Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Apropos to that, seen it said, but can't remember by whom, that Russia can produce about 100 main battle tanks a year, so current tempo of operations (tankwise) can be sustained.

I'm going to have to dig around and check but I think I've seen some recent discussion on this elsewhere (a very much military forum)

The feeling (if I recall it correctly) was that they could not sustain anything like that sort of rate when it comes to the production of modern tanks (i.e. peers to thinks like Leopard, Challenger etc). There's also the issue of training crews....

I'm sure it's something @MissConductUS will have some insight on.

Yes they've turned all their infrastructure towards production, their economy is a war economy. This is their thing, it will be for years. They will produce, produce, produce. I read that some missiles recovered in ukraine this month had a December 2023 date on so they're coming straight off the line alongside the roll out of the old stuff

More on tanks production here......there's also the issue of how well these tanks can be equipped with the "Gucci" kit such as night vision equipment, modern optics

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/analyzing_russian_report_of_2100_tanks_produced_in_2023_and_wheres_the_catch_in_these_data-8511.html

Published in the FT:

Letter: Call for a collective effort to arm Ukraine for the long term
From Olaf Scholz, Chan­cel­lor of Ger­many; Mette Fre­deriksen, Prime Min­is­ter of Den­mark; Petr Fiala, Prime Min­is­ter of the Czech Repub­lic; Kaja Kal­las, Prime Min­is­ter of Esto­nia; and Mark Rutte, Prime Min­is­ter of the Neth­er­lands

As winter grips Ukraine, its brave soldiers are enduring relentless Russian attacks with no indication that the war will stop anytime soon (“How Ukraine plans to survive 2024”, The Big Read, January 19).
Ukraine’s will to fight persists and serves as an inspiration to all of us who cherish freedom and justice. But crucial problems loom: Ukraine has insufficient amounts of artillery ammunition. And commitments for military support risk falling short of Ukraine’s needs.
At the beginning of last year, the EU committed itself to an ambitious goal of supplying Ukraine with 1mn artillery rounds before the end of March 2024. The hard truth: we have fallen short of this goal.
But we can’t just give up on our promise. If Ukrainian soldiers are to keep up the fight, the need for ammunition is overwhelming. And the EU member states’ delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is more important than ever.
The EU and its member states have been strong supporters of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And with tangible success: Russia has not been able to achieve any of its goals in the war it started. But our efforts must not wither.
We must renew our resolve and redouble our efforts in order to ensure that we sustain our support for as long as it takes. What is urgent today is to provide the ammunition and weapon systems, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs and air defence, that Ukraine so urgently needs on the ground. Now. Because new orders we place today will only reach the battlefield by next year. We must therefore insist on finding ways to accelerate the delivery of the promised artillery rounds to Ukraine. It can be through donation of existing stocks or joint procurement of ammunition through our defence industries. This requires expanding industrial capacities in Europe through framework procurement contracts and sustainable investments by member states. Partner countries could play an important role as well and are invited to join in our collective effort.
The ways are less important. The ends and means are critical. The signatories to this letter have already co-operated on donations to Ukraine, including the delivery of main battle tanks, howitzers, artillery ammunition and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine. We will continue to explore all options and invite allies and partners to co-fund initiatives.
Our ability to continue to support and sustain Ukraine’s defence, both during the winter and in the longer term, is decisive. In fact, it is a matter of our common European security, and for the brave women and men of the Ukrainian armed forces a question of life and death.
The EU and its member states must renew their efforts and step up their military support. The burden is so great that all states need to do everything they can to support Ukraine — it must continue to be a collective effort.
We call on friends and partners of Ukraine to recommit to sustainable long-term military support for Ukraine as a joint European responsibility. This decision must be taken by each and every country. Only then will Ukraine be able to succeed in its defence against Russian aggression.
Russia doesn’t wait for anybody and we need to act now. If Ukraine loses, the long-term consequences and costs will be much higher for all of us. We Europeans have a special responsibility. Therefore, we must act. Europe’s future depends on it.
Olaf Scholz
Chancellor of Germany
Mette Frederiksen
Prime Minister of Denmark
Petr Fiala
Prime Minister of the Czech Republic
Kaja Kallas
Prime Minister of Estonia
Mark Rutte
Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Pavel: Europe, Ukraine need to prepare https://kyivindependent.com/pavel-europe-and-ukraine-need-to-prepare-for-a-trump-presidency/ for a Trump presidency .... and that Trump will very quickly conclude an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

⚡️ Orban says he is willing to compromise https://kyivindependent.com/orban-says-he-is-willing-to-compromise-on-ukraine-aid-package/ on $54 billion Ukraine aid package.

