Thread 51 Sunak: A William Hill to die on

[DuncinToffee]

Previoust thread

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5100698-thread-50-sunak-civil-war-what-civil-war?page=40&reply=136272126

10 days to go

Well if England is happy to swap Brexit for the Tories, then I don't see why NI should miss out on a 2-4-1 deal

https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1805998278385029368

@electcalculus and @findoutnowUK
asked over 19k people who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally
CON: 60 (-6)
LAB: 450 (-26)
LD: 71 (+12)
Reform: 18 (+18)
Green: 4 (+2)
14-24th June/changes with first MRP

Reform up 18? How? That makes me shake my head in wonder.

NGL this would be quite funny. Not wild about the number of reform seats.

Presumably not all the Labour MPs would be able to sit on one side of the house.

I really can’t see Reform getting 18 seats. Or maybe I’m being Pollyanna again.

What margin of error is that applying ? 1,5,or 10% ?

3 seats according to this MRP

https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1805977259389354276

WeThink with the Economist have Labour 465 Con 76 LD 52 SNP 29 Reform 3 Green 3 PC 3

I can’t either. Single digits I would have thought.

It’s predicting a con win and Lib Dems 2nd in my constituency and I’m not sure that’s correct either. It would make the tactical voting sites wrong.

The need to get 52% of the vote to be heard. Otherwise we can dismiss them as total loooooooooooooossssssssssssssers and remind them to "get over it".

That's how Reform electioneering works, I believe. They set the rules. Now they can damn well play by them.

I am dreading reform winning any seats. It's putting a dampener on the celebrations.

We heard it here first folks from my friend on the Streets of Sevenoaks! 😂

I can't take the polls that seriously though since hearing it's really down to payment and marketing. Reform/Farage have form for this, plus bots (forgot who said FB was swarming with them earlier on?) so they are using the Brexit and ULEZ strategy again with fake profiles, rationalising their message, group psychology.

LibDems as official opposition!
Love it!
Don't believe it-
But a nice warm thought for today.

(Even though, on these figures, it'll be Johnson and Farage fighting to take control of the Tory rump, with their main eye on GE 2029. Worse and Worser)

He doesn't have good memories of Scotland, even in "douce" Edinburgh

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2013/may/16/nigel-farage-edinburgh-protesters-van

Rather than a fridge though - he hid in a pub (having previously been thrown out of it)! He then had to be escorted away by the police as no taxi would take him.

Yep

Now I’m confused again. 1 tactical voting site says Labour, 2 say not sure and that survey says Lib Dem. Pretty sure Labour is the way to go, but the Tories have badly screwed this seat with the boundary changes.

My money is on Rish! pushing David Attenborough over and then bludgeoning some otters.

https://x.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/1805992568456683679

Reform candidate says he would slaughter migrants.

But Reform are not the BNP obvs.

Is the opposition always the party with the second largest number of seats or can parties form an oppositional coalition? Eg Tories + Reform or LibDems + SNP + Greens.

I think it’s always the second largest.

I’m all for a labour gvt with Davey as LOTO. Starmer and Davey both fundamentally decent people I think which will make a huge difference.

I complete agree with that!

Weirdly I found muyself thining of a song from my school days

from, 1981

He goes out at night with his big boots on
None of his friends know right from wrong
They kick a boy to death 'cause he don't belong
You've got to humanize yourself

Imagine working together for the country and not your billionaire mates ?

Also said billionaires would drop the Tories the moment they are of no use to them.

Not a bad revenge for 2015 if it happens. Dare to dream,. Ed. dare to dream.

I am getting really nervous now.

Labour will win, but Reform, like @Cheguevarahamster says, are putting a dampner on it all.

I would love Ed Davey to be LOTO.

Sunlight every time,

Me too & Yy Ed Davey as LOTO, I just wish reform weren’t even a dot on the horizon in this election, makes me feel quite sick at the thought of them winning seats the bile & hatred spewed out by the reform candidates is truly horrifying & the thought of having to listen to more of it if any are elected turns my stomach.