Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 According to the Financial Times, EU leaders are contemplating the potential withdrawal of Hungary's voting rights. This move aims to facilitate the approval of a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine without Hungary's participation.
Reports suggest that certain officials in Brussels advocate for initiating penalty measures as per Article 7 of the 2007 Treaty on European Union due to alleged violations of the rule of law. This procedure could potentially result in the suspension of the state's voting privileges within the EU. [Do it]

The Security Service of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully attacked an airfield in the Rostov region — the Interlocutor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the security forces.
[Ru denied anything got through but...] "in reality the SBU and the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflicted significant damage on the enemy's equipment."
The 559th bomber aviation regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces is located there.
It is known that there were up to 20 SU-34 aircraft, three radar stations and other equipment at the airport at the time of the attack

"Gazprom" stated that the volume of gas supplies to China through the "Power of Siberia" pipeline increased to a new daily maximum, — Bloomberg.
The Russian Ministry of Energy said that this year they exported 22 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to China, and next year the volume will increase to 30 billion.

Australia will expand its commitment to training recruits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of the Kudu operation in 2024, — General Staff
The number of instructors will increase from approximately 70 to 90
Australia's role will be expanded to include a junior commander and leader training program that will focus on areas such as combat skills, including both urban and trench warfare, combat first aid, explosives hazards and marksmanship skills.

Imagine Dragons soloist Dan Reynolds kissed the flag of Ukraine during the concert.
Reynolds noticed the flag in the hands of a fan in the fan zone and asked to give it to him. The frontman shouted: "Glory to Ukraine!" and kissed the flag.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate announce positive progress in border security talks, a prerequisite for approving aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but no timeline for final agreement - The Hill https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4364855-lawmakers-encouraged-by-border-security-talks-but-timing-of-deal-uncertain/

Poland proposes https://www.rmf24.pl/tylko-w-rmf24/rozmowa/news-michal-kolodziejczak-o-wejsciu-ukrainy-do-ue-musimy-zabezpie,nId,7211780#crp_state=1** to block Ukrainian agricultural exports for 20 years after Ukraine joins the EU
"Ukraine’s accession to the EU is not beneficial for Polish farmers, we must protect our interests and say that agricultural products from Ukraine should not enter Poland for, for example, 20 years after Ukraine’s accession to the EU," said Deputy Minister of Agriculture Michał Kołodziejczak in Saturday in an interview with RMF. [is that legal?!]

A Russian Su-34 damaged by shrapnel at the Morozovsk airfield near Rostov

Holidays are coming!
HIMARS is preparing gifts for the occupiers!

International aid to Ukraine has dropped to record lows in recent months, to less than $1 billion monthly.

In other news, the EU is starting some proceedings against the Toxic Muskulinity.

AT ThierryBreton

Today we open formal infringement proceedings against@X

:Suspected breach of obligations to counter #IllegalContent and #Disinformation
Suspected breach of #Transparency obligations
Suspected #DeceptiveDesign of user interface

Musk has very notably worked against the pro-Ukraine faction on Twitter, changing the algorithm so the reach is reduced and quite literally arranging for posts that are critical of him to have Likes removed, probably to the tune of hundreds of thousands.

It seems the EU focus will be on Twitter and its handling of the Israeli/Hamas conflict https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/1218/1422601-eu-opens-formal-infringement-proceedings-against-x/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Finland and the wider NATO alliance in a statement ostensibly meant to dismiss concerns about the threat Russia poses to NATO.
• Putin’s reassurances about his peaceful intentions toward NATO ring hollow in the context of the threats he and Kremlin pundits have recently been making against NATO member states.
• Putin has been seeking to curtail and weaken NATO for two decades and continually demands changes to the alliance that would amount to dismantling it.
• Putin’s interview indicated that he continues to perceive the West as weak, contrasting with his confidence in the growth of Russia’s power over the past two decades.
• Putin is increasingly invoking a purposefully broad, vague, and pseudo-realist conception of Russian sovereignty in an effort to justify Russian goals to impose Putin’s will in Ukraine and beyond.
• Putin continues to express a world view in which Russia must impose its will without any compromise or face existential consequences.
• The Kremlin's repeated rhetoric about its hostile intent towards NATO, coupled with Russia’s potential future military capabilities in the event of Russian victory in Ukraine, poses a credible - and costly - threat to Western security.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 16 to 17.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia on December 17 and advanced in some areas.
• Relatives of Russian mobilized personnel continue to appeal directly to high-ranking Russian military and political officials about demobilization and the return of their relatives from Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues attempts to expand political infrastructure in occupied Ukraine in an effort to further integrate occupied territories into Russia.

