Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Thanks again. So Ukraine can still have help for the time being; phew.

I'm pleased to be able to help.

With luck the crazy faction will now hold a meeting somewhere (with cake and indoor fireworks) to celebrate having royally fscked everyone over, and the building they are in will be destroyed by a meteorite, leaving no survivors. Cue several by-elections (whatever you call them in the USA: I am too tired to think straight) and a clear indication that God was not on their side.

That would have to be one honking giant meteor. If a congressional representative dies in office, the governor of the state they represented appoints a replacement until the next scheduled election. This is really my day to teach American civics, innit?

Ukrainian pilots arrived in Texas on Friday for English language assessment and training. They'll move on to a USAF flight training base in Arizona as they pass the language proficiency tests.

To fly F-16s, Ukrainian pilots need English, and they're in San Antonio to learn it - Ukrainian flight crews will study at the Defense Language Institute at Lackland AFB. Then they'll go to Arizona for flight training.

I'm not slating the US here (they have provided so much already) but my understanding is extra aid for Ukraine was blocked by Republicans and pulling extra aid is why its got over the line (subgect to senate approval).

Its not so much a worry as to immediate effects but the concern post US elections.

Everyone keeps saying there is strong cross party support for Ukraine but the issue of aid took the budget to the wire and passed to the detrement of Ukraine.

Im sure you can understand this is of concern to many.

Support for Ukraine is certainly less solid than it was a year ago. I'm concerned about it as well.

This particular situation came down to the wire because Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republicans in the House, agreed to a provision in the rules and allows him to be removed very easily by the extremists. They threatened to do so if he brought forward a CR with the Democrats. He did so anyway, and it passed easily. He may well lose his job next week as a result.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/politics/mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-vote-to-oust-speaker/index.html

One problem is that if they make good on the threat to remove him, no one else will want the job. One way or another, a new balance of power will emerge and I don't think it will allow the fringe elements to have so much influence.

Europe doesn't have perfectly clean hands here, either. One reason there is weakening resolve in the US is because those who oppose it can quite correctly point to the fact that Europe has collectively allowed their militaries and military-industrial bases to atrophy since the end of the Cold War. It was quite irresponsible for Europe to allow itself to become so overwhelmingly reliant on the US to deal with a conflict like this one.

Looks like exit polls on Slovakia were wrong 😭 Fico has indeed won.

Oh shit

@MissConductUS as I said im not slating the US and indeed Europe has its own set of problems that just got a whole lot worse.

Keep an eye on Kosovo. Tensions have been building for months.

Serbia has sent military to the border. The US has said to them to shift it. The UK has just sent a bunch of troops to Kosovo as part of NATO's presence there.

I have to say that decisions to reduce aid to Ukraine may well be connected to these tensions and NATO having run reserves low.

It was always known that it was unsustainable to keep sending weapons at the rate NATO countries were. We know for example there is a finite supply of shadow storm missiles that are predicted to run out sometime between October and February. Then what?

From the very start of the war it was always stated that we couldn't produce weapons at the rate they were being used. There were talks to up production - and by all accounts Ukraine themselves have done a lot to try and do this themselves.

However I do wonder just how much work the West really has done on this themselves. There's not been a budget increase in defence for the UK. Therefore they aren't buying significantly more weapons. We've just supplied the stocks we already had in a warehouse for years.

Some big questions like ahead on this.

Reports of a breakthrough near Verbove also seem to have gone very quiet which does really trouble me. It looks like they hold half the village but that's it. And still begs major questions about how far they can push things there.

There have, very quietly, been announcements of increased production. Some of them are external countries helping Ukraine.

I havent heard anything about France, Spain, Portugal upping their military spending. Germany is looking at its military stocks in blank horror at how bad everything is. But there were good historical reasons why Germany was not very keen on its military. One of the things this war has done is made it politically more feasible for Germany to sharpen up.

Poland is one to watch here though. Their military spending is going up massively. Biggest land army in Europe soon, iirc (apart from Ukraine).

@MissConductUS the extra aid for Ukraine was dropped - do you think they will try to get it through again?

@RedToothBrush Reports of a breakthrough near Verbove Russia has been bringing up a lot of troops to try to contain the Ukrainians here.

@RedToothBrush I understand it there has been no updates on the situation around Verbove for 3 days, not even on deepstatemaps which is usually very up to date. It suggests a complete info blackout from the Ukrainians.

