Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Bloomberg, citing US officials, reports that Europe will take part in peace talks on Ukraine. European involvement is significant, particularly regarding sanctions against Russia and discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine.

State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce confirmed that the next round of talks on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine will be held at a technical level without senior US officials. These discussions will involve senior staff focusing on technical issues.

White House spokeswoman Leavitt stated that the US would continue sharing intelligence with Ukraine for defense purposes, despite Putin’s demand to halt it.
At the same time, it became known that Putin rejected a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, which Ukraine had previously agreed to.

Ukraine has received 1 billion euros from the European Union under the ERA initiative.
This is the second tranche from the EU, funded by revenues from frozen Russian assets. The funds will be allocated to priority state budget expenditures.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that discussions [with trump] included Ukraine’s participation in the ReArm Europe initiative, financing for ammunition purchases, and steps to accelerate EU integration. He expressed hope for support in unblocking negotiation clusters.

175 Ukrainian defenders have been released from Russian captivity, and another 22 are returning home through measures outside of exchanges, President Zelenskyy announced.
175 Ukrainian defenders have been released from Russian captivity, and another 22 are returning home through measures outside of exchanges, President Zelenskyy announced.

During his visit to Finland, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed key issues of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with President Alexander Stubb, with a particular focus on defense support and investments in Ukrainian industry.

North Korea has become the world's third-largest Bitcoin holder following a massive $1.46 billion cryptocurrency theft, The Times reports.
On February 21, hackers from the Lazarus Group stole approximately 401,000 Ethereum units from the Bybit cryptocurrency exchange. Shortly after, they converted most of the stolen funds into Bitcoin, raising North Korea's total reserves to 13,562 BTC, worth around $1.14 billion.
According to the UN, Lazarus' stolen funds serve as a "lifeline" for Kim Jong-un, financing up to 40% of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs through illicit cyber activities.
The United States holds the largest Bitcoin reserves, valued at $16.71 billion, followed by the UK with $5.17 billion.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that extending NATO’s Article 5 to Ukraine would be the simplest and most effective proposal, as it could reveal whether Putin is bluffing about further aggression.
“If Russia does not plan to invade its neighbors again, it is unclear why it should not accept security guarantees,” she said, as quoted by Askanews.

Oh dear. There was mention of the online currency.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal have rejected EU Commission Vice President Kallas’ proposal to provide Ukraine with €40 billion in weapons, — La Stampa
The proposed amount could be reduced to €5 billion.

Ukraine’s Intelligence struck multiple targets in Russian-occupied Crimea over the past few days including air defense systems, the tugboat “Fedor Uryupin,” and a Mi-8 helicopter.
www.kyivpost.com/post/49212

President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Norway — Reuters
Citing the Norwegian government, the outlet reports that the Ukrainian president arrived in Norway on Thursday, March 20, for an official visit after his trip to Finland.

Macron unexpectedly called Zelensky while he was speaking with journalists.
When asked to confirm if it was the French president, Zelensky replied: “Yes, I just spoke with President Macron. We talk very often — about once a day, on average.”

I'm finding Meloni's stance very interesting, given her politics. She seems to be on the ball re Putin.
Thank goodness.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

“Our red line is the recognition of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories as Russian,” – Volodymyr Zelensky

🇨🇭 Switzerland doubles support for Ukraine’s reconstruction to 100 million francs
The funds will be allocated to Swiss companies with a legal presence in Ukraine that will participate in reconstruction efforts, selected through a competitive process.
This financing is part of Switzerland’s 2025–2028 initiative to support Ukraine, with a total budget of 1.5 billion Swiss francs.

