Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

**
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Ugh, I have a lot on atm but it's time to write to Ursula van de Leyen asking for Hungary to be ejected from the EU. One letter won't do anything but hey gotta do something.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Michel: EU agrees to open accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova.
The European Council has agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, European Council President Charles Michel announced on Dec. 14.

⚡️Hungary blocks 50-billion-euro EU aid for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/hungary-blocks-50-billion-euro-eu-aid-for-ukraine/ [stinking, foul, decomposing from inside melting toad - may he rot alive with his entrails burning]

⚡️Biden speaks to Erdogan, stresses need for Sweden's NATO accession https://kyivindependent.com/biden-speaks-to-erdogan-stresses-need-for-swedens-nato-accession/ [this is a forgotten problem, but it's a really big one]

⚡️ Putin: There will be peace only when Russia achieves its goals. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-peace-comes-only-when-russia-achieves-its-goals/

⚡️Putin: Russia allocating https://kyivindependent.com/putin-russia-to-allocate-11-billion-to-integration-of-occupied-territories/ $11 billion per year to 'integrate' occupied territories.
Moscow is allocating 1 trillion rubles ($11 billion) into the "development" and "integration" of occupied territories into Russia per year from 2024, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said during a press conference on Dec. 14.

⚡️US Senate to vote on Ukraine aid package next week.
The U.S. Senate will reconvene next week to vote on a proposed Ukraine-Israel aid package, delaying the Senate's scheduled holiday recess, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Dec. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-to-vote-on-ukraine-aid-package-next-week/

Four Russian and two Chinese fighter jets had entered the South Korean air defense zone on Dec. 14, Yonhap news agency reported citing a source in the country's Joint Chiefs of Staff. South Korean fighter jets were scrambled to intercept the planes, which did not officially enter South Korea's airspace. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-chinese-fighter-jets-enter-south-korean-air-defense-zone/

⚡️US House passes record defense spending bill already cleared by Senate. https://kyivindependent.com/us-house-passes/

⚡️European Union countries have agreed to a 12th sanctions package against Russia, moving to ban the import of Russian diamonds among other measures, the European Council announced in a statement on Dec. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-agrees-to-12th-sanctions-package-against-russia/

⚡️ Estonia to send $88 million in military aid to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-to-send-88-million-in-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Germany has handed over a Patriot air defense system, Patriot missiles, and more ammunition to Ukraine, the German government announced on Dec. 14.

The European Council summit must address various concerns pertaining to Ukraine's EU membership in order to avoid a "hard no" on the accession talks, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said during a press conference on Dec. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/metsola-eu-works-to-avoid-hard-no-on-ukraines-accession-talks/

⚡️Poll: 74% of Ukrainians against concessions. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of-ukrainians-against-territorial-concessions/

Zelensky was not invited to the EU Council Summit in Brussels due to fears that his presence "could antagonize" Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Politico reported on Dec. 14, citing unnamed EU diplomats. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-zelensky-not-invited-to-eu-summit/

Zelensky made an unexpected visit to Germany as he landed in Frankfurt, the city's police announced on Dec. 14.

⚡️Military: Russian sabotage groups tried to enter Ukraine 7 times in last 2 weeks. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-sabotage-groups-tried-to-enter-ukraine-7-times-in-last-2-weeks/

Over the last three months, Ukraine won five disputes with foreign suppliers of military equipment worth over Hr 900 million ($24.3 million), the Defense Ministry reported on Dec. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-wins-five-cases/

⚡️ Kyiv protesters demand higher city budget expenditures for military. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-protesters-demand-more-money-for-military/ [now that's unusual - "don't repair our city, send the money to our soldiers"]

⚡️Romanian Defense Ministry: Downed Russian drone found on Romanian territory. https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-defense-ministry-downed-russian-drone-found-on-romanian-territory/

⚡️Putin: Journalist Gershkovich could be returned under 'mutually acceptable' conditions. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-says-he-is-open-to-returning-gershkovich-given-mutually-acceptable-conditions/

Yet another thousand gone.
Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 15, 2023
■ Fewer strikes on both sides: 🇺🇦 at 7-day average, 🇷🇺 above it
■ Fewer engagements but above average, settlements under artillery fire unchanged
■ Casualties above average & most landbased equipment losses in more than a week

Notable that Sweden's NATO accession comes up again, that Congress will vote on the funding again next week and most of all that EU accession talks will start for Moldova and Ukraine!

