Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Our GDP is falling, relative to inflation, its not a good metric to use, even at 2.5% they inc pensions.

If Ukraine isn't a wake up call, don't what is.

I thought Russia was making more in real terms than ever before thanks to oil sales to India China etc...

I don't understand our cosying up to India.

I thought Russia was making more in real terms than ever before thanks to oil sales to India China etc...

I'm confused about that too. Although it's clear there are payment problems due to complex rules within India and Russia itself. Apparently they're getting around it by using crypto to some degree. Binance claims to have left the Russian market but there are many other crypto platforms.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

September was a "record" month in terms of the number of attacks by the "Shahed".
During the month, the Russians launched 503 Iranian drones at Ukraine. This is more than the previous high of 413 attacks in May.

🇪🇪🇺🇸 Along with HIMARS, Estonia is purchasing ATACMS long-range missiles from the United States. They will be delivered in 2025.
In December last year, Estonia signed an agreement with the United States to purchase HIMARS launchers, missiles, and other necessary equipment. Magnus Saar, director of the country's defense investment center, said that this agreement also includes the supply of long-range ATACMS missiles.

🇸🇰 The leader of the Smer-SD party, which won the Slovak parliamentary elections, Robert Fico, reiterated his statement about his intention to stop providing aid to Ukraine.

💥 Yesterday, attack drones attacked the Smolensk Aircraft Plant in Russia, where Kh-59 missiles were manufactured, the GUR reported.
According to intelligence, three of the four UAVs hit the target, causing significant damage to the company's production facilities.
The Kh-59 air-to-surface missile is one of the missiles most often used by the occupiers to fire at military and civilian targets in Ukraine.

🇩🇰Denmark will open an office in Mykolaiv to deal with the reconstruction - Danish Foreign Ministry.

🇵🇱 Ukraine's Ambassador to Warsaw Vasyl Zvarych said that Poland was among the first to receive an invitation to the Defense Industries Forum held in Kyiv last Friday, but did not participate.
At the same time, the Polish government says that the largest state-owned defense concern, Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa, did not receive an invitation to the forum.

An extraordinary incident occurred yesterday at one of the checkpoints with the Republic of Belarus.
During the all-Ukrainian minute of silence, Belarusians lowered their flag.
I don't know whether it was an initiative of an individual soldier or a command from above, but it is a positive sign for us. Because there are people with honor and dignity among the military there, who may realize who the real threat to Belarus is. [90 second clip]

👑🇬🇧 Hackers attacked the official website of the British royal family.
The Russian hacker group Killnet claimed responsibility for the attack. A Sky News source said that the cybercriminals failed to access the systems or content of the royal family's website.

The reaction to Musk's post was not long in coming. In the comments, he was not only reminded that Zelensky was asking for help so that his people would not be raped and killed, but also that he himself was receiving huge subsidies from his country.

Indian refiners used yuan to pay for some Russian oil imports, official says. NEW DELHI, July 14 (Reuters) - Indian refiners have settled some payments for Russian oil imports in Chinese yuan, but the U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency for such payments, a senior government official said.14 Jul 2023

That makes it even more complicated as certainly (according to reports) some significant trades were in rupees. Sounds like a right mix and hodgepodge.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/india-russia-suspend-negotiations-settle-trade-rupees-sources-2023-05-04/

There. A few months ago now, the latest Ive been able to find is that they are still working on getting it to actually work.

Either way a friendly India to western interests, wouldn't trading with Russia, plenty of oil available elsewhere, albeit for more a greater cost, though if India wanted it, perhaps SA wouldn't cut production....

