Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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The Economist has a good analysis of the upcoming negotiations in Saudi. The link should bypass the paywall.

America and Ukraine prepare for brutal negotiations - To get a deal in Jeddah Ukraine must first make peace with Donald Trump

I'm not optimistic about them. I don't think Russia will agree to a foreign peacekeeping force in Ukraine, in which case the Ukrainians have no incentive to give up anything. Trump has massive leverage over Ukraine, and very little over the Russians. That said, I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised.

I seem to have been right about my guess as to what Musk thought he was saying. There's a first...

Apologies for the DM link but why am I not surprised he decided to try and pin it on Ukraine. I don’t believe for a second it was done by the state. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14483513/elon-musk-reveals-ukraine-massive-cyberattack-X.html

He’s going to use it as an excuse to pull Starlink isn’t he?

Pinning it on Ukraine, and Ukraine I don't believe is stupid enough to do this, particularly with the ceasefire negotiations in place, screams that he did it himself. Taking a leaf out of Putins playback.

Absolutely. The whole thing stinks.

I absolutely agree. He’s an absolute weasel (though that feels a bit unfair on the poor animals!)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered.
• Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration's statements and actions in an attempt to divide the United States and Europe.
• Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and likely preparing to attack Sudzha in the coming days.
• Ukraine continues to expand its domestic production of drones and air defense systems to support its war effort.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a list on March 10 of instructions for the Russian government and the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation aimed at increasing social benefits to Russian veterans, which will likely put further strain on the Russian budget and economy.

It feels like we're living in a parallel universe with arseholes like Musk, Vance and Trump calling the shots. The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum. I really hope this isn't the start of Musk withdrawing Starlink. Ukraine have always been fighting with one hand tied behind their back the Whitehouse, in its new incarnation, seems determined to tie both hands

I'm baffled that some people are still suggesting Trump is some sort of Machiavellian genius moving in mysterious ways that we mere mortals can't begin to comprehend, when he clearly can't remember what lies he's spouted from day to day and is so badly briefed he doesn't know what AUKUS is!

Thank you for your kindcwords @Branster, very much appreciated. I'm only on Monday round up duty though, Ducks and Blueshoes do the heavy lifting!

I know a number of posters get annoyed with my comments but time is running out and I am just incredibly frustrated and angry with European politicians (I would exclude the UK and France from this) making great speeches about standing by Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression but delivering very little in actual military support

I think that's a bit unfair, several European countries have given greatly in terms of military aid, its just that the economies are smaller so cannot afford to give as much as the UK, France or Germany, but if you look at in terms of percentage of GDP, then the Baltics and the Nordics have been far more generous with military aid than the UK or France.

And the NL has given a lot in terms of value and training. The NL does not forget Flight MH17.

Its not Partially True, its 100% true.

Europe cannot, over night, magic up the munitions and systems needed to defend Ukraine, nor do they have the intel capability.

Trump has taken these away from the Ukrainians, no one else. He is the one who will drive Ukraine into a poor "peace" deal, which Russia will not keep too....

Why would they? they've an ally in the Whitehouse, who'll praise Putin when, not if, he attacks Ukraine again... assuming there even is a peace deal.

The future for Ukraine is very bleak.

I absolutely hate to acknowledge it but yes, the future does look very bleak.

@Alexandra2001

"It's not Partially True, it's 100% true.

Europe cannot, over night, magic up the munitions and systems needed to defend Ukraine, nor do they have the intel capability."

Except it was not overnight - Trump was threatening to pull military aid from Ukraine 18 months ago and the US has been asking Europe to increase its military spending for over 60 years. As for the intel capability there is a good reason why Europe doesn't have the same capabilities and that's because it's expensive and far cheaper to be reliant on the US - who's to blame here - Europe or the US.

Europe is as much to blame here as the US, except that they wrap their lack of actual military support in lovely speeches about standing by Ukraine, without actually doing anything.

Only Trump spouts so much guff that it’s difficult to know what his intent is. Europe should have acted faster, but let’s face it, the US President should stop behaving like a Russian asset. I never thought he’d support Ukraine in the way that Biden did, but I’d didn’t expect him to giftwrap Ukraine to Putin either.