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

💰The World Bank allocates an additional 1.34 billion dollars to Ukraine — these funds will be directed, in particular, to social payments, Prime Minister Shmyhal said.
The main part of this package — $1.086 billion — is the funds of the Government of Japan. Others are grants from the USA, Switzerland and the Fund for Support, Reconstruction and Reform of Ukraine (URTF), he clarified

Kuleba, in an article for Foreign Affairs, dismissed suggestions for Ukraine to consider compromises to conclude the war. Instead, he outlined three vital elements crucial for Ukraine to secure lasting peace on its own terms:
▫️Military support, encompassing aircraft, drones, air defense, ammunition, and long-range missiles.
▫️Advancement in defense industry capacities within the USA, Europe, and Ukraine.
▫️A principled and pragmatic approach in dealing with potential negotiations with Russia.
He highlighted Ukraine's history of approximately 200 rounds of negotiations and 20 ceasefire attempts with Russia before February 24, 2022, wherein Ukraine made concessions resulting in a full-scale invasion.

Finland will close the border with Russia: all Finnish checkpoints to the Russian Federation will not work again, the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
The Government of Finland decided to open two checkpoints on the border with the Russian Federation from December 14 to January 14.

Today, the situation in the Chernihiv region and across the broader Northern operational zone remains stable and well-managed. Nonetheless, active preparations are underway to fortify the frontlines and positions within the most critical areas by setting up the first and second lines of defense.

Hiroyuki Akita is one of the most influential journalists in Japan. His commentaries in the daily newspaper "Nikkei" are read by hundreds of thousands. Before travelling to Ukraine this winter, he was not sure whether it is the right time for Ukraine to cave into internaitonal pressure and begin ceasefire negotiations with Russia. After interviewing President Zelenskyy and other officials, his conclusion is that a ceasefire with Russia is probably the wrong approach.

---

From WarTranslated, on Twitter:

This interview with one of the members of the Avdiivka garrison was recorded in November. "Zam", a company commander, has been in Avdiivka for many months now. He first saw massive Russian columns advancing on his positions on 10 October '23. This interview will give you an idea of the cost of holding off the hordes, and a truthful, unique insight into the mindset of those standing up to the great evil.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

As of today, 443,000 Russian troops and about 30,000 Russian guards are fighting in Ukraine, according to the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate.
Yesterday, Putin said that 617,000 Russian troops were involved in the war against Ukraine. He did not provide any details or clarifications.

A Kinzhal aeroballistic missile was shot down over Kyiv today, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said.

EU leaders have decided to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union, European Council President Charles Michel said.
Now the bloc's executive body will begin technical work to prepare the accession process, which includes drawing up plans and checking the level of compliance of Ukrainian legislation with the European one, along with completing future reforms.
This will be followed by a phase of negotiations that could last for years, as the path to membership is long and difficult. Croatia was the last country to join the bloc, and its application was considered for 10 years before the country was officially accepted into the EU in 2013.
It should be noted that any decisions on EU enlargement must be unanimously approved by all 27 current members of the bloc, including Hungary.

"Orban left the room when they were voting": EU officials tell how they made the decision on Ukraine
The EU leaders decided to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova in the absence of the Hungarian prime minister, which allowed them to avoid a veto.
"Legally, it is absolutely in accordance with the rules. Yes, we made the decision without Orban's presence, but not behind his back. He knew that this decision was going to be voted on and left the room," said a representative of President Michel's team.
According to sources, all other states voted in favor of starting negotiations with Ukraine. Thus, there were 26 votes in favor and 1 abstention. [this apparently actually means that he was being cooperative, as he couldn't vote -for- it, and it needed an unanimous vote. So by leaving, he cleared the path for unanimity, it seems. I wonder what his payoff was].