Thanks Blueshoes!

A Major of the GRU and senior instructor of the Wagner gang, colonel and head of the 4th Department of Special Operations of the Prosecutor General's Office flew to Amsterdam and requested political asylum in the Netherlands.

He is ready to appear before the Ministry of Internal Affairs in The Hague and testify against V. Surkov, A. Borodai, the commander of the 10th brigade of the Special Forces of the General Military Service of Ukraine (military unit 51532),

Major General S. Svyd (call sign "Ryazan", curator of "Reduta" and " Wagner"), as well as other high-ranking Orks from the FSB and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, who oversaw special operations on the territory of Ukraine in 2014-2015. and in 2022

The question is ... Why.

Wut?

Shall await developments with interest...

Three stories of Russians who deserted:

https://theins.info/en/confession/267506

Apologies it took me so long to respond to this, @Natsku. No one in the Democratic party wants to challenge him because as long as Biden wants to run, it would be seen as an act of disloyalty. I hope some have gently suggested to Biden that running again is not in his best interests or the party's, but if they have, it's had no effect.

That's a real shame that no one has the guts to put what's best for the party (and the country if Trump ends up being the opposition) before trying not to look disloyal and just stop it. Biden I guess isn't aware enough of how bad his condition is to decide for himself to step down.

I am not aware of how bad Biden's condition is. To me he sounds sane, and seems to be reasonably spry; he has done a pretty good job so far.

Whilst I suspect Biden is going through the natural cognitive decline of a man his age I do often think his speech, and the impact of his speech impediment make it sound worse than it is.

At least Biden knows what year it is. Trump appears pretty unsure about that.

Biden is appearing on camera less and less, as time goes on. Some of it are ordinary gaffes, which he's been prone to for years. More seriously, he seems to be losing his filters, and saying whatever pops into his head, which is typical for a man his age. There have been some fairly serious diplomatic effects.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/18/biden-foreign-policy-xi-00127892

And the press are onto it like piranha on a lump of liver, while at the same time they don't report the amazingly worse gaffes of Trump, and his complete lack of control over what he says (and inability to form a complete sentence coherently). Why is this?

Perhaps it is that "mad old man is mad" isn't news, whereas "old man who has been getting on with the job perfectly well has made a not-very-important mistake" is? Mind you, having looked at the "gaffes", I think what's going on there is that Biden has told the truth as he sees it, and people are so used to Trump telling lies every time that he opens his mouth, truth looks kinda weird and dangerous....

That's common with the elderly. They've spent years adjusting to their decline, so they don't notice it. It just seems normal to them. And they don't want to admit they're writing the last chapter. He feels fine, for a man his age.

The problem is that it's one of the most demanding jobs on the planet and he's looking at a challenging reelection campaign.

I think a lot of it depends on who owns the media network and their affiliations.

And the press are onto it like piranha on a lump of liver, while at the same time they don't report the amazingly worse gaffes of Trump, and his complete lack of control over what he says (and inability to form a complete sentence coherently). Why is this?

They do get reported, but not as often. It's because no one expects sanity from Trump. His biggest challenge with the media is that he needs to continually amp up the level of crazy to get noticed.

Convince enough people that Trump is normal (for Trump) while Biden is gaga, and that's Trump with another term in the White House. Bye bye Ukraine, and bye bye world. I think maybe spreading the alarmist "Biden is gaga" narrative might not be a good idea in the long run. Let's try for frequent repetition of "Trump has dementia, just like his daddy" instead.

Trump's cognitive issues definitely need more focus, he is clearly in decline as well but Biden's issues shouldn't be hidden either, it'll just lead to distrust, he should be discouraged (forced if necessary) from running and someone in good health should run against Trump instead.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Commander: https://kyivindependent.com/commander-ukrainian-military-scales-down-some-operations-over-foreign-aid-shortages/
Ukrainian forces face shortages of artillery shells and have to scale down some military operations due to a decrease in foreign aid, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said in a comment for Reuters on Dec. 18.