@1dayatatime

Europe is as much to blame here as the US, except that they wrap their lack of actual military support in lovely speeches about standing by Ukraine, without actually doing anything.

You make a valid point about the history but that last comment is grossly unfair and incorrect…

Europe/Uk has donated a tremendous amount of equipment over the last three years…starting with the likes of NLAW that helped hold the line around Kyiv in the early days through artillery such as Caesar and more recently F-16 (directly from European paid for stock, though it needed US approval) carrying at times European/UK made, European provided stand off weapons such as Storm Shadow….and as for the int that supports that sort of weaponry, certainly UK ISTAR assets have at time been in the area.

There was even a piece on our local news last night about how well some local weapons manufacturers (makers of drones and artillery shells) have done providing material for Ukraine funded by the EU and French state.

You are right that Europe ATM can’t rapidly provide support to the same level as the US has, but completely wrong to claim Europe hasn’t done anything.

And wear a suit

https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3lk3mihpinc22

President Macron will make a speech this afternoon to 30 military chiefs from Europe – but also Canada, Australia & Turkey – gathering in Paris to consider options for the proposed security or “reassurance” force which could be deployed in Ukraine after a ceasefire with Russia 1/

According to French media, the meeting is taking place in the margins of a long-planned Paris Defence and Strategy Forum. Macron is is expected to speak at around 5.30pm Paris time. 2/

Almost all European Nato countries are expected to attend, plus Canada & Australia but not the US. Britain will be represented by Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff. Starmer is expected to hold a video summit for “willing” countries on Saturday (15 March) 3/

The meeting is intended to explore the nature and limits of a “reassurance” force of around 30,000 troops proposed by France and Britain to secure any ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has rejected the idea 4/

cont.

Respectfully, i have to disagree.

Regardless of whether Europe upped its spend or not, an ally doesn't just pull the plug like Trump has done.... there is no reason to have stopped aid and intel to Ukraine, non whatsoever.... that is a separate question to NATO spend.

Trump did this after many European nations, inc the UK increased military spending, Germany has rapidly upped its spending too over the last 2 years.

Russian advances in Ukraine will have huge impacts across Europe, even if he stops at Ukraine, millions of people will move west, we will have to absorb them.

Atm the USA is no friend of Ukraine or Europe, Trump, hopefully, will be gone in 4 years, but the damage he will cause to transatlantic relations and Europes security, will last decades.

Peskov on the overnight drone attacks - "Kyiv is hitting residential buildings, and the Russian Federation is hitting military targets"

How fucking dare he!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine, US begin key meeting (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-begin-crucial-meeting-in-saudi-arabia/) in Saudi Arabia.

⚡️Ukraine to propose (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-propose-ceasefire-at-sea-in-sky-during-talks-with-us-in-saudi-arabia-media-reports/) ceasefire at sea, in sky during talks with US this week, media outlet reports.

⚡️Over 30 nations (kyivindependent.com/over-30-nations-will-partake-in-paris-talks-on-ukraine-security/) to join Paris talks on Ukraine security.

⚡️Witkoff to meet Putin (kyivindependent.com/witkoff-to-meet-putin-in-moscow-sources-claim/) in Moscow, media reports.

⚡️US military aid freeze could be 'resolved (kyivindependent.com/washingtons-cutoff-of-military-aid-could-be-resolved-rubio-says-ahead-of-talks-in-saudi-arabia/)' during talks with Ukraine this week, Rubio says.

⚡️ EU prepares for possible Hungarian veto (kyivindependent.com/eu-prepares-for-possible-hungarian-veto-on-russia-sanctions-extension-media-reports/) on Russia sanctions extension, media reports.
The European Union is bracing for a potential Hungarian veto on extending sanctions against Russia, which are set to expire on March 15, Euractiv reported on March 10, citing undisclosed sources.

⚡️ Russia claims to recapture 12 Kursk Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-recapture-12-kursk-oblast-settlements-amid-new-offensive/) settlements amid new offensive.

⚡️No threat of encirclement (kyivindependent.com/there-is-currently-no-threat-of-encirclement-of-ukrainian-units-in-russias-kursk-oblast-syrskyi-says/) for Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi says.
Ukrainian units are not currently under threat of encirclement in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 10.

