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Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

996 replies

MagicFox · 25/11/2023 14:14

With thanks to all keeping these threads going πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
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336
Mushroomsouptonight · 25/01/2024 08:44

Good grief.

How come Iran is able to make so many weapons to sell to so many terror groups and countries etc? Do the raw materials come from China? Or elsewhere?

DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 11:21

They are experts at avoiding sanctions. So much stuff is dual - use - meant for washing machines, but can be used in weopons systems. Over the years they've developed a lot of ways around the sanctions mostly by routing the stuff through 3rd or 4th countries, apparently, and it was said many months ago that they were passing the know-how onto Russia.

DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 11:22

Blueshoes is away at the moment. Might someone else be able to take over the ISW until she's back? I can carry on doing it but I've started a part time thingie and it means less time generally. Just not doing the ISW would save me a bit of time and mental energy.

DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 11:25

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast on January 24.
  • Russian information space actors are seizing on the Il-76 crash to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and undermine Western will to continue giving military support to Ukraine.
  • Russian law enforcement authorities are codifying xenophobic profiling methods suggesting that migrants are predisposed to criminal activity against the backdrop of continued conflicts between Russian citizens and naturalized migrants.
  • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian hackers recently conducted cyberattacks on Russian intelligence and communications infrastructure.
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany that recent Russian missile strikes against Ukraine underscore the need to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.
  • Russian and Chadian officials met in Moscow on January 24, suggesting that Chad may be the Kremlin’s next target among former French colonies on the African continent.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled Africa Corps published photos on January 24 claiming to show Africa Corps personnel arriving in Burkina Faso.
  • NATO announced on January 24 that the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises have started and will run until May 31, 2024.
  • Positional engagements continued throughout the theater.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to bolster the reputation of Chechen forces.
  • Russian occupation authorities are setting conditions to coerce voter turnout in the upcoming March 2024 presidential elections.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 11:42

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Orban: Hungary supports https://kyivindependent.com/orban-hungary-supports-swedens-nato-accession/ Sweden's NATO accession [at last!]

⚑️ Reuters: White House urges Congress https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-white-house-asks-congress-to-approve-f-16s-sale-to-turkey/ to approve F-16 sale to Turkey.
Biden sent a letter to Congress committees on Jan. 24, saying he intends to launch the process for the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey once Ankara finalizes Sweden's NATO admission process, Reuters reported, citing undisclosed sources. [and there's the price. Can't say that TurkΓ―ye inspires any confidence at all]

The U.K. must increase its military readiness and prepare for the possibility of a land war with Russia that could see civilians conscripted into the army, the U.K.'s Chief of the General Staff, General Patrick Sanders, said in a speech on Jan. 24. https://kyivindependent.com/general-uk-must-train-civilian-army-prepare-for-land-war/

⚑️ North Korea says it tested https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-says-it-tested-new-strategic-cruise-missile/ new strategic cruise missile.

⚑️ Ukraine's oil giant Naftogaz https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-oil-giant-naftogaz-under-cyberattack/ under large-scale cyberattack.
Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-owned gas and oil company, was hit by a large-scale cyberattack, the company said on Jan. 25 on its Telegram channel.

⚑️Russian propagandist lists POWs allegedly killed in plane crash https://kyivindependent.com/russian-propagandist-lists-pows-allegedly-killed-in-plane-crash-ukraine-hasnt-confirmed/ Ukraine hasn't confirmed [it seems generally accepted that some of the names on the list of killed POWs have already been released]

⚑️Ukraine says it was not informed https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-confirms-prisoner-exchange-planned-doesnt-verify-if-pows-were-on-crashed-plane/ about need to ensure safety of airspace following plane crash in Belgorod Oblast [Very Russian. Agree to a prisoner swap, then send them in a plane into the danger zone knowing that Ukraine might attack]

⚑️Lavrov calls for https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-calls-for-emergency-un-security-council-meeting-over-plane-crash/ emergency UN Security Council meeting over plane crash.

⚑️Zelensky on Il-76 crash: Ukraine to demand https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-on-il-76-crash-ukraine-to-demand-international-investigation-fate-of-pows-unknown/ international investigation, fate of POWs unknown.

⚑️ UN Security Council to hold session https://kyivindependent.com/un-security-council-to-hold-session-on-crashed-il-76-on-jan-25/ on crashed Il-76. The meeting will take place at midnight on Jan. 26, Kyiv time, Ukrinform reported.

