Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Er....Cough cough....May I refer the team back to the previous post I made late last night :

"Seems to have been announced by Grant Shapps so it might be a case of waiting a day or two to see what has really been offered and when."

It's Shapps, he has lots of previous......

Russia lost a plane, though there were claims floating around that it was an own goal (as indeed happened once to Ukraine early on :( )

Still easily done, even with all the electronic gizmo's to aid identification available in this day and age.

I havent heard anything about France, Spain, Portugal upping their military spending.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230713-french-mps-approve-huge-boost-in-military-spending-spurred-by-ukraine-war

HTH

ty!

@notimagain
That is a significant boost. I will the UK would come out stronger on defence spending.

UK defence spending to increase to 2.5% of GDP when conditions allow~ Shapps at consevative Party Conference

The man honestly shouldn’t be anywhere near anything important 😡

"Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted today that the residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed a year ago “made their choice—to be with their Fatherland”."

I find it interesting that it always used to be "Holy Mother Russia" when I was a child and people were talking about pre-soviet time. Just "Mother Russia" for the Soviets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personification_of_Russia

Now Putin talks of the place as the Fatherland, which is fair enough because there is a word for that in Russian, but even so... I am reminded of the other European country which called itself the Fatherland and had an originally-elected dictator who invaded the neighbouring countries because he wanted to rule an empire.

If anyone has the slightest interest at this point, the nutters will try to sack McCarthy as speaker tomorrow for working with the Democrats to keep the government open. There is a small chance it won't work if some Democrats vote "present", lowering the number of votes he needs to get a majority.

If it works, they're going to feel like the dog who chased after the car and caught it.

https://nypost.com/2023/10/01/matt-gaetz-i-do-intend-to-file-motion-to-oust-mccarthy/

What do you make of McCarthy, @MissConductUS ?

Overall, I like him. He brokered a budget deal with the Biden Administration in January that was supposed to avoid this mess, but that’s why the nutters are so angry at him. Now he’s sacrificed his leadership position to do the right thing and keep the government open. He has also been quietly supportive of Ukraine, though he was less public about it avoid irritating the isolationists.

I’m sure he has his faults too, but I’ve certainly seen worse politicians.

Huh, thank you. Most of what I'd heard was that he was not too good, but it sounds like he's been mostly quietly effective?

On a completely different note.

TLDR: Caution advised in moving Twitter chats onto other chat apps like Google Chat, Telegram, Whatsapp, Viber etc.

Suddenly in about 6 days Ive had 3 'Ukrainians' on Twitter sending me PMs chatting, and then suggesting we talk on Telegram/Viber/Google Chat. It seemed odd, and so did their way of talking - there seemed something oddly impersonal about it and it wasn't a language issue, plus when I said No they kept pushing, so I checked it out with my IT security partner.

It seems that sometimes iffy actors can try to get you to create 'contact maps'. Most people have several communication apps on their phones - Teams, Telegram, Whatsapp etc - and unless you've locked your security down tight for each app, an unpleasant actor can sometimes triangulate your region, location and even name through these 'contact maps'.

It may be completely ridiculous to be slightly paranoid. But all the same, if someone tries to get you to use other chat programs, maybe think twice.

Oh. Apparently it's very common. :D

Sorry for the late reply, I was catching up on 4 pages, lots to digest.

To answer your question Ducks, they do indeed claim it’s “Russia’s” but they do not specifically name it, there is nothing in the text below to say this image they used is the Patriot.

Strange history book in black and white. Can’t they afford colour images in their history books?

I thought the same. Got question marks if this one is real or not.

Some interesting reporting in Politico's Brussel's Playbook roundup this morning:

• EU Foreign ministers are meeting in Kyiv today. The fact that the Council are travelling to Ukraine is a key sign of the intention to follow through on Ukrainian accession to the bloc.

• On the agenda is the €500m European Peace Facility, the pot that finances weapons to Ukraine. Hungary has been blocking the next instalment but Kyiv says that a deal has been reached to unblock it. Essentially Hungary had blocked it as a way of blackmailing Kyiv into removing the national Hungarian Bank from a list of war sponsors. The deal is understood to include the bank changing some of its operations and in exchange Kyiv will remove it from the list.

• Kuleba was asked if he/Ukraine were worried about the recent Slovakian and imminent Polish elections. His response was "We are not afraid of it. We take it as a reality … I have no doubt that despite sometimes overheated campaign discussions and emotions … the people of both countries understand that the security of Ukraine is also their security, and none of them wants to live with Russia by their side.”

Absolutely no idea why the formatting of the spaces is so big.... didn't look like that before I posted.

If anyone needed any more evidence that Elon Musk is a complete dick:

The world’s richest man has continued his campaign against Kyiv, this time by using a fake picture of President Zelensky to mock Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

x.com/kyivpost/status/1708735353450852679?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

What ... a ... fucking ... PoS

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times.
• The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine.
• The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government.
• ISW will revise its assessment about the prospects for the Wagner Group to reemerge an as effective military organization if the Wagner Group successfully reconstitutes as a large, unitary organization under Rosgvardia, the Russian MoD, or a similar organization.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 30 to October 1.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially announced the beginning of its regular fall 2023 conscription cycle on October 1.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Although a stopgap funding bill to prevent a U.S. government shutdown was passed on Sept. 30 without any provisions for aid for Ukraine, President's Office Head Andriy Yermak said on Oct 1 that it should not be construed as a change in U.S. support for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-no-changes-in-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

⚡️ EU foreign ministers convene in Kyiv.
https://kyivindependent.com/eu-foreign-ministers-convene-in-kyiv/ Foreign ministers of the European Union countries are convening in Kyiv for the first-ever meeting of all 27 member states outside the EU, the bloc's chief diplomat Josep Borrell announced on Oct. 2.