⚡️ Pentagon: Funds to replenish Ukraine military aid to run out on Dec. 30. https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-warns-funds-to-replenish-military-aid-for-ukraine-to-run-out-by-dec-30/

⚡️General Staff confirms recording devices discovered in offices used by Zaluzhnyi, staff.
Recording devices were found in offices used by Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and his staff, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Dec. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-recording-devices-discovered-in-offices-used-by-zaluzhnyi-staff/

⚡️Zaluzhnyi: Unlikely that secrets were discussed in room with recording device. https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-unlikely-secrets-were-discussed-in-room-with-recording-device/

⚡️ US, Finland sign defense cooperation deal. https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-gain-access-to-4-finnish-air-bases-1-naval-base-under-new-defense-deal/

EU to discuss $55 billion for Ukraine on Feb. 1.
The European Council will hold a special summit on Feb. 1, where the EU leaders will discuss the four-year 50-billion-euro ($55 billion) funding package for Ukraine, European Council President Charles Michel said on Dec. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-discuss-55-billion-for-ukraine-on-feb-1/

⚡️ Sweden, Denmark plan to jointly supply additional CV90 vehicles to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-denmark-plan-to-jointly-supply-additional-cv90-vehicles-to-ukraine/

⚡️ EU adopts 12th package of Russia sanctions. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-officially-adopts-12th-package-of-russia-sanctions/ The newly adopted measures include a ban on Russian diamonds, a crackdown on Russia's means to acquire military-use goods, tighter controls over the $60-per-barrel oil price cap, and further steps targeting Moscow's revenue amid the all-out war.

️ Security experts appeal to US Congress to approve Ukraine aid bill.
Over 40 members of the Alphen Group, an international association of security experts, appealed to U.S. Congress to approve the funding request that includes aid for Ukraine in a letter published on the organization's website on Dec. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/over-40-us-security-experts-appeal-to-congress-to-approve-ukraine-aid/

⚡️Germany signs 'historic' agreement https://kyivindependent.com/germany-signs-agreement-on-historic-permanent-deployment-of-german-troops-in-lithuania/ on permanent troop deployment in Lithuania. The deployment of a brigade, consisting of close to 5,000 soldiers, will begin in 2024 and reach full strength in 2027.

Umerov unveils new procurement agency https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-launches-new-procurement-agency/ as part of anti-corruption efforts.
The agency is responsible for all non-military purchases, such as food, fuel, or clothes, some of which became the center of two corruption scandals under the Defense Ministry's previous leadership.

⚡️ Border Guard: Polish protesters resume blockade at Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing. https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-polish-protesters-resume-blockade-at-dorohusk-yahodin-crossing/

⚡️Telegraph: UK to sign 10-year pact https://kyivindependent.com/telegraph-uk-to-sign-mou-on-long-term-naval-security-commitments-for-ukraine/ on naval security commitments for Ukraine.

⚡️Minister: Ukraine-EU export increased (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-transportation-of-goods-to-and-from-ukraine-increased-more-than-40-since-permit-system-liberalized/) by over 40% since permit system liberalized.

⚡️Moldovan PM: Putin's move to simplify citizenship for Moldovans an attempt to gather 'cannon fodder'. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-transportation-of-goods-to-and-from-ukraine-increased-more-than-40-since-permit-system-liberalized/

⚡️Reuters: Trump would appoint loyalists to influence US foreign policy regarding China, NATO, Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-trump-would-appoint-loyalists-to-influence-us-foreign-policy-regarding-china-nato-ukraine/

⚡️Poll: Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky declines to 62%; trust in military, Zaluzhnyi remains high. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-ukrainians-trust-in-zelensky-declines-trust-in-zaluzhnyi-is-high/
Trust in Zelensky declined to 62%, compared to 84% in December 2022. At the same, the percentage of those who said they do not trust Zelensky increased from 5% in December 2022 to 18% in the most recent poll.

⚡️Russia seizes properties belonging to 77 individuals, companies in occupied Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/russia-seizes-properties-belonging-to-77-individuals-companies-in-occupied-crimea/

⚡️SBU detains spy accused of directing Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-accused-spy-who-allegedly-directed-russian-fire-at-zaporizhzhia-resulting-in-deaths/ The man was allegedly remotely recruited by the FSB in October and subsequently formed his own networks of informants to scour Zaporizhzhia in search of the positions of Ukrainian troops and defenses.

⚡️Russian court sentences former Wagner member to almost 7 years in prison for shooting at police. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-former-wagner-member-to-almost-7-years-in-prison-for-shooting-at-police/

⚡️Finnish court orders https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-court-orders-russian-neo-nazi-fighter-into-custody-awaiting-potential-war-crimes-charges/ Russian neo-Nazi fighter into custody, awaiting potential war crimes charges.

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-39-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ identities of over 39,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

Personnel losses of over 1000 a day have become normal now.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The German defense concern Rheinmetall has secured another order from Ukraine for the manufacturing and delivery of artillery shells, valued in the high hundreds of millions of euros. The scheduled delivery of the ammunition is set for 2025.

The Russian forces possess sufficient kamikaze drones enabling them to launch daily attacks on Ukraine from various directions.
The spokesperson noted the recent utilization of air-launched missiles like Kh-101 and Kh-555, particularly as the colder seasons approach.

