaid-ruling-musks-doge-likely-violated-the-constitution/) to USAID, says Musk's DOGE likely violated Constitution.
The court order requires the Trump administration to restore email and computer access to all USAID employees, including those on administrative leave.

Ukraine Business Roundup — McDonald's and DOGE in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-mcdonalds-and-doge-in-ukraine/)

⚡️ Update: 10 injured (kyivindependent.com/massive-drone-attack-on-kirovohrad-oblast-injures-8-including-a-child/), including 4 children, in Russian attack on Kropyvnytskyi.

⚡️ 5 killed, 26 injured (kyivindependent.com/5-killed-26-injured-in-russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) in Russian attacks against Ukraine over past day.
Ukraine's Air Force reportedly intercepted 75 of the 171 Russian drones launched overnight, including Shahed-type attack drones.
Another 63 drones disappeared from radars before reaching their targets, likely acting as decoys to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - MAR 20, 2025
■ Engagements & casualties above the 7-day average
■ Equipment losses above average as well; including 3 air defence systems
■ 🇷🇺 strikes stay below average while 🇺🇦 ones are well above it

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire.
• Official American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements indicate that the parties to the ceasefire have not yet finalized the details of the agreement.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is adding confusion about the timing and details of the ceasefire in an attempt to falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire before both countries have officially implemented the agreement.
• The Kremlin continues to contradict Trump's report of his call with Putin on March 18.
• The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to set conditions to make further territorial demands.
• The United States, Ukraine, and Europe continue to agree that Ukraine and Europe must be involved in peace negotiations to end the war, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to exclude Ukraine and Europe from such negotiations.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on March 19.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, described recent Russian deception tactics that may amount to acts of perfidy — a war crime under the Geneva Convention.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian government should give military awards and social benefits to military instructors and Russian defense industrial base (DIB) employees.