Now, the legislative push starts for additional military to Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-debates-ukraine-aid-pentagon-warns-money-running-low-2023-10-02/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2023

Key Takeaways:

• A prominent Russian milblogger and front-line unit commander claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky “saved” the Russian 31st Guards VDV Brigade, which was fighting south of Bakhmut, mirroring claims made by a much smaller milblogger about VDV units in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• A Russian “Storm Z” assault unit instructor speculated that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) removed Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy from commanding the Bakhmut direction due to his poor performance.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on October 2.
• Prominent actors in the Russian information space continue to speculate about the possible future of the Wagner Group under Rosgvardia.
• Interethnic tensions and claims about the superiority of Chechen “Akhmat” forces over regular Russian forces continue to generate controversy in the Russian information space.
• Russian forces conducted a small-scale Shahed-131/136 drone strike on Ukraine on the night of October 1-2 after Russian forces conducted a record number of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure in September 2023.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 2.
• The Russian “Vostok” Battalion continued to complain on October 1 that the Russian military command is not fulfilling its promises of having the unit fight as a second-echelon force and is not providing state awards.
• Russian occupation officials continued to transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of educational trips

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord warned the U.S. Congress that diminishing funds for Ukraine could cause delays in critical weapons and supply shipments, the Associated Press reported on Oct. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/ap-pentagon-running-out-of-money-for-ukraine/

⚡️US preparing https://kyivindependent.com/us-preparing-new-aid-package-for-ukraine/ new aid package for Ukraine.

⚡️Politico: White House more worried https://kyivindependent.com/politico-white-house-more-worried-about-corruption-in-ukraine-than-it-publicly-admits/ about corruption in Ukraine than it publicly admits. The document obtained by the media outlet outlines steps the U.S. is taking to help Ukraine tackle corruption and reform the country's military, financial, and education sectors, among others.

⚡️Romania will continue to assist Ukraine in terms of military aid, grain transit, as well Kyiv's aspirations to join the European Union, Romanian Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu said on Oct. 2, as reported by Ukrinform. https://kyivindependent.com/romania-vows-support-for-ukraines-grain-transit-eu-aspirations/

⚡️Ukraine receives https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-the-first-set-of-refurbished-leopard-tanks-from-poland/ first set of refurbished Leopard tanks from Poland after being repaired in Poland from battlefield damage, the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) announced on Twitter on Oct. 2.

Russian forces attacked warehouses of Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Oct. 2, causing damage to cables, transformers, and other electrical equipment, the company said on the Telegram messaging app. https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-russian-strikes-damaged-warehouses-in-dnipropetrovsk-oblast/

Ukrainian drone units supported by the "Army of Drones" initiative destroyed or damaged Russia’s 69 towed artillery pieces and 17 self-propelled howitzers from Sept. 25 to Oct. 2.

⚡️ Denmark backs creation of $21 billion Ukraine military support fund for the next 4 years within the framework of the European Peace Facility, Ukrinform reported on Oct. 2, citing Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-backs-creation-of-20-billion-ukraine-military-support-fund/

⚡️Denmark allocates https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-allocates-14-million-to-purchase-ammunition-for-ukraine/ $14 million to purchase ammunition for Ukraine. "The Ukrainians are still in a situation where they are acutely short of artillery ammunition"

⚡️Germany delivers https://kyivindependent.com/germany-delivers-ammunition-other-equipment-in-its-latest-aid-package-for-ukraine/ over 32,000 rounds of 40-mm ammunition, dozens of all-terrain and border protection vehicles & other military equipment to Ukraine as part of its latest aid package, the German government reported on Oct. 2.
The delivery also includes radio equipment for Leopard battle tanks, almost 100 Satcom terminals, over 1,000 infusion kits, a bridge-laying tank Beaver, and two mine-clearing tanks Wisent 1.

⚡️Kuleba: EU reaches consensus https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-reaches-consensus-on-ukraines-membership-bid/ on Ukraine's membership bid.
The European Union has reached a consensus regarding Ukraine's membership in the bloc, which is "only a matter of time," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Oct. 2, as reported by European Pravda.

⚡️Prosecutor General's Office: 504 Ukrainian https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-generals-office-504-ukrainian-children-killed-during-russias-full-scale-invasion-more-than-1-100-injured/ children killed during Russia's full-scale invasion, more than 1,100 injured.
More than 1,100 children have also sustained injuries with varying degrees of severity. [not including the occupied territories, afaik]

⚡️High Anti-Corruption Court provides https://kyivindependent.com/high-anti-corruption-court-provides-first-monetary-award-to-whistleblower/ first monetary award to whistleblower.
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) announced on Oct. 2 that it had ruled to pay Hr 13.3 million (about $360,000) to a whistleblower in the case of a $6 million bribe attempted by a former first deputy head of the Kyiv tax service back in 2020. [not a bad idea, a hefty reward to catch the giant criminals]

⚡️SBU: Sumy officials arrested https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-sumy-mayor-arrested-for-taking-58-000-bribe/ for taking $58,000 bribe

WARNING! In connection with the constant arrival of refined intelligence data for the past period, there was a need to adjust some positions of the enemy's total losses.