⚡️ Russia attempting to gain foothold (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-attempting-to-gain-foothold-in-sumy-oblast-border-guard-warns/) in Sumy Oblast, Border Guard warns.
Small Russian assault units are attempting to establish a foothold near Novenke, a Sumy Oblast village near the border with Russia's Kursk Oblast, the State Border Guard said.

⚡️74 drones shot down (kyivindependent.com/dozens-of-drones-shot-down-over-moscow-mayor-claims/) over Moscow, mayor claims.

⚡️UK to host virtual summit (kyivindependent.com/uk-to-host-virtual-summit-on-ukraine-on-march-15-as-peacekeeping-plans-advance/) on Ukraine on March 15 as peacekeeping plans advance.

⚡️Ukraine must make concessions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-must-make-concessions-in-any-peace-deal-rubio-says/) in any peace deal, Rubio says.

⚡️ US 'will not be providing' military aid (kyivindependent.com/us-will-not-be-providing-military-aid-to-russia-rubio-says/) to Russia, Rubio says.
The United States will not provide military aid to Russia, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on March 10 in a curious comment ahead of U.S.-Ukraine talks.

⚡️Washington considers (kyivindependent.com/washington-considers-easing-sanctions-over-russian-oil-bloomberg-reports/) easing sanctions on Russian oil, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️US has not discussed Russia sanctions (kyivindependent.com/us-has-not-discussed-russia-sanctions-relief-with-eu-rubio-says/) relief with EU, Rubio says.

⚡️Musk blames X outage on 'massive cyberattack' (kyivindependent.com/musk-blames-x-outage-on-massive-cyberattack-linked-to-ukraine/) linked to Ukraine.
The amount of traffic coming from Ukraine was "insignificant," an industry source told Reuters, disputing Musk's account.

⚡️ US hasn't stopped sharing defense-related intelligence with Ukraine, Trump's envoy says. (https://kyivindependent.com/us-hasnt-stopped-sharing-defense-related-intelligence-with-ukraine-trumps-envoy-says/)
The U.S. has never stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine that is needed for defensive purposes, U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News on March 10.

⚡️Zelensky, Saudi crown prince discuss return of POWs (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-saudi-crown-prince-discuss-return-of-pows-ukrainian-children/), Ukrainian children.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Jeddah ahead of a high-stakes meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

⚡️Zelensky apologized (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-apologized-for-oval-office-clash-witkoff-says/) to Trump for Oval Office clash, Witkoff claims.
President Volodymyr Zelensky apologized for the heated argument in the White House between him and U.S. President Donald Trump, U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff said in a television interview with Fox News on March 10.

⚡️ Ukrainian drones mark 22% increase (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-drones-february/) in Russian target destruction in February, Syrskyi says.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that first-person-view (FPV) drones and multi-rotor bombers remain the most effective tools.

⚡️ Ukraine to buy 4.5 million (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-buy-4-5-million-fpv-drones-in-2025/) FPV drones in 2025.

⚡️Russia's arms exports plunge by 47% (kyivindependent.com/russias-arms-exports-plunge-by-47-since-full-scale-invasion-sipri-reports/) since full-scale invasion's start, SIPRI reports.
The decline is attributed to Russia prioritizing weapons production for its own military, the impact of Western sanctions, and increased pressure from the U.S. and its allies on countries purchasing Russian arms, the report said.

⚡️ Russia's Gazprom faces almost $20 billion (kyivindependent.com/russias-gazprom-faces-19-5-billion-in-lawsuits-from-european-energy-firms-over-gas-cuts/) in lawsuits from European energy firms.
European energy firms have filed lawsuits against Russian energy giant Gazprom totaling 18 billion euros ($19.6 billion) over gas supply cuts, the Moscow Times reported on March 10

US, Ukraine charities see surge in donations (kyivindependent.com/us-ukraine-charities-see-surge-in-donations-after-trumps-attacks-but-stress-this-doesnt-fill-the-void/) after Trump’s attacks – but stress this doesn’t fill the void
Volunteer organizations on both sides of the Atlantic are seeing a slight increase in support, as Americans and Ukrainians alike, disheartened by the political setbacks, are more determined than ever to show their solidarity with Ukraine’s effort.