⚡️Politico: Ukraine may receive first new long-range bombs https://kyivindependent.com/politico-ukraine-may-receive-first-new-long-range-bombs-from-us-this-week/ from US this week.
The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) can reportedly strike at a range of 160 kilometers, expanding Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, alongside Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles.

⚡️Official: Russia launches 5 attacks with chemical weapons https://kyivindependent.com/official-russia-launches-5-attacks-with-chemical-weapons-on-southeastern-front-lines-in-past-day/ on southeastern front lines in past day.

⚡️Military intelligence claims it shut down https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-claims-cyberattack-shut-down-russian-defense-ministry/ Russian Defense Ministry server.
Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) launched a cyberattack that allegedly "knocked out" the special communications server of the Russian Defense Ministry, the agency reported on Jan. 30.

Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov said on national television on Jan. 30 that Russia's ongoing offensive in Ukraine would run out of steam in early spring 2024. https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-says-russias-ongoing-offensive-to-die-down-by-early-spring/

⚡️ Estonian general: Russia likely responsible https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-general-russia-likely-responsible-for-uptick-in-gps-jamming-in-eastern-europe/ for uptick in GPS jamming in Eastern Europe.

⚡️Military: Ukraine hits Russian radar station https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-hits-russian-radar-station-for-air-defense-in-crimea/ for air defense in Crimea.

⚡️ Russia reports 'incident' at St. Petersburg oil refinery, media claim https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-incident-at-st-petersburg-oil-refinery-sources-say-potential-drone-strike/ potential drone strike.

⚡️ US Under Secretary Victoria Nuland arrives in Kyiv. https://kyivindependent.com/us-under-secretary-victoria-nuland-arrives-in-kyiv/

Social media giants’ unbalanced fight with disinformation in Ukraine
The goals of Russia’s infowar were to confuse the public, promote false narratives, and weaken support for Ukraine.
The onslaught of Russian disinformation continues to this day. https://kyivindependent.com/social-media-giants-unbalanced-fight-with-disinformation-in-ukraine/
This story is sponsored by the Center for Democracy and Rule of Law.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that the Russian economy will expand much more rapidly than last year as Vladimir Putin's military spending bolsters wider growth, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 30.https://kyivindependent.com/imf-anticipates-large-boost-in-russias-economy/

⚡️Cabinet of Ministers submits updated draft law on mobilization https://kyivindependent.com/updated-draft-law-on-mobilization-submitted-to-verkhovna-rada/ to parliament. The new version of the bill includes specific provisions on rest periods, mandatory military training for recruits, financial compensation, as well legal protections for registered servicemen traveling inside the country.

Transparency International's 2023 corruption perception index saw Russia drop to its worst score in years, while Ukraine's score has improved, continuing the decade-old trend.
Between 2022 and 2023, Ukraine's ranking went from 116th place to 104th in the list of 180 countries, ranked in descending order from the least to the most corrupt. Its score has improved from 33 to 36, with the higher number signifying less corruption.
Over the same period, Russia's ranking went from 137th place to 141th, with the score dropping from 28 to 26. https://kyivindependent.com/key-corruption-index-sees-ukraine-rise-russia-drop-in-2023/

⚡️ Russia's State Duma adopts bill https://kyivindependent.com/russias-state-duma-adopts-bill-on-property-seizure-for-discrediting-russian-army/* on property seizure for 'discrediting' Russian military.*
The bill, first introduced in the parliament on Jan. 22, would allow Russian authorities to seize the property of even those Russian citizens who criticized the Kremlin and have left the country but, for instance, still benefit from renting out their houses or apartments in Russia.[you can almost marvel at how medieval Russia's become]

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russia shows no intent https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-shows-no-intent-of-returning-bodies-allegedly-on-crashed-il-76/ to return bodies of POWs allegedly on crashed Il-76.
Yusov reminded that, as of now, there is no evidence of the presence of the POWs on the crashed plane apart from Russia's claims.

⚡️Russian dissident Kara-Murza transferred https://kyivindependent.com/russian-dissident-kara-murza-transferred-to-punishment-cell-in-new-prison-his-lawyer-says/ to punishment cell in new prison, his lawyer says

⚡️Hungarian FM says https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-fm-long-way-to-go-before-orban-zelensky-meeting/ long way to go before Orban-Zelensky meeting.

