Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Messaging coming out of the Ukraine visit by the Hungarian Foreign Minister's seems fairly positive. Some reports that Hungary has fundamentally changed its position on funding for Ukraine.

Thanks to some serious strong arming!

I have nowhere else to vent about this, so I thought I'd pop on here and mention how angry I am that the US failed to deter the attack that killed three American soldiers in Jordon. Somehow, the White House has failed to see that their fear of escalation has caused the Iranians to escalate and that they have a duty to protect the lives of American service members.

Rant over.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv would win faster https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-would-win-faster-if-allowed-to-hit-deep-inside-russia-ukrainian-navy-commander-says/ if allowed to hit deep inside Russia with Western weapons, Navy commander Vice Admiral Neizhpapa says

⚡️Financial Times: Leaked document reveals https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-leaked-document-reveals-eu-considering-cutting-off-funding-to-hungary-over-ukraine-aid-veto/ EU considering cutting off funding to Hungary over Ukraine aid veto.
The European Union will urge its member states to shut off all EU funding to Budapest if Hungary does not back down on its pledge to veto the EU's proposed $55 billion military aid package for Ukraine, a leaked document prepared by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times revealed on Jan. 28.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto arrived in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod on Jan. 29 for bilateral talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of the president. https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-minister-arrives-for-bilateral-meeting-in-ukraine/

⚡️⚡️FT: Russia's proposed https://kyivindependent.com/ft-russias-proposed-gas-pipeline-to-china-hindered-by-construction-delays/ gas pipeline to China hindered by construction delays.
A planned gas pipeline connecting Russia's Yamal Peninsula through Mongolia to China faces construction delays, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene said in comments published by the Financial Times (FT) on Jan. 28. Construction of the pipeline, referred to as Power of Siberia 2, was scheduled to begin in 202

⚡️ US inspectors arrive in Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/us-inspectors-arrive-in-kyiv-to-help-oversee-aid/ to help oversee aid.
Three Inspectors General from the U.S. Defense Department, the State Department, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) arrived in Kyiv on Jan. 29 for meetings with Ukrainian officials, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink announced.

⚡️ EU extends economic sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/eu-extends-economic-sanctions-against-russia-for-further-6-months/ against Russia for additional 6 months.

⚡️ Media: Putin plans to visit Turkey https://kyivindependent.com/media-putin-plans-to-visit-turkey-in-february/ in February to discuss Ukraine and other issues, the Russian state-run media outlet TASS announced on Jan. 29, citing Yuri Ushakov, an advisor to Putin.

️ Ukraine refutes https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-capture-of-village-near-kupiansk-ukraine-denies/ Russia captured Tabaivka village near Kupiansk.

⚡️Russian governor claims https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-attempted-drone-attack-on-oil-refinery-in-yaroslavl/ attempted drone attack on oil refinery in Yaroslavl

⚡️Zelensky releases https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-declares-income-of-uah-3-7m-in-2022-a-drop-from-the-previous-year/ personal financial declarations showing fall in income over 2022. The summary on the presidential website says that his household cashflow fell by UAH 1.8 million ($47,50) to UAH 3.7 million ($97,706) in 2022, compared to 2021.

⚡️Finland presidential election to go to runoff https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-presidential-election-to-go-to-runoff-former-pm-ahead/ former PM ahead.

⚡️ Investigation: Latvian member of European Parliament allegedly Russian agent. https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-latvian-member-of-european-parliament-allegedly-russian-agent/

⚡️ Media: Ruling Georgian Dream party chair Kobakhidze to take over https://kyivindependent.com/media-ruling-georgian-dream-party-chair-kobakhidze-to-take-over-as-georgian-pm/ as Georgian PM.

⚡️Zelensky, Greek PM hold https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-greek-pm-hold-phone-call-discuss-prep/ phone call, discuss preparation for Ukraine-Balkans summit.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Increase in arson attacks at Russian enlistment offices likely signals https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-increase-in-arson-attacks-at-russian-enlistment-offices-signals-disaffection-with-war/ 'disaffection' amid war, potential mobilization.

⚡️ Ukraine's POW Coordination Headquarters restores services https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-pow-coordination-headquarters-restores-services-after-cyberattack/ after cyberattack.
Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said on Jan. 29 that it had restored all services following yesterday's DDoS attack.

⚡️ Moscow court orders arrest https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-court-orders/ of 4 Navalny's associates in absentia.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Russia introduces https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-introduces-retraining-program-enabling-ex-military-personnel-to-pursue-teaching-careers/ retraining program enabling ex-military personnel to pursue teaching careers.