Scholz suggested that Orban leave the room during the vote on Ukraine - Politico.
According to the two officials, Scholz told Orban in the presence of other leaders that if he really did not want to agree, he could leave the room so that EU leaders could make a unanimous decision in his absence.
At the same time, one of the officials clarified that this proposal was not spontaneous, but had been agreed upon during previous discussions

🇦🇷 Argentina is considering the possibility of transferring to Ukraine two Mi-171E helicopters purchased from Russia - Pucara Defensa.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The World Bank will provide Ukraine with an additional $1.34 billion in financial aid through a combination of grants and loans, according to a press release published on Dec. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/world-bank-to-provide-ukraine-with-additional-1-3-billion-in-financial-support/

⚡️ Von der Leyen: EU to find 'operational solution for Ukraine funding by next Council meeting.
As Hungary opposed the EU's multi-annual financial framework that included 50 billion euros ($55 billion) for Ukraine, the European Commission will ensure an "operational solution" to the issue by the next meeting, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a press briefing on Dec. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/michel-26-eu-members-supported-55-billion-for-ukraine-one-opposed/

⚡️ Macron confident EU can fund Ukraine even without Orban. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-confident-eu-can-find-ukraine-without-orban/

⚡️ Deputy PM: Ukraine to start talks next week on readiness for EU. https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-ukraine-to-start-talks-next-week-on-readiness-to-join-eu/

⚡️Slovak truckers say they have ended Ukraine border blockade. https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-truckers-say-they-have-ended-ukraine-border-blockade/

⚡️ First Leopard 2 tanks repaired in Lithuania to return to Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/first-leopard-2-tanks-repaired-in-lithuania-to-return-to-ukraine/

⚡️ Umerov: Ukraine to focus on domestic arms production in 2024. kyivindependent.com/umerov-ukraine-to-docus-on-domestic-arms/
Kyiv aims to localize arms production in Ukraine next year, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said during a Ukrainian-British defense industry conference, the ministry reported on Dec. 15.
"The United Kingdom is one of our main partners and allies," Umerov said.
"We are interested in direct deals with British manufacturers and ready to sign long-term contracts."

As Ukrainian officials begin filing asset declarations, controversies surface
Some of the electronic asset declarations recently filed by top officials have revealed huge earnings, valuable assets, and links to Russia.
The discoveries follow the re-opening of the public register of electronic declarations by the National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP) on Dec. 10. https://kyivindependent.com/as-ukrainian-officials-begin-filing-asset-declarations-controversies-surface/

Charles McGonigal, a former U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) officer, was sentenced to four years in prison on Dec. 14 for helping well-known, Kremlin-linked Russian oligarchs evade sanctions and launder money. https://kyivindependent.com/former-us-fbi-agent-sentenced-to-4-years-in-prison-for-helping-russian-oligarchs-evade-sanctions/

⚡️ Belarus launches sudden readiness check of air defenses. https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-launches-sudden-check-of-air-defense-forces/

⚡️Police: Local official detonates grenades in government building, 1 dead, at least 26 wounded https://kyivindependent.com/police-local-official-detonates-grenades-in-government-building-1-dead-at-least-26-wounded/

⚡️ Poll: 8% of Ukrainian business experts say current tax system https://kyivindependent.com/poll-8-of-ukrainian-businesses-say-current-tax-system-favorable-to-development/ favorable for development.

⚡️US Ambassador pays visit to jailed reporter Evan Gershkovich. https://kyivindependent.com/us-ambassador-pays-visit-to-jailed-reporter-evan-gershkovich/

⚡️ UK sanctions Russia's Novikombank. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-sanctions-russias-novikombank/

⚡️Russian Patriarch Kirill placed on Ukraine's wanted list. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-patriarch-kirill-placed-on-sbu-wanted-list/

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs 30 of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight. kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-30-of-31-drones-launched-by-russia-overnight/

Richard Vereker
AT verekerrichard1
Russian equipment losses by category as a % of each month's losses. Sofar December is showing the largest proportion of IFV losses of any month of the war and seems to follow a trend since October.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 16, 2023
■ Reported strikes:up between days,considerably down
■ Combat engagements slightly above 7-day average, many settlements unfortunately under artillery fire
■ Estimated casualties slightly below average, equipment losses down between days
■ KIU: +31 officers, average of 5 officers per day for the last 4 weeks

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 During the summit in Brussels, the leaders of the European Union approved the allocation of €50 billion to Ukraine for the years 2024-2027. This financial support will be facilitated through the creation of the Ukrainian Fund (Ukraine Facility).
Despite Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán's veto preventing the inclusion of these funds in the EU budget, the European Union has formulated an alternative plan. It is expected that 26 member states will individually contribute €1.5 billion to Ukraine starting from next year.

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition due to the delay in the US aid, and the cessation of US support will be crucial for Ukraine — CNN.
Senior US and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian forces now have a five- to sevenfold advantage in shells over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This leads to additional losses in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.
According to Western officials, without additional US assistance, Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles, and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
Air defense missiles have proven particularly essential in recent weeks as Russia has expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter.
Shorter-range missiles have enabled Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian tanks and aircraft, which greatly outnumber their own," the article says.