Total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 01.10.23 (approximate)
——————————————

UNITED24 Telegram

Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania have reached an agreement to establish a "green corridor" for the transit of Ukrainian grain to the port of Klaipeda in Lithuania, as reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Both Poland and Lithuania expressed their support for this control mechanism, considering it a constructive step by Ukraine.

🇪🇺 The European Parliament has passed a resolution regarding the review of the EU budget for 2021-2027, which includes the establishment of a dedicated Ukrainian fund amounting to 50 billion euros.

🇦🇲 The Armenian Parliament has ratified the Rome Statute, committing to implement the decisions of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The Russians are building a new road from Rostov-on-Don to temporarily occupied Mariupol. Earlier it became known that the Russians are trying to build a direct railway connection with Mariupol, Volnovakha and Donetsk.

Norway has joined the 11th package of EU sanctions against Russia. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway has announced that these new restrictions against Russia include additional bans on transit through Russia for goods that could contribute to the Russian defense sector's development and enhance its technological potential, along with goods applicable to the aerospace industry. It's worth noting that Norway has introduced sanctions with some exceptions, such as the prohibition of tankers involved in oil transshipment from Russian vessels from entering EU ports when there is reason to believe they are involved in the violation of the ban on importing Russian oil into the EU. Norway's Foreign Ministry is still considering the best way to implement this specific ban.

A Ukrainian tanker contacted Uralvagonzavod for assistance with a malfunctioning captured T-72B3 tank. However, it wasn't until the end of the conversation that he revealed his identity as a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to Forbes, the Ukrainian tanker faced technical issues that were unfamiliar to Ukrainian specialists, including oil leaks, non-functional compressors, and a faulty electrical turret rotation mechanism.
In a bold move, the tanker decided to directly reach out to the manufacturer of the tank, Uralvagonzavod. The hotline connected him with one of the tank's designers, who provided guidance in resolving the problems. During the consultation, the fighter jokingly confessed to the designers that he was Ukrainian and that the tank had been captured in battle near Izyum the previous year.

The Ukrainian national team will not participate in the Youth World Judo Championship in Portugal due to the inclusion of Russian athletes in the tournament under neutral status.

War Diaries: Unheard Voices of Ukrainian Children is an exhibition in Amsterdam dedicated to the personal stories of children and adolescents who have witnessed the war in Ukraine and documented it.

"We apologize" – a road sign bearing an inscription in Ukrainian, has emerged above the intersection of Louise Blachy Square in Budapest.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Poland's Minister of State Assets Jacek Sasin has officially apologized for his previous false statement that Ukraine had not invited Polish companies to the Defense Industry Forum in Kyiv.

Pentagon has https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-plays-down-u-s-funding-snag-4846cfff* $5.2 billion left in its coffers for weapons and other security assistance for Ukraine - WSJ.*
This amount is roughly equivalent to the cost of weapons that the Biden administration has sent to Ukraine over the past six months.
But, according to the publication, this money may only last for a few months.
The account, which the US used for a long-term program to modernize the Ukrainian army and make it more compatible with NATO, is empty, the WSJ writes.

The SBU neutralized one of the largest intelligence Russian networks during the war: 13 informants were detained in Mykolaiv Oblast
The attackers gathered intelligence about the locations of bases and movements of the Defense Forces in the territory of the southern region.

Volodymyr Zelensky told the EU foreign ministers that the pause after the 11th package of European sanctions has dragged on too long. This allows Russia to gain time and increase resources for war.
The President is asking for sanctions against the Russian nuclear industry and other sectors of the economy, as well as tighter restrictions against Iran in sensitive industries, including the import of equipment and chemicals.