Denmark and Sweden have agreed to acquire additional CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine.
Denmark will initially provide a financial contribution of 1.8 billion Danish kroner (approximately $263.6 million), while Sweden will assist in procurement under the agreement signed between the Swedish Defense Technology Agency (FMV) and Ukraine earlier in July this year. The specific quantity of machines allocated to Ukraine is yet to be determined. Sweden had previously transferred 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

President Biden is prepared to negotiate with Republicans to overcome the deadlock in providing aid to Ukraine.
White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby mentioned that discussions on this matter have occurred over the weekend, stressing the urgency of reaching agreements as funds for security assistance to Ukraine are depleting.

Putin managed to turn the withdrawal of Western companies from the Russian market into a "golden bottom" - if companies want to leave the Russian Federation, the Russian dictator sets conditions "that are beneficial to his government, his elites and his war", — NYT.
According to the publication, over the past year these exits brought at least 1.25 billion dollars to the Russian military treasury

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the activities of the private military company Wagner in Africa could have brought about $2.5 billion to the Russian budget. In particular, the income of $114 million per month was provided by gold mined on the continent under their control — The Blood Gold analytical center.

Russia is attempting to seize 37 more civilian airplanes. They may be declared stolen and taken into custody in the coming days, — Russian media.
The reason is litigation in the High Court of Ireland.
Accordingly, the fleet of aircraft available for flights abroad will be reduced — this may happen after December 20.

The occupiers will not seize Avdiivka even before the presidential elections in Russia, — Head of the City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash.

Rolls-Royce is reportedly in discussions with Ukraine regarding the establishment of mini-nuclear power plants within the country, as detailed by The Daily Telegraph.
Experts are examining the feasibility of converting up to eight existing coal power plants, including two situated in temporarily occupied territory, into installations for the construction of small reactors by the 2030s.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Hungary may he stripped of its right to vote in order to conclude an agreement on the allocation of funds to Ukraine, — Financial Times.
According to FT, some EU officials are considering reactivating the so-called Article 7 punishment procedure for rule of law breaches, which can result in the suspension of voting rights.
“It can be blocked by another member state, but a change of government in Poland means Hungary no longer has a guaranteed protector. Still, multiple countries are nervous about using what is essentially the EU’s biggest weapon against a member state,” the article states.

🇺🇸🇫🇮 The United States will be able to train its troops in Finland and deploy military equipment, but only temporarily. This is provided for in the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) between the countries.
The Pentagon gained access to 15 Finnish military bases, including a warehouse area near the railroad leading to the border with Russia.

Former Russian intelligence colonel Igor Salikov, 60, who was involved in Russia's aggression against Ukraine, has left for the Netherlands and announced his willingness to testify at the International Criminal Court.
He claims that he can give valuable testimony to the court in The Hague about Russia's war crimes and how decisions were made to commit them.

🇧🇬Bulgaria bans all Russian oil processing by 1 March 2024, three months ahead of schedule.
Bulgaria is ending the exemption from the EU ban on Russian oil imports that the European Commission granted to Sofia in 2022.

Putin said he would not give up the so-called goals of the war against Ukraine.
The Russian dictator also complained that the West "transmits real-time intelligence and weapons to the enemy" and wages a hybrid war against Russia.

Russian citizens have a question

Trump has been banned from holding office by the state of Colorado and cannot be listed on the primary ballot paper.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/19/donald-trump-colorado-ban-us-election-2024-supreme-court/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-19-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly invoking the Kremlin's pre-invasion pseudo-historical rhetoric to cast himself as a modern Russian tsar and framing the invasion of Ukraine as a historically justified imperial reconquest.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated during the Russian MoD Collegium on December 19 that the Russian MoD will prioritize continuing the war in Ukraine and training newly formed units and formations in 2024, while also reiterating threats against Finland and the wider NATO alliance.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an end-of-the-year press conference on December 19 during which he commented on Russia’s continued unwillingness to negotiate, his confidence in future Western aid provisions, Ukrainian domestic weapons production, and possible future mobilization in Ukraine.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin discussed Russian and Chinese economic cooperation and bilateral relations with Chinese Premier Li Quang in Beijing on December 19.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances northeast of Kupyansk, north of Bakhmut, and southwest of Avdiivka, and continued positional meeting engagements along the entire line of contact.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that the Russian military intends to recruit up to 745,000 contract personnel by the end of 2024 at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium on December 19.
• Russian authorities continued attempts to use military conscription in occupied Ukraine to augment force generation efforts and legitimize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.