Macron stated that Orban personally promised him not to block Ukraine's entry into the EU if it fulfills all the conditions of the European Commission. [somehow Órban'll find ways to say Ukraine hasn't fulfilled all the conditions though. And ... that's some way in the future anyway. Is he quite certain he'll stay the leader of Hungary? and is Macron certain too? if so, that says something about democracy in Hungary]

Ukraine's EU membership will require a profound reform of European rules, — French President Macron at a press conference following the EU summit in Brussels.

Today, Lithuania delivered several million cartridges and several thousand RPG ammunition to Ukraine.
For the years 2024-2026, Lithuania is planning a long-term package of military support to Ukraine for an additional €200 million. [There are references to shell shortage in Ukraine atm]

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will allocate €150 million for Ukraine to maintain energy security, — the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal.

The artillery personnel of the 93rd Kholodny Yar brigade have proficiently trained on and are actively employing the American Paladin self-propelled gun to provide crucial support to our soldiers at the front lines. Apart from its precision, user-friendly operation, and swift targeting capabilities, a significant advantage of this self-propelled gun, akin to other Western artillery installations, is its 155 mm caliber. Unlike Soviet system counterparts, our partners possess projectiles compatible with this caliber.
"This is like comparing heaven and earth," express the artillerymen when comparing this equipment to Soviet analogues.

🇹🇷 Defense Minister Umierov, during a meeting with the new ambassador of Türkiye to Ukraine Levent Bilgen, invited Ankara to join the Maritime Coalition to strengthen security in the Black Sea

The Prosecutor General's Office of Finland has initiated a preliminary investigation into alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine by the former commander of the neo-Nazi group "Rusych" Yan Petrovskyi.

This is one of the rare occasions where ordinary people can see what Ukraine's up against: Russia having 5 - 7 x more shells. It's also been said they have a very considerable more number of soldiers in the field.

David and Goliath.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine may lose the war by summer 2024 without US and NATO help - CNN
The publication says https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/15/politics/ukraine-us-aid-western-officials-warning/index.html that Western intelligence agencies are now calculating how long Ukraine can survive without US and NATO assistance. According to one senior U.S. military official, it is a matter of "months," with the worst-case scenario being "a significant retreat or even defeat" by the summer of 2024.

Orban said that he agreed to give up his veto on the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU because he would have many more opportunities to block the process.
According to him, he spent eight hours trying to convince other EU leaders not to make the decision, but "they were not convinced."
"Their decisive argument was that Hungary has nothing to lose, because the national parliaments will have the last word, so the Hungarian parliament can vote against it. There will be 75 more cases when the country can stop it," the Hungarian prime minister summarized.

🇬🇧Great Britain may send troops to Ukraine in case of a catastrophic development of the war — Vadym Prystaiko
The former Ukrainian ambassador to London commented on one of the arguments used by Ukraine to justify the need for assistance - "if you don't help Ukraine now, your children will sooner or later be at war with Russia."
When asked under what conditions this scenario could occur, Prystaiko answered without elaborating: "Catastrophic development of the war... Continuation of the occupation." [a case of wishful thinking, I suspect]

Ukraine may be preparing a counteroffensive for 2024, as Zaluzhnyi planned for this summer - Welt
Welt believes https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus249056460/Ukraine-Krieg-95-Prozent-unbenutzte-Waffen-kann-Kiew-den-Krieg-noch-gewinnen.html that even though the Ukrainian counteroffensive has clearly reached a dead end and the West is hesitant to support it, there are signs that Kyiv is preparing a plan.
They emphasize that Ukraine still has access to more than 95% of all weapons systems supplied by the West, as they have not yet been used in the counteroffensive.
The German publication also emphasizes that the Ukrainian military is expanding its foothold near Kherson on the Russian-occupied bank of the Dnipro River, which is only 60 kilometers from the Crimean peninsula. And this is Russia's weak point.
[well this is news! No idea what to make of it. It seems unbelievable]

God this is depressing, I hope western country's will continue to rally round Ukraine.
If we can see how vital it is that they aren't allowed to be crushed by Putin - and the knock on effects that would have on his, and other dictators, imperialistic ambitions surely the people in charge can see that too. It's looking increasingly likely that he's going to maintain his land bridge to Crimea and rearm to achieve his maximalist ambitions in the future. We need to get Ukraine into NATO pronto.