Three Aeroflot planes crash in Russia in one day - The Moscow Times.
As the newspaper emphasizes, Russian airlines' planes have become twice as likely to break down, particularly in flight. From January to August 2023, more than 120 such cases were recorded, while in the previous five years, an average of 55 occurred over the same period.
Russian airlines fly mostly Airbus and Boeing aircraft, which are banned from doing business in Russia. More than 40% of these aircraft belonged to foreign leasing companies that did not receive their property back after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Most of the aircraft continue to fly, although they are cut off from important software updates and maintenance needed to ensure their airworthiness.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained Sumy mayor Oleksandr Lysenko for bribery this evening. The director of the city's infrastructure department was detained along with him. They are currently being searched.

🤡Russia's Investigative Committee has accused Kyrylo Budanov, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk, Navy Commander Oleksiy Neizhpapa, and 383rd Separate Regiment Commander of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Serhiy Burdenyuk of terrorism.

Three Aeroflot planes crash in Russia in one day - The Moscow Times.

I think something has got lost in translation with that headline .but there's certainly no doubt Aeroflot had some problems yesterday.

https://en.rua.gr/2023/10/03/in-just-one-day-on-october-2-three-airliners-of-a-russian-airline-broke-down-aeroflot/

You and a few other aeronautical types saw this coming a long time ago didn't you.

Well.....

I have to say looking at what might have gone on, chucking in the possible hyperbole and allowing for use of the lazy journalists aviation story generator (which has now seems to be in global use) I have to admit that on rare occasions I've seen similar days at western airlines unencumbered by sanctions...i.e. multiple technical delays....

However being serious, yes, the lack of support from Boeing, Airbus etc is bound to eventually cause very serious problems - Quite when the effects caused by the lack of it will really kick in and will it really cause three crashes in a day...don't know..

Oh:

http://www.radans.net/jens/planestory.html

.... please tell me journalists don't actually use that .... !

No....but sometimes it can look as if they have...😊

There's a bit more clarity on the ATACMS version being sent. Ukraine will get the cluster munition version first, which is likely what they've requested. As I posted earlier, they're more effective against targets like troop assembly areas and airfields than the unitary warhead version.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-army-ready-to-send-atacms-to-ukraine-fast-1696331528.html

Looks like McCarthy might really be given the Order of the Boot?

it's terrifying just how much influence the right wingers have, if so.

I think that depends how the Democrats choose to vote, doesn't it? They could save him if they chose.

Such a bizarre situation.

McCarthy is accused of doing a deal with Democrats to keep the Gov running so a small minority of Rep want to kick him out in a vote in which they will be totally reliant on Dem votes.

I dont think ironic covers it.

That's not exactly the situation. The vote for speaker is open to anyone who is present from both parties. It's almost always a party-line vote, as Democrats want one of their own as speaker and vice versa. So, under normal circumstances, Democrats would never vote for McCarthy.

The motion to vacate is simply a vote to remove McCarthy from the post. Democrats would normally be happy to do that, so if the nutters can get most Democrats and some Republicans to go along, they can vote him out.

This is not a sure thing, by any means. Democrats could help McCarthy by simply voting "present", but they will want something from him in return for doing so, and he is not popular with the Democrats, so most would be happy to send him packing.

The situation is a bit bizarre but somewhat more complicated than it looks on the surface. And the nutters have yet to suggest who might want the job if they manage to sack McCarthy.

By the way, he would retain his position as a congressional representative from his district in California, he would just lose his job as Speaker of the House, which is currently more bother than it's worth. And many Republicans think he did the right thing by compromising with the Democrats to pass the CR and keep the government open, as does most of the general public.

And he’s gone….. what a strange beast US politics is!

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1709197689689084187 Ukrainian soldiers say what they are fighting for and ask Russian soldiers what are they fighting for

Such worrying times. Support waning for Ukraine on several fronts. Feels like the US is a mess. Would be happy for @MissConductUS to reassure it’s not as bad as the press makes out. Cannot believe some of the nutters that get elected and pretty much blame FB for breaking democracy.