🇨🇦🇪🇺 Canada is in advanced talks with the European Union to join the bloc’s new project to expand its military industry, a move that would allow Canada to be part of building European fighter jets and other military equipment at its own industrial facilities, - NYT

❗️Zelensky asked Trump for additional Patriot air defense systems, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt confirms
According to Leavitt, Trump “agreed to work with him to find available systems, including in Europe.”
She also shared other key points from the conversation between the two leaders:
🔴Trump suggested that if the U.S. controlled Ukraine’s power plants and nuclear facilities, it could be the best way to protect them.
🔴The U.S. president pledged to “work closely with both sides” to secure the return of children abducted during the war.

Zelensky and Trump discuss how the U.S. could help restore the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant [more info]
The Ukrainian president emphasized that de-occupying the plant alone is not enough—it requires proper infrastructure to resume operations.
Zelensky said Trump inquired whether the Ukrainian government would accept U.S. involvement in restoring the plant.
“I responded that yes, if there is an opportunity for modernization and investment, we are ready to discuss it with you. But we spoke exclusively about the one plant that is currently under Russia’s temporary occupation,” Zelensky explained.
At this stage, there are no negotiations regarding the transfer of ZNPP back under Ukraine’s control. Zelensky reiterated that the plant will not operate under occupation, nor in a scenario where Russian forces remain nearby and could destroy it at any moment.

📚 Kharkiv restores “Factor-Druk” printing house, destroyed by Russian attack last year
Ukraine’s Minister of Economy, Yuliia Svyrydenko, shared photos of the newly rebuilt facility. The restoration was made possible with the support of American philanthropist Howard Buffett.
▪️On May 23, 2024, the Russian army destroyed the bookbinding workshop of Factor-Druk. At the time, 50 employees were inside—seven were killed, and 22 were injured.

Ukrainian POW calling his mother after exchange…
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/29871

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z1w1y2neo

The UK is hosting a closed meeting on Thursday of senior military leaders from the "coalition of the willing", as they draw up plans for a proposed peacekeeping force for Ukraine.

More than 20 countries are thought to be involved.

I think she’s a good example of where 2 totally opposing sides can and should work together. I don’t agree with her politics on much but she’s a serious politician unlike some of the more ahem orange hue.

Spot on Jelly. She's proving to be a valuable ally. Refreshing to see that she's not buddying up with the likes of Orban.

What I don't understand about this is why they feel they need to have USAF air cover for the peacekeeping force. Surely this can be provided by the air forces of the respective countries committing ground forces.

Perhaps @notimagain can provide some insight.

The other issue with this is I don't think that Trump is going to agree to it.

No idea what the ….thinking is with air cover, as you say can’t see POTUS agreeing to it in the current climate.

I’ve getting nasty vibes about this whole “collation of the willing” concept, certainly the way it’s being pushed in the UK media and at times by the UK PM. (remind me again how many troops can the Uk deploy) ..It sounds like the sort buzz phrase that’s become common in certainly UK politics…

All it seems to be ATM is an (online) talking shop..be nice to see some concrete agreements.

(remind me again how many troops can the Uk deploy)

Five to ten thousand would be my guess. The BA is also down to 30 operational MBTs, with another 90 in the shop for repairs or upgrades.

I think the Russian's hostility to NATO troops in Ukraine is real. They think that "NATO" has been kicking their ass for the last three years in Ukraine, because it couldn't possibly be the country cousins from Kyiv having done it alone.

In ground combat, there's a minimum force size you need to defend yourself in a specific location. There's also a 600 mile contact line that would need to be defended, so lots of specific locations that need defending. And the force would have to defend everywhere, while the Russians could choose where they want to concentrate forces and attack. I can't see doing it with less than 75-100k troops. And that's just my wild ass guess. The staff planning document for such a mission would easily run 200 plus pages.

I think the fact that these troops would be defending a non-NATO country would lead Putin to think he could attack those troops without triggering Article 5. NATO (or the "coalition of the willing") should either go in with a large enough force to deter Putin from doing so or focus on arming the Ukrainians to the teeth and letting them do it.

The WSJ has just published coverage of this issue.