⚡️Media: Drones https://kyivindependent.com/ghost/#/editor/post/6519671b2e2a1871a2504a25 strike Russian facilities in Sochi, Smolensk.
Ukrainian drones successfully struck a helicopter base in Sochi and an aircraft factory in Smolensk on Oct. 1, according to reports by Russian Telegram channels and Ukrainska Pravda.

The Oct. 1 drone strikes on Smolensk caused significant damage to the Smolensk Aviation Plant, the press service of the Ukrainian military intelligence said on Oct. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-oct-1-drone-strikes-in-smolensk-damaged-missile-plant-production-disrupted/

⚡️Polish PM: Poland a better ally https://kyivindependent.com/polish-pm-poland-a-better-ally-to-ukraine-than-germany/ to Ukraine than Germany.
Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned Ukraine against establishing a close alliance with Germany in a speech at a political convention on Oct. 1, the Polish news outlet Dziennik Gazeta Prawna reported.

⚡️Tens of thousands gather https://kyivindependent.com/tens-of-thousands-gather-for-opposition-march-in-warsaw-ahead-upcoming-parliamentary-elections/ for opposition march in Warsaw ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections.
The streets of Poland's capital Warsaw were filled with demonstrators on Oct. 1 for an opposition rally ahead of the country's upcoming parliamentary election set to be held on Oct. 15.

⚡️ Borrell: EU support for Ukraine not dependent https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-eu-support-for-ukraine-not-dependent-on-short-term-battlefield-advances/ on short-term battlefield developments.
"Our support does not depend on the advances of one day. It's permanent, structured support because we are facing an existential threat for Europe," Borrell said.

⚡️ Borrell in Kyiv: EU support for Ukraine has reached 85 billion euros https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-eu-support-for-war-torn-ukraine-reached-85-billion-euros/ This includes 25 billion euros in military aid and 60 billion euros in humanitarian aid

⚡️Sunak: No plans to send British troops https://kyivindependent.com/sunak-no-plans-to-send-british-troops-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 5 civilians, injure 15 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-19/ over past day.

A new high - 48! artillery losses. More personnel losses too, and 15 tanks.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 2
■air &artillery strikes above average
■ Troop losses rising & triple-digit equipment losses
■ Record artillery losses
■ MLRS, air defence systems, tanks, special equipment & vehicles also above 7-day average

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1708199131460591626 Defence of Ukraine, video "It won't end with us unless we end it"

Musk is dangerous and needs the brakes put on him pronto.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Following a meeting with Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, announced that the European Union is in the process of preparing long-term security commitments for Ukraine.

A meeting of EU foreign ministers will take place today in Kyiv.

🌾 Ministers of agriculture of Poland and Lithuania will meet on Tuesday to discuss cooperation on the transit of Ukrainian grain, — RMF FM.

Gas production in Russia has reportedly fallen to levels not seen since the 1970s, according to Newsweek. Gazprom's report for the first half of 2023 indicates that gas production amounted to 179.45 billion cubic meters. Gas supplies, both domestically and to foreign markets, have decreased by 26.5% compared to the same period last year.

Microsoft has ceased renewing licenses for Russian companies as of today, as reported by Telecom Daily. Journalists discovered from a letter from Microsoft's technical support that the company can no longer accept payments via bank transfer to a local bank account for services in Russia, making it impossible for Russians to renew existing subscriptions.
Microsoft stated that this decision is a response to Western sanctions against the Russian Federation. The company also highlighted that sales of new products and services in Russia, along with various other aspects of its business, have been suspended.

🚢 The Ukrainian grain corridor has shown its capability to receive and discharge up to 8 vessels per day.
This represents an increase in capacity compared to the previous operation of the grain corridor in October 2022 when 5 vessels per day were accommodated in the ports of Odesa, when during its relatively efficient operation as agreed with Russia. Ukraine's ability to handle a greater number of vessels on its own demonstrates its capacity to provide a safe and efficient route for grain exports. [of course, then Russia guarenteed it wouldn't fire on these ships]

The first underground school in Ukraine is set to be built in Kharkiv, as announced by the city's mayor, Terekhov.
Moldova has decided to cease purchasing Russian gas, according to Minister of Energy Viktor Parlikov. He specified that this decision applies to the areas of the country not under Russian occupation.
However, Transnistria will continue to receive Russian gas. Plans are being developed for gas delivery to Transnistria after the expiration of gas transit agreements with Russia and Ukraine.

Military pilots continue to flee Russia.
Under the pretext of a vacation, the pilot of the Le Havre aviation squadron of the Russian Guard named Gavrychenko went on vacation to Dubai with his family.
In the UAE, he went directly to the American embassy, where, having declared his unwillingness to fight against Ukraine and his readiness to cooperate with the American special services, the FSB conducted an active investigation into the details of the escape of pilot Gavrychenko.