The other major source of info is Russian milbloggers which have had a lot of pressure put on them by the Kremlin not to report negative news.

Im hoping in this case that no news is very good news.

Its been reported everywhere that Grant Shapps has been in talks with military chiefs about UK military training of Ukrainians being conducted in Ukraine.

Also that he's had talks with Zelenski about the Royal Navy protecting merchant shipping in the grain corridor.

@MissConductUSthe extra aid for Ukraine was dropped - do you think they will try to get it through again?

Leaders of both parties have committed to passing it as a separate bill, possibly as soon as next week. It was put aside to make it easier to get something passed that would avoid a government shutdown. Now that the extremists have had their bluff called about removing Kevin McCarthy as the Republican leader in the House, which they may still do, they've lost much of their leverage.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2023/09/30/ditching-ukraine-aid-u-s-house-in-bipartisan-vote-passes-bill-to-avert-shutdown/

Leaders of both parties have committed to passing it as a separate bill, possibly as soon as next week.

GREAT. Thanks for explaining it all!

Interesting UK MoD thing today. When you combine the corruption, economic woes and increased def spending, Russia can't be doing well financially.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.
• The Kremlin has seemingly not yet clarified what Ukrainian territories it claims that Russia has annexed, leading to continued confusion among Russian government and occupation officials a year after the illegal annexation of occupied territories.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes primarily targeting Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of September 29 to 30.
• Russian milbloggers claimed on September 30 that the Russian military command removed the commander of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade following recent outrage from milbloggers about the brigade’s command.
• An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly categorizing Russian internet user data in an effort to disseminate tailored information to specific domestic populations as part of a wider attempt to control the Russian information space.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and marginally advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian authorities have started to conscript citizens in occupied Ukraine who have Russian passports.
• Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia in order to assimilate Ukrainian children into Russian culture.

@RedToothBrush from the ISW A fringe Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces implicitly recanted claims from September 24 that Ukrainian forces occupy half of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[3] The fringe milblogger claimed on September 29 that elements of the 7th Guards VDV Division still hold Verbove despite suffering losses.

So heaven knows what's going on. The milbloggers have been stamped on and post-Girkin have self-censored, so he might have recanted or it might be true. Who knows. Although, have you found other sources?

Fuck! Another win for Putin. What is wrong with these people, I despair.

My understaing is that he got more than any other party but still only about a quarter of the seats, so there is still hope that he won't be able to get a working majority.

But this was what I was worrying about last month. It would have been nice not to have been right to worry!

Yes my understanding is the same as yours, think it’ll be a coalition, depends who they choose to get into bed with 😩

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️US House of Representatives passes funding bill https://kyivindependent.com/us-house-of-representatives-passes-funding-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown/ to avoid government shutdown.
NBC News reported on Sept. 30 that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bipartisan funding bill to avoid a government shutdown but that the deal currently lacks additional defense aid for Ukraine.

⚡️Senators issue joint statement confirming Ukraine support https://kyivindependent.com/senators-issue-joint-statement-confirming-ukraine-support/
Following a passage of a bill to avoid a government shutdown, top U.S. Senate leaders issued a rare bipartisan statement affirming their commitment to Ukraine.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY - pictured above), Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and representatives of the appropriations committees said they expect the Senate will work "to ensure the U.S. government continues to provide critical and sustained security and economic support for Ukraine."

⚡️NATO announces additional peacekeeping forces https://kyivindependent.com/nato-announces-additional-peacekeeping-troops-in-kosovo/ in Kosovo.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Sept. 29 that the military alliance had approved additional peacekeeping forces in Kosovo after unrest along the Kosovo-Serbia border that left four people dead.

⚡️Russian soldier working with intelligence defects https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-soldier-working-with-ukraine-defects/ to Ukrainian forces.
A Russian soldier who had been working with Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) has defected to Ukrainian forces, the military intelligence said on Sept. 30.
The soldier, Daniil Alfyorov, had been working with Ukrainian intelligence since July and had successfully convinced 11 other Russian soldiers to defect to the Ukrainian side, Andriy Yusov, a HUR spokesman, said.