⚡️ Romanian far-right leader lays claim https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-far-right-leader-lays-claim-on-ukrainian-regions-moldova/ on Ukrainian regions, Moldova.

The Defense Ministry and law enforcement agencies continue to carry out surprise inspections in regional enlistment offices and food warehouses and have already found many violations, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wrote on Jan. 28 on Facebook. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-inspects-enlistment-offices-discovers-numerous-violations/

⚡️ Putin officially registers as candidate https://kyivindependent.com/putin-officially-registers-as-candidate-in-presidential-election/ in presidential election.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 29, 2024
■ Casualties: Highest 7-day & 2nd highest daily losses this year so far
■ Triple-digit equipment losses; vehicles & APVs match 7-day record for 2024
■ Strikes on both sides stay below average while engagements are at 7-day average
■ More settlements under artillery fire but are still below average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German Finance Minister Lindner criticized European partners, stating that they do too little for Ukraine.

🇫🇷 Following the first meeting of the Artillery Coalition in Paris, France has committed to supplying Ukraine with 3,000 155-mm caliber shells monthly for French artillery systems in use by the Ukrainian military. Additionally, France will provide 50 A2SM hybrid bombs each month, transfer a total of 40 long-range SCALP missiles, and manufacture 78 Caesar self-propelled guns annually.

The German company Quantum-Systems has commenced the delivery of 100 Trinity tactical drones to Ukraine, as agreed upon in September 2023. Ukrainian operators have undergone training, including instructor training, for the use of Trinity drones in Ukraine. Additionally, the company is supplying Ukraine with hundreds of Vector UAVs on behalf of the German government.

Pro-Russian hackers from the NoName05716 group have reportedly announced their preparation for an attack on the Ukrainian government, as per The Guardian.
The publication indicates that other hacker groups, including 22C, Skillnet, CyberDragon, Federal Legion, People's Cyber Army, and Phoenix, might also be involved in the planned cyber attack. However, the details of the alleged attack are not specified in the message.

Zelenskyy hopes that the USA will not stop helping Ukraine, otherwise Europe will not be able to cope alone, NATO will weaken and this will threaten the redistribution of the world.

NATO must be prepared for Russian strikes on targets in Europe in the event of a war initiated by the Kremlin, warned Lieutenant General Alexander Solfrank, the commander of the NATO Military Logistics Center in Germany.

After the conclusion of the Australian Open-2024, three Ukrainian tennis players have entered the TOP-30 of the WTA (Women's Tennis Association) rankings.

Avdiivka https://t.me/United24media/17983

French sailors showed footage of the Marlin Luanda tanker, which was previously attacked by the Yemeni Houthis, carrying Russian oil

🫡4th place was taken by the Ukrainian army, as one of the most powerful armies in Europe, — Global Firepower.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪German UAV manufacturer Quantum-Systems has started https://deaidua.org/news/2024/01/28/quantum-systems-100-trinity-drones-to-ukraine/ supplying Trinity drones of various modifications to Ukraine.
One of the modifications that Ukraine will receive is Trinity Pro, a variant of a mapping drone that can take off and land vertically.
▪️The maximum time Trinity Pro can stay in the air is 90 minutes.
▪️The flight range is 5-7.5 km.
▪️The maximum takeoff weight is 5.75 kg.
In just one flight, one drone can cover an area of 700 hectares or a linear corridor of 90 kilometers," the manufacturer notes.

On the evening of January 23, a Russian missile destroyed the presidium of the Academy of Legal Sciences of Ukraine in Kharkiv, said Serhiy Babak, chairman of the Rada Committee on Education, Science and Innovation.

This Russian soldier was shot in the legs by his commanders or shot himself to avoid an assault on Ukrainian positions https://t.me/liveukraine_media/17649

🇫🇷Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 bomber with a suspended French SCALP cruise missile in a secure hangar
"From Paris with love, Ruscists, go to hell"

Condolences @MissConductUS .
What a dreadful business war is all round.

Had cross posted with you @MissConductUS

I'm sorry for the deaths :/

Thanks. Another eight were hurt badly enough to require medevac, probably to Germany.

We've been here before with the Iranians. The last time, it was handled much better. The Iranians haven't laid a single naval mine since.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

Rant away @MissConductUS. There seems so much ability and will to escalate on the Iranian (or Iranian-backed) side. The US administration must be gaming all of their responses

I don't know what they're doing. The Iranians are escalating. I don't think for a minute that the proxy forces are doing this without Iranian approval.

I think the Iranian spy ship in the Red Sea that's providing targeting data to the Houthis needs to be promoted to submarine.