⚑️Media: McConnell 'floating idea of splitting Ukraine and border security' to solve https://kyivindependent.com/mcconnell-splitting-ukraine-and-border-security/ infighting.

⚑️Slovak PM Fico meets https://kyivindependent.com/fico-shmyhal-meet-in-uzhhorod-for-bilateral-talks/ Ukrainian PM Shmyhal in Uzhhorod for bilateral talks.

⚑️Report finds https://kyivindependent.com/report-finds-georgia-makes-limited-progress-on-required-eu-reforms-risks-drifting-toward-russia/ Georgia makes limited progress on required EU reforms, risks drifting toward Russia

The European Commission plans to continue measures to liberalize agricultural trade with Ukraine, said Deputy Prime Minister of Belgium, which holds the EU presidency, David Clarinval, following an EU Council meeting on agriculture on Jan. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-commission-wants-to-continue-liberalization-of-food-trade-with-ukraine/

Polish farmers began widespread protests across the country on Jan. 24 against the import of products from Ukraine and other non-EU countries, Polish media reported. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-begin-protest-against-ukrainian-agricultural-imports/

Pyongyang has allegedly sent Moscow more than 1 million artillery rounds and the mass strikes on Dec. 30 and Jan. 2 provided the first direct evidence that Russia used North Korean missiles to attack a Ukrainian city, specifically Kharkiv. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-uses-north-korean-ballistic-missiles-to-fuel-terror-campaign-against-civilian-targets/

Foreign investors expressed interest in purchasing two Ukrainian state-owned banks, Ukrgasbank and Sense Bank, Deputy Finance Minister Yurii Drahanchuk told Ukrainska Pravda, the outlet reported on Jan. 24. https://kyivindependent.com/media-foreign-investors-want-to-buy-two-ukrainian-state-owned-banks/

⚑️ Scholz on security guarantees for Ukraine: 'I assume we will finalize https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-on-security-guarantees-for-ukraine-i-assume-we-will-finalize-it-soon/ it soon.'

⚑️Fire breaks out https://kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-oil-depot-in-russias-krasnodar-krai/ at oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.

Huge losses again of manpower and hardware. 59 artillery!

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦
⚑️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 25, 2024
β–  Casualties above 7-day avg; 24.7k in the last 30 days
β–  Massive landbased equipment losses; incl. most tanks this year so far
β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strikes at a high level while πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes, engagements & settlements under fire below average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 11:56

UNITED24 Media Telegram

North Korea supplies Russia with better shells than the West of Ukraine β€” Kuleba.
▫️Although Ukraine has significantly increased its production and will continue to do so, the defense industry of the countries that help us is not able to produce enough;
▫️North Korea is a more effective partner for Russia than friends who supply Ukraine with artillery ammunition. When it comes to making certain decisions, we see how our partners sometimes get bogged down in endless discussions;
▫️We don't need Taurus missiles to attack Moscow, we need them to destroy logistics in the enemy's rear on the territory of Ukraine.

❗️Official Main Intelligence Directorate’s Statement: There was supposed to be a prisoner exchange today, but it didn’t happen. According to the Russian side, this was a result of the downing of the Russian Il-76 plane, which allegedly carried our prisoners. ......Per the agreements, Russia was to ensure the safety of our defenders. However, Ukraine was not informed about the need to secure the airspace around the city of Belgorod during a specific period, as was done in the past.

❗️Girkin was sentenced to 4 years in prison.

Denmark allocates 91 million Danish kroner ($13.3 million) for projects to support the development of cybersecurity and defense of the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine β€” Danish Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen. Copenhagen explains that this is happening under the auspices of the Estonian and Luxembourg-led IT Coalition for Ukraine, which Denmark has joined along with a number of other countries.

"Ukraine is the main target of foreign disinformation," reports Deutsche Welle. Manipulation of information and foreign intervention are identified as crucial elements in modern warfare, according to a study by the Foreign Policy Service of the European Union.
The study analyzed 480 information attacks on states, with 160 specifically targeting Ukraine. Other countries, including the USA, Poland, Germany, and 49 more, were also identified as targets. In terms of individuals, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is disproportionately affected, with 40% of informational attacks directed at him. The first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, has also been subject to similar attacks.
According to the EU study, the voices, faces, and statements of celebrities such as Elijah Wood, Nicolas Cage, Margot Robbie, and Stephen King have been maliciously used for disinformation purposes.

