Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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But will they be strong enough to piss off their populations in the short term? Short sightedness is a huge problem

I've just listened and I'm not sure its anything new. The Russian's might make a move on NATO if it prevails in Ukraine (to be honest I'm still of the view that's very unlikely and would refer people to Mark Galeotti's podcast where that was discussed, which I think was in the episode about the return of a Cold War, because I think it articulates it well).

Eldridge Colby is a Trumpite and is parroting the same lines as the others of that ilk, granted with more eloquence. I'm concerned about a Trump victory absolutely but it's by no means guaranteed.

I thought that Pippa Malmgren made a good point when she basically said that after the invasion in 2022 the West needs to take any Russian threat of force seriously because it's proven that from time to time they do actually follow through.

We know that the British armed forces are decimated and I absolutely agree we need to do something about that. To be honest I'm firmly of the view that military service of some type is no bad thing. It builds resilience and a sense of national pride in a population. However I think its also important to recognise that, even with the stepping back of the US, the UK would not be in this fight alone.

I'm uneasy about anything that isn't optional/voluntary for lots of reasons but am not at all against the option for those that choose it

Also, I think Mark Galeotti is excellent and I will re-listen to that episode : thanks!

From The Guardian.
Finally... I'd like to have been a fly in the wall, I wonder what Orban was threatened/bribed with:

Deal reached on 50 billion euros in EU aid for Ukraine

Charles Michel, the European Council president, has announced that a deal has been reached on 50 billion euros for Ukraine.
“All 27 leaders agreed,” he said, adding that “this locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine.”
The agreement comes after the bloc’s most influential politicians sat down with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán this morning.
Orbán had vetoed an agreement during a summit in December, and efforts have been ongoing to bring him onboard.
Michel’s announcement indicates leaders succeeded in convincing the Hungarian leader.

Good!

I do think it was about time the EU grew some balls and stood up to countries like Hungary. Equally I do worry about the risk of pushing them into Russia's open arms, it also does nothing for the upcoming EU elections where the far right are surging in the polls, largely on an anti-Ukraine ticket.

TBH I'm a bit old fashioned and despite being an ex-avaitor am very much of the school that thinks that in wartime or better still to prevent war you need lots of boots and basic kit on the ground.

This war has proven that you do need boots on the ground!

There seem to be more and more rumours that General Zaluzhny is going to be replaced. I wonder what that will mean.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights.

⚡️BREAKING: All 27 EU leaders agree on 50 billion euro aid package https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukraine-facility/ for Ukraine.
The announcement was made by European Council President Charles Michel during the EU summit on Feb. 1. [repeating what you said, @DesdamonasHandkerchief ]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly set to dismiss Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi following weeks of speculation of a potential rift between the two leaders, CNN reported on Jan. 31 citing unnamed sources. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-zelensky-set-to-dismiss-zaluzhnyi-this-week/

⚡️Bloomberg: Umerov says Ukraine has increasingly 'critical' shortage of artillery shells
Ukraine is being confronted with a "critical" shortage of artillery shells, reported Bloomberg on Jan. 31, according to a document Defense Minister Rustem Umerov sent to Ukraine's European allies seen by Bloomberg. Russia is currently able to fire three times more shells per day, Umerov said. https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-ukraine-has-increasingly-critical-shortage-of-artillery-shells/

Germany hands over kyivindependent.com/germany-hands-over-iris-t-anti-air-missiles-armored-vehicles-other-equipment-in-latest-delivery-to-ukraine/ an undisclosed number of IRIS-T missiles, 24 APCs, four tracked all-terrain armored vehicles, several thousand rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, 14 mine plows, three mine-clearing tanks, a naval mine clearance system, a Satcom surveillance system, and other equipment.

Armenia formally joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Jan. 31, months after ratifying the Court's Rome Statute, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported on Jan. 31. https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-formally-joins-icc/ [Should be interesting if Putin flies there!]

The U.K.'s House of Lords issued a report on Jan. 31 condemning the "incomprehensible" failure of the government to spend frozen funds from Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich's sale of Chelsea football club (FC) on aid for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/uk-lawmakers-criticize-failure-to-use-funds-from-russian-oligarch-abramovichs-sale-of-chelsea-fc-for-ukraine/

Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, reportedly told the three leaders of Baltic parliaments that President Biden's national security proposal that combines aid for Ukraine with border policy reform would likely be split up. https://kyivindependent.com/house-speaker-johnson-says-ukraine-aid-border-deal-likely-to-be-split/

⚡️Reuters: European Commission to begin talks on 13th Russian sanctions package https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-european-commission-to-begin-talks-on-13th-russian-sanctions-package/

⚡️Budanov hints at plan to increase strikes https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-hints-at-plan-to-increase-strikes-on-russian-critical-infrastructure/ on Russian critical infrastructure.

