Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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@Alexandra2001

Well, yes we can say that now but remember also, France was, effectively, out of NATO for many years, it had no choice in developing its own systems.

Politically they were for a while, but operationally, mainly out of public view they weren’t really that far outside outside the NATO tent and a lot of cooperation (even on equipment) went on, even when France was technically “out”.

The main driver for the French determination to be truly independent comes the de Gaulle era and his feelings about the possible fragility of US support, certainly for France and possibly for NATO, in the event of another conflict on the European mainland …and I know mentioning him could open up another whole can of worms so I’ll leave that there.

As for current events, I’ll stick a link at the bottom of the page to a Royal Aeronautical Society piece about a proposed future fighter project.

The project is in work but it’s very long term (see the Justin Bronk comment within) and is not relevant to Ukraine but elsewhere in the paper one or two commentators (most especially Francis Tulsa in his “The Only Way is Tempest sub. Section about half way into the paper) highlight the grumbles/complaints doing the rounds about restrictions put in place by the US/US manufacturer on at least one none US F-35 operator.

www.aerosociety.com/news/the-only-way-is-tempest/

For those not inclined to through all the tech and acronyms in that paper it maybe at least worth looking at a the last two paragraphs of Bill Sweetman’s comments, partial C&P here:

”In the UK, there was a detectable sense of disenchantment about F-35, mostly within the RAF,” concerns ”include the ‘black box’ nature of the sensor-fusion system which, despite its legally important role in determining whether or not a target is legitimate under prevailing rules of engagement, the ability to record, offload and exploit sensor data and share it with other assets is restricted. The US also has tight control over mission data files (MDFs), including electronic order-of-battle data. MDFs for the UK, Italy, Japan and other F-35 operators are exclusively generated by the USAF’s 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing at Eglin AFB, Florida” [my emphasis]

Sweetman then finishes with:

”A final overarching argument for sovereignty in critical military capabilities has existed since November 2016, when the US electorate awarded the presidency to Donald Trump who has a fascination for autocrats and autocracy and utter contempt for allies and alliances. It could happen again in 2024, and radical isolationism is a more powerful force in US politics than at any time since 1940. People in government might not talk about this danger, but it would be grand misfeasance to ignore it.”

……..The paper was published Jan 2024……

This is the reality of the situation whether we like it or not.

I think that a "peace deal" of some form will be made at some point this year. What that peace deal looks like for Ukraine will depend on the strength of their negotiating position and the strength of their negotiating position will depend on the strength of their military position.

The harsh reality is that the US has walked off the job and as frustrating and angry as this is for many posters it's not going to change. The only thing that can help Ukraine as a nation and help the brave Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines is for Europe to step up and fast.

I know a number of posters get annoyed with my comments but time is running out and I am just incredibly frustrated and angry with European politicians (I would exclude the UK and France from this) making great speeches about standing by Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression but delivering very little in actual military support.

I would prefer less speeches and more 155mm ammunition.

I don't want to see a scenario at the end of the year where Ukraine gets thrown under a bus whilst everyone else just points the finger of blame at Trump. Convenient as this is, it won't do anything to help Ukraine or create a lasting peace.

Whispers or rumours that the UK’s Strategic Defence Review has been finalized…apparently it doesn’t make comfortable reading but that should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been following the subject.

The source for this X is a UK journalist/political commentator, not a defence analyst, so treat with caution at this stage:

https://x.com/peston/status/1899004327282237638?s=61

Opening comments:

“It will take ten years for Britain’s armed forces and defence capability to become match fit, to make them a “credible deterrent”, so much have they been hollowed out over the past 25 years.

That is the central devastating conclusion of the unpublished Strategic Defence Review commissioned by Sir Keir Starmer.

The better news is that it is wholly practical and possible to rehabilitate Britain’s military deterrent. But it requires much more investment and spending, coupled with an industrial policy that brings back to these shores cutting edge technology development, manufacturing capacity and jobs.”…….

@1dayatatime I 100% agree with you. Don't stop saying it. And thank you for saying it.
Europe needs to step up, properly, and stop letting Ukraine fight and suffer on behalf of everyone lucky enough to be that bit further away. It's Europe's war, and a war for democracy. That we continue to let Ukraine face the brunt of it is shameful really.

But it requires much more investment and spending, coupled with an industrial policy that brings back to these shores cutting edge technology development, manufacturing capacity and jobs.

Sigh. As if no one could ever have foreseen that cutting industry and creating a service economy wasn't going to have consequences.

