Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Even the word 'Trump' makes my blood run cold. Thanks guys, you're right. I struggle to rationalise things sometimes. Agree that military funding increase is a positive!

I'm seriously concerned about what happens to NATO if Trump gets in

Me too - BUT there are still several big players, some of whom have nuclear capabilities. I am choosing to focus on what we would still have rather than what we could lose.

Thanks to a law passed last year, Trump can't withdraw the US from NATO without congressional approval. Considering that Congress can't agree on much of anything these days, this seems very unlikely.

https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/

@MissConductUS That is reassuring.

I think the thing that has changed is long term Russian ambition has been laid bare.

I do believe the warnings are valid but not imminent.

Most analysts are saying it will take at least 5- 8 years for Russia to recover from the damage to their military caused by their own doing in Ukraine so we have that time to prepare.

If we do prepare properly its far less likely to ever happen.

I hope that remains the case @MissConductUS, thank you

I can't believe this is the world we live in now

Unless Congress repeals the law, there is nothing Trump can do to change it.

And you're welcome. 😀

I think that’s the thing. It is the World we live in, it is undoubtedly more dangerous and we need to accept that and do what we can to protect ourselves.

On Trump I worry what he’ll do in his newly re-found role of Commander in Chief…. I also worry that it might be the last truly democratic election the US has.

Igotjelly
It is the World we live in, it is undoubtedly more dangerous

How much more dangerous is it today than it was during the 1950s, though? I lived through those, and they certainly didn't feel all that safe!

It feels so intense that when I try to imagine the world in 20,30, 50 years I can't imagine anything good. It's a depressing place to be

And also, imagine all this going on without the Internet or social media. I wonder if people might be a lot less concerned with it all, particularly in respect of the doom-mothering content.

I think the big difference is the predictability of the actors. The Soviet Union was a malicious actor but it was predictable. The Russia of 2024 is not. Alongside that there are multiple other bad actors that are equally unpredictable, including Iran, N. Korea, China etc.

Yes, and it all kicking off at the same time. Look at everything that's happening alongside Ukraine at the moment inc rumbles in NK and the Red Sea.

Donation time
On another thread.

Practically word for word from the useful idiots on Twitter

Exactly this, too many unpredictable volatile states right now. But still, I am optimistic (or hiding my head in the sand, not sure which)

Which thread hogmanayhoolie?

I think there's concern that Russia could build up its military in less than 5 years because there is supply and support being provided from NK and Iran. It makes sense that NATO must prepare to meet that. But just as the boundaries have tried to be drawn in this war, I'm confused by the narrative about Russia expansion into nato territory as surely the risks of Russia to doing so still apply. If it's an escalate to de-escalate strategy surely there would be better ways for putin to do this?

@MissConductUS somebody on another thread mentioned a leak where trump had fold ursula vdl that if another eu country was attacked he wouldn't send help despite nato. I hadn't heard this before - do you know if it was prior to the law being passed in congress? Or had you heard this previously?

It's just been deleted thank goodness

OK good

It was in 2020

www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vow-never-help-europe-attack-thierry-breton/

Thanks!

I think the big difference is the predictability of the actors. The Soviet Union was a malicious actor but it was predictable. The Russia of 2024 is not. Alongside that there are multiple other bad actors that are equally unpredictable, including Iran, N. Korea, China etc.

also, (please correct me if I'm wrong because my Cold War knowledge isn't that full) but Russia's aim wasn't expansion during the Cold War was it? Is another big difference now that the desire to take territory in Europe has been made very clear? That makes things very different.

Yes deleted. Not sure why