⚡️ Bulgaria issues warrants https://kyivindependent.com/bulgaria-approves-arrests-of-6-russians-linked-to-ammunition-warehouses-blasts/ for 6 Russians linked to arms warehouse explosions.
The Sofia City Court approved the issuance of European Arrest Warrants for six Russian citizens suspected in connection to four ammunition warehouse explosions in Bulgaria between 2011 and 2020, the Sofia Globe reported on Jan. 30.

Investigative Stories From Ukraine: Politically connected NGOs help men exploit the Shliakh systemhttps://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-politically-connected-ngos-help-men-exploit-the-shliakh-system-leave-the-country/ leave the country
In this week's edition: Almost 900 men in Volyn Oblast alone could have illegally fled Ukraine to avoid mobilization with assistance from local NGOs.

⚡️ Polish foreign minister: Berlin within range https://kyivindependent.com/polish-foreign-minister-berlin-within-range-of-russian-missiles/ of Russian missiles.

⚡️ Shmyhal: Ukraine goes through winter using only its own gas https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-goes-through-winter-using-its-own-gas-production-for-the-first-time/ for the first time.

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: Ukraine ends 2nd month of winter with stable energy sector. https://kyivindependent.com/pm-shmyhal-ukraine-ends-2nd-month-of-winter-with-stable-energy-sector/

The International Skating Union (ISU) dismissed on Jan. 30 the results of Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva from her team's total score at the 2022 Winter Olympics, stripping it of the gold medal and declaring the U.S. the winner.https://kyivindependent.com/russia-stripped-of-2022-olympics-gold-medal-for-team-figure-skating-after-valieva-ban/ [schadenfreude]

⚡️ Media: Moscow, St. Petersburg to bear brunt of predicted Russian population decline.https://kyivindependent.com/media-moscow-st-petersburg-to-bear-brunt-of-predicted-russian-population-decline/
Russia's largest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, will be particularly impacted by the population decrease predicted to occur in Russia over the next 20 years, the Russian state-controlled media outlet RBC wrote on Jan. 30, citing data from Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

⚡️Governor: Lviv first oblast to complete decommunization process. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-lviv-first-oblast-to-complete-decommunization-process/
Kozytskyi said that 312 Soviet monuments were removed in 2023, with the last remaining structure taken down in the community of Lopatyn, located around 90 kilometers from the city of Lviv.

These are the most important Russian ships destroyed https://kyivindependent.com/these-are-most-important-russian-ships-destroyed-by-ukraine/ by Ukraine

⚡️ Finnish court charges (https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-court-charges-russian-neo-nazi-fighter-with-entering-country-illegally/ Russian neo-Nazi fighter with entering country illegally.

⚡️Israeli opposition leader Lapid says Russia's siding with Hamas will be 'difficult to forgive.'

Personnel losses for Russia over 1000 again

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 31, 2024 7-day casualties reach yet another record level for this year so far, triple-digit equipment losses
strikes stay at a high level,strikes also well above average
■ More engagements, fewer settlements under fire

No idea why some of it's gone into italics, sorry.

@notimagain, the article you linked agrees with my understanding: they're inflating the numbers by including very old hulls that underwent even minor repairs or refurbishment. Another issue is the special, military-grade steel that they used to import for the gun barrels. They can't import it due to sanctions, so any new barrels are going to be using whatever steel they can produce domestically. That will reduce gun accuracy and life cycle.

CEPA report on 'Containing Russia and Securing Europe'. Worth reading, it contextualises a lot of the wider conversation at the moment and brings it together

cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/containing-russia-securing-europe/

I've just read both CEPA reports (the one below and another mentioned in it.) my main takeaway has been how essential US support for NATO is (as in, willingness to enter if a NATO country is attacked.) That's what European security relies on. The scenarios outlined for Russia's containment but also for related potential attacks on the alliance seem glaringly and depressingly obvious. This paragraph really struck me, it's just so sad to have returned to history like this. I feel so angry, angry at old men pissing all over the world and its children. In the report there's a list of potential Putin successors - all of them are in their 60s and 70s (mostly 70s.) what a fucking world (excuse my cross language):

"And so, just as the emergence of Cold War containment meant the abandonment of the dream of universalism after World War II, so too does the reemergence of 21st-century containment now mark the abandonment of post-Cold War dreams of universalism and the end of history. It is a recognition of both the hard realities of the world we inhabit, and of the limitations of American and allied power in that world."