Can I also say I fucking hate Hungary/Orban and his smug 'There will be 75 more cases when the country can stop it' summary of the accession of Ukraine to the EU.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15-2023

Key Takeaways:

• German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threateningly urged Ukraine to negotiate with Russia sooner rather than later in framing consistent with the ISW assessment that Russia intends to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine through military means.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published an op-ed entitled “There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine” on December 15, wherein he argues that Ukrainian military objectives remain feasible despite increasingly pessimistic discussions in the West.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 14 to 15.
• Finnish authorities closed Finland’s border checkpoints with Russia again on December 15 amid continued Russian hybrid warfare efforts to orchestrate an artificial migrant crisis.
• Germany announced new military and humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine on December 14.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk, northeast and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in several areas.
• Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 14 that “Grom” special units (elite anti-drug special units of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs [MVD]) will fully transition to being subordinated to Rosgvardia in early 2024.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russia’s intention to build high-speed railways in occupied Ukraine, likely hours after Ukrainian partisans damaged a key railway line in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Personally I think Orban is just a gobshite. He could have blocked the start of accession talks but didn’t. He was convinced to go and “get a coffee” essentially therefore allowing the block to vote unanimously as 26. Meant he got to shout about it being an awful decision blah blah without there being any actual impact for Ukraine.

10 Minutes of Hate: Russian lawmakers and leading propagandists explain what Russia wants to do to Ukraine and Ukrainians.

x.com/juliadavisnews/status/1734653765343453232?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-16-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in the area as part of an apparent effort to set conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s supporters formally nominated him as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections on December 16, further solidifying Putin’s image as a figure above the Russian political system.
• Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitri Polyanskiy more clearly defined recent statements from high-ranking Russian officials that align with ISW’s long-standing assessment that Russia is unwilling to negotiate with Ukraine in good faith.
• Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes across Ukraine overnight on December 15 to 16.
• The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 15 that the G7 may consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine.
• Russian actors continue information operations aimed at discrediting and dividing Ukraine’s military and political leadership, specifically Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
• A Russian “Storm-Z” assault unit instructor implied that Russian President Vladimir Putin lied about the unregulated status of private military companies (PMCs) during his “Direct Line” forum on December 14 given the state’s significant administrative control over PMCs and other irregular formations.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16 and advanced in some areas.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Russia will have at least ten Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates in an unspecified time period.
• Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance stated on December 16 that Ukrainian partisans recently blew up the car of the commander of an unspecified Russian unit from the North Caucasus in occupied Mariupol.

* *

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️German defense minister: Europe needs to guarantee security without relying on US. https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-europe-needs-to-guarantee-security-on-the-continent-without-relying-on-u-s/

⚡️ Hungary to veto Bulgaria's Schengen bid unless it cancels Russian gas https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-threatens-to-veto-bulgarias-schengen-bid-unless-it-scraps-russian-gas-tax/ transit tax.

⚡️ Media: Austria backs EU sanctions package after Raiffeisen suspended from war sponsor list. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-austria-backs-12th-sanctions-package-after-raiffeisen-suspended-from-war-sponsor-list/

⚡️Financial Times: G7 steps up efforts to confiscate Russian assets for Ukraine.
The Group of Seven (G7) is increasing efforts to confiscate frozen Russian central bank assets for Ukraine’s benefit, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 15. The decision could be made in the next few months, and the G7 leaders may discuss the issue in February 2024. https://kyivindependent.com/g7-increasing-efforts-to-confiscate-russian-assets-for-ukraine/

⚡️Putin officially nominated as presidential candidate in 2024 election. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-receives-support-from-well-known-russian-figures-to-run-as-independent-candidate-in-2024-election/

⚡️ Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria to sign treaty on Black Sea mine clearance in January. https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-romania-bulgaria-to-sign-treaty-on-black-sea-mine-clearance/

Lithuania delivered on Dec. 15 a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, including millions of cartridges and thousands of short-range anti-tank projectiles, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-delivers-new-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has urged Ukraine’s local authorities to contribute more to mobilization efforts, the Defense Ministry reported on Dec. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-local-authorities-to-step-up-mobilization-efforts/ [there have been indications that Ukr is needing more soldiers recently]

⚡️Three Ukrainian children returned from Russia, occupied territories. https://kyivindependent.com/three-deported-ukrainian-children-were-reunited-with-their-families/