As of 8:00 p.m. on Sept. 29, 98,625 people have left Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia, a spokesperson for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Nazeli Baghdasaryan, said. https://kyivindependent.com/media-more-than-100-000-armenians-have-left-nagorno-karabakh/

⚡️ Borrell makes unannounced visit https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-visits-odesa-speaks-at-defense-industry-forum/ to Odesa.
"Odesa is a beautiful historic city. It should be in the headlines for its vibrant culture (and) spirit," EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell wrote on Twitter.

⚡️Russian drones hit civilian infrastructure (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drones-hit-civilian-infrastructure-in-donetsk-oblast-casualties-reported/) in Donetsk Oblast, casualties reported.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

[easier to view https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_wdrgjv1iyc?s=qNM8WbrqjO4]

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WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 1
■ High level of activity (strikes & engagements)
■airstrike record,most since Jun 28
■ Troop & equipment losses above 7-day average
■ MLRS, tanks, drones & vehicles above average
■ Record 7-day artillery losses

440 dead
30 artillery
11 tanks
1 jet.

UNITED 24 Media Telegram

The very first Defense Industries Forum has been successfully held. President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is on track to become one of the world's key producers of weapons and defense systems. This potential is no longer just a prospect; it has already started to be realized.
As of this evening, the forum has attracted 38 participating companies representing 19 countries from around the world. This demonstrates a growing interest in Ukraine's defense industry and its global significance.

⚡️The Czech Republic has announced its decision to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture CZ BREN 2 assault rifles. Additionally, the Czechs will provide assistance to Ukraine in establishing the production of ammunition. This cooperation in arms manufacturing reflects support for Ukraine's defense capabilities.

Ukrainians have made modifications to the British Challenger 2 tank by adding an additional protective sheet to the front of the vehicle. While Challenger 2 tanks are known for their high-quality armor, certain areas of the tank, such as the front, are considered to have vulnerabilities. These modifications aim to enhance the tank's protection in critical areas.

In the coming year, Ukraine plans to allocate $1.5 billion for the production of drones, long-range missiles, and other weapons, according to Prime Minister Shmyhal. The country is actively expanding its production capabilities, both in established sectors and in new technologies and developments. The Prime Minister also highlighted that Ukrainian-made weapons are solely being used to target objects in the Russian Federation.
However, it's important to note that during the year and a half of the large-scale war, Russia has damaged 37 Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises

Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted today that the residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed a year ago “made their choice—to be with their Fatherland”.

In Limassol, Cyprus, a protest rally was held by Ukrainians residing in Cyprus to express their indignation regarding the planned celebration of the anniversary of the annexation of territories in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions by Russia. Hundreds of concerned Ukrainians from various parts of the island gathered at the protest to voice their opposition to the commemoration.

Russian school textbooks show the "Patriot" air defense system as their own air defense system. [is this accurate, @Mb76?]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1708391451241943441 video President Zelensky posted on Defenders day

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇭🇺Hungary says that suspending OTP Bank's war sponsor status is not enough to unblock EU military aid to Ukraine. The Hungarian Foreign Ministry demands that the bank be permanently removed from the list

🇬🇧The UK may move the training program for the Ukrainian military to Ukraine.
New Defense Secretary Grant Shepps is discussing sending British instructors to Ukraine with military leaders, The Telegraph reports.

🇸🇰 In Slovakia, the pro-Russian Smer party, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, wins the parliamentary elections. The party won about 23% of the vote.
During the election campaign, Robert Fico promised to stop military aid to Ukraine and criticized sanctions against Russia.

⚡️The DIU successfully conducted a special operation called "Barynya," which resulted in the recruitment of a Russian career military officer.
Daniil Alfyorov, a Russian, said that he contacted the Ukrainian side thanks to the I Want to Live project.
During his cooperation with the DIU, he convinced 11 Russian servicemen to surrender.
Alferov was transported to the territory controlled by Ukraine by the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russians paint Tu-95MS strategic bombers at the Engels air base.
The satellite images are dated September 29 and were obtained by The War Zone.
It is possible that the silhouettes of the aircraft could be cut out of fabric or canvas, but most likely it is paint. One of the painted bombers even has tires on it, which should make it more realistic.

Seems Sunak has denied that training will be moved to Ukrainian soil. As ever lies and more lies from our Govt 😑

UK PM Sunak has rolled back on Shapps remarks saying the talks are not for the here and now.

It didn't take long for Shapps to open his mouth and put his foot in it!

Sorry @Igotjelly you beat me to it

The dangers of an incompetent man desperate to be relevant