The UK offered Germany a way out of the situation related to Berlin's reluctance to transfer its Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
According to Handelsblatt, which cites "diplomats and government officials," the plan is for Germany to hand over its Taurus to the United Kingdom, and in return, the UK would provide Ukraine with additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles. The proposal was forwarded to Berlin by London a few weeks ago, but no further action has been reported.

πŸ‡±πŸ‡ΉThe head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania came to Kyiv

The largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance will stop all transactions with rubles after January 31

A 130-year-old architectural monument was hit in the center of Kharkiv yesterday.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
MissConductUS · 25/01/2024 12:02

It was a stupidly empty threat.

The US Army Europe forces are deployed all over Europe, particularly in Germany, but also in Eastern Europe:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm

If the Russians were to attack a NATO member, their bases would be the first thing the Russians would target. Under their standing rules of engagement, they will respond and defend themselves. Trump would have no way of stopping the conflict once it starts.

I'm sure that the European countries Trump was threatening understand this.

NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance

An important component of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is its military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Es...

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm

TheABC · 25/01/2024 12:05

I find it staggering how many Russian soldiers die each day. Are they aiming for the same loss levels as the First World War? They've already got a demographic crisis on their hands and more women than men in all age categories over the age of 30.

DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 12:05

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ A Senate committee has approved https://www.reuters.com/world/us-senate-panel-steps-toward-seizing-russian-assets-help-ukraine-2024-01-24/ legislation that would allow the United States to confiscate Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine for reconstruction.
If the Senate and the House of Representatives support the law and Joe Biden signs it, it will mark the first time in Washington's history that the assets of a central bank of a country with which the United States is not at war have been confiscated.

The Russians published how they entered the rear of Ukrainian positions in the south of Avdiivka, near the Tsarskaya Okhota resort complex, through an underground pipe.
The sounds of the work on cutting passages in the pipe were masked by active artillery and mortar fire.
This involved 150 Russian soldiers who traveled about two kilometers through the pipe. They managed to do it on the 3rd attempt, as their infantry had previously faced flooding and lack of air.

Il - 76, which crashed near Belgorod, was flying from the border with Ukraine, not to it - OSINT analysts
▫️According to photos and video, the plane was flying in the opposite direction and began to descend sharply
▫️The direction to the north is confirmed by a video taken from the center of the village of Yabluneve
▫️The first shots from the crash site show no signs of scattered bodies
▫️The plane with the tail number RA-78830 was regularly flying with military cargo to Belgorod.
▫️The number of the crashed Il-76 was RA-78830, according to one of the OSINT researchers, adding that the aircraft was flying through Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran, disappeared from radar near Syria, and then reappeared near Belgorod.
▫️The Kremlin regime reacted very quickly to the situation, without waiting for the results of the investigation to be made public, which may indicate a ready-made scenario.
▫️Given the brutal killing of prisoners in the Olenivka camp, we can conclude that the occupiers are capable of repeating such crimes.

❗️We currently have no reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the IL-76 and in what number - Defense Intelligence of Ukraine

Russian military and political VIPs were supposed to be on board the IL-76, but at the last moment the FSB forbade them to board - DIU
DIU representative Andriy Yusov says that Ukrainian intelligence found out all this after the plane crash.
He also notes that only five bodies were delivered to the local morgue in Belgorod the day before. And Russian rescuers were not allowed to inspect the crash site.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky turns 46 today

Igotjelly · 25/01/2024 13:00

I thought it was interesting that the Kremlin has felt the need to clarify that Putin's visit to Kaliningrad was pre-planned and not intended to send an aggressive message to NATO and the West. I think its another, granted small, example of both sides being very careful with their messaging in order to avoid a miscalculation (still imo by far the most likely cause of any direct conflict).

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Thread 47, I'll remind again as we move towards 1k: Ukraine Invasion: Part 47 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4993160-ukraine-invasion-part-47

OP posts:
MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:26

Thanks Jelly, welcome news

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 13:42

Thank you @MagicFox

Gentle reminder about contacting Mumsnet HQ so they can put their tweaks into place to hopefully stop our pet louse latching on

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:43

Thanks Ducks - I've done that. I messaged on the old thread and I've emailed separately x

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 25/01/2024 13:47

I'm sorry but is he signing a record πŸ˜‚

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:52

A shitty, broken, bad, evil record

OP posts:
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 25/01/2024 16:43

I'll do ISW stuff @DancesWithDucks until Blueshoes returns
That's this web site only, yes? www.understandingwar.org/user/3100/track
And it looks like you're currently up to date? So starting tomorrow.