I sometimes think that past leaders were unfuckingbelievably naive in thinking that war and isolation would never come again. Didn't anyone have the slightest inclination to look at history? Or did they think it was just fine to make the UK weak?

editted: I realise that's an irritable and rather condescending post. But hell's bells!

I was in the process of leaving HM Forces shortly before the wall came down, and at around the time that the cracks in the Warsaw Pact were becoming abundantly obvious.

It was very clear as an insider that Uk Gov/Treasury couldn’t wait to start downsizing and bank the savings…they didn’t give a jot about history, or retaining much just in case…

Now to some extent I can understand that thinking at that time, especially given the state of the Uk economy and other spending priorities, but it was absolutely utterly indefensible was to turn a blind eye to the ramping up in the threat under Putin….

There’s a decent précis of in the “1991-the post Cold War world” section of this:

www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31750929

@heldinadream

Thank you for your kind words.

What I really fear is that by the end of the year Ukraine has been forced into very unfavourable peace terms which (as we saw with Germany after WW1) creates a feeling of betrayal, anger, civil discontent and a desire for revenge.

And the message across Europe will be "well it's all the fault of Trump", we feel really sorry for you but it's nothing to do with us. Which firstly is only partially correct and secondly does bugger all to actually help Ukraine.

I would prefer less speeches and more 155mm ammunition.

Hear hear

Interesting. I entered the service a few years before you left. You just missed ODS.

I think what happened was that the "peace dividend" got baked into the budget baseline, and then defense was seen as the account to nick from any time anything else needed topping up. Germany was probably the worst for this. The Bundeswehr was nickel and dimed to the point where, in 2015, German army soldiers had to participate in NATO exercises carrying brooms to simulate assault rifles. And the German navy didn't have a single seaworthy submarine.

When Russia became a threat again, relying on the U.S. to deter them was the very convenient justification for not increasing defense spending. Of course, this ignored the fairness issue and the resentment it would cause in the U.S. And here we are now.

Congress passed a law the last time he was in office saying that the president can't withdraw from NATO without legislative consent, but he can still do plenty of mischief as commander in chief.

Trump Can’t Withdraw From NATO, but He Could “Quiet Quit”

I read what I could see of Musk's x not as threatening to cut off Starlink but as saying in effect "OY! stop claiming I am pro-Russian! I challenged Putin to one on one physical combat over Ukraine, AND I provide Ukraine with the backbone of their army, an essential service without which their front line would collapse".

(The text is at the bottom of page 22 for me, but who knows where it is for anyone else. Thanks for giving it, DuncinToffee, because if I hadn't actually read it I wouldn't have seen how open it is to different interpretations.)

Did it then go on to say that he would cut Starlink off if people didn't do x y or z? I am not on x so I can't go and check the full text. And I dislike and mistrust Musk a very great deal so I wouldn't be surprised at any shitty thing he might say or do.

Germany itself, and the rest of Europe when it looked at it, had very good reasons to be nervous of a strong German military.

People remembered being under German occupation, their nephews being shot for being cheeky, their pregnant women starving (the effects of that are still significant today), their neighbours disappearing, the fear and the hate.

That's not a situation the US has ever been in and it can't perhaps understand how deep the wounds and the fear ran.

Saw a piece on threads which stated that the US will only provide support for Ukraine if Zelenskyy stands down as leader, has anyone seen similar?

Yes, can't remember where I saw it though. (Glued to various news sources far too much of the time).

What do we make of this tanker collision? Seems one of them was carrying jet fuel for military purposes.

I do appreciate the history here, but during the Cold War, no one seemed to mind Germany having a quite large and capable military, with spending peaking at 3.13% of GDP in 1975. They had compulsory military service as well. This is likely because the Germans would have been on the front lines if the Soviets had come through the Fulda Gap en route to invading the rest of Western Europe. So a large German military wasn't a problem the last time the Russians posed a real threat.

Here's a bit of the history.

The Real Roots of Germany’s Defense Spending Problem

We were not long back from Germany when the wall came down, I think my Ddad must have overlapped you both. It was very clear to us why the British Army was stationed there (we were in Bergen, so very close to the Belsen concentration camp). We were also at times on a 10 minute leave warning just in case the cold war became hot.

Your dad was at the pointy end of the spear in Bergen.

NATO ran the Reforger Exercise (Reinforce Germany) annually until 1993 to ensure we could surge forces there on very short notice in case of war. Everyone in the U.S. Army who participated in Reforger looked forward to it as a bit of a holiday.

@MissConductUS

You just missed ODS.