⚡️Musk calls Sen. Mark Kelly a 'traitor (kyivindependent.com/musk-calls-sen-mark-kelly-a-traitor-over-ukraine-trip-kelly-pushes-back/)' over Ukraine trip, Kelly pushes back.

⚡️ Russia expels (kyivindependent.com/russia-expels-2-brits-accuses-them-of-espionage/) 2 British diplomats, accuses them of espionage.

Investigation: We tried to buy American chips as a Russian defense manufacturer — and it worked (kyivindependent.com/investigation-we-tried-to-buy-american-chips-as-a-russian-defense-manufacturer-heres-why-its-possible/)
Despite bans put in place by the U.S. and Europe on the supply of electronic components to Russia, dozens of Russian microelectronics suppliers continue to obtain and resell imported chips to Russian arms manufacturers successfully.
To prove that this line of supply continues to operate three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Kyiv Independent tried ordering American microchips from Russian trading companies, posing as a Russian defense producer, proving that American and European-branded chips continue flowing to Russia.

⚡️ 87% of Ukrainians believe Russia will not stop at occupied territories, survey finds. (kyivindependent.com/87-of-ukrainians-believe-russia-will-not-stop-at-occupied-territories-survey-finds/)
Some 66% of respondents also said that Russia's ultimate goal is Ukraine's destruction — 28% believe Moscow seeks physical genocide, while 38% say it aims to seize most or all of Ukraine's territory and eliminate its statehood.

⚡️ Ukraine arrests Kharkiv resident (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-arrest-suspected-russian-agent-in-kharkiv-over-bombing-poisoning-plot/) suspected of bombing, poisoning plot on Russia's behalf.

⚡️ Lukashenko appoints Alexander Turchin (kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-appoints-new-belarus-prime-minister/) as Belarus's new PM.

⚡️ Russia moves to curb Chinese car imports (kyivindependent.com/russia-moves-to-curb-chinese-car-imports-with-higher-fees-tighter-regulations/) with higher fees, tighter regulations.
Chinese car exports to Russia surged sevenfold in 2023 compared to 2022, as Western sanctions cut Russia off from brands like Volkswagen, Toyota, and BMW.

⚡️ Russian woman seeks to adopt abducted Ukrainian child after her son was killed fighting in war, investigation says. (kyivindependent.com/russian-woman-seeks-to-adopt-abducted-ukrainian-child-as-her-son-was-killed-fighting-in-war/)
A Russian woman, Olga Dorokhina, took a 4-year-old girl from the occupied part of Kherson Oblast and plans to adopt her, according to an investigation by Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne published on March 10.

⚡️ 1 killed, 17 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/1-killed-17-injured-in-russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) against Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - MAR 11, 2025
■ Massive equipment losses continue, including 75 artillery losses
■ Most casualties in over a week & engagements stay above average
■ Worse strike ratio but stays below average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Portugal has delivered eight Aerospatiale SA330L Puma helicopters to Ukraine.

❗️In February, Russian targets were hit and destroyed 22% more than in January, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported.
He noted that FPV drones and multi-rotor bombers are the most effective in inflicting damage on the enemy.

Pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu is preparing to appeal the CEC’s refusal to re-register him as a candidate in Romania’s presidential election, Reuters reports.

Britain is working to unfreeze £2.3 billion from the sale of Chelsea FC to help Ukraine.
According to the Financial Times, Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised to take the necessary steps through the courts. The club was previously owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who was sanctioned by London in March 2022.
The funds from the sale are intended for humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The Azov brigade has used the new Ukrainian-made SETH strike UAV. The first batch was delivered by the “Come Back Alive” foundation and is already deployed in the Toretsk direction.
This UAV is easy to operate and fully automated, allowing operators to more effectively hunt enemy forces, weapons, and equipment.

As of January 31, 2025, nearly 4.3 million people who fled Ukraine due to Russia’s full-scale aggression held temporary protection status in the EU.
The largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees with this status are in Germany (over 1.17 million), Poland (993,000), and the Czech Republic (395,000).