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 16:45

Thought this was an excellent, interesting read. Long but worth it and the first article I've read that offers a vision for what the post-US international world order might look like. It envisions a new order that works (at a time when it feels hopeless) and sees the wider global tensions evidenced in Ukraine as indicative of the shift to this order. Time will tell I guess but there's a future envisioned here, at least. Though it doesn't offer any suggestions about Ukraine, it does shed light on the invisible ties that are keeping it stuck in this grind. Would be really interested to see what you think of it.

Three Worlds: the West, East and South and the competition to shape global order
G John Ikenberry

academic.oup.com/ia/article/100/1/121/7506681

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 25/01/2024 17:00

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thank you ever so much :)

Yes, that's the page.

DrBlackbird · 25/01/2024 23:32

MissConductUS · 24/01/2024 20:07

Thanks to a law passed last year, Trump can't withdraw the US from NATO without congressional approval. Considering that Congress can't agree on much of anything these days, this seems very unlikely.

https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/

I wonder if that law was passed specifically with another Trump presidency in mind? If so, lots of foresight there.

Also, might’ve been asked about but where is all this UK vs Russian forces talk coming from? All of a sudden it’s in all the news.

DrBlackbird · 25/01/2024 23:34

Igotjelly · 24/01/2024 18:47

Downing Street have outright said that conscription will not come back and Jens Stoltenberg said there is no currently imminent threat to NATO from Russia so nothing new there.

Of course the wild card is Trump…

Okay have seen this has been discussed. Will review.

MissConductUS · 25/01/2024 23:38

DrBlackbird · 25/01/2024 23:32

I wonder if that law was passed specifically with another Trump presidency in mind? If so, lots of foresight there.

Also, might’ve been asked about but where is all this UK vs Russian forces talk coming from? All of a sudden it’s in all the news.

Yes, it was passed specifically because of the possibility of another Trump presidency. It was a rare moment of bipartisan sanity and cooperation.

L1ttledrummergirl · 25/01/2024 23:41

I think it's a last ditch scare tactic to avoid an election. We can't have an election if we are at war sort of thing.

Coupled with Russian bots, knowing they have failed in Ukraine, trying to imply they are still strong enough to take on NATO.

Remember that a scared population is a compliant population, and right now Britain at least is not compliant, it's bloody furious with the current government. They are trying to switch the mood.

Igotjelly · 26/01/2024 06:54

I’m not sure it is a scare tactic to be honest, other than to ingratiate the public to increased military spending. Like it or not our military is in a woeful state, certainly no where near what might be needed to fight a peer to peer war. We’re unfortunately in a World where the chance of that is no longer zero and as such it makes sense to rebuild the armed forces.

I do also wonder if there is a bit on there of reminding the British public that Ukraine is fighting our war for us. If people are reminded there is a risk to them and their loved ones if Ukraine loses you just might see a resurgence in support for equipping Ukraine with what it needs.

In other news there are rumblings that the EU are entirely fed up with Orban and may use the February summit to invoke Article 7 of the EU treaty to strip Hungary of its voting rights. This clause can be used where a member state consistently and seriously breaches the EU’s founding principles.

MagicFox · 26/01/2024 07:27

I don't think it's a scare tactic to avoid an election either. In fact, the govt tried to stop the press reporting the comments. I think Sanders is, as Jelly says, rightfully making it clear that we need to spend more on defence. Seriously. This isn't popular with governments because it's not popular with people. People need to accept the increased spending and what it means for them. It will make things harder but it's a small price to pay in the bigger picture.

Whether or not we end up in a war with Russia (let's hope not - I still can't get my head around why Putin would invade a nato county) the world is in flames. War has broken out everywhere and each one has the potential to escalate and pull the UK in. And all this at a time when the US looks be retreating. We have to be as strong militarily as we can be. I'm concerned by the current emphasis that we can somehow have a limited conventional world war in a nuclear age. It's not a great path to be going down. We really need some rational heads of state who are prepared to think about how the world can work together to solve threats to humanity that, you know, ideally don't come from humanity in quite such a direct way. How amazing would it be to collaborate on new technologies and medicines instead of threatening and killing each other and adding to the climate crisis? How do we get there? That's where we need to be

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