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

A battery of the latest Skynex air defense systems arrived in Ukraine
This anti-aircraft system is designed to work against drones and cruise missiles, has a radar with a range of 50 km, a command post and 4 guns, each of which is equipped with electro-optical sensors and radar.
When approaching a target, the ammunition opens up and releases small tungsten cylinders that form a “cloud of destruction.” Each projectile has a sensor that monitors timely deployment. https://t.me/United24media/18023

President Zelenskyy has announced the release of 207 military personnel from Russian captivity today. He expressed the commitment to continue the efforts actively until all the captives are safely returned home.
The head of the President's Office has provided clarification that among the returning soldiers are individuals from various military branches, including the Armed Forces, the National Guard, border guards, and police.
The group includes defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as those who defended Zmiinyy (Snake) Island and soldiers involved in the defense of various directions, including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson, and Sumy.

The EU will not fulfill its earlier promise to deliver one million shells to Ukraine by March, according to Bloomberg.
Sources in diplomatic circles within the European Union indicated that, due to persistent production delays and concerns about depleting stocks, Kyiv will likely receive around 600,000 ammunition from its European allies by March 1.

⚖️ The International Court of Justice of the United Nations has issued the final decision in the so-called "Great Case" of Ukraine against Russia, including accusations of financing terrorism.
The court found Russia guilty of violating the Convention on the Financing of Terrorism under Article No. 9. It stated that Russia failed to fulfill its obligations to investigate cases of terrorist financing, as highlighted by Ukraine.
However, the Court deemed most of Ukraine's accusations against the Russian Federation unfounded. The key issue was the conservative interpretation of the Convention, where the Court limited the definition of financing terrorism to the transfer of funds, excluding the provision of weapons to militants.

North Korea will be able to provide Russia with artillery weapons to the fullest extent, — Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov.
“They have enough enterprises and a large human resource and work much more efficiently than the Russians. Increasing the supply of artillery weapons will happen for sure.

Human rights activists registered 432 cases of torture and inhuman treatment of Ukrainians committed by Russia. She noted that one case can include torture either of one person or ten or even more people, so it is difficult to establish the exact number of victims. [Occupied areas excluded]

French President Emmanuel Macron calls on European countries to support Ukraine "in the long term" and be prepared in case Washington decides to stop supporting the war-torn country — Agence France Presse.

North Korea will be able to provide Russia with artillery weapons to the fullest extent, — Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov.
“They have enough enterprises and a large human resource and work much more efficiently than the Russians. Increasing the supply of artillery weapons will happen for sure.

Chancellor Scholz of Germany, along with Prime Ministers Frederiksen of Denmark, Fiala of the Czech Republic, Kallas of Estonia, and Rutte of the Netherlands, jointly penned a letter advocating for collective efforts to provide long-term support to Ukraine. In their appeal, they stressed the immediate need to deliver ammunition and weapons systems to Kyiv, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs, and air defense equipment.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

China will not refuse to support Russia on the Ukrainian issue despite US pressure - the new Chinese defense minister Dong Jun during talks with Russian defense minister Shoigu

Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands have signed an agreement aimed at cutting red tape that prevents the rapid movement of troops and weapons to NATO's eastern flank, Reuters reports
In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both NATO and the EU have begun to accelerate preparations for a military conflict with Russia.
In such a scenario, the United States and other NATO allies would have to send significant military reinforcements through North Sea ports via Germany and Poland to the eastern front, the agency adds.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said https://miniszterelnok.hu/orban-viktor-interjuja-a-le-point-cimu-lapnak-2024-01-30/ that "peace has a name - Donald Trump".
"We must not forget that Trump is one of the most successful presidents of the United States in terms of foreign policy. He has not started a single war. [...] My personal belief remains that if the American president's name was Donald Trump in February 2022, there would be no war in Europe. Today, apart from him, I don't see anyone in Europe or America who would be a strong enough leader to stop the war," Orban said.

🇪🇺 EU countries still do not agree to Orban's conditions for lifting veto on 50 billion for Ukraine - Reuters.
Speaking to reporters, a senior EU official said that Hungary's EU counterparts do not want to agree to an annual review of support for Kyiv, as this would give Orban the right to veto decisions every time.

European institutions and EU member states have pledged to provide at least €21 billion in military support to Ukraine
"According to the list provided by the member states, we are talking about 21 billion euros for military support for Ukraine, included in the budgets for 2024," said Borrell, the head of European diplomacy.
He emphasized that this is the minimum, as individual member states have not yet provided figures for their support.

Last night, unknown drones attacked St. Petersburg again
The distance between the Ukrainian border and St. Petersburg is just over 1000 km.🤫🤫🤫
Russian channels publish the first photos of the aftermath of the drone attack on the Nevsky Mazut oil refinery in the center of St. Petersburg. There is destruction there.

The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force actually confirmed the attack on the Belbek airfield [Crimea]
He stated that "Ukrainian aviators will definitely return home to their home airfield" and thanked everyone "who contributed to the clearing of Crimea" from the occupiers.