Ukraine and Romania resolved a protracted conflict over the construction of the Deepwater Navigation Route Danube-Black Sea, in which Bucharest accused Kyiv of violating environmental standards, Ukraine's Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets announced on Dec. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraine-romania-solve-20-year-old-dispute-over-danube-black-sea-canal/

⚡️Putin: Russia has no reason or interest to fight https://kyivindependent.com/putin-russia-has-no-reason-or-interest-to-fight-with-nato-directly/ with NATO directly. Putin has made multiple threats in the past toward neighboring states. Russia is currently occupying parts of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is planning a new counteroffensive next year, — Welt. [Der Welt is a solid, objective paper with well researched articles and slightly conservative world-view]

📍The United States has received a list from Ukraine of desired weapons that includes Black Hawk and Apache attack helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighters, missile systems, Abrams tanks, UAVs, and ammunition.

📍Ukraine can still count on 95% of all weapons systems supplied by the West, as they have not yet been used at the front.

📍In the south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold a bridgehead on the left side of the Dnipro River and continue to expand it. It is only 60 kilometers to Crimea. Crimea is a weak point for the Russians.

📍Zaluzhnyi was not a supporter of starting a summer offensive. A rapid breakthrough was not possible, and changing the strategy was a smart move to gain the necessary time.

📍"Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year. One of the starting points could be a bridgehead in Kherson. With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones, Ukraine could provide sufficient support to advance its troops, especially since there are almost no Russian fortifications in the region”.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces received new AQ 400 Scythe attack drones
The drone can carry a payload of up to 32 kg (or up to 70 kg) at a distance of 750 km.
The advantages of the AQ 400 Scythe are low cost and quick assembly. Ukraine has already established mass production of these drones.

The Finnish company VR has taken control of Allegro trains from the joint venture with Russian Railways. The trains will continue to operate between the two countries until March 2022, as reported by Reuters. [apparently The trains had not been running SINCE March 2022, after the invasion.]

Russia will not provide financing for its athletes with neutral status at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. Stanislav Pozdnyakov, President of the Russian Olympic Committee, said that the country would not financially support those who decided to participate in the Olympic Games, abandoning their national symbols.

The Romanian Revolution of 1989 began on December 16th, and by Christmas, it wrapped up with a surprising twist. At least, Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu certainly didn't see it coming, considering his power absolute. So what went wrong? https://t.me/United24media/16436

Another night of terror. One person died as a result of night shelling in the Odesa region—a drone fell on a private residential building in the Odesa region and exploded.

This is how the Kharkiv subway looks like. The underground, which serves as a shelter from Russian missiles, was decorated for the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

Photos of combat operations of the Swedish "Archer" ACS in Ukraine.
45th Separate Artillery Brigade, Donetsk region, December 2023.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian driver dies on the border with Poland
This is the third death of a Ukrainian driver since the beginning of the blockade of Ukrainian-Polish border crossing points.

We wish you a good day!

Christmas tree in Kyiv

Ukrainian Armed Forces have received the first batch of AQ 400 Scythe drones manufactured by the Ukrainian company Terminal Autonomy.
The drone can be launched from a short runway or from a catapult. Specifications: takeoff weight - 100 kg, of which 32 kg is the payload (can be increased to 43 kg), flight range - 750 km.

Please let 2024 be Ukraine’s year. There is so much going to happen over the next 12 months that will shape the future for all of us.

The article from Der Welt is very interesting isn't it. If, if, if it's true - then just possibly 2024 could be Ukraine's year.

But there's so many questions (not least, was this a good idea to publish this article? and is it true that 95% of military hardware is still in reserve?).... and most of all it seems that aircraft and ammunition are needed.

I’m choosing optimism because fuck me I can’t face any more doom and gloom. If nothing else hopefully the UK will be shot of the conservative shit show we’ve been stuck with for so long! Silver linings and all that!

Some interesting, and slightly more positive, reporting in Politico this morning on the issue of Hungary blocking the €50billion aid package for Ukraine.

Looks like the other 26 countries might be willing to set up a separate Ukraine fund without involving Hungary. Essentially this would mean doing it on a bilateral basis rather than as a formal EU fund but still the outcome for Ukraine would be the same.

Good news on sanctions packages too with Austria lifting it's reservations to the 12th package of sanctions, allowing the formal adoption process to be started.