They're provoking aren't they, and to what end?

I think that what the Iranians want is for US forces to leave the Middle East altogether. That would help them isolate Israel. They must believe that there's some chance Biden would leave to avoid the issue in an election year.

The more moderate Arab states want us to stay, as they see the Iranians as a grave threat. There's also the Shia vs Sunni issue, Arab vs Persian, etc.

Sorry to hear this :( vent away

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Contradicting reports https://kyivindependent.com/commander-in-chief-zaluzhnyi/ point at dismissal of Zaluzhnyi as top commander, no official decree published.
Zelensky's spokesman Sergii Nykyforov told the Kyiv Independent at 7:50 p.m. on Jan. 29 that Zaluzhnyi wasn't dismissed.

⚡️FT: EU agrees https://kyivindependent.com/ft-eu-billions-in-profits/ to set aside billions in profits from frozen Russian assets.
The European Union has agreed to set aside billions of euros of profits from frozen Russian Central Bank assets, paving the way to allow the profits to be transferred to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 29.

Negotiations with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto proved the mutual desire of Kyiv and Budapest to hold a bilateral meeting of the two countries' leaders, Ukraine's Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak said on Jan. 29, as cited by European Pravda. https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-minister-arrives-for-bilateral-meeting-in-ukraine/

The Netherlands has allocated €122 million ($132 million) to support Ukraine's ammunition supply, equipment, and cybersecurity, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Jan. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-allocates-132-million-for-ukraines-ammunition-equipment-cyber-defense/

⚡️ Belgium, Ukraine sign memorandum https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-ukraine-sign-memorandum-to-strengthen-joint-weapons-production/ to strengthen joint weapons production.

⚡️Zelensky: Surpassing (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-surpassing-russia-in-drone-operations-one-of-the-main-tasks-in-2024/ Russia in drone operations 'one of the main tasks’ in 2024.

⚡️Politico: US arms exports increase https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-arms-exports-increase-over-50-in-2023/ over 50% in 2023.
Sales of attack and transport helicopters, and long-range missile launchers to Poland and Germany constituted around $30 billion, the largest overall deals, according to the report.

⚡️ Latvian member of European Parliament accused of spying https://kyivindependent.com/latvian-member-of-european-parliament-accused-of-spying-officially-under-investigation/ officially under investigation. A bombshell investigative report released by the independent Russian media outlet The Insider on Jan. 29 alleged that Zdanoka has been a Russian intelligence asset since at least 2005. She represented Latvia in the European Parliament from 2004-2018 and again from 2019 until the present.

⚡️ Military: Ukraine downs https://kyivindependent.com/army-ukraine-downs-russian-su-34-jet-over-luhansk-oblast/ Russian Su-34 jet over Luhansk Oblast.

Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defense system amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia, the Institute for the Study of War reported in its daily assessment on Jan. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-may-be-shutting-down-phone-connection-to-prepare-air-defense/

⚡️ Minister: Ukraine cannot outproduce Russia, needs to focus on advanced technology. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraines-defense-industry/
Ukraine's industry cannot outperform Russia in terms of conventional weapons production and needs advanced technology to find a new approach, Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said in an interview with Time magazine published on Jan. 29.

Opinion: How many tanks https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have-left/ does Russia really have left?
"This question has come up quite frequently in discussions, and it’s simply impossible to find a precise answer . . . But this doesn’t deter us from trying to count Russia’s tanks anyway," writes Ukrainian military historian Andrii Kharuk in an op-ed.

⚡️ Russia, Belarus to create joint state media outlet. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-belarus-to-create-joint-state-media-outlet/

⚡️Whereabouts of jailed Russian opposition figure Kara-Muza unknown https://kyivindependent.com/whereabouts-of-imprisoned-russian-opposition-activist-kara-muza-unknown-wife-says/ wife says.

The government has submitted a draft law on restructuring the Economic Security Bureau, which is one of the conditions of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) financing to Ukraine, Taras Melnychuk, the government's representative in parliament said on Jan. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/economic-security-bureau-restructuring/

⚡️Ukrainian journalists meet G7 ambassadors https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-journalists-meet-g7-ambassadors-amid-concerns-about-press-freedom/ amid concerns about press freedom.

⚡️Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva banned for 4 years https://kyivindependent.com/russian-figure-skater-kamila-valieva-banned-for-4-years-over-doping/ over doping.