Three Moldovan companies continued to supply aircraft parts worth around $15 million to Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, despite European sanctions, RFE/RL Moldova reported on Jan. 31. https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-moldovan-companies-supplied-aircraft-parts-to-russia-in-2023/

⚡️Zelensky: Almost half of 207 exchanged prisoners were defenders https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-207-ukrainian-prisoners-return-home-from-russian-captivity/ of Mariupol.

Ukraine Business (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-january-30/) Roundup — January 30
Facing $37 billion in external financing needs and aiming for self-sufficiency, Ukraine must seek better donor assistance, writes Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. One option is the "help Ukraine from within Ukraine” concept.
After businessman Ihor Mazepa's surprising detention, Ukrainian business leaders met officials to protest unjustified pressure from law enforcement. It appears their message was heard. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-january-30/

The 18.17 million ($480,000) bail for Vsevolod Kniazev, the ex-chief of the Supreme Court arrested on corruption charges, was paid, Ukrainska Pravda and Ukrinform reported on Jan. 31, citing official sources. https://kyivindependent.com/ex-supreme-court-chief-reportedly-released-on-bail/

Members of the Russian rock band Bi-2 were allowed to fly to Israel after some of their members risked being deported from Thailand to Russia, the band's lawyer told independent media outlet Mediazona on Jan. 31. https://kyivindependent.com/media-members-of-bi-2-allowed-to-fly-to-israel-avoid-deportation-to-russia/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 1, 2024
■ 7-day casualties rising, 4th day of 100+ equipment losses
■ Jan: 2nd biggest month for equipment losses, 3rd highest in casualties
■ But also: Most 🇷🇺 airstrikes, 2nd biggest for MLRS strikes, 3rd in missile strikes

Yes but where will they come from? There needs to be investment across the EU

I just don't feel there should ever be a situation where people are forced into service. Why aren't the govt paying those who join the army properly and investing in them, making it an attractive and valued career option? It's wilfully negligible of their own populations not to do so

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Last night, the soldiers of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine destroyed the missile boat "Ivanovets" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The vessel was on the roadstead of Lake Donuzlav in Crimea. As a result of a series of direct hits to the hull, the Russian boat sustained damage incompatible with further movement and then sank. The cost of the vessel lost by the aggressor state is approximately $60-70 million dollars. https://t.me/United24media/18088

Germany has announced another package of military aid to Ukraine, including various equipment. The aid package comprises:
▫️4 Bandvagn 206 tracked all-terrain vehicles
▫️A Biber bridge paver with spare parts
▫️3 Wisent 1 armored engineering vehicles on a tank chassis
▫️24 armored personnel carriers
Missiles for the IRIS-T air defense system
More than a thousand 155 mm artillery shells
The Wisent 1 armored engineering vehicle is depicted in the provided photo.

In the President's Office, the inaugural meeting of the working group on security issues and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine was convened.
The group comprises over a dozen participants and specialized experts, including former President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaitė, former Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin, and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This working group is expected to address and provide insights into critical matters related to security and Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic sphere.

Putin admitted that he would not stop at the captured territories of Ukraine and would go further.

The French company CEFA won the tender for the supply of 16 self-propelled pontoon bridges "EFA" for Ukraine.
The special feature of "EFA" is the combination of the function of a pontoon bridge and an amphibious transporter, allowing quick reconstruction of bridge structures and using "EFA" as a ferry.
It is also possible to combine several "EFAs" to extend the crossing. https://t.me/United24media/18066

Ukraine received $390 million from Japan as part of World Bank projects aimed at social protection and agricultural recovery.

▫️In 2023, 187.4 thousand children were born in Ukraine, compared to 209.4 thousand in 2022, reflecting a decade-long trend of falling birth rates.
▫️Ukraine currently holds the lowest total fertility rate globally, with an average of 0.7 children per woman.
▫️The average life expectancy of men has dropped to 58 years, compared to 67 years before the full-scale war.

The commander of the Azov National Guard brigade, Denys "Redys" Prokopenko, emphasized the enduring significance of infantry in warfare, despite advancements in modern technologies. Speaking at the https://EstMil.tech 2024 military conference in Tallinn, he stated, "Our experience shows that when we are dealing with a sufficiently strong enemy, the concept of modern warfare without well-trained and disciplined infantry is false." [as we are discussing the matter]

British Defense Minister Grant Shapps met with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, where they discussed aid to Ukraine among other topics.

From Live: Ukraine, a grim assessment of what happens without US funding, though I'm not sure how the newly-announced 50billion over 4 years from Europe fits into that.

❗️Without Western aid, Ukraine will have enough money for a quarter - but the whole country will feel the deterioration — The New York Times

The New York Times writes www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/world/europe/ukraine-economy-war.html about the negative consequences of the West's delay in providing financial assistance to Ukraine.