Yep, during my operational time I was very much a Cold War warrior, either doing flying stuff often in odd places at silly times of the AM or often down a bunker with half an ear on the output from BMEWS….

Lost a few colleagues over the period though, it was Cold but it certainly wasn’t without casualties…

Round ups to follow in a couple of hours 😬

@notimagain, I lost a few too, one in a training exercise (which are much more dangerous than most people realize), and a few more in theater during ODS.

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Drones attacked enterprises across multiple Russian regions, according to Russian Telegram channels citing local residents.

In the Lipetsk region, the alleged target was the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant—one of Russia’s largest steel enterprises. Residents of the city reported hearing at least seven explosions, followed by a fire near the plant.

Drones also attacked the Burevestnik oil refinery in Cheboksary for the first time, as officially confirmed by the regional governor.

Explosions were also reported near the Ryazan oil refinery, while a distillery in the Voronezh region was likely hit by UAVs.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 88 drones across eight regions.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 The U.S. vetoed Canada’s G7 initiative to create a task force to combat Russia’s shadow fleet, Bloomberg reports.

During negotiations over the wording of a joint maritime statement, U.S. officials also sought to soften language regarding Russia.

Specifically, they proposed removing the word “sanctions” and replacing the phrase “Russia’s ability to wage war” in Ukraine with “its ability to generate revenue.”

At the same time, the U.S. is pushing to “strengthen” the language regarding China. The joint statement is not yet finalized and could still be revised.

🔸 This week, Russia attacked Ukraine with approximately 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 strike drones, and more than 80 missiles of various types, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported.

🔹 Von der Leyen on the U.S.: “There are differences between us, but they are our allies.”

As one example, Ursula von der Leyen reminded that Europe’s goal is to ensure that “Ukraine remains in a position to continue fighting until we achieve a just and lasting peace.”

🇵🇱Poland pays $50 million annually for Starlink for Ukraine. If SpaceX proves unreliable, the country will seek alternative service providers, said the Polish Foreign Minister in response to Musk’s statement that without Starlink, the Ukrainian front would collapse.

🔸 The U.S. is halting support for transferred Ukrainian F-16s, Forbes reports.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has ended support for the F-16 fighter jets supplied to Ukraine, including the delivery of vital components for electronic warfare systems.

Before being sent to Ukraine, the F-16s were equipped with electronic warfare systems, including AN/ALQ-131 pod-mounted jamming systems and PIDS+ and ECIPS+ systems. The cessation of spare parts and software supplies for these systems significantly reduces the combat capabilities of Ukrainian aircraft, analysts at Forbes state.e.*_

In response, Ukraine is seeking alternative solutions. France has expressed readiness to provide Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters, equipped with their own electronic warfare systems that do not depend on U.S. support. These aircraft could partially compensate for the loss of F-16 combat capabilities.

Earlier, in August 2024, the White House refused to send American specialists to service the F-16s in Ukraine due to security concerns, fearing a possible escalation of the conflict.

🔹 Trump gave an interviewew_ to Fox News. Key points:*

🔴Zelensky took money from the U.S. under Biden’s presidency like “candy from a baby.”

🔴Trump believes the mineral resources deal will happen and added that he has verified Ukraine’s resource value with top experts.

🔴When asked whether Ukraine can survive without U.S. aid, he replied, “It might not survive either way.”

🔴He treats Israel and Ukraine the same, but said, “These are different places, different levels of strength, different parts of the world, and the Middle East has been under constant attack.”

🔴Trump claims he was the toughest on Russia, halted Nord Stream 2, and provided Ukraine with Javelins.

🇷🇴 Romania’s Central Election Commission has disqualified pro-Russian politician Călin Georgescu from the presidential race.

He has 24 hours to appeal the decision to the Constitutional Court. The court had previously annulled the results of the first round of the presidential elections in December 2024, leading to a complete restart of the electoral process.

🔸 The cousin of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Nate Vance, fought for Ukraine as part of the ‘Da Vinci Wolves.’ Here’s his story, as told by Le Figaroro_.*

▪️Nate Vance served four years in the U.S. Marine Corps before settling in Texas and working in the oil industry. In March 2022, he traveled to Lviv, wanting to help because he “was witnessing history being made.”

There, he met a British volunteer recruiting soldiers for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Vance agreed and was deployed to Donbas in June.

“He was older than us. We went to the shooting range, and he took an AK without a scope, set a target 800 meters away. Everyone laughed at him. But when he hit the target five times in a row, the laughter stopped,” recalled his comrade, Dmytro.