Now we just need the US to get it's act together (looking at you Republicans 😑)

That's good news Igotjelly. One in the eye for Orban and his blocking tactics.

One of the more interesting trends here is that the EU does actually seem to be thinking of uniting more, since the US is proving less than steady. It's a good thing - but I hope the EU hurries up, because as todays ISW report points out Putin has NATO very firmly in his sights to dismantle it.

There are even murmurings that Hungary's voting rights might be suspended, though nothing solid and it isn't reliable.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Senator: Congress 'not anywhere close' to deal on Ukraine aid.
"We’re not anywhere close to a deal. It’ll go into next year," Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Dec. 17. https://kyivindependent.com/senator-congress-not-anywhere-close-to-deal-on-ukraine-aid/

Ukraine war latest: Military says Russia committing more reserves in attempt to capture Kupiansk
Russia is ramping up efforts to capture Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, moving reserves of assault battalions to the area to compensate for heavy losses.
Military skirmishes were reported near Russia’s Terebreno village on the border with Ukraine.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has urged Ukraine’s local authorities to contribute more to mobilization efforts. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-december-17/

⚡️Putin: New NATO member Finland didn't have problems before, but now it will https://kyivindependent.com/putin-new-nato-member-finland-didnt-have-problems-before-but-now-it-will/

⚡️Security Service launches investigation after recording device found https://kyivindependent.com/security-service-launches-investigation-after-recording-device-found-in-zalyzhnyis-new-office/ in Zaluzhnyi's new office.
The Security Service of Ukraine has issued a statement confirming the discovery of a recording device in a location potentially used by Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
According to Ukrainska Pravda, the device was uncovered during a routine inspection of new premises intended for use by the commander-in-chief.

⚡️Russia loads new intercontinental ballistic missile into silo in Kaluga Oblast.
The RS-24 Yars missile system carries multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV), enabling it to deliver several nuclear warheads to different targets. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-loads-new-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-into-silo-in-kaluga-oblast/

⚡️Media: Latvia may deport more than 1,000 Russians for failing to meet residence requirements. https://kyivindependent.com/media-latvia-may-deport-more-than-1-000-russians/

⚡️IMF chief: Ukraine's economy depends on continued aid.
Ukraine's economy could likely withstand a funding delay of "a couple of months," but a longer gap would put the nation's path to economic recovery at serious risk, IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva said. https://kyivindependent.com/imf-chief-ukraines-economy-depends-on-continued-aid/

⚡️2,150 trucks still stuck on Polish border https://kyivindependent.com/2-150-trucks-still-stuck-on-poland-border/

⚡️Polish farmers to join blockade on Ukrainian border.
Polish farmers association United Village will join the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing at 2:30 p.m. local time on Dec. 18, protest organizer Rafal Mekler said late in the evening on Dec. 17. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-to-join-border-blockade/

⚡️Vucic's party claims https://kyivindependent.com/serbian-president-vucics-party-claims-victory-in-parliamentary-elections/ victory in Serbian parliamentary elections.
Vucic and the SNS party have been in power for almost a decade and have been criticized for causing democratic backsliding in the country. There were allegations of voting irregularities in the Dec. 17 election.

⚡️Military Intelligence confirms incursion into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.
Military skirmishes were reported near Russia’s Terebreno village on the border with Ukraine, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence wrote on Dec. 17. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-confirms-incursion-into-russias-belgorod-oblast/

⚡️Air Force: Russian air defense downs its own Su-25 jet. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-russian-air-defense-downs-its-own-su-25-jet/

⚡️National Resistance Center: Russia increases special forces in occupied Kherson Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-increases-special-forces-in-occupied-kherson-oblast/

⚡️ General Staff: 928 mines neutralized in 3 oblasts over past week. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-928-mines-neutralized-across-three-oblasts-over-past-week/

⚡️Council member who detonated grenades in government building is charged with terrorism detained without bail. https://kyivindependent.com/council-member-who-detonated-grenades-in-government-building-is-charged-with-terrorism-detained-without-bail/ On Dec. 15, he allegedly detonated three grenades inside a crowded room in a local government building in the western Zakarpattia Oblast, killing one and injuring 22.

⚡️North Korea fires short-range ballistic missile into sea. https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-fires-short-range-ballistic-missile-into-sea/

⚡️UPDATE: North Korea launches second missile, firing long-range weapon into sea. https://kyivindependent.com/update-north-korea-launches-second-missile-firing-long-range-weapon-into-sea/