Another active day. The hundreds of losses build up, day after day after day.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 30, 2024
■ 7-day casualties at their highest level this year so far, triple-digit equipment losses
■ Massive air strikes on both sides, slightly fewer engagements but more settlements under fire
■ Oryx: 449(net), 30-day ratio rises to 2.6x
■ KIU: +40 officers, average for last 4 weeks rises to 4.8 per day

Kara-Murza has been found

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-sky-news-live-news-12541713?postid=7150381#liveblog-body

Good. I hope he survives :s

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The situation with the suspension of the supply of American aid to Ukraine has already affected the situation on the battlefield in a certain way, US Secretary of State Blinken said.

🇱🇻The ruling coalition in Latvia reached a political agreement regarding the ban on importing grain from Russia and Belarus into the country.

The German defense concern Rheinmetall will build a new factory for the production of ammunition to meet the needs of the armed forces of Germany and Ukraine.
"The pace is fast: what would have taken ten years in the past is now being done in a few months. Now we will build a new munitions factory in Germany in record time to create strategic security of supply," he said.

Russia is reportedly establishing a new "Africa Corps" to replace the "Wagner" Private Military Company (PMC) with the aim of rekindling Cold War-era influence on the continent, as per Bloomberg. A source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense indicates plans to deploy five brigades totaling 20,000 personnel in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Niger by mid-year. However, uncertainties persist, given the ongoing need to reinforce troops in Ukraine.
A senior adviser to the President of the Central African Republic, shared that the number of Russian troops in the country has doubled since the death of Prigozhin, reaching around two thousand soldiers. Plans for a military base are also mentioned to accommodate the increasing presence.
Molly Fee, the US Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, raises concerns about the potential threat posed by Russian troops in Niger, where the US has a substantial base.

According to Time, Ukraine is reportedly employing "secret" drones in attacks on Russia, with these unmanned aerial vehicles tested directly in combat.
Access is restricted to a select few civilian engineers, who carry out measurements and maintain records of the weapon's performance.

Luxembourg joined the F-16 coalition

🇪🇪 Estonia will join the training of Ukrainian recruits as part of the Interflex international program, — Ministry of Defense of Estonia

🇺🇦🇯🇵 Kyrylo Budanov met with the Japanese Ambassador to Ukraine Matsuda Kuninori

MiG-29 of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited the USA, with planned meetings with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and President's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
According to Politico, the primary objective of Stoltenberg's visit to Washington is to facilitate the restoration of military aid to Ukraine.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has improved its position in the global corruption perception ranking
This year, Ukraine received 36 points out of 100 possible (3 points more than last year) and ranked 104th among 180 countries.
The key indicator of the Corruption Perceptions Index is the number of points: the higher the score, the less corruption in the country. According to the ranking, Denmark is the least corrupt country, with 90 points out of 100.

According to Belarusian observers, on January 8-11, a flight from China arrived in Belarus, most likely delivering military cargo.

Peskov says Putin will not participate in election debates
Oh, and we wanted to see it so badly.

Russian propagandist Simonyan promises purges for Ukrainians in case Russia wins in Ukraine

A 61-year-old Ukrainian Warrior, callsign "Grandpa," participates in combat missions in the most difficult positions. He never complains and keeps the defense with dignity https://t.me/liveukraine_media/17682

Corruption index

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors about the purported resignation or dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on January 29.
• Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defense umbrella in deep rear areas amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia.
• Russia appears to be fueling and seizing on neo-imperialist and nationalist sentiments in Europe in order to drive wedges between Ukraine and its western neighbors.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a series of economic and technological agreements on January 29 advancing the Kremlin’s efforts to further integrate Belarus into the Union State structure.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russia reportedly deployed more Rosgvardia troops to occupied Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential election.

Three republican governors are today filing a brief to the Supreme Court "arguing that Donald Trump is disqualified from running for president under Section 3 of the 14th amendment to the Constitution."

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000643495944

Would be great to see more of this. US isolationism would be no good for Ukraine or Europe

One good thing about the worry of Trump getting in is its making the rest of the West look to its own military capability.

Yes, that's true. But I don't think Europe could ever compensate for what would be lost. We have to hope it doesn't come to that

Agreed @MagicFox

Opinion: How many tanks https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have-left/ does Russia really have left?
"This question has come up quite frequently in discussions, and it’s simply impossible to find a precise answer . . . But this doesn’t deter us from trying to count Russia’s tanks anyway," writes Ukrainian military historian Andrii Kharuk in an op-ed.

So in 2 years, Ukraine has removed more than a third of Russian tanks. I wonder how many of these, particularly at the start of yhe war, are the newer ones and how many are the older ones that should have been retired?

I think that's a pretty good result at this point, if the article is correct on build and repair rates and quality.