▪️Nate Vance fought in the ‘Honor’ company. “He was an incredible fighter with a calm demeanor. We should have died 15 times—15 times we were lucky to survive,” said Serhii Filimonov.

In January 2025, Vance left military service but remains committed to helping Ukraine. He says J.D. Vance never tried to learn about his experiences on the front lines and expressed disappointment in his stance on the war.

“J.D. Vance is a good person, intelligent. When he criticized aid to Ukraine, I thought it was just about appealing to his electorate, part of the political game. But what they did to Zelensky was an ambush with absolute dishonesty. Being relatives doesn’t mean I’ll accept that you’re enabling the killing of my comrades,” said Nate Vance.

🔹 Senator Graham called for the resumption of arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

“If we turn off Ukraine, it will be even worse than Afghanistan. I don’t think President Trump wants that,” the Republican senator stated.

Graham expressed deep concern over the suspension of intelligence and weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

🔸 Elon Musk stated that he will never disable Starlink for Ukraine. (Photo 1)

🇺🇦 'World's largest' Ukrainian flag unfurled yesterday outside White House rally (photo 2)

❗️❗️Ukraine will propose a partial ceasefire with Russia to restore U.S. military aid, reports Financial Times.

The proposal includes halting drone and long-range missile strikes, as well as suspending combat operations in the Black Sea.

Kyiv is now prioritizing rebuilding ties with Washington. Sources tell FT that by offering a partial ceasefire, Ukraine could regain U.S. military and intelligence support. This will be discussed on March 11 at the delegation meeting in Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, the U.S. may use these talks to assess whether Kyiv is willing to make concessions to Moscow, including territorial ones, according to Reuters.

“You can’t say ‘I want peace’ and ‘I refuse to make compromises.’ We want to see if the Ukrainians are interested in real peace, not just the borders of 2014 or 2022. That says something,” a U.S. official told Reuters.

🔹 Drones attacked the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara oblast

The refinery is part of the Rosneft group. Russian Telegram channels report that a fire broke out at the facility, though officials have not commented. Locals reported hearing loud explosions overnight.

The refinery was previously targeted in March 2024, forcing a temporary shutdown at the time.

🇺🇸The U.S. will hold separate meetings with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, CNN reports.

A source familiar with the Trump administration’s plans declined to disclose the composition of the negotiation teams. The U.S. president stated that “some very important things could happen this week.”

The talks will take place in Jeddah. According to CNN, among the U.S. officials expected to meet with their Ukrainian counterparts is Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry denied that a new meeting with U.S. representatives is scheduled for this week.

🔸 “True leadership means respect for partners and allies,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in response to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statements about Starlink for Ukraine.

“True leadership means respect for partners and allies, even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it,” Tusk wrote.

Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. had never threatened to cut Ukraine off from the Starlink satellite network. He also claimed that without it, “Ukraine would have lost the war long ago, and the Russians would now be at Poland’s border.”

🇬🇧🇺🇦The UK advised Ukraine ahead of negotiations with the US to avoid conflict, reports The Times.

British Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell advised Volodymyr Zelensky to emphasize that Kyiv is responding to American requests, according to the publication. This is meant to signal to Donald Trump that Russia remains the main obstacle to peace.

London seeks to prevent another dispute following the Oval Office incident. The Ukrainian leader described his dialogue with the British official as “extremely productive.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also hopes to persuade Trump to restore intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This issue is considered more pressing than the resumption of US military aid to Kyiv.

🇺🇦🪖Ukraine has become the world’s largest arms importer, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The country’s arms imports from 2020–2024 increased nearly 100 times compared to 2015–2019. Overall, European arms imports grew by 155% over the same period.

The US has expanded its share of global arms exports to 43%, while Russia’s exports have dropped by 64%, pushing it to third place behind France (9.6%). Italy (4.8%) has risen from 10th to 6th place in the rankings.

From 2020–2024, Ukraine accounted for 8.8% of global arms imports. The majority of supplies came from the US (45%), Germany (12%), and Poland (11%).

🔹 Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Saudi Arabia.

The president is scheduled to meet today with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. (Photo 3)

🇩🇰 Denmark is ready to send its troops to Ukraine if there is a need for the presence of European peacekeeping forces.

The Danish foreign and defense ministers expressed the government’s position, which received support from members of parliament. No concrete decisions have been made yet, as it depends on the development of events.

🔸 Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported that the situation in the Kursk region remains under the control of the Defense Forces, but they need to be reinforced with “electronic warfare and drone capabilities.”