The journalists of the publication talked to the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergiy Marchenko, investment banker Sergiy Fursa, analyst of the British research center Chatham House Orysia Lutsevych and those who receive assistance from the state. Ukraine will make it through February without the 50 billion euros from the EU and 61 billion dollars from the US that were supposed to be allocated last year, shifting funds from one direction to another, between local and central budgets. It can hold out for a while longer by issuing domestic bonds, printing money, limiting or delaying salaries for civil servants. However, this will already affect the overall situation in the economy, the publication writes.

Despite the full-scale war, the Ukrainian economy is holding up surprisingly well, says Orysia Lutsevych. But this is largely due to Western aid, which pays salaries to teachers and doctors, and finances the work of state scientific and cultural institutions. As soon as these salaries disappear, it will affect the work of at least shops and restaurants. The state can cut all its spending to the bare essentials - no street repairs or new railroad cars, only war and critical payments.

However, hundreds of thousands of people will not be able to survive in such conditions. The journalist of the publication talked to an internally displaced person Olena Bondarenko, who moved from Orikhiv to Zaporizhzhia. Her salary now amounts to $210, and the state paid another $135. Starting in the new year, state payments will be reduced, and Olena does not understand how she and her minor child will be able to live on what is left. She fears that she will have to return to Orikhiv, where, despite the merciless shelling, her financial situation may be easier. "The stability of the Ukrainian economy now depends only on the United States," summarizes Economy Minister Serhiy Marchenko, hinting that Washington's financial support will unlock many other channels of assistance, including from the IMF, the newspaper writes.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

DIU Chief Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to CNN. Main points:

▪️The most important needs of the Defense Forces are artillery systems and ammunition.

▪️In unmanned systems, we are more or less equal [with the Russians].

▪️A-10 assault aircraft could significantly strengthen Ukraine's frontline capabilities.

▪️More than half a million Russian troops are currently stationed in the occupied territories of Ukraine. However, in the short term, the enemy's current capabilities are unlikely to allow for advancement on the front lines.

▪️The number of attacks on Russian infrastructure is likely to increase. We are talking about all major critical and military infrastructure facilities in Russia.

▪️The civilian population of Russia is finally seeing the real picture of the war - oil depots on fire, destroyed buildings of factories and plants, etc.

▪️The war with Russia can only end in one way - by establishing justice and returning what was lost.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov sent a letter (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/ukraine-tells-allies-troops-are-outgunned-three-to-one-by-russia) to the EU allies stating that the troops can fire no more than 2,000 shells a day. And this should cover the entire 1,500-kilometer-long front line. The occupiers fire three times as many shells a day. According to the minister, the troops need 200 thousand 155 mm caliber shells per month.

Former Sevastopol governor Dmitry Ovsyannikov was detained in London.
He is suspected of violating the sanctions regime. He is currently under arrest. The trial is scheduled to take place on February 20.

The US State Department has denied https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/02/1/7178680/ reports that Joe Biden's administration allegedly opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO.

Solovyov says that this presidential "election" was actually meant for everyone to re-affirm their allegiance to Putin

The Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the decision of the International Court of Justice on Ukraine's claim for violation of the conventions on the financing of terrorism and racial discrimination.
In its statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the court "did not follow Kyiv's lead and refused to recognize Russia as an 'aggressor state' on principle, and denied that the DPR and LPR are terrorist organizations.
They also emphasized that the UN court rejected all of Ukraine's claims for compensation from Russia.

On the night of January 31-February 1, 2024, the servicemen of the "Group 13" special unit of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine destroyed the " Ivanovets" missile boat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Picture

In Germany at one stage there was the option of either military service or civilian service. My partner chose to work in a hospital. I think that's a good idea.

I do think that military service can bring some benefits, though it's not for everyone.

The funding from the EU is good news and congratulations to Ivanovets for the promotion to Submarine

From Live: Ukraine, a grim assessment of what happens without US funding, though I'm not sure how the newly-announced 50billion over 4 years from Europe fits into that.

I believe that at some point last year, the US stopped sending funding for government operations and general budget support and shifted to providing only direct military aid. This was an easier sell in Congress, as the money gets spent in the US ordering replacement kit from American defense contractors. It sounds like this grant from the EU is all budget support, not military aid.

So it's a "company store" arrangement: "we are giving you this money but you may only spend it with us"?

Yeah so long as there's a civilian option so those who for some reason or other don't want to do military service have an option available then I think its good. That's how it works here in Finland, you can do either military or civilian, but the issue is that if you do military you might get out in 6 months but civilian is always a year so its not so fair. But on the other hand, you can work experience in interesting fields, my brother did his in a research lab.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/cia-spycraft-and-statecraft-william-burns

An absolutely fascinating read, recommended on today’s Ukraine the Latest episode.

Thread 47: Ukraine Invasion: Part 47 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4993160-ukraine-invasion-part-47