🇫🇷 French President Macron has also begun to advocate https://www.politico.eu/article/macrons-bombshell-text-threatens-to-wreck-von-der-leyens-trade-deal/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=Macron%27s%20bombshell%20text%20threatens%20to%20wreck%20von%20der%20Leyen%27s%20trade%20deal&fbclid=IwAR3YyHY6WCkVH_-mGE82EElDWQlgYhZaCFzMwCweVRUqYcyncQOsNecNShU for certain safeguards on Ukrainian imports for products that are particularly important to French farmers - Politico

Last year, 187,387 babies were born in Ukraine, which is 32% less than in 2021
The birth rate has been declining in Ukraine since 2013. From then until the start of the full-scale war, 6-7% fewer children were born every year.
In the first year of the invasion, the number of newborns dropped sharply - by as much as 25%, to 206,000.
Infographic: Opendatabot, a digital service for analyzing government data.

Map of what part of Ukraine GLSDB can effectively reach

Wow I've just listened to a horribly depressing podcast that suggests that Europe can't produce enough militarily at scale to defend itself in time to cover the gap that will be left by a US more focused on Asia and overstretched. Weapons etc are apparently procured on a mass scale from China Russia and NK so...

Watching the 10pm news, Putin was looking decidedly limpy at his event today…

I think he looks in depressingly good health!

Ps, would be interested to hear what you think about the Freddie sayers Unherd podcast's latest episode @Igotjelly

Speaking of depressing, the pictures coming out of Avdiivka are grim.

Yes, very

It breaks my heart to see the elderly refusing to leave because they'd rather die than be left penniless and destitute.

It is to our everlasting shame that Ukraine is running out of resources

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The anticipated Russian 2024 winter-spring offensive effort is underway in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area.
• Ukrainian officials continued to deny rumors about the purported dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
• Russian forces appear to be continuing to violate the Chemical Weapons Convention to which Russia is signatory.
• Russian Army General Alexander Dvornikov was reportedly appointed the new chairperson of the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev made offensive and inflammatory comments about Japan while asserting Russia’s rights to the disputed Kuril Islands, likely as part of wider Kremlin efforts to demonstrate Russia’s support of China against the US alliance system in the Indo-Pacific.
• Senior Russian officials may be intensifying their attempts to frame and justify Russia’s long term war effort in Ukraine as an existential geopolitical confrontation with the West by explicitly equating the US with the Nazis.
• Russian opposition sources suggested that widespread internet outages in Russia on January 30 may be the result of Russian efforts to establish the “sovereign internet” system.
• The Kremlin has been intensifying efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space in advance of the March 2024 Russian presidential election, and these efforts support the development of the “sovereign internet” system.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Horlivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 30.
• The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce at least 100 main battle tanks per month and is therefore able to replace battlefield losses, allowing Russian forces to continue their current tempo of operations “for the foreseeable future.”
• Russian authorities are planning to increase the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia in 2024.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce at least 100 main battle tanks per month and is therefore able to replace battlefield losses, allowing Russian forces to continue their current tempo of operations “for the foreseeable future.”

As discussed upthread that needs a bit of qualification.

Some of the UK MoD output to the media is probably the result of their own analysis but sometimes just parrot stuff that's already in the public domain.

@notimagain what do you think about the narrative that without shifting to a war footing Europe would be defenceless if the US pulls back? Also, if the British army is small and unlikely to expand due to lack of investment, couldnt Britain contribute in a different way in the event of a NATO conflict? As part of nato there would be better funded armies that could be supported by British training and tech (where our investment goes.)? Obviously I am wholly ignorant on this area so forgive me if that sounds exactly that!

@MagicFox

With the Russian armed Forces in the state they are in now and will be in the near future I don't think Europe would be defenceless, but they'd be in a tough spot...

"British army is small and unlikely to expand due to lack of investment, couldnt Britain contribute in a different way in the event of a NATO conflict? As part of nato there would be better funded armies that could be supported by British training and tech (where our investment goes.)? "

I think many in the UK find that an attractive idea - many Brit, especially some politicians, have a bit of fixation on cyber and tech, giving it as a reason the UK doesn't need to consider national service or increased defence spending....I don't buy into that POV.

TBH I'm a bit old fashioned and despite being an ex-avaitor am very much of the school that thinks that in wartime or better still to prevent war you need lots of boots and basic kit on the ground.

But that costs.

I think the govt need to focus on this, all over Europe in fact. There's a window that needs to be exploited.

Very much agree.