He also stated that there is no threat of Ukrainian units being encircled in the Kursk region.

🔹 Ukrainian journalist Ostap Yarysh has been dismissed from Voice of America as part of staff reductions under the DOGE department led by Elon Musk.

“Opart from me, several other people from different language services at Voice of America were also laid off. The decision to terminate cooperation was made by the new leadership of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which oversees Voice of America, based on recommendations from DOGE. I was informed of my dismissal unexpectedly, in the middle of a workday, while preparing for a broadcast,” Yarysh wrote.

He added that the formal reason given for his dismissal was that his work was “not critically important to the organization’s mission.”

▪️Ostap Yarysh had worked in the Ukrainian section of Voice of America since 2019.

▪️The Trump administration, with the support of billionaire Elon Musk and his U.S. Government Efficiency Department (DOGE), is seeking to reduce the number of federal employees to cut costs.

United 24 Media:

🔹 Ukraine has signed a memorandum with the German company Diehl Defence, the manufacturer of the IRIS-T air defense system. The agreement provides for a threefold increase in the supply of missiles and air defense systems.

🔸 Vodka production in Russia has significantly declined, dropping by 26.3% compared to the same period in 2024, according to The Moscow Times. The decrease is attributed to higher excise duties and an increase in the minimum retail price, which rose by 50 rubles per bottle.

🔹 Pro-Kremlin far-right politician Călin Georgescu has been removed from Romania’s elections, Deutsche Welle reports. A representative of the local electoral bureau stated that the commission had received over a thousand complaints against Georgescu, mostly related to his anti-democratic and extremist views. The politician has the right to appeal the decision to the Constitutional Court.

Georgescu is known for his far-right stance and openly pro-Russian views. He has praised Romania’s fascist leaders from the 1930s and, in an interview, called Ukraine a “fictional state,” claiming that its territory would “inevitably” be divided among neighboring countries after the war.

🔸 Energoatom and the French nuclear industry leader Orano have signed an agreement for uranium enrichment services until 2040. The enrichment will take place outside Ukraine, and the fuel will be used to supply Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

🔹 The EU remains committed to completely phasing out Russian gas supplies, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated.

“I am very clear in my commitment to a gradual phase-out of Russian gas… it is an absolute necessity. We have made progress, but we always see, of course, that there are loopholes where we have to be careful and where we have to work,” she told reporters in Brussels.

❗️In February, Russian targets were hit and destroyed 22% more than in January, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported.

He noted that FPV drones and multi-rotor bombers are the most effective in inflicting damage on the enemy.

🔸 Pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu is preparing to appeal the CEC’s refusal to re-register him as a candidate in Romania’s presidential election, Reuters reports.

The appeal must be filed within 24 hours, and the Constitutional Court is expected to rule by Wednesday, March 12.

“If the court upholds the Central Election Commission’s decision, Romania’s three ultranationalist opposition parties, which hold 35% of the seats in parliament and supported Georgescu’s previous presidential campaign, risk being left without a candidate in the May elections,” the report states.

Despite the Constitutional Court dismissing all complaints regarding Georgescu’s participation, the CEC refused to register his candidacy by a vote of ten to none. Only four commission members voted in favor.

Following the decision, Georgescu's supporters gathered outside the CEC building, clashing with police and attempting to break in. The politician urged his supporters to avoid violence.

Analysts interviewed by the agency believe that despite Georgescu's victory in the first round of the elections in November, his chances of re-election in May are slim due to an ongoing investigation into his possible ties to Russia.

🔹 Britain is working to unfreeze £2.3 billion from the sale of Chelsea FC to help Ukraine.

According to the Financial Times, Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised to take the necessary steps through the courts. The club was previously owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who was sanctioned by London in March 2022.

The funds from the sale are intended for humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

🔸 British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host a virtual meeting of world leaders on Saturday, March 15, to discuss Ukraine.

Bloomberg reports that the meeting will include leaders of NATO countries willing to join their military forces in the “coalition of the willing.” However, the specific countries participating have not been disclosed.

This week, Russia attacked Ukraine with approximately 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 strike drones, and more than 80 missiles of various types, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported.

One note about the Russian glide bombs - Ukraine now has an effective EW countermeasure. The Russians will probably keep dropping them anyway, out of organizational inertia.

www.yahoo.com/news/russia-glide-bombs-were-unstoppable-101722051.html

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thank you for taking the time to do the updates.
Very useful and I am very grateful you still find the energy to keep us informed.
I am certain I am not alone in my appreciation.