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

US Secretary of State Rubio said that he has NO scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Trump will not resume military aid to Ukraine until Zelensky leaves the presidency — BILD

Kyiv Post exclusive: The Trump White House is moving toward accepting key Russian demands, emboldening the Kremlin as it seeks to undermine Zelensky and shape the war’s end on Moscow’s terms.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48640

The US has ruled out Ukraine returning to its 2014 or even 2022 borders — Sky News

337 drones hit Russia in its biggest attack yet overnight.
Drones targeted multiple regions, including Moscow and the surrounding areas. Mayor Sobyanin claimed that 73 drones were shot down near the capital. [what happened to the other 200-odd?]

Denmark said it is open to help enforce a Europe-backed peace deal in Ukraine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48638

Ukraine was the world’s largest importer of major weapons over the past five years.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48657

The Moscow-based operation to spread Russian narratives globally is distorting the output of chatbots by flooding large language models with pro-Kremlin falsehoods.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48608

“You called Trump ‘America’s Hitler.’ What changed?” — US Vice President JD Vance was met by hundreds of protesters near his home in Ohio.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48641

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️An oil tanker and a cargo ship collided off the coast of the United Kingdom, leaving dozens injured.
A large-scale rescue operation is underway. So far, 32 crew members have been brought to shore. Both vessels are engulfed in flames and thick black smoke.
The incident likely involved the US-registered tanker Stena Immaculate and the Portuguese-flagged container ship Solong, registered in Madeira. The cause of the collision is under investigation.

❗️The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 337 drones over ten regions, calling it the largest attack of 2025.

🇫🇮💶 Finland has allocated €16 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, which will be distributed through the UN and the Red Cross.

🇦🇺🪖Russia has warned Australia of “serious consequences” if it decides to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
“Russia has repeatedly made it clear that any foreign military presence in Ukraine is absolutely unacceptable (…) We will not remain passive observers,” the Russian Embassy in Australia stated.
▪️Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently stated that his country would consider deploying troops to Ukraine as part of an international peacekeeping mission.

❗️Russian Media: Ukraine Citizens Facing Mass Entry Bans into Russia
Russian media report that Ukrainian citizens attempting to enter Russia are being systematically denied entry.
According to Ukrainians who have been turned away, this practice appears to be widespread and systematic. Those denied entry are issued long-term bans, barring them from visiting Russia for either 20 or 50 years.
This entry ban also effectively extends to Belarus, as the country’s Interior Ministry synchronizes its databases with Russia’s FSB.

🇺🇦🪖Ukraine has become the world’s largest arms importer, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The country’s arms imports from 2020–2024 increased nearly 100 times compared to 2015–2019. Overall, European arms imports grew by 155% over the same period.
The US has expanded its share of global arms exports to 43%, while Russia’s exports have dropped by 64%, pushing it to third place behind France (9.6%). Italy (4.8%) has risen from 10th to 6th place in the rankings.
From 2020–2024, Ukraine accounted for 8.8% of global arms imports. The majority of supplies came from the US (45%), Germany (12%), and Poland (11%).

Nobel Prize Laureates in Physics Visited Ukraine in a Show of Support
Ferenc Krausz and Serge Haroche delivered lectures and participated in panel discussions held in bomb shelters at Kyiv and Kharkiv National Universities.
They also brought a petition signed by over 120 Nobel laureates, calling for the use of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine and support those affected by Russian aggression.

🇬🇧🇺🇦The UK advised Ukraine ahead of negotiations with the US to avoid conflict, reports The Times.
British Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell advised Volodymyr Zelensky to emphasize that Kyiv is responding to American requests, according to the publication. This is meant to signal to Donald Trump that Russia remains the main obstacle to peace.

Here's some good coverage of where things stand as the talks start. According to this, the US is still supplying Ukraine with "defensive intelligence", such as warning of missile launches to warn Ukrainian air defenses.

Marco Rubio Says Talks in Saudi Arabia Key to Resuming Military Support for Ukraine

As the article title suggests, they are now dangling the carrot of resuming military aid to incentivize Ukraine to make concessions.

The article correctly points out that Trump has done nothing to pressure Russia and the Russians have escalated their demands in response.