Europe Hatches Plans for Ukraine Peacekeepers Without U.S. - Defense chiefs from the ‘coalition of the willing’ discuss how best to put boots on the ground in Ukraine if there is peace

The whole thing is worth reading, but this addresses the US role question:

Crucially, the “coalition of the willing” also wants a commitment from the U.S. that it will intervene if Russia breaks the terms of the peace. The specific ask that Europe will make for an American insurance policy is still being fleshed out, officials say. However, it would likely include asking at the very least for logistical support, air-defense capabilities and intelligence gathering to help monitor Russian forces, according to European officials.

It would also require clearly stated U.S. political backing for the European deployment, said Camille Grand, a former senior NATO official now at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

And the ISS has looked at the force requirements (quoted from the WSJ article). My back of the envelop estimate was pretty close.

A recent paper by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said a force of 5,000 troops on the ground, a brigade, backed up by a small air component and limited naval elements in the Black Sea would only be able to counter a single local Russian threat or small-scale air or maritime incursion. A force of up to 30,000 troops, backed by long-range artillery, military helicopters, drones and combat engineers with broader air and maritime support, would be able to handle more than one Russian incursion and be “capable of high intensity conflict.”

It would take a deployment of 60,000 to 100,000 troops, IISS said—a force level almost certainly impossible for Europe—to execute sustained high-intensity land combat.

What do we make of Trumps offer of ‘security’ via him taking over the ZPP power plant?

Apparently the financial gain of such an agreement would render faster financial gains than the previous minerals deal.

I think it’s a load of absolute bullshit much like the rest of what comes out of his mouth. Zelenskyy made clear today that the power plants belong to Ukraine.

@Igotjelly

In that case, I really hope he’s not steamrolled into accepting

Seems the rare earth deal is back on. I can barely keep up.

One tiny bit of not-dark-news is that the reputed deletion of the US database on the stolen children apparently didn't happen. So the info is still there. Not heard if anyone is allowed access to it or not.

Something a bit different

Keep on rockin’ in the free world

Neil Young is to play a free concert in Ukraine. The impact could be huge

https://sussexbylines.co.uk/community/keep-on-rockin-in-the-free-world/

Odessa is being heavily bombed tonight apparently, the photos look horrific. Fkin ceasefire my arse 😭

The fucking Trump loving American fuckwit on question time was fucking smirking when people talked about Ukraine being bombed. Apparently Putin is sticking to his ceasefire agreement and Trump is amazing for making this happen. Apparently America is broke because they are paying for French health care and holidays! No fucker fact checked him.
Ukraine needs support now.

Just read through the Heathrow airport shut thread (it’s trending), it caught my eye because

• I live right under the LHR flight path and thought it was unusually quiet this morning, usually we hear the aircraft roaring from 4 ish am especially on descent
• i was due to meet an old American friend who I hadn’t seen for 17 years. We met in Donetsk and I was her interpreter for a few years (she was a missionary) … the friend texted at 2 am to say they are going nowhere, nightmare.

So back to the Heathrow airport thread, I am surprised by a number of posters pointing their finger at Russia as the potential instigators of the fire at Haynes substation. It was my first thought too but I’m used to their “provocations” but years ago I would have considered this to be a conspiracy theory too.

It was my immediate thought, I’ll be pleased if they aren’t involved. Reading that thread it seems there are still a good number of people who will shout conspiracy theory rather than engage with the uncomfortable fact that we can never immediately rule out sabotage.

I feel the same. I’ll be pleased and maybe a little surprised if they are not involved because if they turn out to be, this will escalate things massively. Not what anyone needs right now.

I’m afraid there is a major problem now that the general population simply don’t believe that accidents/incidents can happen because automation/computers/AI /the security services etc etc.

Every bloody aircraft accident for the last year, and at least one shipping one has been “the Russians” whereas the reality has been oft as not been a good old fashioned stuff up.

Yeah we need to remember that accidents still happen, which is my first bet for this. Sabotage is my second thought but I think this kind of blatant sabotage is a bit of a step too far for Russia at this point.